WTPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 27.8N 138.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 138.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 29.1N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.6N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.5N 138.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 34.8N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 37.4N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 39.9N 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 44.1N 166.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1N 138.0E.
19SEP26. TYPHOON 24W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 980 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY DUJUAN IS PROPAGATING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE STR AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
INITIATING A RECURVATURE VECTOR TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAT PLACES THE
SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAINLAND JAPAN. THROUGH
TAU 36, THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WILL HOVER NEAR 65 KTS WITHIN
A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. SLIGHT DYNAMIC RE-
DEEPENING IS FEASIBLE SHORTLY AFTER, ASSISTED BY AN ACCELERATED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW FLUX AND DIRECT TRANSIT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
KUROSHIO CURRENT. DYNAMICAL GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY COCOON FROM THE SURROUNDING DRY AIR. AROUND
TAU 60, RAPIDLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY TROPOSPHERIC AIR, AND SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATING VWS
WILL DEPRESS THE VORTEX INTO A TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS ANTICIPATED TO ENGAGE, WITH THE ACCELERATING
SYSTEM COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS IT POSITIONS ITSELF
UNDERNEATH POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY JET STREAM ALOFT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REVEAL GOOD
AGREEMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY AN IMPROVED 40 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT
THE CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA) TO YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD RISES TO 110 NM, WHILE THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. REGARDING INTENSITY,
THE GENERAL ENVELOPE RESOLVES TYPHOON-STRENGTH RETENTION OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. DIVERGENCE EXPANDS SUBSTANTIALLY AT TAU 60, OPENING TO A 40
KTS SPREAD SPANNING 45 TO 85 KTS. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SCENARIOS
PROJECT CONTINUOUS WEAKENING, WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL SOLUTIONS
(HAFS, COAMPS-TC, AND GFS) DEPICT A SHORT-LIVED RE-INTENSIFICATION
PHASE REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC PROJECTION REACHING A PEAK OF 75
KTS AROUND TAU 60. ACCORDINGLY, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY OUTLOOK
CONVERGES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
NNNN


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