WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 149.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 149.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.0N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 23.5N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.8N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 25.5N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.7N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 28.4N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 32.9N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 39.2N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 149.5E.
16SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 24W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363
NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 24W IS TRAVELING POLEWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED EAST OF HONSHU. THE
POLEWARD MOTION FOLLOWS A TURN DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE VORTEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AT TAU
12 AS THE STR MIGRATES WESTWARD. FROM TAU 60 TO TAU 96, TS 24W WILL
TURN POLEWARD, CROSS THE AXIS OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR, AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
INCLUDING VERY WARM SST AND LOW VWS, WILL SUPPORT STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FROM TAU 12 TO TAU 36,
VWS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS, CAUSING THE INTENSITY TREND TO
LEVEL OFF. AFTER TAU 36, TS 24W WILL TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, ALLOWING FOR RENEWED INTENSIFICATION DESPITE THE MODERATE
VWS. AFTER TAU 72, A WEAKENING TREND WILL COMMENCE AS THE
UNFAVORABLE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VWS MORE THAN OFFSET THE
DEVELOPMENTAL BENEFITS OF STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. INCREASING
BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL SUPPORT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH
WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TAU 120.

NNNN


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