967
WTNT41 KNHC 210240
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

Fay is beginning to feel the effects of increasing northwesterly
shear over its circulation, with satellite images showing its
outflow pattern becoming restricted in that quadrant. However, an
ASCAT-C pass received after the prior advisory showed a peak wind
retrieval of 53 kt, and that the center was a little further south
and east of what was previously estimated. Assuming some wind
undersampling of this instrument along with a slight increase in the
DMINT and DPRINT intensity estimates, the initial intensity is being
nudged up to 60 kt for this advisory, making Fay just shy of
hurricane intensity.

Fay appears to have turned east-southeastward tonight, with an
estimated motion of 130/4 kt. Over the next day or so, a building
ridge to the northwest should continue to turn Fay southward and
then southwestward with gradually increasing forward motion. The NHC
track forecast this cycle was shifted a bit southward compared to
the previous one, but converges close to the previous forecast
track in 60-72 h. This track forecast remains in good agreement with
the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids.

The tropical storm is just about out of time to intensify further,
though it remains possible Fay could briefly become a hurricane
tonight before the northwesterly vertical wind shear becomes
prohibitively strong from an amplifying upper-level ridge to the
northwest. This shear will ultimately import very dry mid-level air
into Fay's core, causing the cyclone to quickly decouple in the
next 24-36 h. The global and hurricane-regional model guidance
remains in good agreement on Fay struggling to produce organized
convection by 48-60 h, and that continues to be when the NHC
forecast indicates the cyclone becoming post-tropical. The NHC
intensity forecast is largely an update of the prior one beyond the
next 12 h, in good agreement with the intensity aid consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 34.1N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 33.7N 31.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 30.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 29.6N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z 29.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


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