WTPN21 PGTW 121330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//

RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 109.9E TO 17.9N 105.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 109.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.6N 110.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.7E, APPROXIMATELY 104 NM
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC REMAINS
BROAD AND ELONGATED, WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION LIKELY EXTENDING OVER LAND. CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER CONSOLIDATION WITH LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD, SKIRTING THE COAST OF VIETNAM,
POTENTIALLY REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRITERIA DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE BROAD
SYSTEM CAN ORGANIZE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL IN VIETNAM AND TRANSITS
INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131330Z.//
NNNN


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