606
WTNT41 KNHC 202035
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in
the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery.
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops
have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of
convection. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix
was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has
been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates.

The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for
additional convective development and an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for
about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear
should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone.
This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC
intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant
low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The
intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance
in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations
due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still
possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight.

Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with
the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to
mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This
ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually
accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC
forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and
GDMI track aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 34.4N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


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