ACUS11 KWNS 201849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201849
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-202115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2316
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...northeast/eastern Colorado...far western Kansas and
southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201849Z - 202115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are likely to develop over
northeast Colorado, with large hail probable. A few severe gusts
could occur by early evening.

DISCUSSION...A prominent vorticity max aloft is moving across WY,
with southern lobe and cooling aloft spreading across northern CO.
Visible imagery shows towering CU and initial convection over the
Palmer Divide, and over far northeast CO south of a wind shift
related to ongoing weak thunderstorms.

Continued heating along with a gradual veering of surface winds will
lead to further destabilization. Given cool temperatures
aloft/steepening lapse rates, mid 50s F dewpoints and effective
deep-layer shear over 40 kt, a supercell or two may occur. Max hail
size over 2.00" may be possible as cells generally track
southeastward toward western KS by early evening. Left splitting
cells may also produce hail into southwest NE. Damaging wind gusts
also appear possible if more of a cluster or aggregating outflows
develop.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 09/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5l8TnhGm2_3V1uthQ0aCC3VPoLQzU1fBKdrhiyoEXltYK6aANBAS1lerjsHPCw8rLCaN2q8D8HO7aShT5yf3lYOcEIA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40220334 40460298 40730285 40840268 40980228 41000202
40900172 40610145 39830141 38920139 38430141 38290190
38350236 38430280 38750360 39090405 39400426 39640424
39860407 40220334

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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