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  • DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 09:07:28 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 160904
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 160902

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0402 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    The mid-level pattern across the US will continue to be
    characterized by a West Coast trough, Intermountain West ridge, and
    Great Lakes/East Coast trough through the extended period. The main
    belt of westerlies will be found along the northern periphery of the Intermountain West ridge.

    A couple of short-wave troughs will feature prominently during the
    forecast period. The first of these will be moving off the East
    Coast on Sunday (Day 4). The second will be the closed low located
    across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. This low will open into a
    mid-level short-wave trough as it crests the Intermountain West
    ridge, before diving southeast across the Great Lakes early next
    week.

    Sunday's East Coast departing mid-level wave will leave behind a
    surface boundary arced from Virginia west-northwest into the Upper
    Midwest. To the south of this boundary, a warm, moist airmass will
    support afternoon MUCAPE values in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, locally
    higher. This boundary will slowly push southward into the Carolinas
    during the afternoon.

    Modest height falls will overspread this boundary across the
    Carolinas during the afternoon as a the region remains on the
    southern fringes of the departing wave's basal region. Additionally,
    a weak mid-/upper-level level low across Florida/the eastern Gulf
    will lift northward as it rejoins the westerlies. The combination of
    modest height falls, strong instability, and the presence of a
    surface boundary will result in scattered thunderstorm development
    capable of producing strong thunderstorm outflows and wind damage. A
    15% area has been introduced across the Carolinas for Sunday/Day-4
    to account for this potential.

    The next time/area of potential concern will be across portions of
    the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes on Monday/Day-5. Here, both
    the physics-based GEFS and EC ensemble guidance and the GFS and
    EC-based AI emulators are in good agreement that height falls will
    overspread the region ahead of the next short-wave trough. However,
    the GFS-based ensemble means are considerably weaker with the
    strength of the trough, partially owing to differences in timing of
    the main wave. The background environment will likely be favorable
    for severe thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg
    range and strong vertical shear, the magnitude of which will be
    largely influenced by the strength of the mid-level wave. That said, west/southwesterly flow in the 925-700 millibar layer should support
    a strong EML given the antecedent hot and dry airmass upstream of
    this flow. This leads to concerns regarding convective initiation
    within the favorable severe background environment. These concerns
    are supported by the ensemble guidance with varying degrees of QPF
    shown within the ensemble members. Given this is still 5 days away,
    will hold off on introducing unconditional severe probabilities with
    this forecast.

    ..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 07:57:04 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 170756
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 170755

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0255 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Days 4-6/Mon-Wed -- Great Lakes/Midwest to the
    Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

    A shortwave upper trough initially over the Canadian Prairies and
    northern Plains will develop east/southeast across the Upper
    Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday, then the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic
    vicinity on Tuesday. Meanwhile, another upper shortwave trough will
    develop across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on
    Wednesday. These features will support enhancement of mid/upper
    level flow as a surface low tracks across Ontario/Quebec and New
    England during this time. A trailing cold front will likewise
    progress east/southeast over this three day period, with a very
    moist and unstable airmass present ahead of the front. This overall
    pattern will likely bring multiple days of severe storm potential
    from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes to portions of the Ohio Valley,
    Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity Monday through Wednesday,
    necessitating severe probabilities. While these areas may shift some
    over the coming day as the timing of mesoscale features and
    influence of prior days convection becomes more clear, these general
    regions are most likely to see at least isolated to widely scattered
    damaging wind potential as the upper trough and surface cold front
    sweep across the area.

    ...Days 7-8/Thu-Fri...

    Surface high pressure building behind the aforementioned surface
    cold front will become centered over the Midwest late in the
    forecast period. Upper troughing will persist across the East while
    an amplified upper ridge remains oriented from TX to MT. Overall,
    severe potential appears low late in the forecast period.

    ..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 07:59:14 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 180759
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 180757

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4-5/Tue-Wed -- Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic Vicinity...

    An upper trough will pivot across the region on Tuesday and
    Wednesday, bringing enhanced southerly flow aloft as a surface cold
    front sweeps east/southeast through Wednesday night. Ahead of the
    surface front, rich boundary layer moisture will be in place, and at
    least moderate destabilization should occur. Convection could be
    ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of IL/IN/Lower MI/western OH.
    The extent of this activity is unclear and will depend on the
    evolution of any potential MCS in the Day 3 period. Nevertheless,
    the downstream airmass across parts of the Ohio Valley will become
    favorable for scattered severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
    evening, likely in the form of one or more line segments organizing
    ahead of the advancing cold front. An additional area of severe
    storms will be possible on Tuesday across the Mid-Atlantic within a
    warm advection regime ahead of the approaching system over the Ohio
    Valley. Some areas could see more than one round of severe
    thunderstorms on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

    By Wednesday, the severe risk should spread east from the
    Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas as the upper trough and surface cold
    front continue to shift east. It is uncertain how far north the
    severe risk may extend and probabilities may eventually need to be
    included across parts of the Northeast/New England. Where storms do
    form, damaging winds will be possible until the cold front moves
    offshore Wednesday evening/night.

    ...Days 6-8/Thu-Sat...

    Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through the end
    of the forecast period, but deep-layer flow will weaken. High
    pressure in the wake of the cold frontal passage will preclude
    severe potential across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and
    Northeast Thursday through Saturday.

    Across the Plains and western U.S., a strong upper anticyclone will
    park over the southern Plains, with an amplified upper ridge
    building into the northern Rockies. Some thunderstorm potential
    could develop across parts of the Plains as low-level moisture
    increases beneath the ridge. However, severe potential is uncertain
    as any potential would be driven by mesoscale features not well
    defined at this time frame, and as the upper ridge suppresses any
    large-scale support for organized severe thunderstorms.

    ..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 07:48:06 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 190747
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 190746

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Wed - Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

    An upper trough will lift northeast across the region on Wednesday.
    At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from roughly the
    Hudson Valley to the central Appalachians at the beginning of the
    period. Within a zone of strong warm advection ahead of the surface
    front, widespread showers and thunderstorm may be ongoing across
    parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in uncertainty
    regarding northward extent of severe potential. For now, the 15
    percent severe probability has been confined to portions of the
    southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas ahead of the surface trough/cold
    front. A very moist airmass will be in place across the region, and
    25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes are forecast. Thunderstorm
    clusters or linear bands are expected to move across the region
    through evening, posing mainly a risk for damaging winds.

    ...Days 5-8/Thu-Sun...

    Severe potential is expected to be lower late in the week into the
    weekend. An upper trough will persist over the eastern U.S., but
    deep-layer flow will be weak. Further west, the subtropical high
    will intensify over the Plains and into the Four Corners vicinity
    while the associated amplified upper ridge persists northward into
    the Canadian Prairies. As boundary layer moisture spreads northward
    beneath the upper ridge, some severe potential could develop each
    day across parts of the High Plains. However, this will largely be
    driven by mesoscale processes not well resolved at longer lead
    times. Overall, the intense upper ridge should largely suppress
    greater severe potential.

    ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 08:05:02 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 200804
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 200802

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early
    next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop
    the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater
    severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily
    mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts
    of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture
    across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow
    aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some
    model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two
    migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains
    and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across
    these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any
    15 percent probability areas at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 07:20:44 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 210720
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 210718

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0218 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Great Lakes/Midwest...

    An amplified upper ridge will persist across the Plains and Rockies
    through early next week. Periods of strengthening northwesterly
    mid/upper flow are expected on the eastern periphery of the upper
    ridge as a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the
    Canadian Prairies and glance the Great Lakes vicinity, mainly Day
    5-7/Sat-Mon. This could support areas of severe thunderstorm
    potential across parts of the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley
    vicinity during this time as stronger northwesterly flow overspreads
    a seasonally moist and unstable airmass. However, both traditional physics-based NWP and ML/AI NWP are inconsistent and/or show
    relatively low/broad probability areas -- increasing uncertainty in
    timing and spatial delineation of severe potential. Given the
    proximity to the upper ridge, capping may be a concern. Trends will
    be monitored and severe probabilities may become necessary is
    confidence increases in subsequent outlooks.

    ..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 07:28:16 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 220728
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 220726

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

    An upper ridge centered over the High Plains will persist through
    the middle of next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing will be
    maintained over the eastern U.S. Periods of enhanced northwesterly
    flow aloft are expected across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great
    Lakes into parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on the eastern
    periphery of the Plains upper ridge. Several shortwave impulses are
    forecast to develop southeast from Canada within this northwest flow
    regime. This could support daily severe thunderstorm chances from
    the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley, and possibly the
    Mid-Atlantic. However, the timing of these features is uncertain,
    and midlevel capping could limit the spatial extent of severe
    potential. It is likely that portions of the Upper Midwest into the
    Ohio Valley will need severe probabilities in later outlooks,
    particularly for Day 4-6/Sat-Mon, and possibly the mid-Atlantic by
    Day 7/Tue. However, confidence in where this risk will develop each
    day is too low for 15 percent delineation at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 07:29:00 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 230728
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 230726

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Days 4-5/Sun-Mon -- Upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley...

    Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Upper Midwest
    to the Ohio Valley on Sunday and Monday as several shortwave
    impulses migrate through the area on the eastern periphery of a
    strong upper ridge over the Plains. A seasonally very moist airmass
    will reside across much of these areas, supporting strong
    destabilization each day. On Sunday, a corridor of severe
    thunderstorm potential appears possible across parts of MN/WI toward
    northern IA/IL as a weak shortwave impulse initially over the
    Dakotas spreads east. While details regarding storm coverage remain
    uncertain, sufficient deep layer shear and strong instability will
    be in place, and at least isolated storm clusters could pose a risk
    for damaging winds.

    By Monday, an upper shortwave trough will emanating from an upper
    low near Hudson Bay will dig southward across the Great Lakes. This
    will result in increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a
    surface low may move eastward across the Great Lakes near the
    international border while a stronger nocturnal low-level jet
    develops over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This
    stronger flow will overspread a moist and unstable airmass, and
    potential for thunderstorm clusters developing into an MCS appears
    possible.

    While details remain uncertain regarding convective evolution and
    coverage on Sunday and Monday, through broader synoptic pattern
    appears favorable for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. The 15
    percent severe areas may shift some in the coming days as details
    become more clear.

    ...Days 6-8/Tue-Thu...

    It is possible some severe potential could shift east/southeast on
    Tuesday toward the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic.
    Deep-layer northwesterly flow will not be as strong as prior days,
    but could still be sufficient for some organized severe risk.
    Confidence in where greater risk corridors may develop is low, and
    will largely be influenced by convective evolution in the Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday periods.

    A strong upper ridge will shift west across the western U.S. late in
    the period, bringing a broad area of generally weak deep-layer
    northwesterly flow to the eastern half of the CONUS. Some
    thunderstorm potential is likely within this typical summertime
    pattern across the Plain into the East, but severe potential is
    uncertain.

    ..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 08:40:02 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 240839
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 240837

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

    Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Monday...
    A prominent upper high will remain centered over the central and
    southern Plains with a belt of enhanced mid-level flow forecast
    along the periphery of that feature from the northern Plains into
    the Great Lakes. Within that flow regime, a short-wave trough is
    forecast to translate through the Great Lakes in tandem with a
    surface low and trailing cold front. A hot and moist boundary layer
    is expected ahead of the front, yielding moderate to strong
    instability by afternoon. Despite veered low-level winds,
    strengthening mid/upper-level winds in the exit region of a jet
    streak will contribute to sufficient vertical shear for organized
    severe storms across portions of the Great Lakes into the OH Valley
    Monday afternoon into night.


    ...Day 5/Tuesday...
    The Day 4/Monday short-wave trough is forecast to evolve into an
    upper low across southwest ON and the lower Great Lakes with an
    associated belt of stronger cyclonic flow developing from the OH
    Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic and NC. At the surface, an
    area of low pressure will develop from the lower Great Lakes into
    central NY with a trailing cold front advancing through the upper OH
    Valley, central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic.

    Thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning along and ahead of the
    front from the lower Great Lakes and upper OH Valley into the
    Mid-Atlantic. Stronger heating is anticipated to the south of the
    early-day storms from the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC, where
    moderate to potentially strong instability is forecast. The
    strongest instability will coincide with modestly strong deep-layer
    shear to support some severe weather threat in those areas Tuesday
    afternoon and evening.


    ...Days 6-8/Wednesday-Friday...
    The 00Z ensemble means depict a slight westward regression of the
    dominant mid/upper-level high with persistent troughing along the
    East Coast. On the periphery of the high, a notable short-wave
    trough is forecast to progress from the Canadian Rockies on
    Wednesday through the Prairie Provinces on Thursday with modest
    height falls along the international border. By Friday, there is
    some model signal for another short-wave trough to move into the
    upper MS Valley and Great Lakes regions. At the surface, a more
    substantial cold front is projected to move into the northern Plains
    on Thursday, and the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday.

    A few severe storms appear possible in the Southeast and northern
    Plains on Wednesday, the northern Plains on Thursday, and the upper
    Midwest into the Great Lakes on Friday. Confidence in the magnitude
    and areal extent of the threat is currently too low to delineate
    additional areas.

    ..Mead.. 07/24/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 08:47:16 2026
    ACUS48 KWNS 250847
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 250845

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0345 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

    Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

    ...DISCUSSION...
    ...Day 4/Tuesday...
    An upper low is forecast to develop from southwest ON into the
    northern Mid-Atlantic with an attending belt of 35-45 kt mid-level
    flow extending from the OH Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic.
    At the surface, a cyclone will remain vertically aligned with the
    upper low, while a trailing cold front advances through the upper OH
    and TN Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Gulf Coast
    states. A lee trough is expected to develop ahead of the cold front
    along the Piedmont Tuesday afternoon.

    Showers and thunderstorms (some potentially strong) are expected to
    be ongoing Tuesday morning from the upper OH Valley into the
    Mid-Atlantic, aided by forcing for ascent ahead of the upper low and
    low-level warm air and moisture advection along a 30-40 kt low-level
    jet. That activity is expected to linger into the afternoon from NY
    and PA into western New England, which will limit the potential for
    air mass destabilization in those areas. Stronger daytime heating
    appears possible south of the Mason-Dixon Line, where moderate
    instability is forecast across the pre-frontal warm sector.

    Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
    during the afternoon along the cold front and lee trough from the
    Delmarva into central Appalachians and VA/NC Piedmont. The moderate
    instability combined with 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support
    organized storm modes with the primary hazard being damaging wind
    gusts.

    Other more isolated severe storms appear possible over the central
    High Plains within a low-level upslope regime.


    ...Day 5/Wednesday...
    The Day 4/Tuesday upper low is forecast to slowly drift northeast
    with a belt of stronger mid-level winds overspreading New England. A
    surface low will remain vertically aligned with the mid-level system
    with convergence in the vicinity of that feature and a trailing
    front serving as the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development.
    The models suggest that southern to central parts of New England may
    become moderately unstable, which, combined with the slight shear
    enhancement, may support a few strong to severe storms.

    Additional strong to severe storms appear possible along a frontal
    zone in the Southeast, where a very moist air mass will contribute
    to moderate to strong instability.

    Uncertainty in the extent of the severe weather threat in both areas
    precludes the delineation of a 15% probability contour.


    ...Days 6-8/Thursday through Saturday...

    The 00Z ensemble means are in reasonably good agreement in depicting
    the retrogression of the upper high from the Southern Rockies into
    the lower CO Valley. A concurrent weakening and broadening of the
    eastern CONUS trough is also forecast. There is a model signal for a
    stronger mid-level system to move into BC and the Pacific Northwest
    by Day 8/Saturday. Deterministic guidance indicates a series of weak disturbances tracking from the northern Plains to along and east of
    the MS Valley during this time period with sporadic occurrences of
    severe weather possible. However, the large-scale pattern currently
    appears unsupportive of an organized severe weather episode.

    ..Mead.. 07/25/2026

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)