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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2317

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 23:13:30 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 202313
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202312
    KSZ000-COZ000-210045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0612 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern/southeastern Colorado and
    extreme west-central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673...

    Valid 202312Z - 210045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 673
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging hail will be possible for the next 1-2 hours.
    Additional thunderstorms capable of large hail are possible this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...A mature supercell continues to track southeast across
    the Plains of eastern Colorado this afternoon. This supercell has a
    history of producing very large hail (in excess of 2.5"). The
    environment along and ahead of this supercell remains conducive for
    maintaining its current intensity given effective-layer shear around
    45 knots and MUCAPE between 1500-2000 J/kg. Absent the development
    of additional thunderstorms that may destructively interfere, the
    current supercell should continue to pose a threat for
    large-to-very-large hail over the next couple of hours, with overall
    magnitude of the hail size governed by storm-scale processes.

    With time this afternoon and into the evening, the expectation is
    that the boundary layer will cool sufficiently with the loss of
    diurnal heating that a gradual weakening of the supercell should
    commence. As such, the overall magnitude of any potential hail
    should wane as well.

    Additional thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds
    are still possible behind this initial supercell and that potential
    will continue to be monitored.

    ..Marsh.. 09/20/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5czpKlxmmsKIoEwzPD5WVml5hFkwgGo3w2Fcj_1tfLB3fovgqDfN3ezhYi2maHKzI1D-GxGWjALo1rXb1NkGqgsQqxo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38810318 39080296 39060248 38880221 38630199 38240191
    38040205 38020250 38280291 38640309 38810318

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)