ACUS11 KWNS 252142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252141
AZZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 252141Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple severe gusts may occur with embedded downbursts
this afternoon and evening. A couple of gusts could exceed 75 mph.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicells and pulse-cellular storms have
gradually congealed into a loosely organized MCS, which is sagging south-southwestward off of the higher terrain. As the MCS and its
cold pool propagates toward the lower terrain, it will overspread a
hot and deeply mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures over 110
F, amid 50s F dewpoints, yields 1500-2000 J/kg DCAPE amid 50-60 F
surface T/Td spreads, suggesting that ample evaporative cooling
potential exists for embedded downbursts to produce potential
several severe gusts. Given the magnitude of evaporative cooling
potential present, 75+ mph gusts may occur. One or more haboobs may
develop with this storm cluster and produce low-visibility
conditions as well.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 07/25/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5En8UNg4kgJ8QURmUPi70BZRyWOUZu9HXxaK_gnvw6G30PxmFqrywbMCsrif8lVdsl3SE5pFu-ufOwKc20jZrrixjtI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 34811251 34331090 33831000 33210968 32881000 32711051
32561099 32731162 33021217 33281259 33551275 33791281
34811251

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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