WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 25.4N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
215 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 26.2N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 27.6N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 28.8N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 30.5N 137.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 32.6N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 35.2N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 40.2N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 141.2E.
18SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 980 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 24W (DUJUAN) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IMMINENTLY WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 12-24, TRACK
SPEEDS WILL SLOW AS 24W APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. AT AROUND
TAU 36, 24W WILL CROSS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST. DUJUAN WILL REMAIN ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FROM
TAU 36-48 THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS 24W TRACKS
POLEWARD, IT WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IT
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM JUST AFTER TAU 72, ALONG WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS, WHICH WILL INDUCE
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. CONCURRENTLY WITH INCREASING SHEAR,
24W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET PROMPTING WEAK
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. IN RESPONSE TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, 24W
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 72 AND
COMPLETE TRANSITION NO LATER THAN TAU 96. REGARDING INTENSITY, 24W
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH ITS PEAK AT TAU 12-36.
24W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS A RESULT OF THE
ENVIRONMENT, ULTIMATELY COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT
AROUND 50 KTS.

NNNN


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