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  • DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:33:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 080632
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 080632

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0132 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

    ...Discussion...

    An upper trough will migrate across the Northeast on Thursday, while
    a second upper trough digs southward across the northwestern U.S.
    Stronger flow associated with these features will remain confined to
    the northern Rockies vicinity and over New England. High pressure
    will build over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region in the wake of a
    prior cold frontal passage. A seasonally moist boundary layer will
    be in place from the central/southern High Plains through the southern/southeastern U.S. Pockets of stronger heating and modest destabilization across the warm sector will support scattered
    thunderstorm development. However, generally weak vertical shear
    will limit organized severe potential, especially given a lack of
    focus for severe storm development.

    The exception may be with a strong storm or two across the
    central/southern High Plains in a post-frontal upslope flow regime.
    A stalled front will become diffuse across the area on Thursday, but
    vertically veering wind profiles could result in some modestly
    enhanced vertical shear. Some guidance shows early day convection
    and cloud cover across this area, resulting in uncertainty in storm
    coverage during the afternoon and evening. Furthermore, lapse rates
    will remain modest and low-level flow will be weak, precluding
    severe probabilities at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 18:50:32 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 081850
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 081849

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026

    Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday.

    ...Discussion...
    As a mid-level trough moves into the western Atlantic on Thursday,
    surface high pressure will build into the Midwest/Great Lakes in its
    wake. South of this high pressure center a front will extend from
    Virginia to the central Plains. An expansive area of precipitation
    is expected along this front at the beginning of the period which
    should result in lesser instability, particularly east of the
    Appalachians. Farther west, moderate instability is expected near
    the front from the Lower Ohio Valley to the southern High Plains.
    Mid-level flow (and thus deep-layer shear) will be weak across much
    of this zone. Therefore, greater instability and storm clustering
    will likely be necessary for a marginal severe weather threat. This
    may occur across portions of the Ozarks or the southern High Plains,
    but the signal is weak at this time. Therefore, no severe weather
    probabilities are warranted.

    A mid-level trough will translate quickly eastward across the
    Northwest on Thursday with ascent overspreading north-central
    Montana by Thursday night. A few fast-moving storms are expected
    across north-central Montana late Thursday night and early Friday
    morning amid weak instability. Despite the dynamic system, weak
    instability and unfavorable diurnal timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

    ..Bentley.. 09/08/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 06:25:50 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090625
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090624

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0124 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
    Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
    and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
    cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
    through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
    Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
    hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
    northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
    advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
    midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
    moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
    shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
    may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
    Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
    south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
    Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
    with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 07:00:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 090700
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 090659

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0159 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

    CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Upper Midwest into Nebraska...

    An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern Plains and
    Upper Midwest on Friday. This will result in enhanced westerly flow
    and cooling aloft across the region, mainly after 00z. A surface
    cold front is forecast to develop southeast across the Dakotas
    through the afternoon, and continue east/southeast across the Upper
    Midwest and portions of the central Plains through the nighttime
    hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s dewpoints
    northward across the MO Valley into MN ahead of the front. Northward
    advection of low-level moisture beneath cooling aloft/steepening
    midlevel lapse rates will lead to at least a narrow corridor of
    moderate destabilization during the late afternoon into evening from central/eastern NE into MN. Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical
    shear will be focused across MN. With southward extent, instability
    may be greater, but shear and large-scale ascent will be weaker.
    Additionally, warmer midlevel temperatures may persist further
    south, resulting in capping and a more conditional severe risk.
    Large hail and damaging gusts appear to be the predominant hazard
    with storms from late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

    ..Leitman.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 19:32:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 091932
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 091930

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
    DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Discussion...
    A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
    Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
    pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
    eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
    strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
    layer into central MN.

    Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
    moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
    kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
    late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
    become linear along the advancing cold front.

    Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
    initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
    will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
    hatching for hail.

    A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
    eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
    Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
    storms move northeast across MN.

    ..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:22:20 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 092022
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 092020

    Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026

    Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
    DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Upper
    Midwest late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

    ...Discussion...
    A leading shortwave trough will move into the Northern Plains on
    Friday, as an upper low drops south along the Pacific Northwest. A
    pre-frontal trough will develop into northern MN, extending into
    eastern SD and central NE by late afternoon. Ahead of this trough,
    strong heating will occur from NE into SD, with a cooler boundary
    layer into central MN.

    Temperatures aloft will cool with the upper wave, resulting in
    moderately steep lapse rates aloft. Midlevel wind speeds of 20-40
    kt, combined with low-level southerlies (including 40 kt at 850 mb
    late in the day) will favor a few supercells initially before storms
    become linear along the advancing cold front.

    Forecast soundings indicate large hail will be likely with the
    initial cellular activity, though shear in the mid to upper levels
    will not be particularly strong. As such, will not add any sig
    hatching for hail.

    A brief tornado may occur with initial supercells, particularly from
    eastern SD into western MN where low-level shear will be strongest.
    Otherwise, damaging winds will be possible through the evening as
    storms move northeast across MN.

    ..Jewell.. 09/09/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 06:27:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 100626
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 100625

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0125 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
    across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

    ...Central Plains to southern IA/northern MO...

    Broad upper troughing will overspread the Great Lakes to the
    Northeast while shortwave upper ridging develops over the high
    Plains ahead of another upper trough moving into the Northwest. This
    pattern is will keep any stronger westerly flow aloft across the
    northern tier of the U.S. However, a cold front is expected to
    extend from the western Great Lakes into northern KS by midday. The
    front will gradually move south/southeast across IA into northern
    MO, while the western extent of the boundary stalls and weakens over
    KS. A very moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface
    boundary from KS into the Mid-MS Valley while a plume of steep
    midlevel lapse rates spread eastward across the region. This will
    result in a corridor of moderate to strong instability from central
    KS into southern IA/northern MO. Vertical shear will be modest, but
    sufficient for at least transient organized convection. Hail and
    strong wind gusts will be possible with any storms that can develop
    within the weakly forced regime along the front. Some guidance
    suggests additional convection may develop along the stalled
    boundary across KS during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly
    low-level jet increases. If this occurs, some potential for MCS
    development will exist.

    ..Leitman.. 09/10/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 19:04:28 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 101904
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 101903

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0203 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

    Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO
    NORTHERN MISSOURI...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
    across parts of Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

    ...Discussion...
    A large upper low/trough will progress eastward across northern
    Manitoba and Ontario, with stronger flow aloft over the Northern
    Plains and Upper Great Lakes. Much of that area will become stable
    due to high pressure building southward into NE/IA.

    The wind shift with the associated cold front will push into KS and
    northern MO, beneath the southern fringe of the 30 kt midlevel
    westerlies. At the surface, strong heating will occur south of the
    cold front, with gradual height rises.

    While predictability is low, isolated strong to perhaps severe
    storms cannot be ruled out near the cold front where mid 60s F
    dewpoints will persist, and CIN should be minimal at peak heating.
    MUCAPE of 2000+ J/kg seems reasonable, and the steep lapse rate
    profiles along with winds lightly veering with height should support
    locally strong to severe gusts with multicellular storm mode. It is
    uncertain how many storms may form due to the upper ridging.

    ..Jewell.. 09/10/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 07:32:18 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 110731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 110730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
    SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
    UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER CORRIDOR FROM NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF
    THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather
    appears possible across parts of the Northeast into Ohio Valley, and
    across parts of the north central Great Plains, Sunday into Sunday
    night.

    ...Discussion...
    An initially notable mid-level low inland of the Pacific Northwest
    coast by 12Z Sunday is forecast to remain progressive through this
    period, though it may slowly begin to devolve into an open trough
    while accelerating across the northern U.S. Rockies in response to a
    short wave digging into northwestern portions of the Canadian
    Prairies. Within the downstream westerlies, models indicate that
    short wave ridging will build across the northern U.S. Great Plains
    and adjacent Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest/adjacent
    northwestern Ontario, while downstream troughing digs across Quebec
    through the lower Great Lakes region.

    The primary surface cyclone associated with eastern troughing is
    forecast to migrate from northern Quebec into the Labrador Sea by
    late Sunday night. As it does, the trailing cold front probably
    will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late
    Sunday afternoon, before overspreading the northern Atlantic
    Seaboard through upper Ohio Valley by the end of the period.
    Westward through the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys into the
    central Great Plains, it appears that this front may stall near or
    just south of the stronger westerlies.

    ...Parts of western New England into the Ohio Valley...
    Models vary concerning the degree of pre-frontal destabilization and
    the extent to which this may coincide with strengthening of westerly
    flow in the 700-500 mb layer, downstream of the digging short wave
    trough. However, particularly to the lee of the lower Great Lakes
    toward the northern Mid Atlantic vicinity, it appears that forcing
    for ascent will become increasingly conducive to at least scattered thunderstorm development by or shortly after peak daytime heating.
    As this occurs, developing storms will probably be accompanied by at
    least some risk for damaging wind gusts before weakening Sunday
    evening.

    ...North central Great Plains/Middle Missouri Valley vicinity...
    The degree to which cool/stable boundary-layer air remains
    entrenched across much of Nebraska into parts of northern Kansas, to
    the south of the westerlies and beneath a remnant plume of warm
    elevated mixed-layer air, remains unclear. Between the cool
    boundary layer, which may be relatively shallow, and the base of the
    capping elevated mixed layer, it does appear that a seasonably moist
    air mass retreating northward through the region will contribute to
    moderate to large CAPE.

    Although notable spread exists within/among the various model
    output, there appears potential for at least isolated to widely
    scattered strong to severe storm development in moistening
    southeasterly low-level flow across and to the southwest of the
    Black Hills vicinity by late Sunday afternoon, with the approach of
    the short wave trough. Subsequent development eastward into the
    Great Plains remains more uncertain, but, by late Sunday night,
    stronger storm development seems most likely to focus on the nose of
    a strengthening southerly low-level jet, near the northeastern
    periphery of the plume of elevated mixed-layer air, across/northeast
    of the middle Missouri Valley. This may be accompanied by at least
    a risk for severe hail.

    ..Kerr.. 09/11/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 19:22:34 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 111922
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 111921

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0221 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

    Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong storms accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather
    may occur across parts of the Northeast, and across parts of the
    north central Great Plains Sunday into Sunday night.

    ...Ohio into the Northeast...
    A large upper low/trough will push across eastern Canada on Sunday,
    with a strong speed max aloft spreading across the Great Lakes late
    in the day. A cold front will push toward the OH Valley and Lower
    Great Lakes late in the day, with a moist and marginally unstable
    air mass ahead of it. Areas of heating and lift near the boundary
    should support scattered afternoon/evening storms, and deep-layer
    shear of 30 to perhaps 40 kt could support a degree of organization.
    Lapse rates aloft appear to be poor overall, suggesting only a
    Marginal Risk of damaging gusts or hail will exist.

    ...Northern Plains...
    High pressure will move from the northern Plains to the Upper Great
    Lakes as shortwave ridging occurs over the Plains during the day. A
    compact yet deep upper low is then forecast to move into the
    northern Rockies, with height falls increasing over the northern
    High Plains Sunday night.

    The steeper low-level lapse rates will be confined to the higher
    terrain from east-central WY to the Front Range in CO, with
    generally stable low levels to the east due to high pressure. After
    a days worth of heating, isolated surface-based storms may occur
    late over eastern WY, with additional activity developing within the
    warm advection regime as the low-level jet increases over the
    central Plains. The overall threat appear minimal, and likely in the
    form of marginal hail.

    ..Jewell.. 09/11/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 07:15:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 120715
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 120714

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO
    MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER
    MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
    for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central
    Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

    ...Discussion...
    Downstream of weak mid/upper troughing continuing to slowly dig
    across the Pacific coast, models indicate that mid/upper ridging
    (centered across the Southeast) may become increasingly prominent
    across the southern Great Plains into the lower Great Lakes and
    northern Mid Atlantic Seaboard through this period. To the north of
    this ridging, and in advance of a short wave impulse digging through
    the Canadian Prairies, a notable remnant mid-level cyclonic
    circulation is forecast to accelerate more rapidly east-northeast of
    the northern U.S. Rockies, across the international border into
    northwestern Ontario by late Monday night. It appears that this
    will be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis, and considerable strengthening of south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric wind
    fields across much of the northern U.S. Great Plains through Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region.

    While an associated increase in vertical shear will contribute to an environment conditionally supportive of organized severe weather
    potential, destabilization within the warm sector remains much more
    uncertain. There does remain a general consensus among the various
    model output that a northward retreating near-surface baroclinic
    zone may provide the primary focus for stronger convective
    development, generally near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
    from parts of eastern Nebraska northeastward toward the Upper
    Midwest. However, even if the maintenance of a relatively cold,
    stable boundary layer along this zone, as depicted in the latest NAM
    forecast soundings, is too extreme, it remains unclear the extent to
    which thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to the risk for
    severe weather.

    ..Kerr.. 09/12/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:13:56 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 121913
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 121912

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

    Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk
    for severe weather, appears possible across parts of the central
    Great Plains into Upper Midwest late Monday through Monday night.

    ...Discussion...
    A mid-level trough will move across the northern Plains on Monday
    with a strengthening 60-70 knot mid-level jet streak. The surface
    pattern will feature a surface low across the Canadian Prairies and
    a secondary weaker surface low across the central Plains. A moist
    airmass will advect northward to the east of the surface trough with
    mid to upper 60s dewpoints advecting into Nebraska and Iowa.

    Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
    across eastern South Dakota and Minnesota amid moderate isentropic
    ascent. The primary forecast concern for Monday will be northward
    progression of the surface boundary across eastern Nebraska and
    Iowa. Guidance varies with the northward recovery in the wake of
    morning activity, but forecast soundings in regions where this
    recovery does occur show a conditional supercell environment with
    the threat for all severe weather hazards.

    Given the influence of morning convection, the exact location of the
    greatest threat will likely shift in the coming days. However, given
    that most guidance showed a convective signal aligned with a
    conditionally favorable supercell environment in the vicinity of
    eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, added a small Slight Risk across
    this region to account for this threat.

    An elevated hail threat may persist into Monday evening farther
    northeast given a strong low-level jet and moderate elevated
    instability. Some surface based storm threat could continue into the
    overnight hours along the boundary, but most guidance shows storms
    north of the boundary during the overnight period.

    Storms will likely form within the well-mixed environment across
    eastern Colorado and western Kansas Monday afternoon. Weak shear
    should limit storm organization, but strong heating and steep lapse
    rates may support isolated severe wind gusts.

    ..Bentley.. 09/12/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 07:05:48 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 130705
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 130704

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
    AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT
    LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to
    southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley
    Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for
    locally damaging wind gusts.

    ...Discussion...
    A deamplifying mid-level short wave trough and associated surface
    cyclone are forecast to continue an east-northeastward migration
    through this period, generally across the remainder of northwestern
    Ontario through much of northern Quebec by late Tuesday night. In
    the wake of the cyclone, an initial low-level baroclinic zone across
    the lower Great Lakes region through the lower Missouri Valley and
    central Great Plains may make some southward progression, before
    stalling and perhaps retreating northward beneath the building
    northwestern periphery of prominent ridging still centered across
    the Southeast. There is variance among the guidance concerning this
    latter development, and the evolution of digging upstream mid-level
    troughing across the northern Intermountain Region and Pacific
    Coast.

    ...Southern Great Lakes through central Great Plains...
    Mainly where mid-level heights remain suppressed, prior to the onset
    of the mid-level height rises, coincident with daytime
    boundary-layer destabilization along and southeast of the slow
    moving frontal zone, a corridor of increasing, scattered
    thunderstorm development appears possible through mid to late
    Tuesday afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates may support the
    evolution of moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+
    J/kg, near the modest southern fringe of the mid-level westerlies,
    which may still include speeds of 30+ kts in the 700-500 mb layer.
    A warm layer in mid/upper levels may tend to suppress large hail,
    but thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep lapse rates of
    potential wet-bulb temperatures in lower/mid-levels could contribute
    to a few downbursts and developing cold pools with a few strong
    gusts into Tuesday evening.

    ..Kerr.. 09/13/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 19:26:22 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 131926
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 131925

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

    Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor south to
    southwest of the Great Lakes through the lower Missouri Valley
    Tuesday afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for
    locally damaging wind gusts.

    ...Discussion...
    A mid-level trough will move into Ontario on Tuesday with the
    mid-level ridge building in its wake across the Midwest and into the
    Upper Midwest. Beneath this ridge, a cold front will move slowly
    southeastward from southern Iowa and northern Kansas at the
    beginning of the period, to northern Oklahoma to central Missouri by
    the end of the period. Dewpoints will increase into the low to mid
    70s south of the front with weak to moderate instability
    anticipated. Forcing will be somewhat nebulous given the rising
    heights aloft and weak convergence along the slow-moving, decaying
    front.

    Nonetheless, moderate to potentially strong instability and an
    uncapped airmass should support some thunderstorms capable of severe
    wind gusts. Some lingering 30 to 40 knot mid-level flow is forecast
    to remain across portions of the warm sector Friday afternoon
    (particularly across northern Illinois/Indiana) which may aid in
    storm organization, but warm air aloft and a lack of clear supercell
    mode should limit the overall hail threat.

    ..Bentley.. 09/13/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 07:26:54 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 140726
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 140725

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible (i.e, less than
    5 percent probabilities) across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday
    night.

    ...Discussion...
    It appears that an initially digging short wave trough along the
    Pacific coast will contribute to the evolution of a mid/upper low
    centered across northern California by or shortly after the
    beginning of this period. There it is forecast to generally remain,
    cut off from the stronger westerlies confined to the northern
    mid-latitudes.

    A couple of notable short wave perturbations will remain progressive
    within a stronger confluent mid/upper regime across the eastern
    Canadian Provinces through northern mid-latitude Atlantic, including
    one forecast to translate east of Newfoundland and Labrador and
    another digging through northern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.

    In lower latitudes, mid-level ridging likely will remain prominent
    across much of the central and southern Great Plains through
    northern Mid Atlantic. More uncertainty exists concerning an
    easterly wave approaching the Florida Peninsula and a possible
    mid-level perturbation suppressing the ridging across parts of the
    lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity.

    Based on current model output, a remnant surface frontal zone across
    the Ohio into lower Missouri Valleys will remain a focus for higher
    boundary layer moisture content and the development of moderate CAPE
    with insolation. However, there is spread concerning the degree to
    which this front remains quasi-stationary, or begins to return
    northward toward at least a bit more of a favorably sheared regime
    for organized convection. Given this uncertainty, and the otherwise marginal/isolated nature of the anticipated severe weather
    potential, severe probabilities for Wednesday through Wednesday
    night appear less than 5 percent at this time.

    ..Kerr.. 09/14/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 19:17:24 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 141917
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 141916

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0216 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
    on Wednesday.

    ...Discussion...
    Stronger winds aloft will extend from the Northern Plains into the
    Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday as a large upper ridge expands across
    much of the central to southeastern states. A surface high will also
    exist over the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes which will keep the
    more favorable instability well south of the stronger flow/shear.
    While a secondary shortwave trough will swing across central Canada
    and into the northern Plains late, instability should be minimal
    that far north.

    The greatest chance of thunderstorms will be near a weak/stalled
    front from the Central Plains eastward across the Midwest and OH
    Valley, where dewpoints of 65-70 F will be common. Early day
    thunderstorms across this same zone will likely dissipate during the
    day, with scattered redevelopment near peak heating. Given the
    generally poor lapse rates aloft and weak shear, the severe storm
    threat appears low.

    ..Jewell.. 09/14/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 07:31:30 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 150731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 150730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    The risk for organized severe thunderstorms currently appears
    negligible for Thursday through Thursday night.

    ...Discussion...
    It appears that mid-level ridging will remain prominent across much
    of the central and southern Great Plains, middle and lower
    Mississippi and Ohio Valleys through this period. A wave migrating
    on its southeastern periphery may gradually overspread portions of
    the south Atlantic Seaboard by late Thursday night. To its
    northwest, a cut-off low, initially inland of the northern
    California coast, may elongate north-northeastward through portions
    of the northern Intermountain Region and Great Basin.

    Within the stronger westerlies, consolidating large-scale mid-level
    troughing is forecast to dig through northern Ontario, Quebec and
    adjacent portions of the Northeast. It appears that this will be
    accompanied by a developing area of surface low pressure, trailed by
    a reinforcing cool intrusion across the upper Great Lakes region and
    adjacent portions of the Upper Midwest. A preceding front may
    progress southeastward across the northern Mid Atlantic and upper
    into middle Ohio Valley, perhaps overtaking portions of an initially quasi-stationary boundary across the lower Ohio through lower/middle
    Missouri Valley vicinity.

    Guidance suggests that seasonably high boundary-layer moisture
    content along the southern-most baroclinic zone will once again
    contribute to sizable CAPE with insolation Thursday. However,
    generally warm thermodynamic profiles and weak deep-layer mean
    flow/shear probably will continue to inhibit the risk for organized
    severe thunderstorm activity.

    If forcing for ascent, associated with a subtle perturbation
    migrating through the northern periphery of the ridge, can support a sufficiently upscale growing thunderstorm cluster, then the
    environment might be conducive to the evolution of a meso-beta scale
    cyclonic circulation with strengthening rear inflow and potential to
    produce strong to severe surface gusts. While the potential for
    this remains uncertain at the present time, trends will continue to
    be monitored in later outlooks for this period.

    ..Kerr.. 09/15/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 19:12:02 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 151911
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 151910

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    The risk for severe thunderstorms appears low on Thursday.

    ...Discussion...
    On Thursday, a large upper trough will move into eastern Canada,
    with height falls with the base of the trough moving across the
    Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Meanwhile, heights will fall
    over the Southeast as the upper high center shifts back west into
    the southern Plains. To the west, an upper low will drift from
    northern CA into southern OR, with cool temperatures aloft over much
    of the Great Basin.

    At the surface, high pressure will remain over the northern Plains
    to Great Lakes, with a weak surface trough extending from the
    central Plains into the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic. Upper
    60s to lower 70s F dewpoints will remain along this zone, resulting
    in areas of moderate instability. Weaker instability will exist
    ahead of the Pacific Northwest low, and ahead of a cold front
    pushing across northern NV, eastern OR, and western ID.

    Severe storm chances appear relatively low over the Pacific
    Northwest given weak instability and marginal shear, while the zone
    from MO into PA suffers from poor lapse rates aloft and/or minimal
    shear.

    ..Jewell.. 09/15/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 07:31:38 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 160731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 160730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTH
    CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
    ...WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of the central Great Plains
    through southern portions of the middle Missouri Valley late Friday
    afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
    weather.

    ...Discussion...
    A vigorous short wave trough in the westerlies is forecast to dig
    across the northern Atlantic Seaboard accompanied by significant
    surface cyclogenesis near and east of the Canadian Maritimes. In
    the wake of the cyclone, it appears that a cold front will continue
    advancing offshore and through the southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard.
    A trailing low-level baroclinic zone may remain more or less
    quasi-stationary across the lower Ohio and lower/mid Missouri
    Valleys into northern high plains, beneath a weaker belt of
    westerlies in the southern mid-latitudes.

    Within this regime, a mid-level trough and embedded low are forecast
    to slowly progress across the Intermountain West through Rockies
    vicinity, preceded by a more subtle perturbation crossing the middle
    Missouri Valley. The latter impulse, and another westward migrating
    wave across the Florida Peninsula vicinity may contribute to further suppression of persistent mid-level ridging, which may otherwise
    maintain a considerable influence across a shrinking corridor
    centered across the southern Great Plains through Tennessee Valley.

    ...Central Great Plains through southern Mid Missouri Valley...
    Convective potential remains uncertain for Friday through Friday
    night. However, latest model output suggests that the mid-level
    perturbation overspreading the middle Missouri Valley will be
    accompanied by a moderate jet including 30-40 kt southwesterly flow
    in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading the central Great Plains
    through upper Mississippi Valley.

    As insolation contributes to a more strongly heated and deeply mixed
    boundary layer along modestly deepening surface troughing
    coincident with the low-level jet axis, there may be sufficient
    moisture to support scattered thunderstorm development capable of
    producing a few strong downbursts across parts of northwestern
    Kansas through south central Nebraska late Friday afternoon and
    evening.

    Closer to a weak developing frontal wave near the Missouri River,
    roughly between Omaha and Sioux City, seasonably high boundary-layer
    moisture content along a warm frontal zone to its south may support
    a corridor of sizable CAPE and potential for much more vigorous
    thunderstorm development. Lower/mid-tropospheric inhibition might
    remain an issue concerning boundary-layer based thunderstorm
    development, but a late afternoon/early evening supercell and small
    upscale growing cluster do not appear out of the question, before
    storms become elevated while spreading southeastward through
    portions of central Iowa during the evening.

    ..Kerr.. 09/16/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 19:30:10 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 161929
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 161928

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
    MISSOURI VALLEY AND VICINITY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    A few severe storms will be possible from eastern Nebraska into Iowa
    and northern Kansas, mainly Friday afternoon/evening.

    ...Synopsis...
    A midlevel high will persist over TX and vicinity as the current
    closed low over northern CA begins to progress eastward across the
    northern Great Basin. Around the northern periphery of the TX
    midlevel high, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge from
    overnight convection late Thursday into Friday morning near the mid
    MO Valley (NE/IA), with an associated weak wave along a slow-moving
    baroclinic zone. Assuming an MCV develops, some enhancement to wind
    profiles and associated vertical shear can be expected, which would
    support some organized/supercell storm potential in a narrow zone
    along the path of the MCV. Higher-based thunderstorm development
    may also occur along the trailing front/wind shift into KS where
    strong surface heating and deep mixing will favor inverted-V
    profiles and at least isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.

    Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will again occur across the
    central/northern Rockies downstream from the Great Basin midlevel
    trough. A few pockets of stronger surface heating/destabilization
    could coincide with at least 30 kt midlevel flow and support the
    low-end potential for strong outflow gusts. This area will be
    monitored in later updates, but the severe threat appears to be too
    marginal to introduce severe probabilities this far in advance.

    ..Thompson.. 09/16/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 07:31:50 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 170731
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 170730

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
    SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
    THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
    OF THE ROCKIES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing some risk for
    severe wind and hail are possible across parts of the middle
    Mississippi Valley into central and southern Great Plains, and east
    of the Front Range, Saturday afternoon and evening.

    ...Discussion...
    The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern
    mid-latitudes, with mid-level troughing forecast to dig across
    Hudson Bay, Ontario and Quebec, downstream of broad ridging
    overspreading the Canadian Prairies, and in the wake of a
    significant cyclone migrating away from the Canadian Maritimes. In
    response to these developments, it appears that cool surface ridging
    will be maintained to the east of the southern Appalachians, while
    the associated high center shifts off the northern Atlantic
    Seaboard. Another modest high is forecast to begin shifting across
    the central Canadian/U.S. border through much of the northern Great
    Plains, Upper Midwest and adjacent upper Great Lakes by late
    Saturday night.

    This will be preceded by a notable cold front advancing slowly
    southward into/across the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys and
    central Great Plains, beneath a weaker belt of westerlies across the
    southern mid-latitudes. Within this regime, broad mid-level
    troughing is forecast to continue a slow eastward progression across
    the Rockies through central Great Plains, downstream of weak
    troughing slowly approaching the California coast.

    Mid-level ridging downstream of the lead trough will become
    increasingly suppressed across the southeastern Great Plains through
    lower to middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. A perturbation along
    it southeastern periphery may continue slowly west-southwestward
    across Florida and the northeastern Gulf Basin.

    ...Front Range vicinity into middle Mississippi Valley...
    Generally warm thermodynamic profiles and modest to weak wind
    vertical shear to the east of the Rockies will continue to limit the
    severe weather potential, but isolated to widely scattered strong
    thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe wind
    and/or hail appear possible in a few evolving regimes Saturday into
    Saturday night.

    Convection with potential to produce strong surface gusts may be
    supported by the evolution of a very warm and deeply mixed boundary
    layer by late afternoon within weak pre-frontal surface troughing
    across parts of eastern New Mexico, parts of the Texas South Plains
    Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.

    Seasonably high moisture content and lift along the low-level
    baroclinic zone across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys
    may support an upscale growing cluster or clusters of storms which
    could organize sufficiently to support a period or two of strong
    surface gusts.

    Although the mid-level cold core may tend to remain to the northwest
    of the region through the period, cooling aloft across and southeast
    of the Front Range, coupled with moistening southeasterly
    near-surface flow, may still contribute to favorable thermdodynamic
    profiles for a few storms capable of producing severe hail and wind,
    in the presence of modest shear late Saturday afternoon and evening.

    ..Kerr.. 09/17/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 07:41:36 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 170740
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 170739

    Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0239 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
    SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
    THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE
    OF THE ROCKIES...

    CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to widely scattered strong storms posing some risk for
    severe wind and hail are possible across parts of the middle
    Mississippi Valley into central and southern Great Plains, and east
    of the Front Range, Saturday afternoon and evening.

    ...Discussion...
    The stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern
    mid-latitudes, with mid-level troughing forecast to dig across
    Hudson Bay, Ontario and Quebec, downstream of broad ridging
    overspreading the Canadian Prairies, and in the wake of a
    significant cyclone migrating away from the Canadian Maritimes. In
    response to these developments, it appears that cool surface ridging
    will be maintained to the east of the southern Appalachians, while
    the associated high center shifts off the northern Atlantic
    Seaboard. Another modest high is forecast to begin shifting across
    the central Canadian/U.S. border through much of the northern Great
    Plains, Upper Midwest and adjacent upper Great Lakes by late
    Saturday night.

    This will be preceded by a notable cold front advancing slowly
    southward into/across the Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys and
    central Great Plains, beneath a weaker belt of westerlies across the
    southern mid-latitudes. Within this regime, broad mid-level
    troughing is forecast to continue a slow eastward progression across
    the Rockies through central Great Plains, downstream of weak
    troughing slowly approaching the California coast.

    Mid-level ridging downstream of the lead trough will become
    increasingly suppressed across the southeastern Great Plains through
    lower to middle Mississippi Valley vicinity. A perturbation along
    it southeastern periphery may continue slowly west-southwestward
    across Florida and the northeastern Gulf Basin.

    ...Front Range vicinity into middle Mississippi Valley...
    Generally warm thermodynamic profiles and modest to weak vertical
    shear to the east of the Rockies will continue to limit the severe
    weather potential, but isolated to widely scattered strong
    thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe wind
    and/or hail appears possible in a few evolving regimes Saturday into
    Saturday night.

    Convection with potential to produce strong surface gusts may be
    supported by the evolution of a very warm and deeply mixed boundary
    layer by late afternoon, within weak pre-frontal surface troughing
    across parts of eastern New Mexico, the Texas South Plains and
    Panhandle, and northwestern Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.

    Seasonably high moisture content and lift along the low-level
    baroclinic zone across the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi Valleys
    may support an upscale growing cluster or clusters of storms, which
    could organize sufficiently to support a period or two of strong
    surface gusts.

    Although the mid-level cold core may tend to remain to the northwest
    of the region through the period, cooling aloft across and southeast
    of the Front Range, coupled with moistening southeasterly
    near-surface flow, may still contribute to favorable thermodynamic
    profiles for a few storms capable of producing severe hail and wind,
    in the presence of modest shear late Saturday afternoon and evening.

    ..Kerr.. 09/17/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 19:26:42 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 171926
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 171925

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
    SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE CORN BELT AND OHIO VALLEY...AND FROM
    NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Occasional wind damage and/or large hail will be possible across
    parts of the central High Plains and from the central Plains to the
    Ohio Valley.

    ...Synopsis...
    The persistent midlevel ridge over the south central CONUS will
    begin to weaken as a midlevel trough moves from ID/UT to WY/CO.
    There will be a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow from the
    central Plains to the Corn Belt/OH Valley, around the northern
    periphery of the ridge. This belt of somewhat stronger flow will
    coincide with a slow-moving baroclinic zone with richer low-level
    moisture into the OH Valley and deeper mixing with hot surface
    temperatures along/south of the front across KS/OK/TX. Scattered
    thunderstorms are probable along the front, with the strongest
    storms expected during the afternoon/evening. Water loaded
    downdrafts and up to 30 kt midlevel flow suggests the potential for
    occasional downbursts/wind damage across the Corn Belt/OH Valley,
    while deeper mixing/inverted-V profiles will favor higher based
    storms with occasional strong-severe outflow gusts across the
    Plains. Vertical shear within the warm sector will be on the lower
    margins for organized severe storms, so this corridor will be
    maintained as a MRGL risk.

    Wind profiles and forcing for ascent will be a bit stronger across
    the central High Plains, downstream from the midlevel trough
    approaching the central Rockies. There will be a conditional threat
    for a couple of supercells, though uncertainty remains regarding the
    magnitude of buoyancy and how much clouds will inhibit surface
    heating. Isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts will be
    possible, mainly during the afternoon/evening.

    ..Thompson.. 09/17/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 07:08:30 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 180708
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 180706

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0206 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
    VALLEY...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail
    threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the
    southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A relatively zonal upper-air pattern will become established across
    the CONUS on Sunday, with a mid-level low-amplitude shortwave trough
    expected to eject into the central Plains while a more amplified
    upper trough impinges on the California Coastline. As the Plains
    low-amplitude upper trough progresses eastward, a surface cold front
    will continue to sag southward across the southern Plains to the TN
    Valley region. Thunderstorms should develop along or ahead of the
    cold front. Relatively rich low-level moisture preceding the front,
    along with modestly cooler temperatures aloft, may yield enough
    buoyancy to support an isolated severe threat, mainly across the
    southern Plains and the Midwest to OH Valley.

    ...Southern Plains...
    Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm initiation should take
    place ahead of the surface cold front by afternoon peak heating,
    especially over northern to central OK. Here, surface temperatures
    climbing through the 80s F, amid upper 60s F dewpoints, will support
    1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, amid 7
    C/km mid-level lapse rates, may encourage multicellular
    organization, accompanied by mainly a severe wind/hail threat. Given
    modest forcing for ascent, storm coverage is uncertain, so the
    severe threat is currently anticipated to remain isolated.

    ...Central High Plains...
    Upslope flow along the central High Plains will encourage enough
    orographic lift for the development of a few thunderstorms by late
    Sunday afternoon or evening. 7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and
    elongated, straight hodographs with 50 kts of effective bulk shear
    will favor stronger updrafts to organize into supercells. Severe
    hail and wind will be the main threats.

    ...Midwest to OH Valley...
    Surface dewpoints over 70 F will precede the cold front over the
    Midwest to OH Valley corridor as it progresses southward. Both
    pre-frontal and ana-frontal storm development is possible Sunday
    afternoon. Over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE will exist ahead of the front,
    though vertical wind shear should be modest (i.e. 25-35 kts of
    effective bulk shear). A mix of multicells, short line segments, and
    perhaps a supercell are likely. However, the severe threat is
    currently anticipated to be relatively isolated in nature, with
    mainly a few instances of severe wind or hail likely.

    ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 19:28:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 181927
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 181926

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
    SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT
    RANGE...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms, accompanied by mainly a wind and hail
    threat, are possible across portions of the central High Plains, the
    southern Plains, and the Midwest to Ohio Valley on Sunday.

    ...Synopsis...
    In the wake of a northern stream shortwave trough crossing New
    England, a surface cold front will move southeastward into the
    Mid-Atlantic, lower OH Valley and southern Plains by early Monday.
    The frontal location will be modulated by prior convective outflows,
    and it will reside beneath a belt of somewhat enhanced (~30 kt)
    midlevel flow with embedded perturbations. Predictability of
    thunderstorm clusters is low in this flow regime, so will maintain
    low severe probabilities along the frontal zone where steep
    low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts will favor the
    potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts.

    Upslope flow will help keep low-level moisture close to the Front
    Range, with cooler temperatures and weaker buoyancy/stronger
    convective inhibition farther east into the Plains. The passage of
    a weakening midlevel trough during the afternoon will provide weak
    ascent and sufficient deep-layer vertical shear for supercells
    capable of producing isolated large hail and strong outflow gusts.

    ..Thompson.. 09/18/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 07:17:24 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 190717
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 190715

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts
    of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.

    ...Synopsis...
    Mainly zonal mid-level flow, with embedded impulses, will
    characterize the upper air pattern east of the Rockies, with a
    mid-level trough slowly progressing across the Southwest on Monday.
    Eastern portions of a diffuse cold front will linger over portions
    of the eastern TN Valley into the central Appalachians Monday
    afternoon, supporting scattered thunderstorm development. Given
    upper 60s F dewpoints contributing to 1500+ J/kg of tall and thin
    MLCAPE, a few wet downbursts capable of producing damaging gusts may
    occur with the stronger storms.

    ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 19:13:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 191912
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 191911

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms over parts
    of the southern and central Appalachians on Monday.

    ...Central/Southern Appalachians...

    Mainly zonal flow will overspread the eastern CONUS on Monday. While
    weak westerly flow aloft is forecast, a surface cold front will
    continue to develop southward across the Midwest, TN Valley and
    central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic regions. A moist airmass ahead of
    the front, characterized by 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, will support
    a corridor of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from the
    eastern TN Valley toward the southern/central Appalachians. Where
    stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates are
    forecast. Sufficient instability coupled with steep low-level lapse
    rates and PW values around 1.75 inches may support sporadic strong
    gusts from wet microbursts across parts of the TN Valley into
    southern VA and western/central NC.

    ..Leitman.. 09/19/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 07:19:04 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 200715
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 200714

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
    SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated wind damage may occur with the stronger storms across
    portions of the southern Appalachians into the Southeast on Tuesday.

    ...Synopsis...
    The upper-air pattern is poised to amplify some on Tuesday, with
    upper ridging building back into the Plains states as positively
    tilted upper troughs become established over the OH/TN Valleys and
    the Southwest. A surface cold front will continue to usher southward
    from TX to the Gulf coastal region through the day on Tuesday,
    encouraging thunderstorm development. 1500+ J/kg of tall/thin
    MLCAPE, driven by mid 60s F surface dewpoints, will be present from
    the southern Appalachians to the Southeast. As such, the stronger
    storms in this area will be capable of producing a few wet
    downbursts, with isolated tree/wire damage possible.

    ..Squitieri.. 09/20/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 18:17:28 2026
    ACUS03 KWNS 201817
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 201816

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0116 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
    EAST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated wind damage may occur with stronger storms from far
    east-central Mississippi into portions of the southern Appalachians
    on Tuesday.

    ...Far east-central MS into parts of the southern Appalachians...

    A surface cold front will be in place across the TN to Lower MS
    Valleys Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the CAD/wedge front will develop
    south across the Carolinas through Tuesday evening. Ahead of the
    surface boundaries, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be in place
    beneath weak midlevel lapse rates. Abundant low-level moisture and
    stronger heating will support a corridor of moderate destabilization
    from far east-central MS toward far western NC. Deep-layer westerly
    flow will remain weak, and effective shear magnitudes less than 20
    kt. However, steepened low-level lapse rates and PW values near
    1.75-2 inches could support sporadic strong gusts from wet
    microbursts within thunderstorm clusters during the afternoon and
    early evening. The CAD/wedge front across the Carolinas will limit
    northeast extent of the severe risk, and probabilities have been
    removed from that area with the Day 3 update.

    ..Leitman.. 09/20/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)