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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2319

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 00:40:08 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 210039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210039
    OHZ000-210215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2319
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0739 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

    Areas affected...portions of southwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 210039Z - 210215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A locally enhanced wind damage threat is evolving across
    portions of southwest Ohio. Although the current thinking is the
    threat should remain too isolated in space and time for a severe
    thunderstorm watch, the area will continued to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...A well established bowing segment is quickly moving
    east-southeast across portions of southwest Ohio. Recent radar
    imagery from Wilmington, OH, (KILN) shows inbound velocities around
    65 mph at 250m above radar level.

    This activity is occurring along a residual surface boundary, with
    an unstable airmass in place along and south of this boundary
    (MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg), coinciding with a sufficiently
    sheared airmass (effective-layer shear around 30-35 knots) to
    sustain thunderstorm intensity for at least another 1-2 hours. Given
    this, the potential for damaging winds appears to be increasing
    across portions of Greene, Warren, Clinton, and Fayette counties.

    With time, the loss of diurnal heating should sufficiently weaken
    low-level lapse rates such that damaging thunderstorm winds become
    increasingly sporadic. However, the potential for a significant wind
    gust or two or significant wind damage will remain until such time.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 09/21/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5JDL37k0tFyGtc0c2GYzgJ2sc4b7cjDqrjzh9HDTiz6gjYExAMlGiJKoPzJv-eRbZUBLkflnUix2H4szJMo_cViKa0c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...

    LAT...LON 39838425 39868388 39728329 39578302 39368298 39178313
    39118345 39218401 39408435 39638442 39838425

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)