Forum: War Ensemble BBS

MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 06:27:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 080627
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-081200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1223
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Northern Iowa...Southeast
South Dakota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080630Z - 081200Z

SUMMARY...Low-end flash flooding potential continues with
additional upstream development and repeating environment with
broad area of 1-2" totals with enhanced stripes of 2-3" embedded.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows fairly straight southwesterly
upper-level 100-110kts jet core from N CO/S WY across the ND/MN
line though the jet is also quite diffluent on the southern side
of the jet with best divergence maxima near the SE/IA/MN line
which is just downshear of an embedded shortwave approaching from
central NEB. As such, the low level flow has responded with 850mb
speed max of 50kts starting to intersect with a stronger cluster
of cells. The interaction has broadened into a west to east warm
advection wing with additional deep layer convergence expanding
convective development downstream across the MN/IA boarder (noted
by overshooting tops in the broadening cirrus canopy with -75C
temps). Additionally, low level moisture has pooled due to this
convergence with overall values nearing 2".

A broader axis of conditionally unstable air is oriented more
north to south with core of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across E NEB into NE
SD, though expanding eastward across S MN/N IA with sufficient
values 1250-1500 J/kg noted in RAP analysis to help maintain
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours. Additional
upstream development across the Sand Hills of north-central NEB
near the shortwave will also lift into the western edge of the
ongoing convective area to repeat or potentially merge with
ongoing activity across SE SD. Scattered 1.75-2"/hr rates
embedded within the broader line of 1-1.5"/hr rates and generally
veered 700-400mb steering flow to support a broader area of
additional 1-2" totals with embedded streaks of 2-3" where
repeating/training or strongest cores could reside a bit longer.

Hydrologically, heavy rainfall over the last few days (including
heavy rainfall tonight over SE SD) have further reduced FFG values
across the area with an axis extending from Gregory/Charles Mix
county to NW IA with hourly FFG below 1.5" and 3hr below 2",
though this extends further across S MN/N IA with <2"/hr or
<2.5/3hrs as far east as Dodge/Mower, MN and Floyd county, IA.
As such, scattered incidents of localized flash flooding will
remain possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5THet9MGgR6pStNJWnP2g9OI2OMW2IpZoz62qTr0ueBsi9jjKyyqPxMFKtsKMatdKPDufiZ9vkq9kmKRxYYk5KyzGOE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44259461 44169323 43579245 43139259 42809334
42599425 42499591 42509741 42699861 42959915
43419896 44019739 44169627

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 20:50:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082049
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-090245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1224
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082047Z - 090245Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of southeastern AZ into NM and southeastern CO over the next 6
hours. Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected but
with 15 minute rainfall up to 1 inch within the stronger/slowest
moving cells.

DISCUSSION...2030Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered monsoonal convection underway across the
higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim into the elevated terrain of
far southeastern AZ into NM. Total PWs across AZ/NM were fairly
similar as of 20Z, compared to this same time yesterday, with
standardized anomalies of +1 to +2. SPC mesoanalysis from 20Z and
18Z soundings from EPZ and ABQ showed instability was primarily
focused from far southeastern AZ into southern and eastern NM with
500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE. The synoptic scale mid to upper-level
ridge was centered over KS/MO with the southwestern extension
across south-central AZ/NM, a bit north compared to yesterday at
this time, resulting in a broader coverage of weak deeper layer
mean flow of ~10 kt or less across NM/AZ.

Some minor westward expansion of the 500+ J/kg MLCAPE line is
expected over the next few hours with continued daytime heating
beneath mostly clear skies. Thunderstorm development will continue
to expand along areas of higher terrain before moving into some of
the lower elevations, driven by the mean steering flow and outflow
propagation from storm clusters that develop.

While an evolution similar to Monday is expected due to the fairly
similar parameters in place, locally greater coverage of 1+ inch
rainfall will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains into the
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains due to weak steering currents
oriented parallel to the terrain and weakly backed low level flow
over eastern to southeastern NM. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected within the stronger cores along with potential for 15
minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. Any flash flooding that
occurs is expected to be isolated in coverage with impacts to low
water crossings, arroyos and locations of poor drainage. Spotty
total rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with isolated 2+
inch totals possible through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zS6Zm3gDfXshvtrpaz2BQ44zrWIOjy9mMZsQS4uyf58LHJV53ULlYylbaiJxoKiHASanANWJHMG5fpiUgyZRW0EVSw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37620374 37620296 37590229 37160210 36690301
35610408 34730484 32980542 31680647 31180795
31170899 31140991 31191047 31361105 31931111
32541082 33151054 33681029 34120989 34290919
34600848 35190771 35830706 36460624 37070564
37430503 37570444

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 8 22:59:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 082258
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-090455-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1225
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
657 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern NE into IA and southwestern
WI/northwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082256Z - 090455Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is expected to become likely across
portions of central IA this evening into early tonight, with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and 6-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches
(isolated higher rates/totals possible). Surrounding locations of
eastern NE into southwestern WI and northwestern IL may also
experience flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...2230Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms extending along a surface
trough/differential heating boundary that extended from central IA
into southeastern NE, located southeast of a larger scale
quasi-stationary front. Outflow was observed to be slowly
propagating southward/southeastward across southeastern NE into
southwestern IA. Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms were located
north of this region from eastern NE into north-central IA. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg
along and just south of the trough/differential heating boundary
along with a bubble of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE in south-central IA.

Short term forecasts from the RAP suggest that the low level jet
will begin to increase across eastern KS into northwestern
MO/southern IA around 00Z, with S to SSW 850 mb wind speeds
expected to reach 30-40 kt by 04Z. The increasing overrunning
component of the low level flow will support the continued
development of nocturnal thunderstorms from eastern NE into
central IA and downstream locations of WI/IL. Storm motions are
expected to parallel an axis of low level convergence, supporting
training rounds of heavy rain, containing hourly rainfall of 1 to
2+ inches.

Portions of western IA have received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over
the past 2-3 days which has increased soil moisture values and
reduced infiltration capabilities of additional heavy rainfall.
Flash flood guidance (FFG) for this portion of IA was 1.5 to 2.5
inches in 3 hours with surrounding areas to the west and east
containing 3-hr FFG values of about 2-3 inches. While the location
of the southern-most overrunning boundary and low level jet
orientation may focus the heaviest rainfall east of the lower FFG
values of western IA, the setup still appears likely to favor
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding later tonight.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7U2woauqqyLtW7aizDxlTOhuQ-cobZUhT-eKY6wyhN1u8NlZX7FKwjxqGvzK4ddY0XxEPPftN5DUwPTdlxjnR_e_uk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43309046 43238981 42758932 42208956 41668991
40979173 40589522 40769728 41389776 41889745
42279616 42529425 43019188

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 00:45:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090044
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-090635-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1226
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Areas affected...eastern CO into western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090042Z - 090635Z

SUMMARY...Brief training and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches may
result in isolated flash flooding from portions of eastern CO into
western KS through 06Z.

DISCUSSION...Infrared satellite and radar imagery from KPUX showed
showers and thunderstorms moving east off of the central Rockies
into the High Plains as of 0020Z with the strongest region across
northern Pueblo County with cloud tops that continued to expand
and cool. 00Z surface observations showed southeastern to eastern
CO was in a post-frontal environment with easterly/upslope flow in
place. KPUX VAD wind and RAP analysis data showed that the
easterly winds of 10-20 kt extended up 4-5 kft above the surface,
veering toward a unidirectional WSW direction in the mid to upper
levels.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z showed MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg from
southeastern CO into western KS (highest to east) but with at
least weak CIN over the entire region. However, as
showers/thunderstorms continue to advance farther east into the
High Plains, moistening of lower level profiles within the upslope
flow may help the development of pockets of uninhibited elevated
instability across portions of eastern CO into western KS.
Kinematic profiles suggest that individual cells and/or any
clustering of storms should translate eastward at a progressive
pace. However, there is some potential for convective development
out ahead of any thunderstorm activity advancing eastward through
southeastern CO, setting up potential for short term training. The
environment will be capable of 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall and
the isolated potential for 2-3 inch totals. Given the fairly low
flash flood guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours over
much of eastern CO into western KS, an isolated exceedance or two
may occur through about 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Vy-o45OKAmKHm1RHLCH4MbdLH-5WHCqc4nEayHTq1fmntn6iz2S2eYRcijVdhWxFbiV8GcRZRet95GrwwoQMKSAaig$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39360165 39120132 38650129 38060186 37750255
37540372 37560471 37980513 38430512 38750482
39050409 39350269

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 04:52:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090452
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northwest
Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090450Z - 091030Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding potential continues. New
upstream development shows potential for repeating across areas
recently affected with additional 2-3" totals. Leading edge,
higher rates may still pose localized risk due to higher 2"/hr
rates.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR shows elongated convective complex
across much of Iowa, with leading bow echo near a meso-low along
the Mississippi River southwest of the Quad Cities remains fairly
potential with strong moisture flux convergence helping to broaden
the width of the bow for increased overall duration while it still
remains forward propagating. However, it is starting to move into
a more stable regime over N IL where inflow is less humid/unstable
with lower 60s Tds likely to be fed into the complex. Still a
hour or so more of 1.5-2"/hr rates may result in localized urban
flooding concerns. However, the upstream environment remains
conditionally unstable with solid isentropic ascent pattern for
continued development.

However, much of the environment has stabilized, there does remain
some increased unstable air between frontal zones across southern
NEB and through IA which is intersected by a north-south axis of
500-1000 J/kg of CAPE across western MO along an older frontal
zone, with total PWats over 2". CIRA LPW shows most of this area
as the enhanced moisture stream connected to the Pacific
sub-tropics along the northwest edge of the larger scale ridge
with very high moisture denoted in the 700-500mb layer along with
surface to 850mb showing higher values (Tds in the low to mid
70s). However, south of the front lower Tds and a wedge of drier
air can be seen through the 850-700 and 700-500mb across SE KS
through KC Metro toward N MO; so though stronger confluent 850mb
flow is the driver of isentropic ascent there may be some negative
dry air entrainment into the cells. This may be the reason for
the more stringy/tendril appearance to the convective cells across
W IA. Still, the length of the axis with embedded stronger cores
in an ideal training (west to east) environment with strong
southwest to southerly deep layer convergence should still
maintain the scattered ascent pattern with repeating elements
across S IA to be expected. Overall rates given some of the dry
air entrainment may be a bit more limited than seen earlier with
the initial line, but scattered 1.25-1.5" streaks and 1-3 hours of
repeating across areas having received 1-3" may start to exceed
the longer 3-6 hr FFG values which are 2-3" or 3-4", respectively.
As such, localized flash flooding may be possible but likely
limited in overall areal coverage and be more widely scattered in
nature through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_QVqTvHVVyVCfZXYPqai_9cP5lpo54kumZvFOfXYHSySz5S9-vtkaylP9ioM_P65MEnN6CZW4TeDnzgbtU-yAlLJJwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42149161 42089051 41858979 41418965 40998998
40649070 40589212 40599417 40629568 40719654
41069691 41559656 41829554 41929443 42059296
42109232 42109202

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 09:27:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 090927
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-091500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1228
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
526 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...Southern Iowa...Northern Missouri...Northwest Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090930Z - 091500Z

SUMMARY...Repeating scattered shallow thunderstorms with ability
for 1.5"/hr and additional 1.5-2.5" totals continue to pose
possible isolated to widely scattered low-end flash flooding,
mainly as cells move into areas less affected further south.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um WV suite continues to show a persistent
WSW to ENE corridor of enhanced deep layer moisture along the
northwest edge of synoptic ridge that dominates the
Mid-Mississippi and Southeast. Additionally, a northern stream
shortwave is digging through the Dakotas with an attendant cold
front through MN to NW IA into Nebaska; further narrowing/
corralling the deep layer moisture axis. RAP analysis and GPS
data shows core of 2-2.25" total PWATs remain over SE NEB into W
IA though localized profiles and CIRA LPW continue to show a core
of drier air along the SW interface of the subtropical moisture
plume from E KS toward NE MO. Still, strong confluent low level
jet from 30-40kts from 850-700mb continues to support isentropic
ascent and upstream convergence for upstream redevelopment, though
there are some hints that 700mb winds are veering a bit further
suggesting eastward motion of the is redevelopment region may be
expected over the next few hours.

The upwind environment also appears to have retained some unmixed, conditionally unstable air with axis of 750-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
generally coincident with moisture axis. Some air appears to be
overturning with new scattered development over far SE NEB into SW South-central IA with new scattered/cooling tops noted in 10.3um
EIR imagery. This is similar along the main training axis further
north over E NEB into W IA, though coverage is more scattered in
nature than earlier overnight. Downstream the lack of remaining
instability due to multiple rounds appears to be leading to
general warming and broadening of more moderate shield
precipitation across central to E IA, though regional RADAR shows
some stronger bowing segments into SE IA. As such, rain rates
will be further reducing to 1-1.3"/hr with a few occasional
transient spots of 1.5"+/hr possible.

As such, a streak or two of 1.5-2.5" in 2-3 hours will remain
possible. This may still intersect the recently saturated/flooded
areas along and just south of I-80 though trends suggest the best
remaining instability and moisture convergence would be a county
or two south where higher FFG and drier ground conditions exist
more likely resulting in beneficial rains. However, any
intersection with more saturated areas, including from prior days
(SW IA into far NW MO) still present a low-end potential of
exceedance for isolated to widely scattered but localized
incidents of flash flooding through early daybreak.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8YVkdUHPERZ1bzOAcjyjTWEf6SK_TRgaXU6hp4HKgP5dv3PzI7djKmcuAxgr6ZlqOKNEhh9rYrgN-GhcjkDBZJvdO90$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41809129 41649010 41258940 40718947 40269033
40139239 40099431 40079643 40209714 40949713
41319524 41589347 41749205

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 20:34:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092034
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1229
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into NM and adjacent High Plains
of CO, OK, TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092031Z - 100230Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms may result in a few areas of
flash flooding from portions of southeastern AZ into NM and the
adjacent High Plains of CO, OK and TX through the early evening.
Peak hourly rainfall totals of 1-2 inches and 15-minute rain rates
of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...2010Z visible satellite imagery and area radar
imagery showed scattered thunderstorms over the southern Colorado
Plateau from eastern AZ into central NM as well as the southern
Rockies down to the Sacramento Mountains. Water vapor imagery
showed an elongated mid to upper-level ridge over the southern
tier of the U.S. containing two centers, one of which was centered
over eastern AZ into western NM. RAP analysis data showed 850-300
mb mean layer winds of less than 5 kt beneath the ridge center
with less than 10 kt elsewhere across much of AZ/NM, supportive of
slow cell movement. Blended TPW imagery showed that precipitable
water values were similar to a couple of tenths of an inch higher
compared to 24 hours ago (especially over central NM and
southwestern AZ), translating into standardized anomalies of +1 to
+2.5 for the region. SPC mesoanalyses and 18Z soundings from EPZ,
ABQ and FGZ showed MLCAPE was a little bit higher than 24 hours
ago, with greater coverage of 500 to 1000 J/kg from northeastern
to southwestern NM into parts of southern AZ.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to blossom across the higher
terrain over the next couple of hours with slow cell movement
following the deeper layer mean flow. Short term forecasts show
the ridge center sliding westward later today into western AZ as a
shortwave advances southeastward across the northern Great Basin
into the central Rockies. This ridge orientation is expected to
shift the steering flow to more of a northerly direction along the
AZ/NM border with northeasterly to easterly flow across
southeastern AZ.

Increasing storm coverage should allow for congealing of storms
into a few quasi-organized clusters with outflow advancing and
initiating new development of cells. Expectations are for monsoon
activity to advance into southern NM/southeastern AZ beyond 00Z
while lingering into portions of northeastern NM, with dissipation
over the Colorado Plateau. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
expected with 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches (locally
higher), supporting the potential for localized flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!85IsKGvsLxswHzEA_XFYPFs46i0temSJsuL1hfFdc3He56QY6FPlbQXQk12pTroMx3mA58Nj9RWqA62nIF93BP8csm8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37270381 36920229 36500204 35790237 35160317
34750418 34010490 32610534 31960555 31370630
31500754 31460797 31080810 31020858 30951086
31121161 32071173 33631130 34111055 34760885
35810683 36970534

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 22:02:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092201
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-100355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1230
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...eastern OH, far northern WV, western PA into
central NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092158Z - 100355Z

SUMMARY...As a broken axis of thunderstorms advances southeastward
through OH/WV/PA/NY, embedded short term training may result in a
few areas of flash flooding through 04Z (midnight EDT). Peak
hourly rainfall is generally expected to range from 1 to 2 inches,
although hourly totals above 2 inches will be possible should
ideal training materialize.

DISCUSSION...2130Z radar imagery showed a broken axis of
thunderstorms extending from north-central OH into northwestern PA
and western NY, advancing toward the southeast into an unstable
airmass containing 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (via 21Z SPC mesoanalysis
data). The storms were located just ahead of a pre-frontal
convergence axis positioned well ahead of a cold front over Lower
Michigan. Moisture across OH into western NY was anomalous (2-3
standard deviations above the mean) with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches (via the latest GPS data). The high
moisture has resulted in observed 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches to the south of Medina, OH between 2030Z and 2130Z.
However, the progression of cells has limited total rainfall to
less than 1.5 inches thus far.

While the 12Z HREF and rapidly updating HRRR/RRFS model data
hasn't had a good handle on the timing/placement of storms as of
21Z, there is good model agreement for the evolution and
progression of storms to advance southeastward through OH,
northern WV, PA and western/central NY within the available
instability axis. Sufficient bulk shear/instability values across
the region could support organized cells but both ordinary to
right-moving supercell vectors are progressive from the west to
northwest at 20-40 kt.

The concern for flash flooding arises as storms likely continue to
expand and advance downstream. Outflow propagation out ahead of
the broken axis of storms could allow for brief alignment with the
mean steering flow, supporting short term training of cells and
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. An isolated instance of 2+ inches
of rain in an hour will also be possible. The result will be
pockets of total rainfall between 1 to 3 inches through 04Z with
the potential for flash flooding across areas of sensitive terrain
or urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!65rb_Bt4ALIMhED6Q_0Y2sfb1rJrwHVuKR35JqSD7ktb_PDgc2N-jGVd24sko1lThm10PIzH8i2h8WPaowoddn7D1fY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43127584 42827485 41977505 40697781 39917967
39298152 39388383 40188414 40998258 41948067
42667873 42967753

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 9 23:02:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 092302
FFGMPD
CAZ000-100400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1231
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
700 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092300Z - 100400Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding may develop along portions of
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges of southern CA into the
southern Sierra Nevada through this evening. Peak hourly rainfall
over 1 inch will be possible with 1-2 inch totals through 04Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible imagery and regional radar
reflectivity as of 2240Z showed isolated showers/thunderstorms
over eastern Tulare County of the Sierra Nevada and along the
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges, with attempts at additional
development with areas of towering cumulus. The environment across
southern CA contained highly anomalous moisture with the 12Z
soundings from NKX and VBG showing precipitable water values at or
above the SPC climatological max for early September. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE of approximately 500-1000
J/kg over Orange, San Diego and western Riverside counties with
lower values of near 100-250 J/kg into Ventura County where a pair
of backbuilding cells was located.

While forcing is weak, outside of the elevated heat sources of the
mountains, southern CA's placement beneath the western edge of a
mid to upper-level ridge has resulted in very slow cell motions of
about 5 kt. With still some time for daytime heating, additional shower/thunderstorm development will be possible over the next
couple of hours with potential for peak hourly rainfall over 1
inch and totals of 1-2 inches from the southern Sierra Nevada into
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges. Any cells are expected to
remain isolated to terrain features.

Most of the CAM guidance suite has had a good handle on the
ongoing activity but the coverage of heavy rain due to isolated thunderstorms/showers should remain low. However, within the lower
coverage of storms, there will be some limited potential for
hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch and isolated flash flooding
potential. The loss of daytime heating after sunset should allow
any ongoing storms to rapidly dissipate.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4i2SwFimSURq6RuZGKc1xyuEOt81tNlJ6AJHLr0zvrQ4ifL96NpF8RaArEeWCBS-oHTwBe9hb_ZDgITpHdSsW6eyP98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36831824 36611802 35811797 35441817 35191827
35041842 34921846 34811839 34751822 34701798
34641776 34571746 34541721 34491696 34451679
34381655 34331635 34261609 34111584 34001565
33861555 33761554 33691567 33691587 33771603
33861627 33861638 33771644 33631641 33471626
33331620 33201620 33041607 32971604 32711600
32601607 32531635 32521653 32581661 32901677
33311699 33551712 33851708 33951709 34061716
34111733 34121768 34181794 34241815 34331842
34411865 34431894 34461922 34521943 34601960
34671966 34801965 34901953 34961936 35001913
35021879 35291858 35651847 36261847 36491855
36761850

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:03:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100202
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-100800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1232
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Ohio Valley & Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100200Z - 100800Z

Summary...A band of showers and thunderstorms continues sagging
southward into the Ohio Valley. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash
flooding across partially saturated soils and rough topography.

Discussion...A line of showers and thunderstorms extends from
southeast IN into southwest PA with another segment with heavier
rainfall across north-central PA. Precipitable water values are
1.6-2.1" in this area per GPS data. CIN has set in and MUCAPE
across the region is 500+ J/kg in eastern areas and 2000+ J/kg in
western areas. Effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts has been
organizing convection. The thunderstorms lie within a confluent
zone/elevated front.

The guidance suggests that the thunderstorm activity should have
some longevity, particularly within areas with higher instability
which will take longer to erode closer to the central Ohio Valley.
Based on the parameters above, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which would be more problematic
in the areas of lower flash flood guidance values across the Upper
OH Valley, which based on the mesoscale guidance would be sooner
rather than later. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is
possible here.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_dTimXZPLePPP92jwhIjQvU5haqyEFNxElFhjg4F9AKl5FrrEEBQvsnEiiN8RehwyjQOEsl5Vxb5D6QnZMmFHcootec$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40747967 40377843 38628060 37808569 39158559
39638338 40248131

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:11:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100211
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-100615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...far western TX into southwestern NM into
southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100209Z - 100615Z

SUMMARY...Lingering monsoon convection will maintain a localized
flash flood threat across portions of far western TX into
southwestern NM and southeastern AZ for another 3-4 hours. High
sub-hourly rain rates will produce isolated additional totals of 1
to 2 inches.

DISCUSSION...0150Z GOES infrared satellite and GLM imagery showed
scattered thunderstorms advancing south across southwestern NM and
WSW over southeastern AZ. Lingering instability of 500 to 1000
J/kg (locally higher as seen on the 00Z EPZ sounding) was located
from western TX into southwestern NM and portions of southeastern
AZ. The storms were moving generally south to southwest following
the deeper layer mean flow around a mid to upper level ridge
centered over west-central AZ. Cell motions were also following
outflow progression, as noted in western Cochise into eastern
Pima/Santa Cruz counties where 15-minute rainfall rates of 0.5 to
1.0 inches have been observed.

Expectations are for storms to continue advancing downstream
(west-southwest to southwest across southeastern AZ and southward
in NM) over the next few hours with localized high sub-hourly rain
rates. The available moisture (1.3 to 1.7 inch PWs per recent GPS
data) will continue to support localized 15-minute rainfall of 0.5
to 1.0 inches and isolated storm totals of 1 to 2 inches. These
higher rates may result in flooding of low lying and urban areas,
as well as other locations of poor drainage. Beyond 06Z, the flash
flood threat is expected to diminish due to a loss of instability
and/or translation of storms into Mexico.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4MBYep6csdfLkT20s-gcPSSrBUQWs6W1FKuOKDTXwshl4wOb3KzxAdmLj312m2Vd0EQ3VIYc8Ep-4BU4fOet0zA9dV8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33981082 33521038 33150975 32580939 32320879
32390831 32740744 32800707 32720657 32350573
31960541 31150579 31580683 31570783 31180804
31090867 31090952 31131083 31201136 31781164
32841163 33561147 33871121

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 02:58:46 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100258
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-100856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Areas affected...in and near portions of southeast CO & southwest
KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100256Z - 100856Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are slowly developing across
the area. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could
lead to isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...A substantial shortwave in the Westerlies is moving
through western WY & northwest CO at the present time, enhancing
upper level divergence in the Central High Plains. Meanwhile,
low-level upslope flow has brought precipitable water values up to
1.5-2", which is quite high for the High Plains. MU CAPE is ~2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-35 kts. The mean 850-400 hPa
wind is out of the west at 5-10 kt, nearly antiparallel to the
current east-northeast surface flow. Thus far, the thunderstorms
that have been occasionally reorganizing and showing minimal
movement just north of a thermal boundary and east of a surface
wave, likely due to the conflicting winds with height.

The expectation is for cells to continue growing in coverage and
track eastward as the 700 hPa winds veer and the upper level
shortwave progresses. The mass of thunderstorms may drift
somewhat northward as the 700 hPa flow takes on more of a
southerly component. Given the parameters in place, hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible where cells
backbuild, train, or merge. Given the modest flash flood guidance
values, isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dU3iENX6-Y-Z-DPMSnBTS_Ly5nHOLs1xA1Ma9ek9PURs5WYIxAZGIn1bykm-KFe2qgUqKN8OT8bqp_S-nNg_-kizCI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38640235 38190015 36849988 37170251 37160400
38330462

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 04:04:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100404
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-101002-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central Plains Into the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100402Z - 101002Z

Summary...Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
regionally into early Thursday morning. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Pockets of showers and thunderstorms have been moving
across MO, dropping local 2-5" of rain Wednesday afternoon and
evening. New thunderstorm activity has formed as of late back
across central and eastern KS. Regionally, there is a broad 850
hPa confluence zone/front aloft helping to lead to the convection.
Precipitable water values are 2-2.25". MU CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 25-45 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS guidance indicates thunderstorms across MO
escape into northern KY, southern IL, and southern IN with time
while the KS activity broadens in scale and moves into MO.
Earlier heavy rainfall has lowered the three hour flash flood
guidance near the KS/MO border though values are moderate to high
elsewhere. The ingredients available support the idea of hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local totals to 4" being
possible. This would be where cell mergers, mesocyclones, or cell
training occurs. Areas with some soil saturation from earlier
today and urban areas would be most at risk for flash flooding.
Flash flood occurrences could be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4jCA4EqyHnfJxEJzWCpy4_xLF8bqAvxnCwiyrqXClHzj-7BM0tnS4Yvq2qaJZDX76N0OzedJUaO1vLwRjjPlzIXdCtg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...OUN... PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39949231 38978724 37638661 37318930 37159179
37649340 36369532 36089703 37679963 39009691

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 07:09:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100709
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-101307-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100707Z - 101307Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
across southern OH while other thunderstorms approach from
southern IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local
totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Partially surface-based thunderstorms have shown some
backbuilding and training character across southern OH as they
feed off a 1000+ J/kg MU CAPE pool near the tri-state border of
OH/IN/KY. Recent radar estimates were near 6" between Waverly
City and Jackson OH. Additional thunderstorms have been forming
as of late across north-central KY while an additional batch moves
in from southern IL. This is occurring within a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.7-2.3" per GPS data.
Effective bulk shear remains 25-40 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS guidance were a county or two too far north with
the convection in southern OH and an hour too slow with the
activity moving across southern IL. The expectation is for
thunderstorm activity to try to bridge between these two
convective areas -- backbuilding from the east and progressing
from the west -- with the merged areas eventually dropping south
as the instability pool near the tri-state border erodes. It
appears the REFS has a better concept of this idea than the HREF
though it's probably a little too far north. In the meantime,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals to 4" are
possible, which could lead to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding, particularly in urban areas and locations with relief in
WV.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9hsTWgOsR3v3BaC29V0lg6qg8s-mz0XiWcktLH1E5s1O13qnv--g_iAZSMcKBVPBlkCkRByg6NK0WiAJo9nCMVKwUDY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39488308 39208144 38578011 37908098 37588255
37248538 37638925 38748905 38998779 38868600

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 08:25:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100825
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-101423-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...in and near KS & MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100823Z - 101423Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to
persist past sunrise. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional
local totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding where soils are saturating and in urban areas.

Discussion...A couple batches of thunderstorms lurk near the
southern border of CO/KS and from southeast KS into western MO.
These storms are near a confluence zone at 850 hPa, generally
elevated over a surface thermal boundary stretching near the 37th
parallel near the KS/OK and MO/AR borders. Rainfall over the past
28 hours is estimated as high as 8" near Mound City KS per doppler
radar, implying saturating soils. Precipitable water values range
from 1.5" in the Central High Plains to 2-2.5" farther east closer
to sea level. Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts. MU CAPE is
roughly 1000-2000 J/kg.

The mesoscale guidance suggests that both batches of convection
should persist past sunrise, with the CO/KS area dropping
east-southeast into northern OK while the KS/western MO activity
edges southward, making minimal eastward progress as a hole in the
instability pool across portions of MO broadens due to convection
increasing stability with time. Hourly rainfall amounts to 2.5"
with additional local totals to 4" are possible where mesocyclones
form, cell training occurs, and cell mergers happen. Flash flood
guidance continues to lower over portions of MO due to slowly
saturating soils. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible where soils are saturating and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5BypAErjoJ57U3gcoQwyt1iIhHJQcBMlQbU3VZltj0vJLi-m2Y9SD-h2ovnT7o5DChzfA-iYgOjONOWbhDLG2ImZF-I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX...OUN...PAH... PUB...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39629195 38919000 38298950 37938984 37449243
35319656 36590118 37000242 37370321 37970332
38660253 38800205 38420060 38209962 38239844
38539749 39079561 39619361

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 08:54:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 100854
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101452-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100852Z - 101452Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are forming near and offshore
the coasts of southeast LA, MS, AL, and the western FL Panhandle.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding, primarily in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low was spotted on GOES-19 imagery
offshore Galveston TX, while an upper level shear line was
apparent over southernmost AL and southern MS. A surface
circulation was apparent in the oil rig observations to the
south-southeast of Galliano LA. CIN has been eroding across the
region over the past several hours. Precipitable water values are
2-2.2" per GPS data. The Central Gulf Coast lies in an
instability gradient north of the warm Gulf, with an ML CAPE
bubble of 3000 J/kg offshore southeast LA. Effective bulk shear
of 25 kts is not far away to the northwest of Lake Pontchartrain.

A zone of 850 hPa confluence is expected to remain near the
Central Gulf Coast over the next six hours. The mesoscale
guidance signal for heavy rain shifts westward from near
Pensacola, where some thunderstorms recently went inland, along
the AL and MS coasts to Southeast LA by 11z. Thunderstorms moving
inland should sharpen the instability gradient to the immediate
coast/swamp margin over time. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible where cells merge or manage to train. Urban areas would
be most sensitive to the incoming heavy rainfall. Flash flooding
instances are expected to be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!711Y8Qqkwogr24OKlxi61AkyHaOOVoA63NLteF2KMmDapYsEUhcH6fq6eKw_FhMKQB0cjYbynECB5bDyH90bZuRo8gI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30958862 30958706 30358630 30098779 30068855
29568890 29318895 28878902 28958941 29188970
29009032 29169040 29089078 29239121 30109076
30539017

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 12:51:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 101250
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KY...Southern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101249Z - 101700Z

SUMMARY...Additional broken areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms are expected this morning. A generally localized
threat for flash flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...The mid-morning radar and satellite imagery shows
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing across
portions of the OH Valley, with some of the more organized
activity and colder convective tops situated across north-central
to northeast KY and into south-central WV. This activity is
associated with a series of smaller-scale vorts that are still
interacting with a moist and relatively unstable airmass across
the broader OH Valley region.

MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are still in place with PWs of
1.75 to 2.0 inches. The moisture and instability transport is
still being aided by a westerly low-level jet of 30+ kts, and this
broader warm air advection along with fairly stronger convergence
still focused along the leading outflow boundary activity should
still tend to help focus some localized persistence of convection
through the midday hours.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some additional localized storm totals of
2 to 3 inches will be possible. This activity will mostly be south
of the overnight/early morning activity that impacted southeast OH
and into parts of western WV, but the additional rainfall in the
short-term should tend to be aligned across areas of central and
eastern KY and into southern WV.

The FFG values acros these areas are a bit higher, with less soil moisture/streamflow sensitivities right now by comparison, but
with the locally repeated nature of some of the convection and
some of the rugged terrain, a localized threat of flash flooding
will exist through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4x3AHFq7RW9kHyO0nNu8T2DlD5rHX84LjtWXbCiI_NMfMNkoDbnodh4NuoC8Qcs5NlCOkJLT3JwT1HlzrkQND511LA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38698178 38578068 38238021 37828028 37528085
37278217 37148344 37218491 37538555 38028543
38398487 38648344

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 10 23:07:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 102307
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102304Z - 110400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into an area
of compromised soils due to recent heavy rain may result in areas
of renewed flash flooding through early tonight across portions of
the upper OH Valley. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...2245Z radar imagery showed a recent uptick in the
intensity of rainfall across the southern third of OH into central
WV. These storms were occurring within weakly confluent low level
flow, located out ahead of a west-east oriented cold front to the
north. Blended TPW imagery showed an axis of anomalous
precipitable water values extending through the OH Valley with
values of 1.7 to 2.0 inches reaching back into the middle MS
Valley. MLCAPE over the upper OH Valley was estimated to be weak,
only 500-1000 J/kg per recent SPC and RAP mesoanalysis data but
the high moisture will help to compensate for the weak instability
to support hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches.

Portions of northeastern KY into southern/eastern OH and western
PA/WV received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over the past 24 hours which
has broadly lowered flash flood guidance values for the region to
about 1 in/hr. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible
where cells align with the mean westerly steering flow, supporting
at least brief periods of training. A few embedded pockets of
heavy rain from efficient showers/thunderstorms will likely
continue to affect portions of the upper OH Valley over the next
few hours with RAP forecasts showing the weakly confluent flow in
the lower levels (and instability) translating south with time.
Augmenting larger scale ascent will be the right entrance region
of a departing upper level jet max over southern Ontario. While
coverage of heavy rain may be limited in coverage, the recent
heavy rain and sensitive terrain of the region raises enough of a
concern to highlight the increased flash flood potential over the
next 3-5 hours. Isolated storm totals up to ~3 inches will be
possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0uqfvapiomYXyV1OSs90MxqWhTiF2w-8RJIVmdb3cN_krLo8o0UTjlOrdnWPGbM8tnIQn28tJ4ehtMlPPE0jy1sV-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40528111 40327951 38678026 38238348 38458455
39368461 39748316

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 01:22:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110122
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-110700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1242
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
921 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...AR into portions of the MS Valley into western
KY/northwestern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110120Z - 110700Z

SUMMARY...Through 07Z, increasing thunderstorm coverage is
expected to lead to increased flash flood potential from AR into
portions of the lower/middle MS Valley into western KY and
northwestern TN. Training of heavy rain is expected to lead to
hourly totals of 1 to 2 inches along with 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals through 07Z (isolated higher rates/totals possible).

DISCUSSION...01Z surface observations showed an effective frontal
boundary that extended from the eastern KY/TN border into western
TN, central AR and southeastern OK. This boundary was largely
outflow driven from afternoon/evening storms with temperatures in
the upper 80s/lower 90s to its south, with 70s and 80s to its
north. Water vapor imagery showed a positively tilted mid/upper
shortwave trough from northeastern KS into the TX Panhandle,
amplifying and advancing eastward. The region from AR into
northwestern TN and western KY contained high precipitable water
values of 1.7 to 2.1 inches per recent blended TPW imagery and 00Z
soundings from LZK and ILN. Instability was mixed across the
region with 500 to 2000+ J/kg and inhibition also varied (per SPC mesoanalysis).

As the upstream shortwave approaches over the next 3-6 hours, the
low level response at 850 mb will be for increasing southerly to
southwesterly winds of about 10 to 20 kt from southeastern OK into
TN/KY. Overrunning of the effective front is expected to support
low level moisture advection, a reduction of CIN and the
increasing coverage of thunderstorms overnight with mean steering
flow oriented similarly to the orientation of the front. Lift is
expected to be augmented within the right entrance region of a
modest upper level jet max to the north. Due to the anomalous
moisture in place, training cells should easily support hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated values above 2 inches in
an hour possible.

Most of the region has lacked notable rainfall over the past week
(at least a week) with fairly high flash flood guidance values of
about 3 to 4+ inches in 3 hours. Therefore, should flash flooding
develop overnight, areas will likely be confined to urban areas or
other locations of poor drainage. 6-hour rainfall totals of 2 to
4+ inches are expected through ~07Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7hvxp37WX8bQSef69jOzFaJ0W2QhOu9F9sb1WKTLAdtjAJqjI4VMPDDFfG7fKXPZv6ElGl9yUNI5qq0z1LUMaWT4imM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37828696 37578627 36868571 36378566 35938652
35149093 34869398 35039449 35739455 36309359
37019146 37488955 37818807

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 03:29:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110328
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-110826-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1127 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110326Z - 110826Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding
over partially saturated soils near the OH/WV/KY border towards
09z. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" remain possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue in the vicinity of
a declining instability pool across portions of southern OH and WV
within a zone of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values of
1.8-2.1" exist here per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 40 kts
is leading to some level of organization. Activity continues to
be surface-based; ML CAPE across eastern KY and southwest WV is
500-1000 J/kg.

The guidance shows a signal for heavy rainfall in this region
towards 09z. Portions of the area have seen local maxima in the
6-9" range since Wednesday afternoon, at least partially
saturating area soils. With the available ingredients supporting
hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" where cells can manage to train
and/or backbuild, flash flooding remains possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6fExhWYNgp3aGXYLjf3_wwXtxqvi72tXnhLR7lvwTzYfGFOtSa4601_7whkeFtTI58qKMzvuW_QH8xm76sIstYsOfyk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448249 39107963 38238023 37758100 37488338
38218425 39268460

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 06:41:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110558
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-111156-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...northern AR into central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110556Z - 111156Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to isolated flash
flooding concerns between northern AR and central KY through 12z.
Hourly amounts to 2.5" are possible where cells train or merge.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
stream across northern AR, northwest TN, and portions of central
KY. They are occurring within a region of 850 hPa confluence,
near and downstream of a region of 1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE.
Precipitable water values of 1.8-2.1" were sampled by GPS data.
Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts.

With time, RAP guidance indicates that the degree of 850 hPa
confluence should lessen as winds at that level decrease, which
should cause a corresponding decrease in effective bulk shear.
With time, instability should lower somewhat more as well. The
mesoscale guidance shows the greatest persistence of heavy
rainfall in and near portions of AR through the period, with heavy
rain concerns near the TN/KY border fading over the next few
hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible wherever cells
can train, merge, or a random mesocyclone manages to form. This
could lead to isolated occurrences of flash flooding through 12z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_N4KQAA0rUz7tgWPuYZrzjaRGXLLvMOsJzxUScWspUMbgC-RTHiKXrddp7nni4YCAzJusCUq7Hyl1pxvJJNH1Iis8z8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37848504 37188430 36188714 35059180 34419427
35819500 37018955

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 07:15:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 110715
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-111312-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110712Z - 111312Z

Summary...A weak low pressure area is moving inland of the Central
Gulf Coast. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are
possible near the coast. Flash flooding could be isolated to
widely scattered.

Discussion...A weak surface low is near Slidell LA at the present
time, with a central pressure of 1012 hPa. This movement is being
induced by a shortwave digging across the Southern Plains. CIN
has been eroding somewhat over the last several hours near and
just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Precipitable water values
of 2-2.2" lie in the area per GPS data. Confluent 850 hPa inflow
is seen to the low pressure system's southeast. Effective bulk
shear has been flirting with 25 kts as of late. Thus far, shower
and thunderstorm activity has been isolated to widely scattered in
coverage.

The expectation is for shower and thunderstorms to increase in
coverage over the next six hours. As showers and thunderstorms
move inland, the instability gradient near the Gulf Coast should
sharpen as activity stabilizes inland areas. There is some chance
for short, training bands in this scenario whose focus should
shift east from far southeast LA/MS towards the FL Panhandle as
the low-level inflow veers from south-southwest to west-southwest.
Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible in
this environment. This degree of rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding is expected to be
isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!40AKtV1JhATatMwUcaY0fr82OY2hOZxWM5D2eYqE1PVPDSzk6KT3qr99b8GEilKND4I8LnDHH29ETkcbKBRsJcPTFYI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31718741 30858614 29998556 30218664 30148801
29918849 29088898 28878950 29248965 30148939
30938900 31408856

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 12:05:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111204
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1246
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
803 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern KY...Southwest WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111203Z - 111630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall rates associated with showers and
thunderstorms going through midday may result in a few areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
convective cluster across northwest KY that is gradually advancing
off to the east in close proximity to a quasi-stationary front.
Surface observations suggest a weak surface low riding along the
front which is strongly facilitating this convective activity
given a corridor of relatively stronger low-level moisture
convergence near and ahead of the wave.

The environment is very moist with a deeply tropical column
suggested in OSPO ALPW data, with notable moisture concentrations
seen in the 700/300mb layer. RAP data suggests PWs overall are
near 2 inches, and generally near over 2 standard deviations above
normal for this time of the year.

Instability is modest with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, but
the level of columnar moisture/saturation suggests a rather tall,
skinny CAPE profile. Thus, a setup that is highly efficient and
capable of yielding high rainfall rates of up 2 inches/hour with
the stronger convective cores/updrafts near this advancing surface
wave. Relatively divergent flow aloft is also noted downstream of
the shortwave trough digging toward the Mid-South which is
favoring at least modest dynamical ascent.

Over the next few hours as this surface wave moves east across
north-central KY, there should tend to be some west/east focus of
convection with perhaps some occasional instances of
cell-training. The activity should impact portions of central and
eastern KY and may advance to an extent across southwest WV going
through midday. Given the high rainfall rate potential with
elevated warm cloud depths, and cell-training potential, a couple
of swaths of 2 to 3+ inch rainfall totals will be possible.

Given some of the local urban footprints and rugged terrain
farther east across eastern KY and southwest WV, a few areas of
flash flooding will be possible going through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6x8dhRyEZoNlCH-CLYe04vgLDDKHiE7mKeftH7mA6qMng43YxByOcBBXQetzl8WERG2MWVADw_wOVTtFX3XYTG46msI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38508434 38508276 38318138 37928095 37518139
37398241 37328381 37318522 37488637 38068642
38328569

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 12:53:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111253
FFGMPD
ARZ000-111800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1247
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111252Z - 111800Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will maintain a threat for mainly isolated areas of urban flash
flooding going through early this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a well-defined mid-level
shortwave trough amplifying into portions of the Lower MS Valley
and Mid-South which is driving an axis of rather slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms across central to northeast AR.
Shortwave dynamics/DPVA interacting with a nearby quasi-stationary
front and pool of very moist and relatively unstable air should
continue to support a convective threat over the next several
hours.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted, with PWs of 2.0 to
2.25 inches, and this will easily support rainfall rates as high
as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms. There is also
an environment conducive for some back-building cells with weak
and locally opposite upwind Corfidi vectors relative to the mean
layer flow, and this will also support elevated and locally
persistent high rainfall rate potential.

Satellite and radar data shows some of the back-building
convection occurring west of Little Rock, and the latest hires
multi-model consensus suggests some additional rainfall potential
over the next several hours as high as 3 to 4+ inches.

An isolated threat for mainly urban flash flooding will exist
going through the early afternoon hours as this shortwave energy
transits the region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6v-T6xK_iXUCk_a50S7Rz3yJ62fVM1Yx85u0jr0_3XuAHeprz0670o-U434Qm0vZawWn3nVu5ozj3wp_qInvtX3uxh8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36099070 35649034 35179039 34669110 34229239
34059366 34349434 34859436 35389349 35829215

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 13:33:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111333
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-111930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1248
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern AL...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111330Z - 111930Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of showers and thunderstorms with very
high rainfall rates will be capable of maintaining a threat for
flash flooding over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows some
impressively cold convective tops to near -75 C across portions of
southern AL and the FL Panhandle as an axis of very moist/unstable
and convergent Gulf inflow continues around the eastern flank of a
weak low center across southern MS.

Multiple surface troughs/convergence zones are noted in the
surface observations, and this coupled with the level of moisture
and instability should maintain the convective threat over the
next several hours with a general tendency for the activity to
advance farther north and inland across southern AL.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are in place along with PWs of
2.25+ inches, and this combination will easily support rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour given the level of stronger cloud-top-cooling/strong updrafts seen. This along with some
banded nature of the convection and localized cell-training
concerns will favor some spotty 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals going
through early this afternoon.

The FFG values are rather high, but the slow-moving and locally
training character of the convection may drive sufficient totals
for some areas of flash flooding. However, overall, the antecedent
conditions on the ground would suggest this primarily being an
urban flash flood concern.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8WypelegyL33iJY01iJd1Q5kw5JeJ1WZu-su89qaOCbHx4IlZy_9-Lt2e9RQze9jw0RLzUfhLr_FMP0UkHqUtaBcFH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32498727 32318596 31548510 30548510 30048554
30218667 30098765 30098812 30478845 31198821
31928804

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 18:57:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 111857
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-120055-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1249
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111856Z - 120055Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally high
rainfall rates will be capable of producing isolated to scattered
areas of flash flooding going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data shows convective initiation taking place
across portions of southern UT and down into the Mogollon Rim area
of northern AZ, with some suggestion of activity developing also
down across southeast AZ.

A destabilizing boundary layer via strong solar insolation will be
working in tandem with orographics and an array of differential
heating boundaries influenced by localized cloud cover and terrain
to support increasing coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity
over the next several hours.

SBCAPE values are already on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and
the environment is rather moist with PWs regionally as high as 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. This includes a combination
of monsoonal moisture and some long-track high-level moisture
transport that has origins to some of the eastern Pacific basin
tropical activity, including T.S. Norbert.

Very modest shortwave energy is noted across portions of southern
UT down through northwest AZ and eastern CA which will be moving
gradually off to the east this afternoon, and this energy coupled
with the strengthening thermodynamic environment and
aforementioned orographic footprint with higher terrain will also
facilitate the localized expansion of convection with some spotty
potential for convection to be terrain-anchored.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1.5+ inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some of the 12Z hires CAMs support some
spotty 2 to 3+ inch totals going through the late afternoon hours.

This will support concerns for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding. The normally dry washes, local burn scar areas and
any slot canyons will be most vulnerable to see these potential
flash flood impacts over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5jF0FhkpgM2NZNZMKyGuCzV-f-2E20XXxtTzlhwqPN3jx6L48vJjXafeAdz5nQCfaJsZa2UGPEkCDgO_54NQGKkbrQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38241184 38221069 37820975 36700852 35240780
33180777 31510854 31050974 31171127 31701186
32831192 34091229 34971302 36171332 37511282

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 21:00:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112100
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-120130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Northern Alabama and Georgia into South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112058Z - 120130Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving lines of thunderstorms with very high
rainfall rates will maintain a threat for flash flooding over
northern Alabama north-central Georgia, into South Carolina into
the evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional NEXRAD depicts lines of thunderstorms on the
outer boundary of a mid-level low over central Alabama. This
activity had been progressing inland from the Gulf Coast today,
but has slowed as low level southerly flow has encountered speed
convergence over northern AL/GA and east into SC. Ample moisture
(PW of 2.3") and instability (MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg) has
maintained heavy rain rates, so the slowing has led to localized
flash flooding on a east-west line that stretches through the
Atlanta metro. This focus area then shifts south over eastern GA
while earlier activity from eastern SC progresses toward GA.
Scattered areas of hourly rainfall of 2-3" have been estimated
from KFFC recently.

This slow motion should continue and allow at least localized
flash flooding into this evening despite higher FFG. Recent HRRR
and RRFS runs support this notion with localized 2-4" over the
next few hours. 3hr FFG is generally 3-4", so the main flash flood
threat should continue to be for urbanized or travel corridors.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6qSmuLvtGarD-RUn8NWqBxz4QHtoS4SkFhEnmtlMwcSyLGbrZe1Z7LRvVnRtc3rAILKO164eV6Potyj5Qg8hvHl-6hU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34608716 34368390 33978147 33138085 32158125
31608236 32918337 33638618 33858678 34108748

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 11 21:32:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 112132
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1251
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Mississippi into Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112131Z - 120230Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates
make a threat for flash flooding over eastern Mississippi into
Alabama this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z...regional NEXRAD depicts scattered of
thunderstorms on increasingly convergent western boundary of a
mid-level low over central Alabama. Ample moisture (PW of 2.2 to
2.3") and instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) has allowed heavy
rain rates so far over southern MS and northwestern AL. This focus
area along a trough should continue to drift east this evening and
could congeal over east-central MS into west central AL over the
next few hours. shifts south over eastern GA while earlier
activity from eastern SC progresses toward GA. Max rain rates have
been around 2.5" per KDGX and KGWX with the most recent activity.

Slow motion in 10-15kt deep layer wind should allow localized
flash flooding this evening, especially as it moves east to areas
along the AL/MS border that received rain in the past day and over
urban areas. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs support the ongoing
activity with the RRFS farther east/south with it's motion. Both
agree on max rain threat of 2-4" over the next few hours,
maximized in areas of cell mergers in the slow flow.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4blAThW37XSNxCjdo99puRMVIqp01VwUQrY6a4hsmxc20qSJNKY6Jv2D3XmYTpCQRMP51szRMvdMrDYsbWQSASKVLdA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34718814 34478730 33528751 33268759 32698813
31988828 31438807 30948806 30578856 30758988
31529006 33378978 34488936

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 00:25:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120025
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-120445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1252
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Western Tennessee/Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120020Z - 120445Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates
bring a threat for scattered flash flooding to western Tennessee,
Kentucky, into northern Mississippi tonight.

DISCUSSION...As of 0030Z...regional NEXRAD depicts a broken line
of heavy thunderstorms over western TN and northern MS. This
activity is shifting north-northeast into western Kentucky in a
moist tongue east of an upper low over northern Arkansas. Ample
moisture (PW of 2.1 to 2.3") and instability (MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg)
has allowed heavy rain rates with hourly estimates of 2-3" from
KNQA). Continued southerly flow pumping moisture in should
maintain activity as it continues to drift east from its northward
movement. Western TN and south had dry antecedent conditions, but
up to a couple inches fell in western KY over the past day, so FFG
decreases to the north.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs support the activity shifting into KY
with both featuring 2-4" maxes over the next few hours, maximized
in areas of repeating cells in the southerly deep layer flow east
of the low. Scattered flash flooding is possible.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_7PaDRpfwSQOzh6CAJhuBAJejkvto-sDXfzGKR4jsekKBYCzdvxueoNn0CaN2Kwb2l6zne75wqk4REdUnsLyQiuONd4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37158748 36888661 35808667 34818781 34528871
34389004 35138935 35918912 36538893 37098860

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 00:54:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120054
FFGMPD
AZZ000-120600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1253
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Central to Eastern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120052Z - 120600Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop into the
overnight along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona. This activity may
persist enough to cause scattered flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...As of 0045Z, regional NEXRAD in AZ depicts scattered
thunderstorms over the Mogollon Rim to the White Mtns. Westerly
low level flow will continue to bring higher moisture and
instability from lower elevations. Recent radar estimated rates
are up to 2.5"/hr from KFSX.

Instability should be maintained through this evening which should
set up enough repeating heavy rain to produce increasing flash
flood coverage into the overnight. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs
maintain agree on heavy activity along the Mogollon Rim through
about 04Z before potentially advancing west into the inflow and
down the Mogollon Rim. Both models depict 2-4" QPF through 06Z
which could produce considerable flash flooding, especially in the
terrain below the Mogollon Rim.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Bxc-Z5HjGeC9seIPRR7-VXkwGVvcRSoGdgsvztM7ZApzOwlrtYxZE6eTWSJ8G8mS-0z7F_-MlJfVYaDXY-Wbw4SCIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35951247 35691022 34030924 32840906 32460936
33181044 33301081 34001168 34981217

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 01:33:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120126
FFGMPD
MNZ000-120600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
925 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120125Z - 120600Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with high rainfall rates bring
a threat for isolated flash flooding from central through northern
Minnesota overnight.

DISCUSSION...As of 0115Z...regional NEXRAD depicts a line of heavy thunderstorms along a cold front from central MN to the Boundary
Waters. Moisture and instability has pooled along this front and
it may struggle to progress east ahead of the activity. Rain rates
of up to 2"/hr should continue to occur for at least a couple
hours while remaining north of the Twin Cities and perhaps not
into the Arrowhead which had earlier activity. Much of this area
has higher FFG, generally above 2"/hr, so flash flooding should be
isolated.

Recent HRRR and RRFS runs support the activity developing over the
next couple hours before waning. Slow movement will lead to
increased duration and the potential for 2-4" of rainfall through
about 05Z. Isolated flash flooding should occur.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9i22NDaCkeve3Pvv9eBV3naLhO6YEnMGa_Ptl8eTYsJScEdPZRxLofmmuyttowuq6m5JShLnbzUuY_yXrRGs8poQNRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48649289 48409161 48289108 47879124 46889223
45759310 45269408 45219602 45739595 47439423
48329330

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 02:58:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120258
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-120856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1255
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120256Z - 120856Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall appear to
be somewhat increasing in coverage along small portions of the
AL/MS coast. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level low across AR is allowing for
difluence aloft across the Central Gulf Coast. Near and behind an
outflow boundary which has tried to push offshore, new convective
development has occurred near the AL/MS coastal border and the MS
barrier islands. A few other showers and thunderstorms have
recently formed across far southern AL and the western FL
Panhandle as well. This is occurring within a zone of 850 hPa
confluence. Precipitable water values of 2-2.25" exists here, per
GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 25+ kts is moving into the
region. CIN has yet to set in; ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg.

The guidance appears to be missing the recent uptick, but is
aboard the idea of it happening in 2+ hours. Given the parameters
in place, hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are
possible where cells train. There appears to be better potential
for this overnight into Saturday morning due to the increase in
effective bulk shear. This degree of rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas. Flash flooding occurrence is expected
to be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9SuBKKXlmoB_DHNMyXkQA8Ek71-5V63M5Fgu2E2NAmfUPbQvIuynUf-TS8PPeSdQA7iCvIX-aNh8IFN1nb8Lx-elZPw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31198581 30308588 30318671 30218754 30128851
30328886 30438888 30708843 31098759

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 04:09:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120408
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121007-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1256
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1207 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Lower Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120407Z - 121007Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are attempting to broaden in
scale and align in and near southwest IN. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been forward
propagating across western KY into southernmost IL. However, new
activity has developed in advance of the system within an ML CAPE
gradient across southwest IN. Precipitable water values of
1.9-2.3" lurk across the region. CIN remains quite low due to the
upper level low moving just south of the eastern MO/AR border. ML
CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts.

While the 00z HREF/REFS guidance continues to show solely forward
propagation convection, the recent addition of new cells in
advance of the activity has changed perceptions. Where cells
manage to merge and/or train, hourly rain amounts have the
potential of ramping up to 2.5", with local totals to 4" being
possible. Given the modest three hourly flash flood guidance
values, flash flooding is possible on an isolated to widely
scattered basis.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9w-W8k5u6RedTS0TKe5U4KPuSfjz5JOZr9Ih94PbFV59A4kceeya1dQc2Pu4_mlK06sRkzzEnP7zekobIUsvs2DpwNM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39878601 38978443 37508516 37308806 36668919
36708967 38828846

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 05:16:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120516
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121114-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1257
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120514Z - 121114Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into
the early morning hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could lead to
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level
trough moving across the Great Basin and southern CA, aiding
difluence aloft. Precipitable water values range from close to 1"
in the Mogollon Rim to close to 2" in the Lower Deserts. CIN has
developed; MU CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg remains across the region.
Effective bulk shear of 25 kts is helping to organize convection
near the Mogollon Rim.

Guidance suggests some westward drift to convection with time
across AZ. The scale of the heavy rain footprint should reduce in
scale over time, with a more significant decline expected after
09z. Until activity can reduce in scale, hourly rain amounts to
2" are supported by the environmental parameters, which could
occur due to backbuilding, cell training, or cell mergers. This
degree of rainfall would be problematic in burn scars, dry
washes/arroyos, box/slot canyons, and urban areas. Flash flooding
issues are expected to be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8qG3P2PGdFVAb-JFylCqdftXTtwAnmJATwrxauE8IQFegfyF3Bcot8x2ewZjWsJpCT9zuLGgDLV-cS8aV18jNVqvefU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36341260 36251120 35451041 33360993 32310982
32561182 34051303

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 06:28:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120628
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-121227-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1258
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of AL, GA, & FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120627Z - 121227Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing across southern
& eastern AL. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5"
are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely scattered
flash flooding.

Discussion...A couple attempts of shower and thunderstorm bands
have formed as of late across southern & eastern AL within a
region of confluent 850 hPa flow. Precipitable water values are
2-2.25" per GPS data. CIN never quite developed in this area,
which is ahead of an upper level low centered near the AR/TN/MO
border junction, with an additional vorticity lobe rotating
through northern LA/northwest MS. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg.
Effective bulk shear is 25 kts.

Convective developments are broader than indicated by the 00z
HREF/REFS guidance, but their placement isn't terribly far off.
There is an expectation of this narrow convective bands either
moving or ultimately extending northeast into northwest GA over
the next six hours while the 850 hPa confluence zone shifts
eastward. The environmental parameters suggest that hourly rain
amounts to 3" and local totals to 5" are possible, which would be
problematic in urban areas and where soils were partially
saturated by heavy rainfall on Friday. Flash flooding occurrences
could be isolated to widely scattered in this synoptic setup.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_aWlc9vV5zDZHKQ-QcjvdEs_iovlrW02u77xfNwvMAw2aSkT_l9fhcpt4QkWnWbzPczWeAwDsQCN93fXDNjBcFZD7_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34508426 33428423 31338503 30188568 30168753
30768783 31898729 34278570

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 08:08:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 120808
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-121406-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1259
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120806Z - 121406Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
moving northeast. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Forward propagating convection along with development
out ahead of the activity continues to produce random cell
mergers/short periods of training. The showers and thunderstorms
are forming within a zone of 850 hPa confluence and within an
instability gradient. Precipitable water values of 1.8-2.1" lie
here per GPS data. CIN has developed; MU CAPE Is 500-1000 J/kg
near the thunderstorms with slightly higher values to their
southeast. Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts.

While there's a bit of disparity amongst various pieces of
mesoscale guidance, with the 06z hi-res NAM abandoning the
prospect of this system's existence, the 00z HREF/REFS signal is
fairly cohesive. The progress of the convective mass should shift
more east-northeast with time. Where thunderstorms manage to
merge or briefly train, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local
totals to 4" are possible. While the three hourly flash flood
guidance values are high in IN, they are lower in OH due to
partially saturated soils from heavy rainfall on the 9th and 10th.
Isolated to widely scattered occurrences of flash flooding are
possible into late Saturday morning.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7TogS-gVI5BWmdJb0LaH7C95RyGQcFCbklJSszdZoPmevD2EVWjN42XSVhUgV8TcItbRQWKzyYE5ZRtivyOSj4B1OR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40588344 39968292 39158394 38548569 39038654
39558740 40068676

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 14:02:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121402
FFGMPD
GAZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1260
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Northern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121400Z - 121800Z

Summary...Training showers are expected to continue across
portions of northern Georgia through the remainder of the morning,
with additional heavy rains and localized areas of flash flooding
possible.

Discussion...The morning sounding from FFC showed PWs over 2
inches and a freezing level around 15,000 ft. This environment
has supported a corridor of very efficient showers moving
southwest-northeast from near Carrollton to the Atlanta metro.
These showers have been training ahead of a slow-moving
mid-to-upper level shortwave and its associated surface trough
approaching from TN/AL. KFFC radar indicates rainfall rates over
2 inches where these showers continue to train. Showers are
expected to continue to shift slowly to the northeast across
northern Georgia along with the better forcing. With the
environment remaining favorable for efficient rainfall, additional
heavy amounts and localized areas of flash flooding are possible.
Recent runs of the HRRR indicate localized additional amounts of
3+ inches are possible though the remainder of the morning into
the early afternoon within the highlighted area. The threat for
flash flooding will be elevated across areas that have already
seen heavy amounts, in addition to urbanized and poor drainage
areas.

Pereira

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_mGI8MV0v3bVrTtqltRVocGays29xXyGrN0s_zh1WRgiblvZcWLprJqInG7gJwsab28pD0lHquykeRO8pHQUvzUU948$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34768352 34508311 34238318 33838397 33578463
33548517 33928506 34418456 34678420

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 18:19:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121818
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1261
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the TN/OH Valleys and the Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121818Z - 130015Z

SUMMARY...Expanding areas of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and this evening will likely result in areas of flash
flooding given a combination of heavy rainfall rates and locally
sensitive antecedent conditions. This will include the flood-prone
urban areas as well.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery is
showing a general cooling of convective tops across areas of
eastern TN and southeast KY on up into areas of southern and
eastern OH. Some convective initiation is also imminent over the
higher terrain of WV where rather strong solar insolation over the
last few hours has helped to destabilize the boundary layer while
also facilitating some differential heating boundary activity.

One of the bigger drives of the heavy rainfall threat over the
next several hours will be the ejecting 700/500 mb shortwave
trough axis over the Lower OH Valley which has a southward
extension into parts of the Mid-South and will be advancing east
across the broader TN/OH Valley region and eventually the central
Appalachians going through later today and then this evening.

MLCAPE values regionally have increased to 500 to 1000+ J/kg, and
the additional boundary layer heating will drive this magnitude
upwards over the next few hours. Meanwhile, the vertical column is
quite moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches, with the greatest
moisture profiles noted over southern OH down into eastern TN.
However, all of the PWs across the region including the central
Appalachians are running a solid 2 to 3 standard deviations above
normal.

The 12Z HREF/REFS suites shows a substantial uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity over the next few hours as the upstream
shortwave approaches and yields stronger DPVA/divergent flow aloft
and related deep layer ascent. This will support a low-level
response with some uptick in southwest flow and thus a further
increase in moisture transport up across the Upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians in particular heading into the evening hours.

High rainfall rates are expected, with some of the stronger storms
likely to produce rainfall rates as high as 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour. The HREF/REFS guidance supports the greatest threat
of that over southern and eastern OH, central and northern WV and
into western PA. Some storm totals going through at least
mid-evening this evening may reach as high as 3 to 4+ inches which
will be aided by some localize cell-training concerns as
convection expands in coverage.

Locally sensitive antecedent conditions with moist soils coupled
with the flood-prone urban corridors are likely to experience at
least some areas of flash flooding going through this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9bP5Dl9X_fGgLqfJWBzowB4t3WyxX2GyHNQ5V__Xwq8F34TBxcuYSjzbHy_qtyyAnYba0-W3lgxUdAeL3BEtiuDNbiM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX... OHX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41777934 41107820 39457887 38717971 37758069
36898146 36048229 35438365 35878489 36658473
37898386 39918234 41198099 41678021

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:07:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121907
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1262
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121905Z - 130105Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates will likely foster scattered areas of flash
flooding going into the evening hours. Urban locations along with
burn scar areas and the normally dry washes will be at greatest
risk of seeing these impacts over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data and regional radar shows plenty of
convective initiation taking place across south-central to
southeast AZ, and to a lesser extent near the Mogollon Rim area
farther north.

A destabilizing boundary layer via strong solar insolation has
already focused SBCAPE values as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and
even some values over southern AZ are over 3000 J/kg. This
instability coupled with different heating boundaries and the
influence of terrain will focus a notable increase in the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours.

Plenty of monsoonal moisture remains in place across the region
with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches and with PWs across southern AZ
very anomalous with values in the 90th to 95th+ percentile range.
This moisture coupled with the instability is expected to yield
high rainfall rates capable of reaching 1.5 inches in as little as
30 minutes.

Weak vort energy stretched out across the region from
west-southwest to east-northeast in the 500/700 mb layer will tend
to play a role in the overall convective evolution, but in time as
outflow boundary activity ensues, there will likely be some
collisions of these mesoscale boundaries that will facilitate new
convective development. Some localized persistence of the
convection over the next several hours may foster some spotty 2 to
4 inch rainfall totals and especially over southern AZ where the
moisture and instability parameters are maximized.

This will likely promote scattered areas of flash flooding, with
urban locations, burn scar areas, and the normally dry washes most
susceptible to seeing flash flooding impacts going through this
evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6JgaKFRla9_cshYvsWtUZgxMx4mU9Y4PpILRueD4qgWWovzUfPkkhLjkpNCJGw0JhP78D02UYgmEktaKnrWA3ZJ4qTk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35401112 35041020 34300934 33370890 31750885
31270912 31070979 31171127 31451231 31931332
32681363 33211335 33731220 34451189 35091190
35351162

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 19:41:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 121941
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-130130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1263
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast VA...North-Central to
Northeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121940Z - 130130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
may promote some localized and mainly urban areas of flash
flooding going through this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery suggests
plenty of instability across the southern Mid-Atlantic region with
a regionally agitated CU/TCU field noted, and especially over
south-central to southeast VA and into areas of north-central to
northeast NC where scattered clusters of showers and thunderstorms
are already evolving.

Cooling convective tops are noted in close proximity to a
quasi-stationary front that is draped west to east near the VA/NC
border, and the frontal convergence coupled with a strongly
unstable and very moist airmass should promote some additional
expansion of convection over the next few hours.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg and PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches
will support very high rainfall rates capable of reaching 2.5
inches/hour with the strongest convective cells. Relatively slow
cell-motions coupled with at least some potential for cell-mergers
will favor potential for some rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+
inches at least on an isolated basis.

The 12Z HREF/REFS suite strongly supports this rainfall potential,
and while the FFGs across the region are rather high, the setup
should favor at least a localized flash flood threat with
generally the urban areas at greatest risk for impacts going
through the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7O0niQqQ9fL8bs0sZ7nWNo76J2eeyjV3MzOV8zRSrxuGEtFj8XQBL1CJRZ5bLhjpgjipiufAEcodR1Iemvg3L7p3TqI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37807689 37537574 36827542 36197557 35837606
35507721 35427863 35677960 36228021 36808010
37357939 37707821

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 20:32:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 122032
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-130130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1264
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern UT...Northern AZ...Western
NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122031Z - 130130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of monsoonal shower and thunderstorm
activity will continue into the evening hours. Isolated areas of
flash flooding will be possible for the more sensitive slot
canyon, burn scar and dry wash locations.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W visible satellite imagery along
with LightningCast data and regional radar shows a gradual
increase in the coverage of scattered monsoonal shower and
thunderstorm activity.

The airmass over the region continues to destabilize with SBCAPE
values as high as 1000 to 2000 J/kg given strong solar insolation,
and this coupled with orographics should promote the additional
expansion of generally scattered areas of convection that will be
capable of producing high rainfall rates. This will be aided by
PWs running as high as 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal.

Hires model CAMs suggest some rainfall rates as high as 1 to 1.5
inches/hour, and some spotty 2+ inch rainfall potential where some
of these slow-moving areas of thunderstorm activity set up and
potentially even become nearly anchored to some of the higher
terrain.

Given the rather high rainfall rates and slow cell-motions in
general with the storms that do evolve going into the evening
hours, some isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible. The
normally dry washes, burn scar areas and slot canyon regions will
be at greatest risk as normal with this kind setup.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9TwhBSeyK9vM8Gp-z5TlTwg_nQ9ZNnIUJyNwNAd1_RTaPUFAfD1tfs0q_5fKlnPX9Th3m-XEmU8mn32z_TTcqVYTDXc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39680942 39330886 38080886 36500891 35200775
33750722 33220747 32960815 33140877 33850905
34600959 34830987 35111025 35351090 35401148
35331221 36091269 36771290 37451289 38181264
38751232 39321167 39651061

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 12 23:56:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 122356
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-130555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1265
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley...Central Appalachians...Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122355Z - 130555Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected going into the overnight hours. Wet/sensitive antecedent
conditions and locally persistent areas of high rainfall rates
will continue to drive areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery
shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough advancing east
across the OH Valley which will advance into areas of the central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states overnight. This has been
fostering cold convective tops and an expansive axis of heavy
showers and thunderstorms over the last several hours across
portions of central and northern WV and western PA.

A focused corridor of warm air advection along with deep layer
moisture transport, moderate instability, and shortwave dynamics
are all working in tandem to drive the convective threat across
the region. Ahead of the shortwave trough itself, warm-sector
MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg are still in place, with the leading
edge of this up into southwest PA and extendind down through
central WV and back west into central and southern OH. Meanwhile
the northeast advance of a warm front is also allowing for deeper
layer moisture transport and higher PWs to arrive with values
generally near 2 inches.

Over the next several hours heading into the overnight period,
stronger DPVA and associated right-entrance region upper jet
dynamics aloft will support stronger deep layer ascent overrunning
areas of the upper OH Valley, central Appalachians and northern
Mid-Atlantic region as deeper layer moisture transport and warm
air advection continues. This will interact with the remaining
pool of instability over the region and coupled with convergence
along the advancing warm front and orographics/upslope flow near
the higher terrain to maintain regional clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms. This may include some northeast advance into
areas of northern PA and southern NY.

Despite gradually waning instability profiles with the loss of
daytime heating, the very moist column coupled with deep layer
forcing will still support high rainfall rates upwards of 1 to 2
inches/hour. This is support by a consensus of the 18Z HREF/REFS
guidance, and the latest multi-model consensus also suggests
corridors of additional cell-training that may yield additional
localized swaths of 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals going through at
least midnight.

Given the ongoing areas of flash flooding and already
wet/sensitive conditions otherwise, these additional rains going
into the overnight hours are likely to promote additional areas of
flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6CEU9Lure0Zq1ohMIwoTmIgqczI4736orj0N3KzdWxs9GQqB9BrVNbN2p9HAlngcB_asqy3k6cJ4Q168N0lPhy0Y3U8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42857673 42767548 42067522 41427599 40747688
40017790 38637937 37558059 37318160 37708256
38338306 39268294 40208205 41318044 42307859

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 00:58:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130057
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-130500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1266
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern AZ...West-Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130055Z - 130500Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of scattered showers and thunderstorms
with locally high rainfall rates may support an additional
isolated concern for some flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery still shows
some scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms across portions
of central and southern AZ along with west-central NM. The
activity has generally peaked, and overall the cloud tops are
generally warming as instability has been exhausted through the
convective overturning process.

The instability that still remains somewhat formidable based on
the latest RAP analysis is mainly confined to areas of southwest
to south-central AZ where SBCAPE values remain as high as 2000+
J/kg. However, there are multiple outflow boundaries sweeping
across the region which are actively working to weaken the surface
instability profile.

Regardless, the remaining footprint of locally colliding outflow
boundaries and presence of orographics will continue to support at
least a few more hours of scattered areas of monsoonal shower and
thunderstorm activity. PWs remain anomalously high across the
region with values of 2 to 3 standard deviations above normal, and
therefore, any additional convection this evening will still be
capable of producing high rainfall rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour.

Where any cells still try to hang up near areas of higher terrain
or along colliding mesoscale/outflow boundaries, there may be some
additional spotty 2+ inch amounts. This may yield another instance
or two of flash flooding, and more likely that this would be an
impact to some of the normally dry washes, although a highly
localized urban impact or perhaps a burn scar issue could also
still be possible from these additional rains in the near-term.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-UTOxO2Jhz_WN0dPTOfGr_cfuUWl7c2ihJH64eh-Nagt0Bawhsia8Q61tcFTX9j9iOXPKi2GzJmvVDCPHBS218mU1hg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35821178 35181023 35160859 34700771 34020770
33430868 32731066 31691190 31761313 32321406
33021451 33971440 34501373 35411309

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 02:22:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130221
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130819-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1267
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...near the OK/KS border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130219Z - 130819Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are capable of hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" during the next six hours.
Flash flooding is possible on a widely scattered basis.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops
on infrared satellite imagery near the KS/OK border are elevated
over a surface front which angles through OK near a zone of 850
hPa confluence/convergence. From the central OK/KS border
eastward, the atmosphere is relatively uncapped with 700 hPa
temperatures near or below 12C. Precipitable water values are
1.75-2". MU CAPE is 2000-3500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is
30-40 kts.

The 18z HREF/12z REFS are a few hours behind on the convective
evolution here and not terribly helpful...used the 00z hi-res
NAM/00z ARW/00z ARW2 and recent radar reflectivity trends as a
starting point for convective placement during the next six hours.
When adjusting for the three hour offset -- the signal in the 12z
REFS/18z HREF is never better for heavy rainfall than it is right
now. However, there are aspects of the environment which improve
with time, such as the low-level inflow increasing while it veers.
The 18z-based Galvez-Davison Index implies an increase in
convective coverage with time across portions of southern KS and
OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional local totals to
4" are possible where storms backbuild, train, or merge. Flash
flood occurrences could be widely scattered, weighted towards
urban areas given the moderate to high three hourly flash flood
guidance values.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!98Fsw2aSA0BzU7GcU77KueJisdFFSo0HBgdKZcO1mD_RHC6BoOznfJWf7ZaZ2Vk4ousRz_TD1OPasE9qbuoQMXXdK-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37629825 37609705 36859539 35669572 35519764
35680069 36949942

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 03:24:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130324
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-130922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1268
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1123 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130322Z - 130922Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern KS
are capable of hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4".
Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...New elevated showers and thunderstorms in central KS
are trying to align along a west-northwest/east-southeast axis.
To the east, other showers and thunderstorms continue to drop
south-southeast across eastern KS. This is occurring in the
vicinity of an inverted surface trough/convergence zone and near a
zone of 850 hPa confluence/convergence. Precipitable water values
are 1.75-2". Effective bulk shear is 40-60 kts. MU CAPE is
1000-2000 J/kg.

The 00z REFS/HREF have a signal for this activity which is
expected to move more or less in parallel with the activity
farther south near the KS/OK border. The environmental parameters
support hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
wherever cells merge, train, or mesocyclones form. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flooding is possible, particularly in urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5_gb0Wo3P8UYDMyZ4QH4fcgFQfKgEVU90t5YcIXDBSabLlKHD2VDHPUZACRUa4kTAV4JllTg9TvGCHBYkfgj7JAiGhU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39159729 38859556 37379467 36989526 38409898
38949920

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 05:02:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130502
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-130730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1269
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...west-central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130500Z - 130730Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are growing in
coverage in west-central VA. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An inverted trough north-northeast of a weak low in
southwest VA along with ML CAPE of 500+ J/kg, low-level upslope
flow, and confluent 850 hPa winds have allowed for a small area of
growing convection in west-central VA. Another small area of
thunderstorms is moving east from southeast WV. Precipitable
water values are 1.75-2". Effective bulk shear of ~25 kts is
trying to align/organize the convection.

Both the 00z HREF/REFS have a small signal for this convection
which lasts for at least a couple more hours, after which the
instability in the area should exhaust. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" could lead to flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8yBLV0o2QuUYPhb6Gm4mBwm4QdWMW1PbmV3WlBgZNml_86T9koKPMuPLDM8jrg8JDJzSfkPi9xgBApHT1ZtlsHTP_cY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38637950 38427883 37787888 37297962 37528031
38168029

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 06:06:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130605
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-131203-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1270
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...in and near eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130603Z - 131203Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to widely
scattered to scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...There has been recent shower and thunderstorm
development across eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic States.
Precipitable water values of 1.5-2.25" lie across the region, with
values continue to increase across northern NJ, southeast NY, and
southern New England. ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg across the
southern and central Mid-Atlantic and 100-500 J/kg across much of
NY and northeast PA, with upward trends noted. Effective bulk
shear of 25-35 kts is spreading towards the area.

Over the next few hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
increase in coverage in the region near Chesapeake Bay and across
much of the Delaware River Valley. This is the region where 850
hPa confluence/convergence is forecast to increase/ sharpen
through the period. After sunrise, heavy rainfall is expected to
spread into the NY/NJ/CT Tri-State area as instability moves
closeby. Interior Southeast NY should see skirmishes of heavy
rainfall through the MPD period. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5"
with local totals to 4", which would be problematic in urban
areas. Flash flooding instances could be widely scattered to
scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9fM3uCRClSubV7NPaEQG5uptpuklcpYDZJn9F7vywOPz7FfQhkntmj7plCmhNDJ0HKwu5safinuPfgGR6yDmqxRSMIg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42737435 41847337 40777315 39277409 37597548
37907692 39187714 41477603

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 06:54:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130654
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-131120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1271
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Near the MO/KS/AR/OK border intersection

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130650Z - 131120Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain continue
across portions of KS and OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
additional local totals to 4" remain possible through sunrise.
This could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A group of scattered showers and thunderstorms has
shown some merging/training character as of late within zones of
850 hPa confluence. This elevated convection is occurring well
northeast of a thermal boundary down near the Red River of the
South. Precipitable water values of 1.6-1.9" lie across the
region. MU CAPE is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear of 35-55
kts is organizing the convection.

There have been indications in radar imagery that the thunderstorm
complex is starting to shrink in scale. The 00z HREF/REFS
guidance agree that this trend should continue, and show the scale
dwindling from here on out, with the heavy rain signal dropping
off around 11z. Wherever cells train, merge, or a mesocyclone
manages to form, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to
4" are possible. This could allow for isolated to widely
scattered flash flood concerns, primarily across urban areas and
places where the soils have partially saturated from the very
recent heavy rainfall.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4HfSJXzYgXUTMTfVdD7olBSnBgn-LK4pw9RWBWjPDZu4kVPICu0gGL5twfVPyQLjXiK-phqVdHRPVEYBSZx4QcC7s7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GID...GLD...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39459647 38369405 36419374 35419513 36109722
39379971

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 07:55:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 130755
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-131053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1272
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130753Z - 131053Z

Summary...A broadening area of heavy rain is developing near a
zone of surface convergence. Hourly rainfall to 2.5" could lead
to flash flooding.

Discussion...A band of thunderstorms is beginning to lengthen not
far from State College PA near a zone of surface convergence/a
weak surface low and within an area of 850 hPa confluence. MU
CAPE is ~500 J/kg, and rising. Precipitable water values are
1.75-2". Effective bulk shear is close to 25 kts.

The guidance had some signal for heavy rain in this area. This
heavy rainfall should shift east with time along with the 850 hPa
confluence zone. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are possible
within any training convective bands. This degree of heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8dLUlv51lcoOZFQl5l5E65lPwZqznXSoW9SyM2mdASI5niG4sIqRdIfCMr7bqeTPeqKCZaw9b_gCYCiK-2D2IZexi5I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42027589 41277606 40237739 39837894 40417939
41167890 41837747

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 12:02:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131202
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1273
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Eastern PA...Northern NJ...Southeast
NY...CT...RI...Central MA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131200Z - 131800Z

Summary...Widespread heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is
expected across southern New England into far eastern Pennsylvania
through the early afternoon hours. Multiple rounds of training
convection in a highly saturated environment are likely to result
in some instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a increase in
enhanced rainfall entering the outlook area from the southwest. A
pre-frontal trough axis in the vicinity of Long Island is
generating a slow moving band of convection approaching southern
Connecticut and into northeast New Jersey. The main synoptic scale
warm front farther to the south is also producing widespread heavy
rainfall over central New Jersey and south of Long Island, and
this should gradually progress slowly northward through the
remainder of the morning hours.

The overall atmospheric environment is quite conducive for
additional convection with high rainfall rates on the order of 1
to 2 inches per hour with the heaviest cells. Precipitable water
values on the order of 1.9 to 2.2 inches per the SPC mesoanalysis
are advecting north on south-southwesterly low level flow, and the
trough and warm front are acting as lifting mechanisms to enhance
rainfall. Additionally, most unstable CAPE on the order of 500-750
J/kg near the coast will further aid in producing higher rainfall
rates. Broader scale ascent is being provided by modest right
entrance upper level jet dynamics.

There is good overall agreement in the near-term CAM guidance for
a swath of 2-3 inch rainfall totals through 2 pm local time from
central Long Island to southeastern Massachusetts, with some
potential for 4+ inch maxima embedded within this corridor. A
secondary and less intense QPF maxima is also noted in some of the
guidance from the Catskills to western Massachusetts with
generally 1-2 inch totals with locally higher amounts possible.
Instances of flash flooding are likely where extended periods of
convective training and back-building develop.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Y4sQKCFzWwYBvJ6_8_LjS3x7ZJKRqM4S_Fat2GxsCcwLilTo1KzmqXyREd7QoUFZgvrr6zRbtvnTIQrrouiHDojJAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42727093 42617035 42236992 41746976 41386975
41167016 41117123 40817225 40497319 40087390
39857448 39817532 40487551 41097534 41537493
41947426 42297347 42597255 42717160

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 17:48:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 131748
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-132300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1274
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131741Z - 132300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
increase in coverage and intensity across the outlook area. Some
instances of flash flooding will be possible through the
mid-afternoon hours, particularly across vulnerable locations.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars and GOES-W visible satellite
imagery are indicating convective initiation across western
portions of the Mongollon Rim. Daytime heating is adding to an
already most and unstable boundary layer, characterized by PWs on
the order of 1 to 1.8 inches and mixed layer CAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg based on the latest SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, surface to
300 mb flow is very weak as evident from the 12Z Phoenix sounding,
and this will result in slow cell motions and therefore enhanced
rainfall rates where these cells develop.

The latest CAM guidance suite agrees well on the general placement
of most concentrated thunderstorm activity across far southern
Utah into north-central Arizona, but differ more on overall
magnitude of the QPF maxima. The RRFS is generally heavier with
the strongest storms, generally up to 2 inches in some instances,
whereas the HRRR is generally under an inch with those same
storms. Areas that have received heavy rainfall over the past 24
hours, along with recent burn scars and dry canyons, will be most
susceptible to potential flooding through 23Z.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_7jnRZVRHHirnk2vDQINBYn5_yNILQK1vptsgKYhmoYD7Ly2PFDUGgAr8Vbcg_yYhiTuRgz67KrmZkV50V0t88WN6QE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38091193 37791065 36311046 34371033 33171001
31960999 31311007 31341107 31591182 31971297
32791320 33691323 35051380 36481369 37601313

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 20:54:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132053
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1275
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern OH...Far Northern
WV...Western and Northern PA...Western and Southern NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132052Z - 140200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be expanding in
coverage over the next couple of hours across portions of the
Upper OH Valley through the Lower Great Lakes region and some
portions of the central Appalachians. Locally heavy rainfall rates
and wet/saturated antecedent conditions will support a concern
this evening for isolated areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with radar data shows scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms
developing and expanding in coverage across portions of central
and eastern OH through northwest PA and into western NY.

This activity is developing along and ahead of a cold front that
is bumping up against a moist and unstable airmass characterized
by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and PWs locally as high as
1.5 inches. Some relatively strong shear is in place over the
region with as much as 40 to 50 kts of effective bulk shear, and
this will support some storm organization over the next few hours
as late-afternoon heating/instability persists ahead of the cold
front.

Gradually this activity will advance off to the east, with the
activity eventually becoming more prevalent across eastern OH
through northwest PA and southwest NY where instability is rather
well established. The environment is conducive for some rainfall
rates of up to 1.5 inches/hour, and some hires model CAMs suggest
a threat through this evening of spotty 2 to 3 inch rainfall
totals where some localized cell-training sets up. This is
suggested with the orientation of the deeper layer steering flow
relative to the current convection, so some of these highly
localized heavier totals seems plausible.

Given the wet and locally saturated soil conditions and already
elevated streamflows across the region from recent rainfall, these
additional rains this evening may support at least an isolated
threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7OGO4JlTMiaiiac4Qb59ieh7VX7q2WgwwEWw7TBguPxMkBnZ0XX091vgQtVSlBIwVIPxnhrkZsPr2izhef2yqbe14bw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43717562 43707441 43147376 42107446 41687498
41377601 41047723 40217865 39168024 38868271
39218381 39748421 40118389 40918272 41298162
41808004 42417929 43077863 43367751 43507672

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 13 23:07:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 132307
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-140405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1276
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132305Z - 140405Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the evening hours across areas of southern UT down
through most of AZ. Some additional isolated areas of flash
flooding will be possible for the normally dry washes, burn scars
and slot canyon areas.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery continues to
show mainly scattered areas of cold-topped shower and thunderstorm
activity across the Southwest U.S. with some of the better focus
of this convection situated across southern UT and northern AZ,
and to some extent portions of central to southeast AZ.

SBCAPE values remain rather high with values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg
in place. This coupled with the rather anomalous PW environment
with values as high as 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal
will continue to support the stronger thunderstorms producing
rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour.

The ongoing activity is largely being driven by the diurnal
heating cycle with the aid of orographics and some localized
outflow/mesoscale boundary collisions. Given the favorable
thermodynamic environment that is in place, the threat of
scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms should continue for at
least a few more hours before sufficient convective overturning
and boundary layer cooling takes place to weaken the instability
profiles.

Some additional spotty 2+ inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out
with the current cold-topped convection and especially where some
of these cells tend to be slow-moving and anchored near areas of
higher terrain. This will support an additional threat of isolated
flash flooding for a few more hours as a result. The normally dry
washes, burn scars, and slot canyons will remain at risk of seeing
these impacts including areas well removed and downstream from
where the heaviest rainfall has actually occurred.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7GeMBZcesm4iMqmAoqws31Pt4y4el75UyYwK591Obe5o5zt1_NEE7wrYuDh1ruC9aTPx1mWuAO7vU7J44jN2XKXDky4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38211039 37950986 37140945 35720950 34820916
33850890 33030885 32090885 31350921 31101019
31381145 32021220 33171248 33951271 34691337
35801357 36941322 37641239 38131132

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 03:45:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140345
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140843-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1277
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southeast AZ & Southwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140343Z - 140843Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms persist across Southeast AZ
and are increasing in coverage in southwest NM while additional
activity exists near El Paso TX. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across
far southeast AZ and are growing in coverage across southwest NM.
Other thunderstorms lurk near El Paso TX. The region is
sandwiched between a Western Trough aloft and an incoming upper
level low retrograding across northern MX and lies within a region
of 700 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values are 1.75"+ in
the Lower AZ Deserts and 1-1.25" at elevation. CIN has set in; MU
CAPE is 500-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is ~20 kts.

Both the 00z HREF and 00z REFS guidance keep convection going for
several more hours before some fading occurs at 08z or so. There
appears to be some westward shift in the 700 hPa confluence axis
with time, so there should be a general westward drift/shift in
group thunderstorm motion, which could be hastened by instability
exhaustion. While the guidance flares convection back up at some
point after 10z, with the nearby upper trough and upper low
impinging on the region from the southeast, it's unclear if a
convective break will actually occur. Hourly rain amounts are
possible where cells are stationary, manage to train, or merge.
This could lead to flash flooding in burn scars, arroyos/dry
washes, slot/box canyons, and urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-iBm1mRB_lNbve7Y_CgZ6HQf2O76UlaZB9uP-STMbFPklxVkYCDhYdcPZjcfznkQVw3jMIARNKwUZjsL_4pr4wUgf8U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33450833 32910634 31300579 31160861 31131092
32181167 33411149

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 06:20:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140620
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-141218-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1278
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of MO, KS, IA, & NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140618Z - 141218Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form in and
near southeast NE. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A warm air advection pattern is strengthening across
the region as an 850 hPa warm front advances through northern KS.
The surface warm front lies farther to the southwest across
western KS and eastern CO. New shower and thunderstorm activity
is developing in a MU CAPE gradient, with values up to 2000 J/kg
upstream. There is a hint of backbuilding to the convective
pattern, even at this early stage. The timing of its formation
appears to be splitting the difference between the 00z HREF and
00z REFS timing for 0.5"+ in an hour. Effective bulk shear of 40
kts exists here. Precipitable water values are 1.25-1.5", and
rising. The 700 hPa 12C isotherm is not far to the west of the
new convective development.

The 850 hPa warm front passes through in a few hours, which leads
to confluence within its warm sector at that level, within a
regime of strengthening southwest flow across portions of
southeast NE with time. This brings precipitable water values up
to 1.75-2" rather quickly. This would also draw increased
instability from the stronger portion of the pool to the
southwest. The 1000-500 hPa thickness pattern becomes
increasingly difluent with time, implying the possibility of an
organized convective cluster. With time, there is an expectation
for a continued increase in cell coverage, with the potential for
mesocyclone formation given the increasing effective bulk shear
regionally. At some point, this could act to sharpen the
instability gradient. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible by 12z where cells train, merge, or
mesocyclones form. This could exceed the three hourly flash flood
guidance on an isolated to widely scattered basis.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!438KrywHrYjHpjprfmouh28q6vbFQIHKRYLeS9Lf1PLhATnpMOvcTrOPCrVVht-MAZeCYt0Xs6nb2xUQvVaNx9JXv5M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42449662 40269385 39049448 39609640 41399771

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 08:12:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140811
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-141410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwest NM & AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140810Z - 141410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into
the morning hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
the region on the southeast side of a Western Upper Level Trough
and to the northwest of a retrograding upper level low in northern
MX. Precipitable water values remain 1-1.25" at elevation and
1.75" in the Lower Deserts of AZ. MU CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg near
the thunderstorms. Effective bulk shear is 20 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS suggest that after a relative minimum of
activity over the next couple hours that convection will
reinvigorate across a decent portion of southeast AZ. There is
some indication in the guidance that a low level boundary/possible
outflow boundary pushes west to northwest into an area of
1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE, which could cause the forecast uptick.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" remain possible where cells are
stationary, merge, or manage to train. This would be problematic
in burn scars, urban areas, slot/box canyons, and dry
washes/arroyos.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5hPCWHHRiRxl3xzfgAi6DssZnHLHLWkKTXjIexKd_rIq3QW9BbmkVYfkDA1gVk3wvNokyVET8oBUTciBU0YEKT2f3Rs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...DMX...EAX...EPZ...FGZ...FSD...GID...OAX... PSR...TOP...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42449662 40269385 39049448 39609640 41399771

35321131 34681063 34540948 35320871 34920758
33750650 32550653 31280818 31161007 31351115
32211200 33051254 34741241

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 09:05:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 140904
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-141410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Corrected for Coding issue

Areas affected...portions of southwest NM & AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140810Z - 141410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into
the morning hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
the region on the southeast side of a Western Upper Level Trough
and to the northwest of a retrograding upper level low in northern
MX. Precipitable water values remain 1-1.25" at elevation and
1.75" in the Lower Deserts of AZ. MU CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg near
the thunderstorms. Effective bulk shear is 20 kts.

The 00z HREF/REFS suggest that after a relative minimum of
activity over the next couple hours that convection will
reinvigorate across a decent portion of southeast AZ. There is
some indication in the guidance that a low level boundary/possible
outflow boundary pushes west to northwest into an area of
1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE, which could cause the forecast uptick.
Hourly rain amounts to 2" remain possible where cells are
stationary, merge, or manage to train. This would be problematic
in burn scars, urban areas, slot/box canyons, and dry
washes/arroyos.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!80lvpNt64pO8locddRs3LNK3WOcbbXW-y0b221-Ezh3r-1ePP6Zu0PAGDs0BTGLxEIveFVV3PBSavU1ViJhQZ_5z_JI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35321131 34681063 34540948 35320871 34920758
33750650 32550653 31280818 31161007 31351115
32211200 33051254 34741241

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 11:13:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141113
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-141600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1280
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Far Southwest
Minnesota...Northwest Iowa...Far Northeast Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141110Z - 141600Z

SUMMARY...Northward expansion of warm-advection with approaching
mid-level energy to maintain localized 1.5"/hr rates and localized
2-3" totals as it nears lower FFG areas further east.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop shows the northward expansion
of the warm advective over-running induced convection shows some
overall warming as more individualized cores start to further
cool. This occurred with a secondary surge of warm-advection,
speed increase over the last hour or so noted by increased
upstream (SW) low Cu/Tcu field starting to intersect with the
first convective wave. VWP also shows a steady increase of
southerly 850mb winds while maintaining the favorable veered low
level shear environment for weak rotating updrafts. This further
helps to isolate, but concentrate moisture flux to increase
rainfall efficiency as well. Total PWats to 1.75" and a solid
remaining core of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE upstream will support localized
1.5"/hr rates occasionally ticking up toward 2" in a very
transient sense both spatially and temporally.

While areas further west over SW SD have higher FFG, the slow
eastward progression of the line will start intersecting an axis
of lower FFG values (<1.5"/hr) from Kingsbury/Brookings county south-southeastward into Western IA, where values lower further.
Forward progression will continue to be slow to allow for for
increased residency for localized streaks of 2-3" totals which
even press 3hr FFG values that range below 2.5".

To further support localized flash flooding potential, the deep
layer WAA moisture flux convergence will continue to maintain as
the core of the mid-level shortwave continues to advance
northeastward across the Dakotas ahead of the main closed low
later today. This should maintain the strong LLJ and veered
profile for a few more hours before becoming more progressive
toward 15z. Additional glancing dPVA influence may even further
more isolated thunderstorm activity upstream cross central to
east-central SD, that may intersect areas of this earlier WAA
activity, further expanding the area of isolated low-end flash
flooding risk this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9xYQ6HCn8Tdg7C0HOfJHmH4DVNKQ50LCztnsOzjDVT7w8ka5FNz56qeaac2dhepZw5R7WDfmRyRZEjav52j331_gszo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FSD...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45209749 45109614 44359545 42989489 42289481
41849549 41939651 42479717 43429789 44209859
44919846

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 11:51:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141151
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-141700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1281
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...Southeast NEB...Northeast
Kansas...Northwest Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141150Z - 141700Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding potential continues as focus shifts
southward to more favorable repeating/training axis for a few more
hours. Additional 2-3" totals possible through late morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um shows the NNW to SSE oriented
warm-advective convection has been showing a general warming trend
as diurnal peak has passed and the 800-700mb warm-advection
reduces as the LLJ slacks as the driving shortwave moves more
northeast. However, the southern flank of the convective
complex, likely driven by a eastward surface to boundary layer
reinforcement helped to steepen isentropic ascent plane combined
with outflow from the elevated cells northward. As such, there
remains a solid east to west convective line, with a lower LFC
from Livingston to Daviess to Andrew county in NW MO across to
Marshall county KS. VWP shows solid veering (SE-SW) in the
925-850mb layer at 25-45kts through depth to intersect this
boundary providing that lower convective initiation, as well as,
unobstructed ascent of an axis of conditionally unstable air with
MUCAPE around 1000-1250 J/kg. Given solid available sfc to 700mb
moisture (per CIRA LPW), cells will continue to be capable of
1.75"/hr but reduce with further slacking of LLJ winds over the
next few hours. The orientation of the line from west to east
and weak WSW to ENE steering flow should allow for
repeating/training profiles for localized streak or two of
additional 2-3". Given this is close to or over areas already
affected, flash flooding potential is likely to continue and
possible to expand in a few adjacent areas in NW MO.

Additionally, the eastern edge of the LLJ axis intersects the
upwind edge so additional TCu and CBs are developing across NE KS
into SE NEB; though 3.9um SWIR suggests the ascent plane is
starting to be more flat across E NEB. Still, any additional
upstream redevelopment across areas already heavily affected could
maintain ongoing flooding conditions through the Missouri River
Valley. As an overall pattern, this evolution has been closest to
the the 00z ARW solution though a hour or so faster, given this, a
16-17z ending time frame seems more plausible than other solutions
that have been continuously trying to end the event too quickly in
line with typical early morning WAA known biases.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!--QcDAWLrnO_SVduNmsZwNidbrsziCWW9tj8bHAxGkWd1XcSl54-EnzUD2lqoBlxmX052h1wvG8e0DFxGYXUOoFbLC4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42149546 41859433 40369275 39569280 39269413
39319552 39539635 39989664 40609652 41339622
41949615

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 18:01:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 141759
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-150000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1282
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ..Western & Central NM...Southwest
CO...Far Southeast UT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141800Z - 150000Z

SUMMARY...Increased moisture within confluent low level return
flow resulting in scattered monsoon thunderstorms with rates of
1-1.5"/hr and localized spots of up to 2" totals and possible
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite denotes tightening of abnormal return
moisture stream from the sub-tropical Pacific and some weak Gulf
influence through northern Old Mexico becoming confluent across
the AZ/NM borderlands. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis notes enhanced
absolute moisture values with 850-700mb moisture around and above
.75" reaching as far north as the E San Francisco Plateau, while
700-500mb, also well above normal over .5"-.6" but centered a bit
further east along and east of the SE AZ border into central NM.
With strengthening ridge to southeast and upstream jet/shortwave
energy across the Great Basin, this will further tighten
vertically as well as increase over moisture flux. Current
placement of right entrance to 70+ kt 3H jet over the Four Corner
region is providing stronger ascent for increased over coverage at
this time. CIRA LVT values are much higher in the stronger jet
further north in the Central Rockies, but with 700mb flow
increasing to 20-25kts through the moisture axis should support
more than sufficient flux near cloud base for efficient rainfall
production.

Surface observations rising into the low to mid 90s already in the
south and 70s+ over the northern Plateau, has seen a steady
increase of MLCAPEs across the region with a slow erosion of CINH
from the Four Corners southward. MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg still
remained a bit more capped in SE AZ and are expected to further
increase toward 2500-3000 J/kg toward peak heating. As such,
mountain circulation convection is starting to develop (including
through the Sacramento Range at the far periphery of the best
moisture) and will slowly increasing in efficiency as initial
downdrafts saturate the sub-cloud drier air, but as secondary
development converging outflow boundaries will increase the
overall coverage and rainfall efficiency toward 21-22z. Rates of
1"/hr will increase to 1.5"/hr and while mean flow is fairly solid
at 20-30kts toward the north-northeast, cell motions will remain
fairly parallel to the moisture and instability axis for a few accidental/random repeats that may allow for isolated to widely
scattered incidents of up to 2"+. Given strength of
updrafts/downdrafts and resulting rain-rates over hard/rocky
ground conditions similar widely scattered to scattered incidents
of flash flooding will be considered possible through the
afternoon into evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7rFyhXMAzIgJoA6bEag1g6hzY0-0NaF7GQTdqpMlfm8PTl5ZWeSt5Dihn4LRmWFhDsPcKKCOli333Bq-jzZ-uCzBjlo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38140748 37180632 36800512 34990521 34080505
33200493 32770542 32850584 33210665 32690724
31710787 31280807 31200944 31251123 31611215
32351232 33391155 34121173 35111192 35951157
36791093 36990997 37700976

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 23:16:32 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142316
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-150515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1284
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southeast to East-Central AZ...Western and
Northern NM...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142315Z - 150515Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will continue going
into the evening hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are
likely which may include some locally significant impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive area of cold-topped convection impacting areas of
southeast AZ through western and northern NM and into southern CO.
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are especially concentrated right
now across parts of central NM (including around the Albuquerque
vicinity) and also far southwest CO near the NM border where there
has been some strong overshooting top activity noted over the last
hour.

A substantial axis of deep monsoonal moisture and instability is
in place across the region with PWATs a solid 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. OSPO ALPW data shows strong 700/500 mb
moisture concentrations which would be in the cloud-bearing layer
and supportive of efficient high-end rainfall rate potential. Much
of this moisture has origins from deep down across western Mexico
with moisture advancing north and northeast around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge over the southern U.S.

Enhanced instability is in place with MLCAPE values as high as
1500 to 2000 J/kg, and more recently the greatest instability has
been seen pooling across southeast AZ where there are already
locally focused areas of stronger thunderstorms as a result of
orographics and related differential heating boundaries.

Meanwhile, the concentrated areas of convection over central and
northern NM and into southern CO have a bit more of a dynamical
component to them as there is the presence of right-entrance
region upper-jet divergence/forcing that is yielding deeper layer
ascent. This along with the orographics and instability profiles
have been yielding some organized bands of strong convection.

Given the very moist and unstable environment, rainfall rates over
the next several hours will still be capable of reaching 2
inches/hour, and some additional localized rainfall amounts of 3
to 4 inches will be possible where any cell-training occurs.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely going through the
evening hours, and this will pose a threat for locally significant
impacts for the normally dry washes, slot/box canyon areas, and
burn scar locations. Urban flash flooding will also be a concern
from these heavier rainfall rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-ZDWwl0cXQHwRhY6AhHi4agYjhDpZqaOq3cL3c7M3munn4iVF3649pNvhFmL6ybOcvWqCJ3-qi41Ib3KzZKci1B0X-w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38250517 37680417 36410390 35160435 33960569
32990687 31920764 31330809 31140900 31091051
31371162 31631233 32231254 32711237 33251176
33921096 34961013 36250957 37510817 38240664

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 23:28:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142327
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-150515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1283
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
726 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southeast to East-Central AZ...Western and
Northern NM...Southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142315Z - 150515Z

SUMMARY...Expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms with
high rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will continue going
into the evening hours. Additional areas of flash flooding are
likely which may include some locally significant impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive area of cold-topped convection impacting areas of
southeast AZ through western and northern NM and into southern CO.
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are especially concentrated right
now across parts of central NM (including around the Albuquerque
vicinity) and also far southwest CO near the NM border where there
has been some strong overshooting top activity noted over the last
hour.

A substantial axis of deep monsoonal moisture and instability is
in place across the region with PWATs a solid 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal. OSPO ALPW data shows strong 700/500 mb
moisture concentrations which would be in the cloud-bearing layer
and supportive of efficient high-end rainfall rate potential. Much
of this moisture has origins from deep down across western Mexico
with moisture advancing north and northeast around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge over the southern U.S.

Enhanced instability is in place with MLCAPE values as high as
1500 to 2000 J/kg, and more recently the greatest instability has
been seen pooling across southeast AZ where there are already
locally focused areas of stronger thunderstorms as a result of
orographics and related differential heating boundaries.

Meanwhile, the concentrated areas of convection over central and
northern NM and into southern CO have a bit more of a dynamical
component to them as there is the presence of right-entrance
region upper-jet divergence/forcing that is yielding deeper layer
ascent. This along with the orographics and instability profiles
have been yielding some organized bands of strong convection.

Given the very moist and unstable environment, rainfall rates over
the next several hours will still be capable of reaching 2
inches/hour, and some additional localized rainfall amounts of 3
to 4 inches will be possible where any cell-training occurs.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely going through the
evening hours, and this will pose a threat for locally significant
impacts for the normally dry washes, slot/box canyon areas, and
burn scar locations. Urban flash flooding will also be a concern
from these heavier rainfall rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-5XmIg9Pd_XKZjIAEHdtlbAGvKUkClvL6Vtp-X6clhDWQ-p7wEJ6r8X8kROGoNsW-2StuhMXsZQueg6QRU2QicxPdH4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38250517 37680417 36410390 35160435 33960569
32990687 31920764 31330809 31140900 31091051
31371162 31631233 32231254 32711237 33251176
33921096 34961013 36250957 37510817 38240664

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 14 23:54:44 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 142354
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1284
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...Southeast NE...Western and Central IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 142353Z - 150545Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be expanding in
coverage this evening with some cell-training concerns. This
coupled with high rainfall rates and moist antecedent conditions
will support a gradual likelihood for areas of flash flooding
going into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with radar and
surface observations shows an expanding southwest to northeast
axis of increasingly heavy showers and thunderstorms across
north-central KS and southeast NE which is expected to develop off
to the northeast into western and central IA over the next several
hours.

The activity is focusing within a channel of focused mid to
upper-level moisture transport which includes a substantial
northeast advance of monsoonal moisture out of the Southwest U.S.
and out across the central Plains. This is occurring as a deep
layer trough ejects across the northern Plains and allows for a
strong upper-jet to advance across the north-central Plains and
adjacent areas of the Midwest as a frontal system also ejects out
across these areas.

Warm sector MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500+ J/kg are in place
across northeast KS, southeast NE and southwest IA with convergent
low-level southwest flow. A low-level jet will be strengthening
going into the overnight hours with magnitudes reaching 50+ kts,
and this enhanced moisture transport and related warm air
advection interacting with the aforementioned frontal system will
foster an increasingly focused axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching upwards of 2
inches/hour, and the latest hires CAMs from the HREF and REFS
supports some storm totals through 06Z of as much as 3 to 5
inches. This will largely be supported by an environment conducive
for cell-training as convection becomes aligned with the deeper
layer steering flow.

Given the locally moist antecedent conditions and these rainfall
totals going into the overnight hours, areas of flash flooding
will gradually become likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vRqPbU5lWIJXsIreaWZzISJtdQOzu0Y94zUmy1OV3zY23MIpXp_SlalroTmkflztvPmA15jWCcQyyn1OeVvpRs-Mrc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43009356 42919256 42199188 41389280 40579459
40089614 39899764 40119824 40599821 41399720
42029603 42719473

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 03:12:08 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150311
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-150909-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1285
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1110 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeast IA & WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150309Z - 150909Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms moving across portions of
northeast IA and WI are slowly saturating soils. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A broken band of showers and thunderstorms is aligned
from northeast IA across portions of central WI, which is
occasionally leading to hourly amounts to 1-1.5". It is also
leading to a modest thermal boundary across northern IA and
central WI into the Mitt of MI. This is occurring within a regime
of confluent 850 hPa flow and precipitable water values of
1.75-2". MU CAPE is 500-1000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is ~40
kts.

The three hour flash flood guidance is on a decline across central
WI due to recent, fairly long duration heavy rains. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible over the next
six hours as the band shifts slowly southward due to cell
training. Random mesocyclones are also possible. This degree of
rainfall could lead to flash flooding over saturating soils and
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-kWRn0bowRHkogR3MEzeSxxf-zJaYzeBErk08kZSjlQygXy33crArfgSTXYiQ8WTit3M_dsAbQSZk6E-jR0dscWlBnk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...GRR...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44768976 44758647 43778586 42388837 42499267
44149173

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 03:44:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-151000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1286
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1142 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ, NM, & far west TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150400Z - 151000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to contract in
scale over the next six hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2" could
lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...The combination of an upper level low south of the TX
Big Bend and a shortwave moving through southeast CA & southern NV
is helping to sponsor upper level divergence across the region.
CIN has developed regionally; MU CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg is still
available for convective development. Effective bulk shear is
30-35 kts near the Four Corners, with less values farther to the
south.

The 00z HREF/REFS show a decreasing footprint to heavy rainfall
overnight, though the disagree on how much it will reduce. Some
westward motion across AZ to the remaining convection is possible
as 700 hPa convergence shifts westward across the region. Enough
convective activity should remain around for hourly rain amounts
to 2" where cells are stationary, merge, or manage to train. This
would be most problematic in urban areas, dry washes/ arroyos,
burn scars, and slot/box canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-RpXcja_FuOkNoT-rTZleTM1GNencrIi4l9bTIT3J9YWUl9GA7nHYy13rgnhRSjfmriOjJc7N4ExY5PBKkwYO0jOwMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37570837 37240749 36160680 35380704 34630762
34100717 33970604 33500591 32680575 30990567
31060944 31121148 33101285 35381074 36681136
37420899

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 04:33:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150433
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-151000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1287
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern NE, IA, & far northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150432Z - 151000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to build upscale
as they move east into southern IA/northwesternmost MO. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which
would lead to widely scattered to scattered instances of flash
flooding.

Discussion...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have begun
to develop across southern NE. Divergence aloft in this area is
occurring under the base of a deep layer low just north of eastern
ND. Precipitable water values of 1.75-2.25" exist here. CIN has
developed regionally; MU CAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg exists, with the
highest pocket near St. Joseph MO. Effective bulk shear is 30-50
kts.

With time, 850 hPa confluence/convergence is expected to sharpen
as a pair of surface boundaries merge across the region. This
could allow for more effective rainfall production. Given the
available parameters, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible. This would lead to widely scattered to
scattered instances of flash flooding where soils are increasingly
saturated near the MO/IA/NE border junction and in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7vP-wTzNJFw5OgS6nCGzMZshqzYkU77mBZ0e694URfy2CXROKXRBleGEMGQ4fzEpaciKZgWHKO2j3lXCUqJTOG6LqoE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42059314 41619056 40659275 40339570 40499940
41169993

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 08:14:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150814
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-151401-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1288
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Midwest/Corn Belt

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150811Z - 151401Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some training
character. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
could lead to flash flooding over saturating soils and urban areas.

Discussion...Training bands of showers and thunderstorms continue
primarily from southeast NE across portions of southern and
central IA within a region of 850 hPa confluence. Hourly rain
amounts have eclipsed 2" at times per radar imagery. A broadening
area of 3-6" has fallen over the 26 hours, which is leading to
some degree of soil saturation. Precipitable water values are
1.5-2.25" regionally. MU CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg remains here.
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts is helping to organize
convection, including a random mesocyclone at times.

The 00z HREF/REFS is unclear when the coverage of the heavy
rainfall is expected to peak -- it could be anytime in the next
2-3 hours. The 00z GFS-based Galvez-Davison index argrees in the
areal extend of heavy rainfall maximizing sometime around 09z.
Thereafter, the scope of the heavy rain footprint should begin to
shrink with time, possibly due to the training band breaking down
into a series of forward propagating convective arcs. By 14z, a
bulk of this specific heavy rain event should have passed. For as
long as cell training can continue, hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
with additional local totals to 4" remain possible, which could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas and over increasingly
saturated soils.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6dSQXn_gT5aWgeRlLuRX6Pz-ByriEHxUzfsSUfq_OvIsdtmm4LE4l8Q4JBcR9iQbJDZprMnW4I-NBvvUi_wr2ah_3UI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...GID...ILX...LOT...MKX...
OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43139110 42878770 41408792 40629139 40699815
42079712

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 08:39:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 150839
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-151436-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1289
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150836Z - 151436Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are attempting to redevelop
over portions of central and eastern AZ. Hourly rain amounts to
2" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...The 00z HREF/REFS both indicated that after a period
of minimum that an early morning convective uptick could occur.
That appears to be starting to happen as an upper level shortwave
moves into northwest AZ and interacts with a pool of 1000-2000
J/kg MU CAPE. Effective bulk shear is 25 kts near and ahead of
the incoming shortwave. Precipitable water values remain high,
close to 1" in portions of the Mogollon Rim and 1.75" in the Lower
Deserts.

While the 00z HREF/REFS both had this signal, they disagree as to
how strong of a heavy rain signal this becomes, which leads to
greater uncertainty than usual on the heavy rainfall potential.
Should cell coverage continue to increase sufficiently, hourly
rain amounts to 2" would be possible where cells manage to
backbuild, train, or merge. This could cause flash flooding in
urban areas, burn scars, dry washes/arroyos, and box/slot canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-onVim8VOwTbeJQFgFbSPVQGqOr-dKoqiwUEotX1vA_GPrYRhTgvmf_uB3ojDj5JYznw39P2E3zu6R6jsUxrJGvBje4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35811002 35320815 34070817 33330874 32770911
32030979 31821030 31771094 32521214 34171338
34911316 35571181

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 18:29:58 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151829
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1290
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Northernwest &Central New Mexico...Northeast
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151830Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...Mountain thunderstorms to expand in coverage within deep
Monsoonal moisture stream to support focused 1.25"/hr rates and
spotty scattered totals up to 2" may support localized incidents
of flash flooding through early evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite once again shows consistent plume of
southwesterly monsoonal moisture stream concentrated between the
South-central US ridge and the broader Northwestern US longwave
trof. Broad right entrance ascent pattern over the Four Corners
has maintained through much of the last day or with a right branch
to the 70-90kt jet core over central CO and sharp SW to NE ridge
from near El Paso across SE NM into the TX Panhandle showing solid
ageostrophic flow to support ascent. Embedded within are the
remains of the MCV from last night's cluster centered over W
Valencia county, which has resulted in increased overall cloud
coverage and suppression of instability rebound this morning;
while the core of the deep layer moisture (per CIRA LPW is more
WSW to ENE oriented across NM into SE CO, though stronger
southerly flow is recharging the upstream areas of SE AZ into the
eastern Mogollon Rim supporting TPW of 1.25" through southern
AZ/NM and through the lower elevations of the upper Rio Grande
Valley. As such, best instability up to 2000 J/kg reamains along
the northwest and western sides of the MCV's inner core cloud
cover.

GOES-E Visible loop shows, increasing mountain clouds around this
periphery including the eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mtns and
Mogollon Mts to the west, Sangre de Cristo and southern Rockies in
N NM and lesser so upslope along the Sacramento Range in the east.
Overall 850-700mb flow is weaker than yesterday with slightly
reduced flux values per CIRA LVT, though stronger further west,
suggests overall activity may be a bit reduced in coverage and
intensity, but widely scattered cells capable of a quick
1-1.25"/hr and slow overall motions (resulting in outflows that
may trigger secondary development) may reside in any given
location for an isolated to widely scattered spot or two of 2".
Rocky, potentailly steep ground condtions (and urban locales)
would be most prone to quick run-off and localize incidents of
possible flash flooding through the late evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4JxSyYj8FD6BZygw731_prRdE296OkkVfXs5KY7GbTTafETZJ2Eyug69TciSvqvEplgB1t6Lwbjv8-xxfJKOkl2CDgg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36970744 36960577 36820471 35530493 33530506
32640549 33110607 33730655 34070670 34190694
34080721 33890734 33280752 33000826 33130884
33680887 33890915 34241082 35221082 36620974
36940883

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 18:57:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 151856
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1290...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Corrected for Areas affected

Areas affected...Northwest & Central New Mexico...Northeast
Arizona...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151830Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...Mountain thunderstorms to expand in coverage within deep
Monsoonal moisture stream to support focused 1.25"/hr rates and
spotty scattered totals up to 2" may support localized incidents
of flash flooding through early evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite once again shows consistent plume of
southwesterly monsoonal moisture stream concentrated between the
South-central US ridge and the broader Northwestern US longwave
trof. Broad right entrance ascent pattern over the Four Corners
has maintained through much of the last day or with a right branch
to the 70-90kt jet core over central CO and sharp SW to NE ridge
from near El Paso across SE NM into the TX Panhandle showing solid
ageostrophic flow to support ascent. Embedded within are the
remains of the MCV from last night's cluster centered over W
Valencia county, which has resulted in increased overall cloud
coverage and suppression of instability rebound this morning;
while the core of the deep layer moisture (per CIRA LPW is more
WSW to ENE oriented across NM into SE CO, though stronger
southerly flow is recharging the upstream areas of SE AZ into the
eastern Mogollon Rim supporting TPW of 1.25" through southern
AZ/NM and through the lower elevations of the upper Rio Grande
Valley. As such, best instability up to 2000 J/kg remains along
the northwest and western sides of the MCV's inner core cloud
cover.

GOES-E Visible loop shows, increasing mountain clouds around this
periphery including the eastern Mogollon Rim, White Mtns and
Mogollon Mts to the west, Sangre de Cristo and southern Rockies in
N NM and lesser so upslope along the Sacramento Range in the east.
Overall 850-700mb flow is weaker than yesterday with slightly
reduced flux values per CIRA LVT, though stronger further west,
suggests overall activity may be a bit reduced in coverage and
intensity, but widely scattered cells capable of a quick
1-1.25"/hr and slow overall motions (resulting in outflows that
may trigger secondary development) may reside in any given
location for an isolated to widely scattered spot or two of 2".
Rocky, potentially steep ground conditions (and urban locales)
would be most prone to quick run-off and localize incidents of
possible flash flooding through the late evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9uxlNhGv7O0pfnJyHrhzNhaQYuE34W73CajX6GoKW7JETPIkBYkkU4mtLzmabqVcWbK5NM8h_CFV2IZFVbkZFinT7YI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36970744 36960577 36820471 35530493 33530506
32640549 33110607 33730655 34070670 34190694
34080721 33890734 33280752 33000826 33130884
33680887 33890915 34241082 35221082 36620974
36940883

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 20:54:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152054
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1291
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Northern AZ...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152051Z - 160200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity across the region this afternoon. Hourly
rain amounts to 1.5 inches are possible, which could lead to some
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars and satellite imagery are
indicating persistent showers and thunderstorms developing from
far northern Arizona into southeastern Utah and southwestern
Colorado. This is co-located with increasing PWs to near 1 inch
and slightly above, and mixed layer CAPE on the order of 600-1200
J/kg based on recent SPC mesoanalysis. Although the relatively
progressive cell motions are an overall mitigating factor, some of
these cells are back-building and therefore leading to some
instances of training convection that is leading to locally higher
rainfall rates, perhaps reaching 1-2 inches per hour.

The latest CAM guidance suite is probably a little underdone with
the QPF through the remainder of the afternoon based on recent
radar trends. Both the RRFS and HREF neighborhood exceedance
probabilities approach 25 percent in some cases, and some
additional localized instances of flash flooding will be possible
through 2Z this evening, particularly for burn scars, canyons, and
arroyos.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5oKX3hvohumGklg3Hkaf49Gw-kSkeM6xQotCD9LFftmKHRmXDhM2kGTifHDmftNipSUjqWzYDcC7JEgfZaoIoUBORa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39510717 39070642 38550618 37800625 37250650
37080676 37040744 37040846 36960912 36780966
36231022 35741061 35071100 35141139 35331194
35851250 36471276 37351279 38111245 38531208
38891148 39141043 39400911

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 22:01:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152201
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1292
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Western OK...Central KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152159Z - 160300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms developing
near a strong cold front will be capable of producing rainfall
rates exceeding two inches per hour at times. This may lead to
some instances of flash flooding through 3Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a rapid
increase in convection along and ahead of a slow moving and strong
cold front. Infrared satellite imagery is showing expanding anvil
canopies with sustained strong updrafts with the stronger storm
cells. These storms are forming in a conducive environment for
heavy rainfall, with a corridor of enhanced PWs of 1.75 to 2
inches, and mixed layer CAPE approaching 3000 J/kg based on the
latest SPC mesoanalysis. The 18Z RAOB from Amarillo generally
light and nearly unidirectional flow fron the southwest from the
surface to 300mb, and this type of wind profile will allow for
some convective back-building that could enhance hourly rainfall
rates up to 2 inches or more per hour in some cases.

The latest CAM guidance is showing a relatively narrow but
concentrated axis of enhanced rainfall through the early to mid
evening hours, oriented from southwest to northeast. The RRFS has
scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4 inches, and the HRRR
slightly less with generally 1-3 inches, and most of this would
likely fall within a 2 hour time period for any given location
affected. Therefore, some instances of flash flooding will be
possible through 3Z this evening.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8ywgt14LJGxre3M7Rn5dEhgKvbWljAg56XuyJMAaI_mSRjLxJgQNMMEJooxaV85qrlzwqYjWIfLxugBddxWJ4NB0fLk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38189702 38109649 37719641 37149688 36379806
35729895 34749998 34030057 33390106 32320213
32500296 33700270 34610206 35270140 36120043
36749962 37539851 37869797 38139734

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Sep 15 23:25:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 152325
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1293
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Northern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152323Z - 160500Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms increasing in coverage and
intensity through the evening hours in the general vicinity of a quasi-stationary surface front are likely to result in some
instances of flash flooding through midnight local time.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite imagery is indicating the beginnings
of an MCS across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Kansas with
expanding anvil canopies, and this is also supported by regional
Doppler radars across the region. There is a strong surface
frontal boundary draped across the region, and moist 925-850 mb
flow is being lifted over this boundary. In addition, a vortmax at
500mb north of Kansas City is also aiding with lift and increasing
convection coverage. The latest SPC mesoanalysis depicts a
corridor of anomalous PWs at or just above 2 inches in an
environment of mixed layer CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg.

The expectation over the next several hours is for the low level
flow to increase some as the nocturnal low level jet advects
deeper moisture into the region. The frontal boundary should
gradually sink south during the overnight hours, but elevated
convection will continue to be possible after the front passes.
The latest CAM guidance suite indicates the potential for patchy
2-4 inch rainfall maxima, and some isolated higher totals will be
possible where convective training develops. Given the combination
of favorable parameters, some instances of flash flooding are
likely through midnight CDT.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_yqU4D4u8xB_XyIghgbZywsbFZXrVOt9vS5yebeb46SjouOC12iQ-PxxYI6ZGASuMM0D5jqxW_JM04hG1nWvae7jYJo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40649424 40609289 40549158 40319048 39788968
38968968 38699054 38759197 38709361 38019536
38049643 38779753 39489744 40059677 40549565

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 00:23:52 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160023
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1294
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160021Z - 160600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms expected to persist through
the late evening hours across eastern Arizona into north-central
New Mexico with deep monsoonal moisture remaining in place. There
may still be some additional instances of flash flooding with the
most persistent convection.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars continue to indicate
scattered thunderstorms across the outlook area with multiple
instances of back-building cells. PWs generally remain in the 1.1
to 1.3 inch range with mixed layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg based on
recent SPC mesoanalysis. Weak steering flow is leading to slower
cell motions that are producing higher rainfall rates.

The CAM guidance is widely varied on the exact placement of the
convection over the next several hours, but the general theme is
for patchy swaths of 1-2 inch QPF maxima, and perhaps a few
isolated higher totals through 6Z. The threat of flash flooding
will be greatest across any urbans areas that have repeated rounds
of storms, along with burn scars, arroyos, and narrow canyons.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6yxSp-JpeJEMGTVI1uL7iArMG2wrvujM_a6t-ZrDqkH3Dr2HpFOIwc55AcoayaEbBLF7U8xFfKd9AHui0f-qfZhr2zg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37000754 36920645 36630514 36110430 35540396
34980388 34780391 34270413 34080449 34000496
34100531 34220556 34550576 35170637 35110717
34760755 34490772 33920780 33310792 32990836
32940872 32970905 33030955 33261012 33721070
34561103 35311111 35931113 36401099 36561083
36851034 36980923

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 02:04:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160202
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-160800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1295
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...central IL, northern IN, southern MI, & northern
OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160200Z - 160800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with occasional training
character have the potential for hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and
local totals to 4". Flash flooding occurrences are possible on a
isolated to widely scattered basis.

Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows subtle shortwaves moving by
Sault St. Marie MI and northwest WI at the present time, helping
to enhance difluence aloft. The primary thermal boundary
associated with elevated thunderstorm activity stretches from
northern MO around central IL, central & northeast IN, through
northwest OH at the present time. Precipitable water values are
1.5-2.1" per GPS data. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts is
helping to organize the convection. CIN has developed; MU CAPE of
500-2000 J/kg exists near the thunderstorms.

The 18z HREF/00z REFS indicates the possibility for cell coverage
to increase somewhat for another hour or two, which is also
implied by the 18z GFS-based Galvez-Davison index. The mesoscale
guidance is more agreeable on southernmost MI than elsewhere, but
there are a number of pieces of guidance missing the boat on the
ongoing activity in IN. Given the parameters available, hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible where
cells train, merge, or mesocyclones form. This could lead to
isolated to widely scattered flash flooding, particularly in urban
areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_slZCrr4nA8RxXts53qv4E2HdSxzNri74nvnGNNUdQ8lTHpAqDMdtFm-AHebBYFr9YtLW6DIWFTg3_uKvgdJbmS2zk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...
LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42758277 41718107 40778451 39908709 39148984
40909109 41518862 42258581

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 03:20:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160319
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160858-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1296
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1118 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of KS & MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160318Z - 160858Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain continue
across the region. Hourly rain amounts to 3" with additional
local totals to 5" are possible, which would lead to widely
scattered to scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Subtle upper level shortwaves across central NE and
northwest WI are helping to aid upper level difluence regionally.
There is a mix of surface based and elevated convection within a
zone of 850 hPa confluence as CIN has set in across much, but not
all, of the region. Recent radar estimates of hourly amounts have
been 2-3". Local totals thus far have been in the 3-5" range.
Precipitable water values are 2-2.25". Effective bulk shear is
30-40 kts. ML/MU CAPE maximizes around 2000 J/kg from easternmost
KS into central MO.

The 18z HREF/00z REFS show a strong signal for heavy rainfall
regionally, with probabilities of 2"+ and 3"+ high enough to imply
local maxima in the 3-5" range through 09z. Soils are saturating
due to the very recent heavy rainfall, with storms expected to
move into the patch of saturated soils from the heavy rains a
couple days ago across far northwest MO relatively soon. The
parameters available suggest that hourly rain amounts to 3" with
local totals to 5" remain in the cards. This would be highly
problematic in urban areas and where soils are saturating or have
saturated. Flash flooding is expected to be widely scattered to
scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Kidngkw6XXglZpIinIGlw5CAtMgRYkenwCxqrb9jIIduLtkbPp1lAsSWwBDbkIhlMaefOsYdtdG5RdzCbk7uaI0Q6Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LOT...LSX...OAX...
SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40848871 38829082 37099663 37699775 38899755
40699596 40849201

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 03:54:12 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160353
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-160700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1297
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Permian Basin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160351Z - 160700Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should continue for
another 2-3 hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible which could lead to additional flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar imagery has shown a series of outflow
boundaries converging near the heavy rain area northwest of
Midland TX. The surface observations show the presence of a
surface low in its vicinity and a corresponding wind convergence
zone. Some wind convergence is also noted at 700 hPa.
Precipitable water values are 1.5-1.75", quite high for this
region. CIN has set in; MU CAPE of up to 2000 J/kg exists here.
Effective bulk shear is <25 kts, and activity has appeared to be
primarily pulse in nature.

There is a signal in the 00z HREF/REFS for heavy rainfall in this
area through 06z-07z. The expectation is for convection to
attempt to gobble up/erode the area of 1000-2000 J/kg MU CAPE over
the next few hours. This could lead to cell mergers and random
cell training. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to
4" should remain possible, which could lead to additional flash
flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!83hBNW0wzq6cAxv6buRphW0fmbqAcGRO-32HtqeSiUpW6xwvrEXi_ovB6AlQjdxmWji8txGvfdBydGHb1jwIZKnJtsA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34050163 33910114 32780108 32050152 31560290
31870368 32720316 33360304 33870250

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 04:24:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160424
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-160952-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1298
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Southwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160422Z - 160952Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage
overnight. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible where cells can
sit, merge or briefly train.

Discussion...An upper level trough whose axis to moving through
northern CA and an upper level low approaching Baja California
appear to be the main causes for divergence aloft regionally. An
outflow boundary is moving through southeast NM rather quickly.
In the Gulf of CA, a small convective low is edging north-
northwest. Thunderstorms across northern Mexico have been making
a run for the International Border. For many areas, CIN has set
in; MU CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg across portions of southwest NM,
southeast AZ, and across western AZ. Effective bulk shear is
25-30 kts near the AZ/NM and AZ/UT borders.

Both the 00z HREF and REFS indicate an uptick in thunderstorm
formation overnight. The 700 hPa flow goes from anticyclonic to
cyclonic with time across southern AZ. Temperatures at 700 hPa
imply to mid-level capping inversion. A surge of moisture is
forecast to move up the Gulf of CA, adding to the already high
moisture across southern AZ. With outflow boundaries approaching
from southeast NM where some 700 hPa confluence exists and a
possible inverted trough at 700 hPa to the northeast of the small
convective low in the Gulf of CA incoming from northwest Mexico,
there are reasons to believe the increasing signal for heavy
rainfall with time in the mesoscale guidance. Should enough
convective coverage materialize, hourly rain amounts to 2" would
be possible where cells sit, merge, or manage to train. This
would be problematic in urban areas, dry washes/arroyos, burn
scars, and slot/box canyons.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!67o447yDzPS4FTRQg1KkrXDmwb1eScyzJIHJWkpxcAIY06K9-OWA00_-IFYeKrvCdEr2XC4xO8h8yyXp2v3US1uKIuw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34891191 33390870 34820737 34270412 32150479
30580495 31120617 31261055 31511141 32911268
34561321

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 06:19:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160619
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-160917-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1299
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of IN & OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160617Z - 160917Z

Summary...A band of showers and thunderstorms could persist for a
few more hours as it moves/shifts farther into western OH. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" remain possible,
which could lead to additional flash flooding.

Discussion...Elevated showers and thunderstorms have shown some
training character as the group moves east-southeast under the
base of a weak upper level shortwave across the Mitt of MI. It
lies behind an outflow boundary across portions of eastern IN and
far western OH and within a region of 850 hPa confluence.
Precipitable water values are 1.7-2" per GPS data. It is
persisting northeast of a pool of 500-1000 J/kg of MU CAPE.
Effective bulk shear is 25 kts, which is aiding its convective
organization.

The 00z HREF/REFS have no concept of this activity. The 00z ARW2
and 00z hi-res NAM have it, but somewhat to the north of where
it's located. Until it can fade, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" remain possible. Used a three hour horizon for
the time being due to uncertainty concerning how long it will
persist.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9J7VF6gpfn2a06tzbIS8uvBIZ7Cd8IvfHi7OJiBsv33ZsgIKBQvuBZ7xhYMKTIXq3gBXqXO67uGQLkJOPV0cEBoUJ-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40758524 40538364 40238308 39728343 40208626
40578666

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 08:11:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160811
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161409-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1300
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Plains & Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160809Z - 161409Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of the
Midwest into mid-morning. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with
additional totals to 4" remain possible, which could lead to
widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Weak shortwaves aloft continue to ripple poleward of
a thermal boundary stretching from the Central/Southern Plains
across portions of the Midwest and KY. Segments of thunderstorms
continue to train occasionally elevated over the boundary.
Precipitable water values of 2-2.25" exist here. MU CAPE of
500-1500 J/kg exist near and upstream of the convection.
Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts exists, which is organizing
occasional mesocyclones and periods of training.

The 00z HREF/REFS indicate that the convective band will shrink in
scale with time, with greatest persistence in and near northwest
MO. This is due to MU CAPE erosion over time in locations farther
to the east. Given the ingredients available, hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with additional totals to 4" remain possible. Due to a
broadening area of 3-6" of rainfall so far, soils are becoming
increasingly saturated from northeast KS across northern MO into
western IL, and flash flood guidance in many of those locations is
decreasing. Flash flooding occurrences could be widely scattered,
due to the shrinking heavy rain footprint over time.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8keuxRDFRC9ou4JwwRzAM4jI0Wv0z9EzfLAK7b2fHjajQ8NDvp1FkdpG4tCu74mxmc4nrFVfXVzn6cvGaFpWrO0RjU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LOT...LSX...
OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40949161 40828840 40118649 39178606 38928666
38798860 38779166 38759588 39079804 39909702
40249623 40759440

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 08:37:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160837
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-161435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1301
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...In and near portions of UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160835Z - 161435Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are slowly growing in coverage
in and near UT. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...Divergence aloft sponsored by an upper level low
forming in southern OR along with its trailing, progressive
Western Trough have led to a slow uptick in convection, first in
eastern NV and now across portions of UT. This has occurred
within a somewhat confluent flow at 700 hPa. There has been some
erosion of CIN; MU/ML CAPE is in the 1000-2000 J/kg range.
Precipitable water values are 0.75-1.25", high for the Great
Basin. Effective bulk shear of 25-45 kts is aiding convective
organization.

The mean 850-400 hPa flow is about 10 kts weaker than the 700 hPa
inflow into the area, which would tend to aid rainfall efficiency.
With the upper low in southern OR forecast to drop southward, the
low-level flow is expected to back which would normally keep
showers and thunderstorms from shifting eastward. There is good
agreement in the guidance for pockets of heavy rainfall in and
near UT into early to mid-morning. Given the ingredients
available, hourly rain amounts to 2" are possible where cells
merge or train. These amounts would be problematic in urban
areas, dry washes/arroyos, slot/box canyons, and burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!612ve20XUhVgMEKq68L2813hEVZ3yv6kOpF4U2nexcSDuZukN6aJP8lPpe3GNjWdi3IWwdS3VtTEb62Gt6lpSUQqCZ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42511038 42270977 40980861 39870727 38820744
38210816 38410913 38241062 37201284 37761445
38911438 40101268 41581204

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 09:04:02 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 160903
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-161301-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1302
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of Far West TX & Southern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160901Z - 161301Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall could lead
to flash flooding over the next four hours. Hourly rainfall
amounts to 2" remain possible.

Discussion...An outflow boundary from thunderstorms in northern MX
has led to new activity overspreading portions of the TX Big Bend
and southern NM, heading towards a surface convergence zone in NM.
The activity is entering a confluent zone at 700 hPa and lies
west of an upper level low in Central TX. MU CAPE is 500-2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is under 25 kts. Precipitable water
values are 1.25-1.5", high for the region.

The 700 hPa confluence zone is expected to shift somewhat westward
with time across NM, while the convective activity erodes the
instability field and eventually forward propagates into a more
stable air mass in central NM. Hourly rain amounts to 2" are
possible where cells merge or manage to train. The signal in the
mesoscale guidance, which is too far north, fades around 12z.
Since activity is south/less progressed than what was anticipated
by the guidance, used a four hour window going to 13z instead.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9nRydt-hD7O5TgPD68V2ShHcavoV_JWb2AQIYQc6RkgxtcSbQlx1hX6oSl6VrdAmqn8iYfJC5MSDq1zYX5lNEIqhgLo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34680685 34280518 32350422 31010405 30400495
30420504 31190613 31660672 31660807 31190818
31120859 31200979 31870978 33000910 34060810

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 14:41:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161440
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-161835-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1303
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1040 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...southeastern to central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161438Z - 161835Z

Summary...High short term rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in
15 minutes may produce flash flooding across portions of
southeastern to central AZ over the next 3-4 hours.

Discussion...14Z infrared satellite and radar imagery identified
an MCV in southeastern AZ, over northern Cochise County, advancing
toward the NNW. An area of thunderstorms containing cooling cloud
tops was observed near and just ahead of this feature over
southeastern AZ, containing a history of observed rainfall of 0.5
to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes. While estimated MLCAPE was less than
500 J/kg over southeastern AZ (per 14Z SPC mesoanalysis data),
higher values of 500-1000 J/kg were in place over central AZ (~650
J/kg on the 12Z PSR sounding).

Given the degree of anomalous moisture in place across AZ with
standardized anomalies of precipitable water displaying 2 to 3+
this morning, even minor contributions from daytime heating will
help to increase instability across a broad region of AZ into the
early afternoon. Forcing ahead of the MCV coupled with mean
southerly flow may allow for brief repeating/training of cells
over the next few hours. Additional convective development will be
possible into central AZ by ~17Z, per the 11-13Z HRRR cycles,
where the PSR sounding showed only weak CIN. Total rainfall
through 19Z of 1-2 inches is expected, although potential for
isolated totals over 2 inches will be possible in situations where
training is able to persist a bit longer than 15-30 minutes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9pFaY64fZnXilEV38hsxsEgXneuKTnXXdNfIhsDc-SyNxuwsDzxMZooUclBoEGD6kuVq6DvTCCtIzNF3W8llxo5mD2c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35551166 35281021 34760915 33610889 32520927
32171008 32311101 32931186 33961236 34991226

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 17:20:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161719
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1304
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
117 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...northern AZ, southern/eastern UT into western CO
and northwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161715Z - 162315Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and training of thunderstorms will likely
allow for at least a couple of areas of flash flooding across
portions of northern AZ into southern/eastern UT, western CO and
northwestern NM through 23Z. High rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in 15 to 30 minutes are expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery at 1645Z showed mostly
clear skies across the Four Corners region into much of southern
UT with maturing cumulus along the regions of higher terrain from
northern AZ into central/southern UT and the early stages of
convective initiation. The region contained high precipitable
water values represented by widespread standardized anomalies of
+1.5 to +3.0 via blended TPW imagery and 12Z model analyses. This
was due to the Four Corners region being favorably positioned
between a strong mid-level ridge over the Southeast and low over
northern CA, resulting in deep-layered low to mid-level flow from
the south to southwest. The larger scale pattern also features
some degree of right-entrance region ascent within the upper level
jet across UT.

Deeper layer steering flow varied from 10-15 kt from northwestern
NM to about 30 kt into portions of southwestern UT. With continued
daytime heating into the afternoon, expectations are for
thunderstorms to increase in coverage as MLCAPE expands into the
500-1500 J/kg range (RAP forecasts), aligning initially along
terrain features. With time, deeper layer steering flow will
translate individual cells downstream but upstream development is
expected with areas of repeating and training. The environment
will support high short term rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches
in 15-30 minutes and an increasing threat for flash flooding
through the afternoon. Storm total rainfall through 00Z of 1 to 2
inches is generally expected, but localized totals over 2 inches
will also be possible. Areas of flash flooding will be most likely
where overlap of heavy rain occurs with small streams, slot
canyons and normally dry washes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4M3UoOj4b3yQL55ZnvCTDfpWxTU3upBj5FQrvubeGtpYOFpztbn4zdQiansYv2zEKD5TelM3ZMsj_HPKb6z5VMId8W0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40330973 39950862 38600764 37300762 36180847
35771006 36141162 36481345 36841377 37601363
39041190 40111114

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 18:24:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161824
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1305
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...southern to north-central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161821Z - 170015Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
expected across a large portion of AZ through the early evening
with high short term rates of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches in 15 minutes.
Considerable to life-threatening impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery and regional radar imagery
has shown a steady increase in the coverage of thunderstorms from
central to south-central AZ over the past 60-90 minutes within an
anomalously moist environment containing precipitable water (PW)
values near 1 inch in northern AZ to over 2 inches just south of
the border and north of the Gulf of California. These PW values
were 2 to 4 standard deviations above the mean for mid-September.
Meanwhile, the 18Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE of 500 to 1500
J/kg across much of AZ with a local max near 2000 J/kg in
southwestern AZ.

The region was favorably positioned between mid-level ridging over
the Southeast and a closed low over northern CA with steering flow
oriented from the south to southwest at roughly 10-20 kt. To the
south, a well-defined circulation was seen in visible imagery over
western Sonora near 29N 112W. In addition, RAP analyses showed a
50-75 kt upper level jet max over western to northern AZ, placing
portions of AZ within the divergent right-entrance region,
increasing broader scale ascent.

Over the next 2-4 hours, thunderstorms will continue to increase
in coverage over central to northern AZ within the regions of
higher terrain, while development expands over southern AZ, out
ahead of the advancing mid-level vorticity max over western
Sonora. The kinematic and thermodynamic environment will favor
areas of repeating and training storms with 15-minute rainfall of
0.5 to 1.0 inches (locally higher). These high short term rates
will force flash flood concerns into low lying and urban areas,
small stream and normally dry washes with 1 to 2 inches in an
hour. Given the favorable setup, areas of flash flooding are
expected to rise to the considerable level with potentially
life-threatening impacts.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Y6KywDGGRq-VeYLiKQLoWothF0Djrn1qt_sNzjKVIJYvj_GTL_L7BrG377C8SQ_rirDqMIOR5eg-jdiFR9P-8R3CNs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36801320 36471185 36081072 35960994 35510925
33600940 31951022 31381130 31621243 32091383
33231440 34871446 36451394

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 19:05:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 161904
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1306
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southeastern AZ...West-Central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 161902Z - 170100Z

SUMMARY...Enhanced monsoonal moisture in place across the southern
Rockies will fuel the development of scattered to numerous heavy
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. A few
instances of flash flooding are likely through 01Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a gradual
increase in convection across the outlook area during the midday
hours. Residual cloud cover from yesterday's storms has been a
mitigating factor thus far in new storm development, but recent
GOES-W visible satellite imagery is showing more breaks in the mid
level cloud deck, and this is allowing more convection to develop.
This trend should continue over the next several hours and allow
the lower troposphere to destabilize further, with mixed layer
CAPE rising to the 750-1250 J/kg range with CIN lowering with
time. Precipitable water values of 1 to 1.5 inches per recent SPC
mesoanalysis also remain anomalously high. Widespread ascent is
also being provided by a 500 mb vortmax along the NM/AZ border,
and a separate vorticity center over Sonora that is approaching
southern Arizona.

The CAM guidance is varied on the exact placement of the
convection over the next several hours, but the general theme is
for patchy swaths of 1-3 inch QPF maxima where the greatest
concentration of storms develop. Parts of the region, particularly
across portions of north-central New Mexico, had multiple rounds
of heavy rain over the past 24 hours, and this will make those
areas more susceptible to flooding. This will also be a concern
across any urbans areas that have repeated rounds of storms, along
with burn scars, arroyos, and narrow canyons. Some instances of
flash flooding are likely west of Interstate 25, and possible
elsewhere in the outlook area.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6KXj5wEehMhYGzzrmsgE-JPp4h9EWSeksIK4bj4XfK5pxKtjiDGC0RRICgXsY9ioBFkJXD5IQ0WYZ9QAiljABcK09I8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37000551 36770446 35780446 34760464 33750484
32740541 31960575 31600605 31580639 31730684
31750742 31740785 31610808 31270816 31220900
31301044 31771029 32650984 33430947 34380917
35400917 35860909 36040864 36280821 36650793
36900775 36980717

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 22:42:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162241
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-170200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1307
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern IL...Southern IN...Western OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162236Z - 170200Z

Summary...A broken line of thunderstorms stretched from WSW to ENE
in the vicinity of a stationary front is expected to remain in
place over the next few hours. Some back-building cells may
produce high enough rainfall rates to result in some instances of
flooding through 2Z this evening.

Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are showing a broken line of
strong convection stretched from southern Illinois to western
Ohio. These storms are firing along a nearly stationary surface
front, and the deep layered westerly flow on the northern
periphery of the upper ridge is resulting in some back-building
cells over the past couple of hours. Infrared satellite imagy is
also showing expanding anvil canopies and colder cloud tops with
improving overall organization. These storms are also forming in a
corridor of elevated PWs near 2 inches an mixed layer CAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg based on recent SPC mesoanalysis.

The general expectation going forward this evening is for some
additional rainfall totals of 1 to locally 3 inches in the general
vicinity of the Interstate 70 corridor through 2Z as the overall
line moves very slowly to the southeast, with some instances of
flooding possible. This is supported by recent runs of the HRRR
and RRFS, and this activity should gradually wane in intensity
later this evening as instability decreases.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_1-lU89vfVkmUJOtjZ6OwwI8HFVKIYFtgBfh6jfWi9PFyWdSCcU0xTQurWr52gz0unskXFLRSOG4Y1SfInl1uNzWcX0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LSX...PAH...
PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41058200 40138199 39118387 38698577 38338737
38288894 38428943 38838974 39128947 39368848
39618731 40318487 40888375

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Sep 16 23:38:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 162338
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-170400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1308
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Southwest CO...Northwest NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162334Z - 170400Z

SUMMARY...Additional repeating and training of thunderstorms is
expected for the next several hours across much of central and
southern Utah, and extending into adjacent portions of northern
Arizona and western Colorado. A few more instances of flash
flooding will be possible through 4Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars show scattered heavy
convection generally along and just east of the Wasatch Range on
the western edge of a deep moisture plume advecting north from
Arizona with an enhanced monsoonal flow pattern in place. GOES-W
visible satellite imagery now shows a broad anvil canopy extending
northward from Arizona across southeastern portions of the state,
and this is tending to limit new convection there. There is still
enough destabilization near the Wasatch Range to support the
development of new convection, and back-building cells have been
observed over the past few hours. Mixed layer CAPE is generally
near 1000 J/kg and PWs range between 0.75 and 1.25 inches based on
the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

It appears that the overall convective and QPF footprint will
become generally more scattered going through the evening hours,
and this is supported by recent runs of the CAM guidance and radar
trends. However, the areas that are affected by back-building
cells given the uni-directional flow from the SSW will continue to
have a flash flood threat through 4Z this evening. This concern
will be greatest across slot canyons and burn scar areas.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4wMpBcx8MwX4pi2ydtKGX-jy9U26rt90P0iMOr-MG0Fx_AQJziL2LiypkUP7ULdWVzY28tmQqbbucs35fbnYmboVdwU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40490872 40190745 39440717 39090757 38730819
38230917 37441013 36641040 36371132 36841274
37371292 38241255 39041223 39751183 40201121
40480986

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 00:31:22 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170030
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-170600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1309
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern and Western Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 170028Z - 170600Z

SUMMARY...Widespread intense and slow moving thunderstorms are
expected across much of western and southern Arizona through 11 pm
local time. Some additional instances of flash flooding are
likely, and the potential exists for isolated areas of major
flooding, with the best chances for this across southwestern
Arizona.

DISCUSSION...The strongest convection across Arizona over the past
couple of hours has been over the southwestern portion of the
state, mainly between Yuma and Gila Bend. A north-south oriented
band of nearly stationary thunderstorms has been producing
rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour based on recent Doppler
radar estimates. This is also within an area of cooling cloud tops
and expanding anvil canopies on GOES-W infrared satellite imagery.
Another area of heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is
moving north across southeastern Arizona, and generally more
moderate rainfall farther to the north for areas that have already
been heavily affected by torrential rains earlier today.

The region remains positioned between a mid-level ridge over the
Tennessee Valley and a closed low over northern California with
steering flow oriented from the SSW, advecting copious Pacific
moisture northward. In addition, the region is near the right
entrance region of the upper level jet and therefore increasing
broader scale ascent.

The CAM guidance suite indicates relatively strong agreement for
the heaviest rainfall to occur over southwestern Arizona within
the axis of best instability, with the potential for 2-4 inches of
rainfall in some cases through 11 pm. This will likely lead to
multiple instances of flash flooding, and some of which could be
significant. Elsewhere across the outlook area, additional totals
closer to 0.5 to 1.5 inches can be expected, but this would be on
top of already highly saturated grounds and thus raising the
prospects for additional flooding.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-XLTnF4PYRojQzx4EMzib6hBs_zZcaRMl6g1skF-xKdkjVd-WB0iw8bbtUADkR_PZk5_-gbV5E_kzax9gge5YtN1vPA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37001346 36881294 36611240 36291196 35731191
35051169 34481129 34051097 33701048 33180952
32790943 32380961 32051019 31831082 31751156
31891269 32341412 32641464 33341492 34721481
35741457 36381436 36811393

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 04:45:06 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170444
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-171030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1310
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1243 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern AZ...Western
NM...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170443Z - 171030Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms lifting north
across portions of central and eastern AZ, western NM and
southwest CO can be expected to continue overnight. Some
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows some
localized expansion of cold-topped convection across portions of
western and central NM in association with a stronger southerly
surge of moisture and instability. Additional areas of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms are also noted across parts of
central and eastern AZ which is largely connected to the northward
advance of a well-defined mid-level vort center over southern AZ.

Increasing 850/700 mb moisture flux coupled with MUCAPE values of
1000+ J/kg and relatively divergent flow aloft around the east
side of this vort center should tend to maintain the western NM
activity for a few more hours, but there may be some additional
expansion of convection across areas of eastern AZ as stronger
forcing more directly tied into the vort center crosses this
region. Some of these convective elements may advance up into
southwest CO as well later in the night as deeper layer
subtropical moisture transport continues to advance north and
interacts with the higher terrain of the San Juan mountains.

The stronger convective elements will be capable of producing as
much as 1 inch of rain in 30 minutes given the level of deep
moisture through the vertical column which is quite impressive in
the 700/300 mb layer based on the latest OSPO ALPW data. This
enhanced rainfall efficiency setup will continue overnight, and
the latest experimental WoFS guidance along with the 00Z HREF
suite of guidance suggests potentially an additional 1.5 to 2+
inches of rain going through the predawn hours.

Additional areas of flash flooding will be possible as a result,
and especially for the more sensitive dry wash, burn scar and
narrow canyon locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8INGbWD3K34LviwQdinDIKu7-g3oNXh2r9YG6gfTzvW3mBIUs-fapDSbgsLSXCaPgddsBsKdyycFD9tdNhGf3Z14010$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37870723 37410637 36210618 34910670 33740683
33020720 32770802 32870946 32001116 32341221
33311250 34451205 35351128 36600991 37590863

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 06:27:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170627
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-171225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1311
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern IA...Northern IL...Northern
IN...Central and Northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170625Z - 171225Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms with some
cell-training concerns may foster isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding later tonight and through early Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E Proxy Visible satellite imagery
shows convection initiating and expanding in coverage across
portions of eastern IA through northern IL and also downstream
across northern IN and parts of western OH. Increasing warm air
advection overrunning a quasi-stationary front coupled with the
presence of an elevated instability axis is the primary reason for
the convective development.

MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg along with a 20 to 30+ kt
southwest low-level jet will combine with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0
inches to facilitate heavy rainfall rates. A further uptick in the
low-level jet is expected over the next few hours, and this will
support an additional expansion of the convective activity. Some
of these rainfall rates may reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour
with the stronger cells, and the latest hires multi-model
consensus led by the 00Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some
cell-training potential along and north of the front. This may
yield some localized 3 to 4+ inch rainfall totals going through
dawn.

Overall, the heaviest rainfall amounts are likely to develop and
focus across areas of eastern IA and northern IL which is where
the nose of the low-level jet is a bit stronger along with the
pooling of stronger elevated instability. This will yield support
in time for somewhat better convective organization and heavier
rainfall rates. However, the latest radar and satellite imagery
shows convection downstream across parts of northern IN and
western OH which seems to be connected in part to the advance of
at least some weak mid-level vort energy in conjunction with the
broader warm air advection pattern.

FFG values across the region are relatively low, and the rainfall
totals over the next several hours will support a threat for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5wgPql3HK-eia3d-ZinWrkAXmoNX0cFuRbsORi8vGhvfKMfJdo4tMXV2uCPsPM_HGDU7RTvgA6sgf5lujfKidlV25fs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DMX...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42399123 42278982 42008793 41688575 41418392
41058162 40528061 39888097 39828157 40148432
40378607 40618762 40848925 41079138 41379306
41609391 42109375 42339281

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 09:32:16 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 170931
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-171530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1312
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AZ...Central and Western NM...Southwest
CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 170930Z - 171530Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
to lift northward this morning across the Southwest. Rainfall
rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour and localized cell-training will
maintain a regional threat for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows a
well-defined and increasingly elongated shortwave trough lifting
north across eastern AZ. This energy along with deep layer
southerly moisture transport and modest instability continues to
focus broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms.

MUCAPE values are as high as 500 to 1000 J/kg, but the moisture is
particularly impressive with values running 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal and generally in the 95th+ percentile of
climatology. High WBZ heights along with the transport of tropical
moisture northward from mainland Mexico is fostering very
efficient rainfall across the broader Southwest U.S., with locally
enhanced rainfall rates where areas of deeper convection are
situated. Radar and satellite data shows the strongest areas of
convection generally over central NM, but some dynamically
enhanced convection is seen over eastern AZ in closer proximity
the shortwave energy.

The latest guidance lifts the shortwave energy northward toward
the Intermountain West this morning which will bring much of the
broken convective activity northward along with it. Upslope flow
and related orographic ascent over the higher terrain, and
especially into southwest CO, will bring areas of heavy rainfall
that may result in flash flooding. Rainfall rates with any of the
stronger convective elements may reach 1.5 inches/hour, with some
localized additional rainfall totals through mid-morning of 2 to 3
inches given concerns for some cell-training.

A regional threat for flash flooding will continue as a result,
and this will again include the highly sensitive dry wash areas,
along with burn scar locations and slot/box canyons.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-tDUKQN-yKrHI-qd83kOs8SlSur1nK-l0UdInwXV_8XsqOQ4A8kUKpM2mFy5NkknmCOKwNoielpy5YnruALURblGyYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38710671 38600544 37340481 35200492 32600555
31830659 31810780 32670844 32900933 32631062
33511138 34551139 35811081 36620950 38020818

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 12:25:24 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171225
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-171730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1313
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
823 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...northern IL/IN into northwestern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171222Z - 171730Z

SUMMARY...Some areas flash flooding may linger across northern
IL/IN into northwestern OH through 17Z with hourly rainfall of 1
to 2+ inches. Additional storm total rainfall is expected to peak
near 3 inches on an isolated basis.

DISCUSSION...1210Z radar imagery showed a WNW to ESE axis of
thunderstorms containing heavy rain extending across northern
IL/IN with MRMS-derived and gauge confirmed hourly rainfall
between 1 and 2 inches (locally higher). However, embedded
portions of this axis have produced 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to
near 1.0 inches, owing to the efficient nature of the airmass with
precipitable water values of 2.0 to 2.3 inches. Additional, more
scattered thunderstorm coverage, was noted farther east from
eastern IN into western OH with occasional embedded repeating and
training. The areas of heavy rain were located north of a
quasi-stationary front that extended eastward across IL/IN/OH with
20-30 kt of 925 mb flow over northern MO/IL, helping to drive
isentropic ascent and an axis of elevated convergence to the north
of the boundary. Steering flow was oriented parallel to the low
level axis of convergence, allowing for training within a zone of
roughly 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (via SPC mesoanalysis data from 12Z).

Short term forecasts from the RAP show that as a 925-850 mb low
over the MN/IA border shifts east, and an eastern TN high
translates west through 18Z, the low level flow across the Midwest
will veer to more of a westerly direction while also weakening
with the typical diurnal cycle. This should reduce the amount of
overrunning of the stationary front and coincide with a reduction
in thunderstorm/heavy rainfall coverage across IL/IN/OH with the
axis of convection shifting east over time. Until then however,
the potential will remain for additional areas of training with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches and additional storm totals near
3 inches on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8s6itnFpU8ZLvywED8Aee_QgXhfofo7ibN9CZ9tat9-fFLNNTtMBFaa-LLwt6C5Y2wKrUHYOilpbeg5hR-CjuNy7bzA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42318993 42198836 41838611 41318341 40738235
40188222 39918304 40368591 40598766 41208973
41779053

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 16:11:04 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171610
FFGMPD
FLZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1314
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...southeastern FL into the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171608Z - 172200Z

SUMMARY...There will continue to be the potential for urban/flash
flooding across portions of southeastern FL into the Keys over the
next 3-6 hours. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally
higher) is expected.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery as of 1545Z over southeastern FL
showed slow moving showers and thunderstorms impacting Palm Beach
and Broward counties with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher). Portions of Palm Beach County near West
Palm Beach have received 3 to 5 inches of rain since midnight with
ongoing urban flooding. The area of storms was located within low
level easterly flow of 15-20 kt containing a zone of subtle
confluence over Palm Beach and Broward counties. The favorable
environment, supportive of efficient rainfall production was
represented on the 12Z MFL sounding with 2.2 inches of
precipitable water and a wet bulb zero height of 15.0 kft.
Favorable ascent was also being provided within the left-exit
region of a 45-55 kt upper level jet max located west of an upper
low ~100 miles north of Grand Bahama and Abacos Island.

The environment will remain favorable for efficient rainfall
production throughout the afternoon but short term forecasts from
the RAP suggest that the axis of greatest low level convergence
over Palm Beach and Broward counties weakens by 18Z with potential
for another, although weaker, axis to develop farther south
through 22Z. Therefore, expectations are for the threat for
urban/flash flooding to end across Palm Beach County by ~18Z and
shift southward later this afternoon with similar potential for
high rates of 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an hour. Although the HRRR
and other CAMs that are handling the ongoing storms reasonably
well do not indicate as focused of a heavy rainfall threat into
southeastern FL and the Keys this afternoon as compared to the
farther north locations, at least localized urban/flash flood
potential will exist through at least 22Z for portions of
southeastern FL into the Keys.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!79GEzcdFIiMmf-J2ECfYp29J5pIjrtD8P56MgsC1OXxVAINmAyzAJVlYhnDZWJWRQjRGcB4a5T9LVAooTngkqbpsNzM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27078008 26797987 25897991 25458008 24668072
24338180 24708188 24858144 25088087 25668065
26328044 26698048 26988033

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 18:01:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171801
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-172355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1315
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...eastern AZ into NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171758Z - 172355Z

SUMMARY...Localized to scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected across a broad area of central/western NM into portions
of eastern AZ through 00Z. Maximum hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches and sub-hourly 15-minute rainfall totals peaking near 1
inch will be likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES East visible imagery at 1745Z showed a mixture
of sky cover across AZ into NM with building cumulus along areas
of higher terrain and towering cumulus in the Sacramento
Mountains. The region resided within broadly confluent low to
mid-level flow between a shearing mid-level impulse approaching
the Four Corners and an expansive ridge centered over AR. While
moisture values are lower today compared to yesterday across the
Southwest, standardized anomalies of precipitable water of +1 to
+3 remained from eastern AZ into central NM. Mean steering flow
veered from 10 kt/southerly near the Mexican border to 25
kt/southwesterly in southern CO. Daytime heating is well underway
at this hour but 17Z estimated instability was weak across NM with
only a couple small regions of 500 J/kg, while 500 to 1000+ was
estimated along the eastern Mogollon Rim in AZ via the 17Z SPC
mesoanalysis.

Continued surface heating should allow MLCAPE to expand in
coverage through the afternoon with locations reaching 500-1500
J/kg by 21Z via the latest RAP forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected to form, likely first across the Sacramento Mountains
given the character of building cumulus there, followed by other
areas of higher terrain across the region by mid-afternoon. The
anomalous moisture and southerly steering flow should allow for a
few areas of repeating and training cells capable of generating
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches. 700 mb flow was near 30 kt over
northwestern NM which should provide added orographic ascent into
the southern San Juan Mountains into southern CO, although
instability drops off sharply with northward extent into
southwestern CO which should temper rain rates to the north. The
enhanced 700 mb flow is likely to weaken as the previously
mentioned upper wave moves downstream but upstream instability
over eastern AZ into northwestern NM should allow for at least a
few robust cells with potential for hourly rainfall over 1 inch.

While the coverage of flash flooding is not expected to be
widespread this afternoon, at least isolated to scattered areas
appear likely with the greatest impacts across burn scars, low
water crossings and normally dry washes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9e7ek5pIDxcGjiS_Vuy3TPCGlkOg9r6xEQNQgft9PJo04iHFKR8XbsYgP_6o6ojmUEyWTjpcULCQPHHLZXngvmmqS4A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37750731 37710686 37210580 37020436 36560382
35950401 34470455 33560490 32610506 32280572
32090638 32270711 32550759 32740798 32940844
33110878 33470946 33821024 34261085 34621108
34981102 35471088 36131024 36710939 37450848

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 19:41:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 171940
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1316
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Central & Eastern ID...Western WY...Northern
UT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171940Z - 180100Z

SUMMARY...Anomalous moisture, strong forcing and potential repeating/back-building convective elements capable of .75"/hr and
possible localized 1-1.5" totals pose possible flash flooding in
rugged terrain and/or near burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E/W WV suite shows mature closed low elongating
more north-south across Oregon/N California helping to stretch the
upstream western branch of the warm conveyor belt/TROWAL over
central ID into northeast Oregon, while core of the WCB remains
focused across central UT into E ID/W WY. Moisture values within
the WCB are well above normal in the 3-4 standard anomaly range at
1-1.2" into far SE ID advected on 25-30kts from 850-500mb per
VWP/RAP supporting strong CIRA LVT values across the eastern
portions of the area of concern. A surface boundary along/south
of but parallel to the Snake River Plain is providing the low
level isentropic ascent/moisture convergence to activate
convection across the NV/ID/UT line with a few cells reaching to
-50C. Rates of .5"-.75"/hr may start the initial rounds and with
remaining stronger upstream low-level flow, the potential for
back-building along those S to N streamers in the Great Basin may
continue to redevelopment for favorable repeating through the late
afternoon into evening hours. As such, a narrow stripe or two may
see localized 1-1.5" totals.

RAP analysis also notes that MLCAPEs are rising to near 1000 J/kg
along the western gradient of the WCB and near the narrow
mid-level dry slot noted in satellite imagery, just adding that
slight increase of mid-level steepened lapse rates for stronger
updrafts and isallobaric moist, low level inflow. Instability
while less, still is sufficient across the Sawtooth into southern
Salmon Range through the evening and with upslope flow may allow
for isolated stronger cores. Quick bursts of .5" in 30 minutes
and slower motions in the effective TROWAL may allow for increased
residency for an isolated 1" total here as well.

All in all, the naturally lower FFG values due to harder, rockier
ground conditions, especially within terrain may be locally
exceeded and any intersection with recent burn scars will likely
be the locations for highest localized flash flooding potential.
As such, widely scattered flash flooding is considered possible
through the evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8a1fLg-6jXCCQNFMeLdRTA7CopMWWx69n6NYs2NlBfsmIF4xwIT6dE53tVk0idmtT2n3gKbIcvG0iQUphH_lu5mWpBo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...MSO...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44961389 44241282 44401135 44421085 44281023
43600982 42790926 41910930 41080999 40711092
41191160 41691260 41821368 42461415 42991459
43461595 44301623 44961579

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Sep 17 23:25:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 172325
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-180500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1317
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Much of NM...Far Eastern AZ... Southwest CO...
Ext Southeast UT...Ext Western Tip of West TX Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172330Z - 180500Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered flash flooding potential continues into
the overnight period as strong shortwave energy lifts into the
Southwest. Localized thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr and totals
of 2-2.5" resulting in incidents of flash flooding remain likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 7.3um LL WV imagery shows a very
strong/compact shortwave across NW Sonora in NW Mexico with
impressive downstream anti-cyclonic outflow jet streak denoted
with transversely banded cirrus indicative of solid dPVA and broad
right entrance of jet streak starting to enter far Southeast AZ
and southern NM. This is supporting expanding convective
development along the Chihuahua/Sonora border bleeding into the
Bootheel of NM, as well as, some peripherally enhanced isolated
cells near El Paso, TX. CIRA LPW and LVT continue to be
impressive through the 700-500mb layer with LVT signals of 125-150
kg/m/s across much of SW to north-central NM. While the core of
the most anomalous moisture has drifted along and north of the
Four Corners (99th percentile with 4 standard anomaly in central
CO), the trailing moisture axis remains generally along and east
of the mid-level deformation zone from the shortwave energy
exiting across NE CO into W NEB. Total PWats of 1-1.25" are
available and still result in 2-2.5 standard anomaly units through
much of the area of concern.

Full heating and sufficient larger scale capping limited
development today across much of NM with exception of the
Sacramento Range and only recently expanding northward toward the
southern Rockies/Sangre de Cristo. As such, a broad area of
weakly capped solidly unstable (1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) remains
and as stronger mid to upper level dynamic forcing approaches,
further scattered convective development is expected through the
end of evening into the early overnight period. So stronger
mid-level flux, convergence should and updraft strength should
allow for scattered thunderstorm activity to support 1.5"/hr
rates. Forward propagation along the axis may allow for some
repeating, though low level inflow of 15-20kts should allow for
some solid back-building potential to further enhanced repeating
capability. Isolated spots of 2-2.5" are possible which remain
likely to induce a few localized incidents of flash flooding as
well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4dOKPzAamlgPDa6-zoPJR8Vscn3ER4Z4NzDmFna_iklC6CwGYvTC_QUnuEiqDSGmrTha1xrKd68wFielcA_bFKMxCQQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38560759 38480657 38170609 37620582 37360522
37420445 37220398 36760392 35970410 34500458
33250505 32130546 31480614 31610675 31600784
31250802 31270927 31550963 32440957 34210966
35651005 36731000 37760950 38140903 38450830

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 01:56:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180156
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-180720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1318
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas affected...Central to Southeast Indiana...Southwest Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180155Z - 180720Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, potentially repeating but highly efficient
thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr may pose scattered possible
flash flooding though early overnight, especially if tracking
northward over saturated grounds affected over the last day or so.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop and regional RADAR mosaic has
seen an expanding trend of convective initiation around the
incipient strong cell tracking into Tipton county, IND. A subtle
1020mb surface wave along the IND/IL border west of Lafayette, IND
has helped to back low level flow out of the southwest along and
ahead of the wave across central IND. Surface Tds in the upper
70s accompanied aloft by enhanced moisture (per CIRA LPW) results
in a total PWat over 2", perhaps locally reaching 2.25". Higher
theta-E pooled along the surface front remains conditionally
unstable enough for an axis of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to exist
into southwest Ohio. As such, tops are cooling to -70C and
expanding along the flanking line to the west, though a few more
isolated, elevated cells are occurring further north as well.
Stronger surface to boundary layer moisture flux will support
rates of 2-2.5"/hr given the ample moisture and while the forward
speed is decent at 15-20kts, residency due to broadness of the
updrafts should allow for sub-hourly totals nearing 2" locally.

Deep layer steering flow is favorably oriented to the surface
front and instability axis while inflow should also be relatively
unobstructed. The uncertainty lies with flanking line or upstream/back-building development. Hi-Res CAMs and trends
suggest this may be a bit more limited, though recent
strengthening an overall coverage along the upwind edge suggests a
potential remains for some short-term repeating. As of current
trends and placement of the front/instability axis, the best
potential for repeating or strongest cells will remain south and
west of the recently compromised soil conditions through the
northern Tilled Plains of Eastern IND and Western Ohio where FFG
values are below an 1" in parts through 1,3, and 6hr time steps.
While, current track will move through higher more normal
2-2.5"/hr and 3"/3hr values across central IND, but eventually
reduce again into Southwest Ohio (1-1.5"/hr & 1.5-2"/3hr). So
while there remains these contingencies, the efficiency of the
rates would still pose a risk in urban locations and overall there
remains a risk of possible flash flooding through the overnight
period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4kzHjYAVL2YtXUKZOLrfKYA3-9dB1TlfuHSaeuknK-P5n38C8NlY_R1Jn4sXx5S-47pmaTLiysiC2byvjJfLMKYWSGE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41148598 40988516 40508379 39828272 39158290
38958360 39178497 39558617 39968691 40308711
41008674

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 04:42:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180441
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-180845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1319
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Southeast ID

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180440Z - 180845Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be a threat over the next few hours which may result in
isolated areas of flash flooding including concerns for some burn
scar impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows an axis of fairly well-organized shower and
thunderstorm activity impacting areas of southeast ID. This
convection is being facilitated by a fairly strong poleward
transport of moisture around the east side of a deeper layer
trough over the Great Basin.

Elevated 850/700 mb moisture flux anomalies coupled with as much
as 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and proximity of a front is expected to
maintain a convective threat for a few more hours and this will be
aided by divergent flow aloft ahead of the Great Basin upper
trough. The latest radar shows some fairly discrete cell-activity
near the Pocatello vicinity and this is getting some support from
rather strong shear profiles through the column

Some rainfall rates up to 1 inch/hour will be possible with some
spotty 2 inch totals possible where any cell-training takes place
over the next few hours. This may be enough to support some
additional localized concerns for flash flooding and especially
for any burn scar locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9OtoHI7MQg3gxy3RpLPxjfjMHBFr-4WPsrxLTwacUbmWiNX4a-4aq91DiQOoz37D9kMDloZQMrN9Ol10L0amsLeCCVE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44591106 44261078 43471094 42851149 42311217
42031308 42121378 42681387 43681301 44461191

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 04:52:42 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 180452
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-181000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1320
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Much of New Mexico...Far Southern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180450Z - 181000Z

SUMMARY...Lingering clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to maintain a threat for some additional areas of
flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows clusters of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of
northern NM along with areas down across the southwest part of the
state. The convection down across southwest NM is much more tied
into slow northward advance of a shortwave impulse which is
generating some larger scale forcing. Some very modest vort energy
is most likely the culprit for the activity farther north.

Given the loss of daytime heating, instability at this point is
relatively modest, but there is the pooling of as much as 1000 to
2000 J/kg of MUCAPE down across central to southwest NM which is
playing a role in supporting some of the locally high rainfall
rainfall rates. The PWs remain anomalously high across the entire
region with strong moisture concentrations noted in the 700/500 mb
layer per OSPO ALPW, and there remains a substantial long-track
fetch of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific up across
mainland Mexico and into the southern Rockies.

Overall, the the 00Z HREF/REFS suite of guidance still supports at
least broken clusters of convection overnight that will persist
and produce the potential for additional locally heavy rainfall
totals. Much of this should tend to remain stretched out in a
general south to north with the deeper layer moisture transport
across NM, but some potential will exist for areas as far north as
southern CO to still see some of this. The environmental setup
will still support some rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour,
and some spotty 2+ inch totals going through the remainder of the
night.

This will maintain a threat for some additional areas of flash
flooding as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9AZdUDsF-kXdYEEVzT_LPQSSjsTT5S49QTs-Xz4Ukb5cEwoIf2g9I2o3KmqpMR1wWUQZp3MIyFz_PJP_WXqRsKOQGn8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37440532 36520481 35370485 34070510 32530556
31990610 31710669 31630714 31660763 31840817
32350856 32920857 33830839 34740817 36250756
37330647

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 14:47:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181447
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-182040-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1321
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1045 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...northern UT into eastern ID/western WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181445Z - 182040Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northern UT into eastern ID/western WY through 21Z. Repeating/training of heavy rain will have the potential to
produce hourly rainfall between 1 and 2 inches and 15-minute
rainfall over 0.5 inches.

DISCUSSION...Through 1420Z, area radar imagery across northern UT
into southeastern ID showed two axes of thunderstorms with recent
expansion just northeast of the Great Salt Lake. This region of
the U.S. was located within favorable southwesterly diffluent flow
aloft, just ahead of the southern lobe of an eastward advancing
closed low in northern NV. The 12Z sounding from SLC showed MLCAPE
just shy of 1100 J/kg with weak inhibition and 1.0 inches of
precipitable water (PW), which is near the climatological max
regarding PW for mid-September.

As the upper low continues to advance east over the next 6 hours,
low level moisture transport and daytime heating will continue to
increase instability across the region with an expanding coverage
of 500-1500 J/kg expected by 20Z from UT into eastern ID and far
western WY. The combination of increasing CAPE and sufficient
shear could allow for a few organized cells embedded within the
region of expanding thunderstorms which are forecast to move into
portions of eastern ID and western WY later this morning into the
afternoon. Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies to
the immediate south of the ongoing storms in northern UT which
should allow for increasing instability/convective development in
the 18-21Z time frame with the diurnal cycle. Mean southwesterly
winds will promote repeating cells and training at times, with
hourly rainfall over 1 inch at times (locally near 1.5 inches
possible) along with 15-minute rainfall over 0.5 inches at times,
resulting in concerns for flash flooding. Any areas of flash
flooding will carry the greatest threat across sensitive burn
scars and any impervious/urban areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!52CPgsrSSPNOvq2bblBeN3YVYbbm4phil4IP7iN_Od20i17dg_3LkWImWEFDm6_OjRl25dxOzFzZgUgwwk4c0KjiYxI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44311113 43621002 42060925 39781040 39151209
39281329 39801380 40851398 41751366 42901278
44101222

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 17:20:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181720
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-182315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1322
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...eastern/southeastern NM into far western TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181717Z - 182315Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be possible through 23Z
across portions of eastern/southeastern NM into far western TX.
Repeating rounds and training with peak hourly rainfall of 1-2
inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...1645Z visible imagery and area radar imagery showed
cloud cover associated with showers and embedded thunderstorms
over southwestern to central NM, located ahead of a northeastward
advancing shortwave trough located over the southern AZ/NM border.
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall within this zone of rainfall was
generally less than 0.5 inches over the past 1-2 hours. Farther to
the east, the Sacramento Mountains had been largely free of
appreciable cloud cover and surface heating was allowing for the
early stages of convective initiation within an anomalously moist
airmass (standardized anomalies of precipitable water between +1
and +2). Blended TPW imagery showed precipitable water values were
similar to yesterday from southwestern to eastern NM, but ~20 kt
of southwesterly deeper layer steering flow was slightly stronger
than yesterday at this time.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 17Z showed MLCAPE was 500-1000 J/kg
over southeastern portions of NM into western TX with notable low
level CIN remaining, although the elevated heat source of the
terrain should allow for increasing thunderstorm coverage across
the Sacramento Mountains (at least Otero County) over the next
hour or so. Additional heating is expected to remove CIN for
remaining portions of southeastern NM. In addition, forcing ahead
of the approaching shortwave along the AZ/NM border will assist
with lift later this afternoon. The southwesterly steering flow is
expected to direct individual cells downstream but upstream
development is expected, not too dissimilar from yesterday. The
difference for today is that low level flow appears to be more
veered which may eventually focus areas of heavier rain with
training/repeating potential to the east of the Sacramento
Mountains into portions of the High Plains of southeastern NM and
far western TX where short term model guidance forecasts an axis
of low level convergence which may act as a focus for cell
formation. Portions of southern/southeastern NM have received
heavy rain over the past few days including 1 to 3 inches within
the past 24 hours over the eastern half of the Sacramento
Mountains.

Within areas of training, hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is
expected with 15-minute rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches.
Isolated/localized storm totals over 2 inches will be possible
along with areas of flash flooding, especially near areas of
sensitive terrain and area burn scars.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4UENgwVZJN0NJUM0GhB3xSPxg9RjQOMNrO7sEyEixgvQI_W6uPw2MsA_lbuTDXOvPBkioABt7sKpxGe8g-TZM0Uqq_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35630402 35540334 34610305 33400328 32030406
31320494 31290563 31740607 32740591 34000593
34890546 35440493

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 19:18:40 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 181918
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-190100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1323
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...central ID into southwestern MT and northwestern
WY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181916Z - 190100Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of flash flooding will be possible across
portions of the northern Rockies of ID, MT, WY through the early
evening. Localized hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5 inches is
expected within stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...19Z water vapor imagery from GOES West showed the
southern portion of a robust closed low over the OR/ID/NV border,
advancing gradually toward the ENE. Precipitable water values to
the northeast of the shortwave contained standardized anomalies of
+2 to +3. Favorably diffluent and divergent flow was also located
ahead of the upper low over central ID, aiding ascent with ongoing thunderstorms over the region. Downstream locations across the
ID/MT border into southwestern MT and northwestern WY contained
fairly weak MLCAPE via the 19Z SPC mesoanalysis showing roughly
500 J/kg or less, with a small pocket of 500 to 1000 J/kg along
the central ID/MT border. However, the continued northward
advection of moisture in the low levels beneath modest 700-500 mb
lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km is expected to allow for an
expanding coverage of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE from the Sawtooth to
Bitterroots into the remaining Rockies by late this afternoon.
Note that areas of 500+ J/kg MLCAPE are forecast to remain
somewhat scattered across the region through early evening.

Strong dynamic forcing will be the key driver in an expected
increase in thunderstorm coverage to the north through 01Z with
locally stronger cells containing hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5
inches. Storm motions are expected to vary but should be slowest
(<10 kt) with northern extent, while cells farther south into
eastern ID/northwestern WY may exhibit repeating and brief
training containing cell motions of 10-20 kt. A deformation axis
is forecast to setup across central ID into portions of western MT
ahead of the upper low/shortwave containing stratiform rain but
with embedded convective elements mixed within. The limited
forecast coverage of greater instability is one negating factor
for a greater flash flood threat, although there are numerous burn
scars located across this portion of the Northwest. Flash flooding
will be possible with the greatest impacts across overlap of burn
scar locations and other areas of sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6SZho9F1Bv55LyigFz-N5A7Yp5xupirDa2pv-CZesOrvaV62_PSEhHB2I7WB9r359PkLjx9nsJJpqams9JR9ijZPfVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...MSO...OTX...PIH...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47641207 46870949 45670888 44410941 43361041
43151344 43921529 44841585 46321577 47481421

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 20:02:18 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182002
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-190130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1324
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Four Corners Region...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182000Z - 190130Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered monsoonal thunderstorms along the
trailing edge of the anomalous moisture, still may produce in
hourly 1-1.25"/hr and spots of 1.5-2" totals resulting in possible
isolated to widely scattered localized flash flooding incidents
this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad entrance to stronger
50-70kt polar jet covers much of the Four Corners region with core
of last stronger shortwave in the Pacific subtropical feed over SW
NM at this time. CIRA LPW shows core of low level moisture has
shunted further east than this area of concern, though 700-500mb
core remains along the deformation zone from the approaching
subtropical shortwave toward the northeast across eastern Colorado
to the prior shortwave feature in the broadening battle ground
between the Southern Plains upper ridge and the Northwest's long
wave trough. LPW values of .5" with some lingering low level
moisture, support more average to slightly above average .75-1"
total PWats. Still, full insolation and this modest remaining
moisture supports modest 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE from SE AZ
across the NM/AZ line and into E UT though cloud cover and reduced moisture/theta-E air in central CO, is resulting in a bit more
stabilized air.

Weak dPVA on the north side of the amplified wave along with
modest divergence in the jet entrance will help mountain
circulation development initially likely allowing for some
maintenance of widely scattered thunderstorms. Modest updrafts
will support rates up to 1"/hr with an isolated/transient
potential to 1.25-1.5"/hr. Most cells will be slower moving in
the weakening mid to upper level flow at the trailing edge of the
broader system, but only increasing residency of any given cell a
lit bit more, so an isolated 1.5-2" total may be possible. The
overall coverage will be further reduced than prior days or
compared to locations toward the NW in N UT or southeast in SE NM;
but localized incidents of flash flooding will remain possible
through the evening given rocky/rugged terrain and burn scars.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9f0cD34fuhD8MyEm_tDzA2CAhZpWCww3l1GyMyFrfExm5isjnZNeKrGHbxDrcgOPy-iO8czePCM3PkvTo7KfnS_Xlws$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40410832 40140740 39410666 39110651 38440632
37580628 37260569 36550546 35950499 35480519
33470636 32930710 32990805 33370870 33800898
33850937 34310994 35350986 37000932 39190989
40170944

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Sep 18 21:05:56 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 182105
FFGMPD
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-190230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1325
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Northern UT...Southeast ID...Southwest
WY...Northwest CO...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 182100Z - 190230Z

SUMMARY...Multiple SW to NE bands of thunderstorms slowly
progressing eastward capable of short-term repeating and localized
1.5-2" totals continue to present an isolated to widely scattered
risk of localized flash flooding through the remainder of the
evening into early overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite continues to show strong closed low
just west of the OR/ID/NV corner still advancing eastward while
strong southwest to northeast deep layer flow continues to present
broad area of enhanced moisture flux across the remaining warm
sector across much of N UT into SE ID and W WY. CIRA LVT analysis
shows a narrower core of 850-700mb plume across W UT to SE ID with
50-75 kg/m/s while overlayed with the broader 700-500 moisture
flux at similar ranges. Total PWats in the plume range from
.75-1" or about 1.5-2 std dev from normal helping to increase
rainfall efficiency/moisture loading to the convective cores that
are present. GOES-E Visible imagery shows a weaker line back
near the advancing cold front just west of the NV/UT border with
much stronger line advancing toward/through the N UT I-15 corridor
back into the E Bonneville Flats; advancing eastward slowly within
the broad height-falls aloft at 5-10kts though individual cells
are lifting north-northeast at 25-30, presenting short-term
opportunities for localized repeating of stronger cores. Strong
diffluence and speed divergence will further help to maintain the clusters/convective lines with back-sheared outflow anvils
expected and with bulk shear over 50kts, weak rotation may further
enhanced localized rainfall rate/efficiency due to increased
moisture flux convergence in speed and direction.

Instability is maximized around 1250-1500 J/kg (MLCAPE) across N
UT, but an west to east axis also remains along/north of the Unita
Range before broadening again near the leading SW-NE convective
line across north-central CO into south-central WY (500-1000
J/kg). Stronger cells lead this line, but remain quickly moving.
GOES-E Visible, notes a small gap from this initial line, but 2-3
more lines of cells across the Unita Range exist. Each with a
capability of a quick .25-.5" before moving through, but random
repeating may allow for localized 1-1.5" totals before the main
line adds up to another .5". So a scattered/buck-shot appearance
of 1-2" localized maxima should dot N UT/SW WY and NW CO for the
remainder of the evening. So isolated to scattered incidents of
localized flash flooding will remain possible this evening
especially in urban, rugged/steep terrain and recent burn scar
areas.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7WNtiBjzhiZU5xGFF4fmU9_0e6QTTIe4HjSvJB9XXpYxNTWIoMPiWm-trGxz1W52RQQcDbZc7b4NZnZcWVt6Myoo0pA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CYS...GJT...PIH...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43200970 42640907 42290852 41940759 41040713
40280719 40040852 39371086 39181163 39151269
39471371 40331389 42381281 43041122

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 00:32:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190031
FFGMPD
MTZ000-IDZ000-190600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1326
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Central Idaho...Southwest to south-central
Montana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190030Z - 190600Z

SUMMARY...Strong dynamics with unstable, back-building environment
to encourage slow moving/stationary cells capable of 1-1.25"/hr
rates and focused spots of 2"+ and possible widely scattered
incidents of flash flooding possible through early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of the upper low near the
OR/ID/NV line is shifting northeast under the influence of a
stronger, maturing vorticity center likely to take up residency as
the main pivot over the coming hours in central ID within the
Salmon River/Sawtooth ranges. Broad diffluent upper level flow
will maintain strong divergence and upper-level support for any
thunderstorms that continue to develop along the deformation zone
from Valley/Idaho county, ID northeast to Powell and east to
Meagher in MT. A few internal bands within the eastern quadrant
of the cyclone will have greater mid to low level confluence
across the Beaverhead Range as well as along the the most external
across south-central MT. Currently waning Visible imagery shows a
few isolated overshooting tops breaking through the cirrus along
the aforementioned bands, with greater number further east into
central MT. Strong low-level flow and veering profiles provide
weak rotation to support backbuilding along the flank as well as
increased moisture flux convergence.

The deformation zone axis also resides the highest remaining
conditionally unstable air and deepest moisture (increasing due to
depth of moisture into the MT High Plains). A band of 500-1000
J/kg of MLCAPE will be utilized and exhausted over the next few
hours and support cells capable of 1-1.25"/hr rates given
.75-1.25" of Total PWats (from the upper low center to the eastern
periphery, respectively). So cells along the downstream edge will
have higher potential but may also have greatest north-south
drift. Residency will be elongated due to the favorable
inflow/confluent inflow to support localized 2", perhaps an
isolated 2.5" total but as with loss of heating/instability rates
will reduce with time but overall coverage of moderate rainfall
should fill in the gaps through the deformation zone. All
considered, the risk of flash flooding will be more likely earlier
with the stronger, initial intense rates, but as with smaller
cores will be localized and widely scattered within the entire MPD
domain.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7mGqsNLMWVe_vwoaQd9Ot6071jBEXNG-YPlRHbOKZt125neOw7RRiQdmh8mfNbzlkXsIFdZyOmcUubXOPi-t5LIulvQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOI...BYZ...MSO...PIH...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47391110 46860887 46010785 45230771 45090839
45050987 45051107 44761134 43971211 43611352
43551467 43861556 44771628 45791599 46721496
47301309

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 01:17:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190111
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-190700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1327
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...South-central & Southeast MN...North-central &
Northeast IA...Southern WI...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190110Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms to expand/intensify over the next
few hours into a linear complex with parallel steering flow
supporting repeating/training. Rates increasing toward 1.5-2"/hr
may support 2-4" totals and possible flash flooding through early
overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and regional RADAR denotes elevated
convective initiation across south-central MN with a few isolated
tops already cooling below -65C and orienting nearly perfectly
west to east. VWP and RAP analysis shows directional convergence
from west to east along the 850-800mb FGEN boundary with SSW at
25kts becoming more southerly near the MS River Valley with 25kts
turning more southeast north of the boundary. This deep layer
convergence also aligns with the northern MUCAPE gradient though
proximity to 2000 J/kg values in NW IA are expected to advect
eastward in coverage but maintain across the Missouri Valley
overnight. A core of enhanced sub-tropical moisture in the
850-700 and 700-500mb layer is arriving from the southwest
parallel to the inverted surface trough and deep layer
southwesterly flow of the ridge before flattening out. As such a
core of 2-2.25" Total PWats exist from SD/NEB/IA border across N
IA which will help rainfall production/efficiency with time. As
such, increasing moisture flux should support rates of 1.5"/hr
reaching near 2"/hr later in the overnight period.

While surface front remains well southwest from a surface wave
near SUX and crossing SW to south-central IA, this is expected to
lift with time and further over-running to help maintain this
elevated band; there are some suggestions for some more surface to
boundary layer rooted cells may develop along the flanking line
across north-central IA, expanding the area of concern a bit.
However, deep layer (700-400mb) flow is fairly unidirectional and
parallel to the elevated convergence boundary and supportive of repeating/training cells. Barring a disruption from surface rooted
development impeding isentropic ascent and focusing cells further
south, a few hours of repeating of cells should support an axis of
2-4" of heavy rainfall with a possible isolated spot nearing 5".

Hydrologically, S MN/N IA have lower FFG values ranging from
1-2"/hr & 1.5-2.25"/3hrs, before values across the Driftless area
of SW WI increase by an order of magnitude (2-2.5"/hr &
2.5-3"/3hrs). As such, flash flooding would be more probable
across MN/IA initially, but peak moisture flux and isentropic
ascent later toward 6-7z crossing the Driftless area, may still
result in exceedance and as such flash flooding is considered
possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9wLg4dDvVM5ENRthnTgS_yVKe61duKMZgLwODIJbR6W8ZQfcwefKOHol2AGwGvavygCntHU7wJEz_PBoQ50KaGEn8dc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44409290 44289097 43568849 42958798 42618862
42739116 42839311 43019457 43429484 43939478
44219417

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 01:37:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190137
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-190700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1328
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
935 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Areas affected...Northwest & Southeast NM...Portions of Western TX Panhandle...Ext. Northeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190135Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...Few remaining widely scattered thunderstorms seeking out
remaining conditionally unstable air along periphery of potent
shortwave continue to pose rates of 1-1.5"/hr and a spot or two of
2" totals resulting in possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows well defined shortwave lifting
northeastward across west-central NM, ringed by remaining widely
scattered convective cells. 3.9um SWIR shows cells are
propagating outward from the center of the upper-low with some
outflow boundaries well defined; the convergence along which are
maintaining these scattered cells as far west as north-central
Apache/Navajo county line in E AZ and as far south as northern
Catron county in NM. Pockets of conditionally unstable air of
1000-1500 J/kg are analyzed especially along the western and
southern ring of the upper-low and given the larger scale
southwesterly flow will maintain sufficient convergence until
instability wanes further into the diurnal minimum. Drier air is
filtering in from the west, but CIRA LPW denotes solid remains of
higher moisture, especially in the 700-500mb layer but overall
values of .8 to 1" should continue to support up to 1.5"/hr, also
slowly reducing with time. As such isolated spots of up to 2"
remain possible, but intense rates alone may continue to pose
isolated flash flooding concerns through early overnight period.

Further southeast, the confluence/convergent flow along the
southeast flank of the comma-head across the Southern High Plains
of S NM, also remain conditionally unstable with slightly higher
low level moisture and convergent upslope flow from the southeast
support 1.25-1.5"/hr given 1.25" total PWats (slightly higher
850-700mb pool) and a pocket of 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE remaining.
Slow east and northeast propagation in the weak upslope flow may
reduce some residency, but recent trends suggest localized storm
effects are allowing for slower cell motions. Though FFG values
are higher due to deeper sandier soils across SE NM into the
western Panhandle of Texas, an isolated to widely scattered
incident or two of localized flash flooding remains possible
overnight.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!99XJXuAiMxpN42qBI3k9tGkn9uLLmOYROu3AXnr7Td7c4hxN-933Ew0SWLyRqu5WHo3jEh7uusFC9JA78q-Gkp5eeg4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36920791 36770584 35060535 34820327 32650331
31480366 30620481 31220621 32020655 33110566
34090610 33960755 33970883 34540978 35640986
36670919

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 05:46:54 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190546
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-191145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1329
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MN...Southern WI...Northeast
IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190545Z - 191145Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with locally
considerable areas of cell-training will continue overnight. Areas
of flash flooding are expected to continue through dawn, and this
will include locally significant urban flooding impacts given the
high rainfall rates and enhanced rainfall potential.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows strong convection
with very cold convective tops reaching -70 to -75C across
portions of southeast MN, far northeast IA and into southwest WI,
with the activity exhibiting considerable cell-training behavior
and producing very high rainfall rates.

The convection is aligned in a general west to east fashion along
a very well-defined elevated instability gradient situated well
north of a warm front focused farther south across portions of
central IA through central IL. Surface data though shows a wave of
low pressure up across western IA with an inverted surface trough
extending downstream from that across northern IA and into
southern WI.

MUCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg are noted in close proximity to
the main axis of convection which is a little north of this
surface trough, but the latest RAP guidance and VWP data suggests
an enhanced corridor of forcing/convergence around 850 mb where
much of the convection is rooted.

VWP data shows a 30 to 40+ kt southwest low-level jet riding up
across southeast MN and southwest WI which is driving rather
strong moisture and instability transport along with enhanced warm
air advection and related isentropic ascent. This is combining
with right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics for
sustainable deep layer ascent and further providing the larger
scale support for well-organized and sustainable convection.

PWs are generally on the order of 1.75 to 2.0 inches away from the
ongoing areas of convection, and this moisture profile along with
the low-level jet and favorable thermodynamic environment will
support rainfall rates overnight as high as 2.5 inches/hour.

Already some areas of southeast MN have received 4 to 6 inches of
rain based on the MRMS radar-QPE data, and with additional strong
cell-training concerns expected for southeast MN and into adjacent
areas of southwest and south-central WI over the next few hours,
additional heavy to locally extreme rainfall is expected. In fact,
the latest HRRR guidance suggests an additional 4 to 6+ inches of
rain locally. These additional rains are expected to drive areas
of considerable flash flooding, with locally significant and
potentially life-threatening urban flooding impacts. It should be
noted that areas a bit farther south into northern IL may begin to
see some of these heavy rains arriving around dawn, and thus the
flash flood threat may increase here early Saturday morning.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7zwys-3Gwk5jc-8mXYOba-zBsVL0SdjtBjsocrpScvf-tu0dV6wxgMu84IDTScG5RCePj6y8vYhy_C762U6gpflggSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44259263 43999086 43618873 43178757 42808715
42318717 41948751 41868815 41958935 42329119
43139313 43789378 44169361

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 07:33:48 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190733
FFGMPD
MTZ000-191330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1330
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190730Z - 191330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the early morning hours across southern MT. Some
flash flooding will be possible, and this will include potential
for urban flooding around Billings.

DISCUSSION...A deep layer trough and associated closed low center
across the northern Rockies will continue to support areas of
heavy rainfall across southern MT going into the morning hours.
This will include potential for locally concentrated areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms as stronger deep layer forcing and
pooling of at least modest instability focuses in close proximity
to a quasi-stationary front draped across southeast MT.

A surface low center across northern WY should tend to focus close
to the MT border which will allow for a substantial axis of moist
easterly flow to interact with and overrun the front. This
corresponding moisture transport/convergence across southern MT
along with a strengthening TROWAL signature over the region will
likely allow for a sustainable axis of heavy rainfall, with some
increase in rainfall rates.

MUCAPE values generally around 500 to 750 J/kg along with the
rather anomalous PW environment and associated moisture transport
should support some rainfall rates as high as 1.5 inches/hour with
any of the embedded stronger convective elements that materialize
over the next several hours.

The locally concentrated nature of some of the rainfall may allow
for some additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches by early
Saturday morning, and these rains may allow for some areas of
flash flooding. This will include potential for localized urban
flooding impacts, and especially around the Billings vicinity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9k8uL0gUtSNxkIjf50HotAilrC8DiZ46TnN-or2DOFNK_P9kMKPBVqU9BfEp6CaxS4onzy7v4NU9VKeO3bNi5AA-nSg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 46951097 46920896 46680720 46170626 45690623
45310665 45170761 45140870 45441042 45991152
46471192 46781177

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 09:57:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 190957
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-191530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1331
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northern
IL...Southwest Lower MI...Northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 190955Z - 191530Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some areas of
backbuilding and training cell-activity will continue to advance
southeastward this morning while fostering areas of flash
flooding. Some locally considerable urban flooding impacts will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows strong MCS activity
with heavy showers and thunderstorms dropping gradually down to
the southeast across large areas of eastern IA, southern WI and
northern IL. This includes localized areas of backbuilding and
training convection across especially northeast IA and into
northwest IL, and this is also where some of the coldest
convective cloud tops are noted.

The convection remains aligned out ahead of a wave of low pressure
advancing east across central IA and north of a warm front that
extends east from the low center across eastern IA through central
IL and southern IN. MUCAPE values of around 1000 to 1500 J/kg are
in place across much of the region, and this coupled with the nose
of a southwest low-level jet reaching 30 to 40 kts should continue
to maintain a fairly well-organized axis of mainly elevated
convection going through the early to mid-morning hours. Enhanced
isentropic ascent and favorable jet dynamics aloft will be key
supporters of this stronger convective activity at least in the
near-term, and this will also be inclusive of some continuing
backbuilding and cell-training concerns.

PWs remain quite elevated with magnitudes of 1.75 to 2.0 inches
and this along with the instability and deeper layer moisture
transport will maintain a likelihood for some rainfall rates to
reach well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with even some spotty
heavier rates possible.

The latest hires model guidance suggests potential for additional
swaths of 2 to 4+ inches of rain going through the early to
mid-morning hours, with generally the heaviest rainfall totals
more likely to impact areas of eastern IA and northern IL where
there is a bit of a stronger setup for cell-training and
backbuilding convection.

Areas of flash flooding will be likely, and this will include a
corridor of impacts generally along a line from Dubuque, IA
eastward across Rockford and Chicago in northern IL, and down into
northern IN including South Bend. Adjacent areas of southwest
Lower MI may also see some potential for these impacts. Locally
considerable urban flooding will be possible across some of these
areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!733eSpcKm0OHSnhLTkh--YMuBQRNsJaXr9LUdMtI2fUacublg5wRYwmt1JezF72VdeB9FOFYzZVZkixwoimCTIWwGz4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...
MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43439161 43258952 43238773 42968578 42418473
41658470 41008534 40768621 40658745 40788933
41359189 42009270 42899259

= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 14:02:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191402
FFGMPD
MTZ000-191900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1332
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...south-central and southeastern MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191358Z - 191900Z

SUMMARY...At least localized pockets of flash flooding will be
likely across south-central and southeastern MT over the next 4-6
hours. Embedded hourly rates of 1.0 to 1.5 inches are expected
with additional totals of 2 to 3+ inches through 19Z.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery at 1330Z showed a potent closed
upper level low slowly advancing toward the southeast over
southern ID with the warm conveyor belt arcing northward toward a
deformation zone across MT. Infrared satellite and radar imagery
along with lightning data showed a uptick in the intensity of
rainfall across eastern MT since 11Z, within a diffluent upper
flow pattern, along a west-east axis located ~25 miles north of
Miles City. This axis of heavy rain was focused within a band of
convergence within the 700-600 mb layer where overlap occurred
with an estimated 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE in place (via 13Z SPC
mesoanalysis data). While ground truth was difficult to determine
due to a lack of observation stations, MRMS-estimated hourly
rainfall was just over 1 inch across localized portions of
Garfield County ending 13Z.

Little change is forecast over the next 1-2 hours with the
latitude of the elevated convergence axis, but beyond that, the
axis is forecast to become disrupted by recent runs of the RAP
with some southward displacement and fragmentation given the
forecast development of embedded circulations within the zone of
convergence. The result will be continued steady rainfall for much
of the region but with embedded pockets of higher hourly rainfall
totals (1.0 to 1.5 inches) where locally higher instability is
encountered. There will also a notable upslope component with
easterly to northeasterly low level flow into the higher terrain
west and northwest of Billings. Additional 6-hour rainfall totals
of 1 to 2 inches are expected but localized totals of 2 to 3+
inches will also be possible through 19Z. Given overlap with heavy
rainfall that has already occurred over south-central MT, and the
localized higher rainfall rates over the next several hours, at
least localized flash flooding is considered likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!__aMifWoQfWFzZu76HSUHNunVLDPGM0YnEmvh803WcFCmcTnNItwlnL9KJd5_fMjeirUPHB_HrDPA7K9iK7uKdELRpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 47440643 47280471 46960414 45780410 45280484
45070625 45010753 45030905 45140998 45491074
45851139 46361170 46831128 47031048 47240888

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 19:22:20 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191922
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1333
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...south-central/southeastern MT into adjacent High
Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191919Z - 200115Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of localized flash flooding will be possible
from south-central and southern MT into portions of northeastern
WY and western SD through 01Z. Peak rainfall totals of 1 to 2
inches (locally higher) are expected.

DISCUSSION...Through 19Z, areas of mostly stratiform rain
continued to impact portions of south-central to southeastern MT
where reports of 1 to 3+ inches have been noted over the past 24
hours. This region of MT was located northeast of a closed mid to
upper-level level low advancing slowly southeastward over southern
ID with a deformation axis over southern MT providing ascent
beneath diffluent flow aloft. Water vapor imagery showed somewhat
transient mid-level vorticity maxima embedded within the
deformation axis which have helped to focus locally heavier
rainfall but instability of ~500 J/kg or less across
southern/southeastern MT has limited the coverage of thunderstorms
and higher embedded rainfall rates. However, pockets of
MRMS-derived hourly rainfall near 1 inch have occurred over the
past few hours and portions of the region have received 1 to 3
inches of rain (locally higher) over the past 24 hours generating
at least partially saturated soils. With little change to the
large scale pattern over the next 6 hours, little change is
anticipated over MT with continued isolated potential for hourly
rainfall peaking near 1 inch and localized flash flooding.

Visible imagery farther south showed breaks in cloud cover over
northern WY into southwestern SD with building cumulus or the
early stages of convective initiation. Standardized anomalies of 2
to 3+ for precipitable water were located over the northern High
Plains along with building MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg (via SPC
mesoanalysis data). Thunderstorms are expected to become scattered
in nature through 22Z across much of WY into the High Plains/Black
Hills out ahead of the advancing upper low to the west. These
storms will have marginal instability/shear profiles but any
quasi-organized cells will carry greater potential for heavy rain
rates. Interaction of cells with 10-15 kt of easterly upslope flow
(stronger over southern MT) may support slower overall movement of
heavy rain cores and hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches. These locally
higher rates may produce flash flooding across a limited scale
with storm totals generally in the 1 to 2 inch range (locally
higher possible).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5dO8K2zRMj-9T-EKfMRJ3Ebju9V_j8tzlsDuLDnb5Sx0rRbpgYiOXDvCQAIY0LCc49OE3U0PuXAFjeQLl6HA41Szsjk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...CYS...GGW...LBF...RIW...TFX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 47300871 47250652 46750488 46030382 44940296
43420252 42730284 42500360 42820457 44370619
45060721 45520964 46091054 46811065 47201007

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 19:41:30 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 191941
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1334
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Northwestern NM...East-Central AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191938Z - 200000Z

SUMMARY...Some episodes of back-building convection this afternoon
may lead to some localized instances of flash flooding through 6
pm local time, mainly across topographically vulnerable terrain.

DISCUSSION...Doppler radar imagery from Albuquerque is indicating
a recent increase in convection oriented from southwest to
northeast across west-central portions of New Mexico early this
afternoon. There are radar estimates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour
with the stronger cells, and this may be enough to overcome flash
flood guidance values across the region. These storms are
developing ahead of an incoming 500 mb vortmax within an
environment of moderate instability of 750-1250 J/kg of mixed
layer CAPE and PWs of generally 0.75 to 1 inch.

The latest CAM guidance suggests the potential for patchy swaths
of 1-2 inch totals, with much of this happening within a two hour
time period for any given location. The RRFS is strongest with the
convection and shows the potential for someisolated 2+ inch totals
possible. The region has experienced anomalous rainfall over the
past week, which is an aggravating factor for potential flooding
where storms develop. Therefore, some instances of flash flooding
will be possible through 6 pm this evening.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5KKc7CBT02g_EgBEBFKwd2ly2PpfzuUMX0GTzIsTD_nKmfArGgY9LSNswzjFOWRMtb3utGaYGWN5pnlj8RGs3YNJNtQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36490666 36490624 36320597 36030584 35550579
35140593 34640636 34280679 33920727 33660773
33480845 33450906 33620941 33870947 34200937
34620904 34980868 35520807 36340713

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Sep 19 21:20:34 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 192120
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-200200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1335
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...West-Central TX...Southeast NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192117Z - 200200Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of localized flash flooding will be possible
from the Davis Mountains of southwestern Texas to near the
Amarillo area through 2Z. Peak rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
are expected with the most persistent storms, with much of this
falling within a 90 minute time period.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are showing an increasing in
strong convection in the general vicinity of a modest drytline
near the TX/NM border. These storms have been rather slow moving
and likely producing rainfall rates close to 2 inches per hour,
and these will likely increase in areal coverage over the next few
hours. Farther to the south across the Davis Mountains of
southwestern Texas, a separate complex of slow moving storms has
developed to the east of a mid-level vortmax with PWs near 1.25
inches and mixed layer CAPE of 1000-200 J/kg per recent SPC
mesoanalysis.

The general expectation going forward into the early evening hours
will be for some additional thunderstorm complexes to develop and
exhibit slow cell motions. Recent CAM guidance is likely underdone
with expected QPF across the region given recent radar trends,
with the RRFS closer to reality compared to the much drier HRRR
guidance. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible
through 2Z.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_4l0c56yEUedhNHCp8MeXAJ7Cr9dEU57XKy5B7CbwvVDpwjF5GeqlmGiYJQznpubqjVlmRvaVyLnUaPCUcRD_LDYhco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35090168 34940116 34290121 33850143 33230181
32570218 31910227 30610219 30270245 30180312
30260419 30570452 31240457 32090417 32750371
33230343 33860300 34400250

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 01:23:28 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200123
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-200700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1336
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
921 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Northeast KS...Southeast NE...Southern
IA...Northern MO...Western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200120Z - 200700Z

SUMMARY...Widespread heavy rainfall is likely going into the early
overnight hours as multiple rounds of thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates affect the outlook area. Some instances of flash
flooding are likely where the most persistent convective training
develops through 2 AM local time.

DISCUSSION...An MCS is developing across northeastern Kansas this
evening near a wave of low pressure along a slow moving frontal
boundary, and south of a 500 mb vortmax. Current GOES-E infrared
satellite imagery is indicating an expanding anvil canopy with
cooling cloud tops, indicative of robust convection with high
rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour based on recent Doppler
radar estimates.

A well defined surface front is analyzed with multiple waves of
low pressure from central Kansas to central Illinois. Near the
boundary exists a corridor of enhanced PWs between 1.9 and 2.2
inches within an environment of 1500-2500 K/kg of mixed layer CAPE
based on recent SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, the mean low to mid
level flow is nearly parallel to the boundary with veering 850 mb
flow directed towards, thus increasing the potential for
back-building convection with locally enhanced rainfall.

The latest CAM guidance suite is indicating good overall agreement
on a swath of 2-4 inch rainfall totals, with isolated QPF maxima
potentially exceeding these values based on RRFS and NAM conest
depictions. Flash flood guidance is also slightly lower over parts
of the outlook area owing to heavy rainfall over the past week.
Some instances of flash flooding are likely within the axes of
most persistent convective backbuilding.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9G_A4V4Z9E6YvMgrbao_73LQ5xrwgmX8ohakeobbH2aOpN6IbUtCrdxgFpx_T2Nf5Wfm36j6YdPGWha8sbKlEqfZdJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41829228 41779050 41368966 40578936 39949009
39889133 39799187 39699250 39569303 39389356
39239411 38709536 38179621 38089677 38099720
38279759 38219765 38579776 38869776 39199747
39499715 39999656 40379598 40839531 41279443
41559355

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 02:10:36 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200207
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-200805-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1337
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern WY...Far Southeast
MT...Western SD...NE Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200205Z - 200805Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms developing and expanding
in coverage across portions of the High Plains and the Black Hills
may result in some areas of flash flooding going through the
overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...An ejecting upper-level trough from the northern
Rockies will be overspreading portions of the High Plains
overnight, and this will bring clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms to areas of central and eastern WY, far southeast
MT, western SD, and the NE Panhandle region. This will include the
Black Hills.

The energy will be favoring an area of low pressure across eastern
WY which will help to enhance the low-level convergence across the
region and especially near portions of the Black Hills where radar
imagery already shows some locally organized clusters of strong
convection. MUCAPE values ahead of this surface low center are on
the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, and there is plenty of moisture in
place for heavy rainfall rates with PWs running upwards of 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal.

The 18Z HREF/REFS consensus suggests an uptick in convective
organization over the next several hours across areas of eastern
WY and near the SD/NE border region as strong DPVA associated with
the upper trough ejects across these areas. Some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour, with some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall
totals will be possible overnight. The HREF/REFS consensus
suggests some probabilities locally as high as 50 to 70 percent
for seeing the 3-hour FFG values exceeded.

Therefore, given the guidance and the current radar and satellite
trends, some areas of flash flooding will be possible. The threat
may extend as far north as southeast MT, but generally the
heaviest rainfall is expected to be across eastern WY and in close
proximity to the Black Hills with areas as far south as the
northwest part of the NE Panhandle potentially seeing some of
these heavier rains and impacts as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_ig6u7F84K0-7VAmVuuuvdzLLX7kW1uQaHgrV5Fs6ut5EvrNnwHtMqSemsQS1OiGRKGUCYTUkLZDK9BIY9I1M7ZYMXA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...CYS...LBF...RIW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45440370 45040296 44100252 42970252 42230291
41870391 41950495 42440636 42440822 42810928
43380933 43950730 44630595 45310484

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 03:52:00 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200348
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-200930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1338
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1147 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200347Z - 200930Z

SUMMARY...Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible as
some uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity occurs over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows some development and expansion of shower and
thunderstorm activity taking place across portions of southern OH.
This activity is occurring as warm air advection increases out
ahead of a couple of weak waves of low pressure advancing east
along frontal zone.

Modest low-amplitude shortwave energy transiting the OH Valley is
also playing a role with some of the convective development as it
interacts with moderate instability characterized by MUCAPE values
of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg. The airmass is quite moist with PWs of 1.75
to 2.0 inches, and this will be supporting convective cells
capable of producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour.

The 00Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs suggest some additional
expansion of showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours
across southern OH, and the activity will likely advance
downstream into western WV later in the night. Some cell-training
is possible given the alignment of the convection with the deeper
layer steering flow.

Localized rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, and
this may support some isolated areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5xXAefdkI37cyZut6rSx1Iz02hI6QPwAM8CwPkWTrRfEqgkXNNkfY5LgT-wijamYFqg-8eLbqezqJoCkgYllMMzdKxs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40258350 40118231 39828104 39348017 38678020
38398098 38468205 38748331 39208435 39738466
40128428

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 05:09:10 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200506
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1339
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern IA...Northern IL...Northern
IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200505Z - 201105Z

SUMMARY...Expanding and locally training clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms will drive a major increase in the threat for
flash flooding overnight, and some of this may be locally
significant.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
cold-topped convective clusters expanding in coverage across
southern and eastern IA along with portions of north-central IL as
a wave of low pressure and associated shortwave impulse lifts
east-northeast across the region.

Increasing warm air advection and moisture transport ahead of this
energy will set the stage for a more expansive convective
footprint over the next several hours as convection expands in
coverage. Much of the activity should tend to be focused along and
north of a quasi-stationary front extending east from the low
center across eastern IA and down through central IL and southern
IN.

However, this front will attempt to lift north in time as a warm
front as the nose of a southwest low-level jet strengthens to 30
to 40+ kts, and this will allow for convection in time to impact
areas of northern IL and northern IN in conjunction with the
corridor of strongest isentropic ascent.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are already in place across the
region, and with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches coinciding with a
strengthening low-level jet, the rainfall rates are likely to be
quite high. Some rainfall rates based on the 00Z HREF/REFS suite
of guidance are forecast to increase to 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

Gradually there will be concerns for cell-training as the
convection becomes aligned in a more west to east fashion near and
to the north of the front. Cell-training concerns will drive
potential for localized swaths of 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals
going through dawn and that is supported by the 00Z hires CAM
consensus.

The 3-hour FFG exceedance probabilities from the 00Z HREF/REFS
guidance are very high across eastern IA through northern IL. This
is an area that has seen heavy rainfall recently and has a very
moist antecedent footprint with elevated soil moisture and high
streamflows. This along with low FFGs overall suggest a high
likelihood for flash flooding overnight and extending through
early Sunday morning. Locally significant flash flooding impacts
will be possible and this will include concerns for the more
sensitive urban environments.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6sWCVY2pLq8lBGALntL_A7OU7qc246Sl_4QEN8DnZX028HYw0e2DA380OHdeUvT-A70xYai89t5j03XeMUeYs4aVE-0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42578945 42438788 42208674 41908588 41538506
40958487 40578514 40498564 40498685 40528864
40639090 40879267 41359352 41909343 42269274
42509138

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 08:22:14 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200821
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-201300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1340
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western and Central WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200820Z - 201300Z

SUMMARY...Additional areas of flash flooding will be likely
through mid-morning from locally repeating rounds of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar data shows multiple rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms locally repeating over the same area across portions
of southern OH and into western and central WV. Separate
convective activity more recently has developed across portions of
southwest PA as well. All of this activity is being facilitated by
the advance of surface low pressure up across northeast OH and
warm air advection lifting up across the Upper OH Valley and the
central Appalachians.

Modest low-amplitude shortwave energy transiting the region is
also still interacting with modest instability characterized by
MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg, with the greatest instability
generally down across northeast KY, far southeast OH and into
central and southern WV. Some stronger updrafts and occasional
overshooting top activity is seen in the IR satellite images
advancing into western WV, and some of these stronger convective
cells are still capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates, and especially with a moist column characterized by PWs
locally near 2 inches.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests additional concerns for
repeating rounds of convection going through the early to
mid-morning hours. Some additional rainfall totals may locally
reach 2 to 3+ inches given the higher rainfall rates with some of
the stronger storms. It should be noted that some hires guidance
does suggest some potential for convection to redevelop by
mid-morning farther back to the northwest across south-central OH
in connection to the advance of the upstream Midwest convective
activity and related downstream warm air advection, so this will
needy to be closely monitored.

Given areas of ongoing flash flooding, the low FFG values more
regionally across the region, and the generally elevated
streamflows, these repeating rounds of heavy rainfall are likely
to result in additional areas of flash flooding this morning. The
greatest potential for this will mainly be across far southern OH
through central WV which is where the overall heaviest axis of
rainfall is expected over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8tu0ryKHTHMgJXnDKEOtORRckYlsOAJRtSk7zFEVhLHDlUYcSQOJC20ekyyeURbivdcR-kHDgM_Oj7O7m79mY7ihnYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40018206 39698041 39087934 38527943 38157991
37908054 37898135 38078209 38448284 39028435
39648430 39888375

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 09:50:38 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 200950
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-201400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1341
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
548 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern IA...Northern IL...Far Southern
WI...Far Southwest Lower MI...Northern IN...Northwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200948Z - 201400Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms with locally high
rainfall rates will continue into the morning hours. Additional
areas of flash flooding will remain possible for at least a few
more hours as a result.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
elongating axis of cold-topped convection extending from far
eastern IA through northern IL and also now into areas of northern
IN. Regional radar data also confirms some localized corridors of cell-training, and all of this convection continues to be driven
largely be the advance of a wave of low pressure and associated
shortwave across the Midwest.

The downstream advance of warm air advection and deeper layer
moisture transport in conjunction with a warm front lifting
northward should allow some of the stronger convective activity
over northern IL to become a little more concentrated across parts
of northern IN in the near-term with perhaps some of this
spreading into northwest OH.

A southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts should gradually veer a
bit more this morning and eventually start to weaken, but this
combined with the remaining elevated instability pool and high PW
environment should continue to favor locally high rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 inches/hour. MUCAPE values along the advancing warm
front are still close to 1000 J/kg with PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.

The latest HRRR guidance suggests some additional localized swaths
of 2 to 3 inch rainfall amounts, with areas of northern IL and
northern IN most likely to see the greater concentrations of these
rainfall amounts.

Generally, the larger scale convective footprint should begin to
weaken by mid-morning, but the additional rains in the near-term
should still favor a concern for some additional areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9nOVLrtKWN2IB7mVF0Uxuj7WKPAPEmas25vuyNfs3-vqaBcbrkAIKQIiFbL82IwURBXEpngKJwb4KvDa3DtOT9rBkBM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILN...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42888824 42728692 42458559 42068462 41618396
41068385 40678446 40718573 40908678 41188805
41298873 41379008 41839074 42409059 42758977

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 22:36:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202236
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-210430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1342
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...south-central IL into IN, western/southern OH and
the upper OH River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202233Z - 210430Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from
south-central IL into IN, western/southern OH and the upper OH
Valley through 04Z. Training of cells will produce hourly rainfall
of 1-2 inches with storm totals of 2-4 inches possible into the
early overnight.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery from 22Z showed a mid-level
vorticity max over southwestern Lower MI, tracking east, and
preceded by stratiform light to moderate rain. A lack of
instability was preventing higher rates across northern IN/OH into
southern Lower MI. However, a few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall were observed to the south of
the vorticity max, located just north of a west-east oriented
quasi-stationary front, and ahead of a subtle impulse over
east-central IL. The stronger cells were located within the
northern end of an instability pool containing 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE and precipitable water values of 1.6 to 1.9 inches, via 22Z
SPC mesoanalysis data, along and just north of the frontal
boundary, supportive of high rainfall rates.

Given the recent uptick in the intensity of cells and a forecast
for the front to begin advancing south over the next 6 hours,
current thinking is that shower and thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage across IN/OH and possibly IL within the mean
westerly steering flow. Instances of training will be possible as
storm coverage increases. Aiding ascent will be diffluent winds
aloft, with upper level winds from the west across northern
IL/IN/OH but veering toward the southeast as one moves south,
around an upper ridge axis extending northeastward into the lower
OH Valley.

Training of cells will produce hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
(locally higher) with the potential for peak storm totals to reach
2 to 4 inches through 04Z. Current thinking is that any flash
flooding will remain isolated in coverage, though lower flash
flood guidance values of 2 inches or less in 3 hours across OH may
present a locally higher risk if stronger cells are able to train
across these eastern locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-M6ggkutKOi_8kKJ1lDmxkKqZ8hnTW8JCZeExgq1rabhT1dJGTEPaNwA5FQyVz1sZLXIYTXfYda16CJqFpvOwFRo5o8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...LSX...PAH...
PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40988481 40868395 40618269 40198173 39378149
38808167 38388212 38318288 38758448 38778596
38538751 38538895 38738957 39028977 39428974
39718931 39898880 40088766 40338693 40778589

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Sep 20 23:25:50 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 202325
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-210515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1343
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
724 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...MO/IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202323Z - 210515Z

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage across MO into IL
through 05Z will likely be associated with areas of training at
times. Within areas of training, hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
is expected along with isolated 6-hour totals of 2 to 4 inches
(locally higher rates/totals possible), possibly leading to
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...23Z radar imagery showed scattered showers and
thunderstorms from southwestern MO into eastern OK, along a trough
axis/outflow boundary within the warm sector of a slow moving
frontal boundary that draped WSW through MO into northeastern OK.
A remnant MCV in the vicinity of Tulsa, OK, appears to be helping
provide ascent across downstream locations into southwestern MO.

The environment near the frontal boundary across MO into IL
contained a range of MLCAPE values from 500-2000 J/kg (highest
over OK) and high precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches
(via 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data). As the MCV over northeast OK
tracks northeastward into the early overnight, thunderstorms are
expected to expand through MO into IL. Additional ascent is
expected ahead of an upstream mid to upper-level trough axis over
western KS into western TX, forecast to advance eastward. The
trough will be preceded by a strengthening upper level jet max
forecast from eastern KS into IA, with upper level divergence and
diffluence increasing over MO through 06Z.

Areas of training from southwest to northeast or west to east are
likely to occur at times from MO into IL. The environment will be
supportive of hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, although locally
higher values may occur with any longer duration training. These
higher rates may result in localized flash flooding from
southwestern MO and adjoining portions of KS, OK and AR into MO
and southern IL.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4ZVzCUds5ko8Eo4aGcT3vu851sbImoJJlcvfocXK64mW0rfuaZ963W7lp6Ims4eaqTp0osErV-avKTj98PJhdxUYBGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448902 39318821 38828794 38188845 37828921
37379058 36619220 35889455 36649513 37249482
38229350 38929228 39329009

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Sep 21 00:05:26 2026

AWUS01 KWNH 210005
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-210600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1344
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...central to northern TX into southeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210003Z - 210600Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms will maintain a localized
flash flood threat across central to northern TX into southeastern
OK for another 3-6 hours, Efficient rainfall production will
result in isolated hourly rainfall of 2-4 inches and storm totals
of 3 to 5+ inches.

DISCUSSION...2340Z satellite/radar imagery showed a broken axis of thunderstorms extending from the TX Hill Country into northern TX
and far southeastern OK. Loops of infrared satellite imagery
showed cloud tops were warming to the south of the DFW Metroplex,
but areas of cooling continued over the Edwards Plateau and near
the Red River. These storms were forming within an axis of higher
PWs (1.8 to 2.1 inches) and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg via 23Z SPC
mesoanalysis data, located ahead of ah mid to upper-level trough
advancing east across the southern High Plains. Right-entrance
region upper level jet divergence and diffluent flow aloft were
aiding large scale lift over TX. Slow storm motions and efficient
rainfall production have produced hourly rainfall as high as 3-4
inches and 15-minute rainfall over 1 inch near Denison, just south
of the Red River ending ~2330Z.

Expectations are for somewhat chaotic storm motions to continue
with storm generated outflows igniting new development over the
next few hours. Some westward development may also occur in the
next few hours. The favorable environment will maintain the
potential for very high rates in excess of 3 inches in an hour at
times along with 15-minute rainfall over 1 inch. Overlap of these
higher rates with urban areas or sensitive terrain in the Hill
Country may result in localized areas of flash flooding. Storms
should gradually wind down through 06Z, related to increasing
convective inhibition and eastward advancement of the upper trough
into central and eastern TX later in the night.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4_-ZwCYVwpc-WYZFPHGf-pa1LfhFFJa_u0yOkZKLmPDlvT4K-fKIuQkbym_7ElrnmPGRU0jmHqTxWXhooN9p6yppwIo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34279615 34159550 33409554 31269705 29819808
29279920 29560037 30020069 30430074 30880070
31340059 31940031 32230002 32639948 32959880
33279816 33609750 34219674

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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)

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