WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 23.8N 148.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 148.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 25.7N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 26.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 27.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 30.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 33.4N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 45.7N 159.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 147.7E.
17SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 404
NM EAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 171200Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 24W (DUJUAN) WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 WHILE THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS
AND THE STEERING STR SHIFTS EQUATORWARD. AS DUJUAN APPROACHES THE
RIDGE AXIS, SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL SLOW PARTICULARLY BETWEEN TAU 24-60.
24W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS JUST BEFORE TAU 60 AND BEGIN
ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, DUJUAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM
AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR, AND JET INTERACTION
INDUCING WEAK THERMAL ADVECTION. REGARDING INTENSITY, 24W IS EXPECTED
TO VERY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH ITS PEAK AT TAU 48-60. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH TAU
60, THOUGH THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND SHEAR MAY PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN STAGNATE INTENSIFICATION ENTIRELY. WIND SHEAR
IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON INTENSITY, AND 24W
IS STILL FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH AS OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION REMAINS THE STORM'S ASYMMETRIC CORE. AROUND TAU 48-60, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SLIGHTLY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, CONTRIBUTING TO THE INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AS
24W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. DUJUAN WILL REMAIN AT TROPICAL-STORM
STRENGTH WHILE IT UNDERGOES AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
24W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 96 AND
COMPLETE TRANSITION AFTER TAU 120.

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