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  • DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 15 17:33:08 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 151732
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 151731

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

    Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
    WESTERN MONTANA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of western
    Montana, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening. Locally damaging
    winds may also occur across parts of northern New England.

    ...Parts of western/central MT...ID...northwest WY...eastern
    OR/WA...
    A seasonably strong mid/upper-level cyclone offshore of the Pacific
    Northwest is forecast to move toward Vancouver Island through the
    period. The glancing influence of this feature, combined with
    monsoonal moisture and diurnal heating across the higher terrain,
    will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by afternoon
    across parts of ID/MT and adjacent portions of eastern OR/WA.

    At this time, the greatest severe potential appears to be across
    parts of western MT, where moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of near/above
    1000 J/kg) and veering wind profiles (with 30+ kt of effective shear
    despite modest midlevel flow) will support development of organized
    multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells, with an attendant
    threat of hail and localized severe gusts. 15% hail probabilities
    have been added across the area to account for this potential.

    Instability is expected to be somewhat weaker across parts of ID and
    eastern OR/WA, but favorable deep-layer shear may result in
    development of isolated strong to severe storms. Some clustering may
    eventually result in pockets of locally increased severe-wind
    potential, especially where stronger pre-storm heating and
    steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs.

    ...Parts of northern New England...
    A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
    across northern New England Thursday afternoon. Vertically
    integrated smoke forecasts from the HRRR suggest that the densest
    smoke will largely remain south of Maine, which would allow for
    diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates.

    With limited low-level moisture, buoyancy will likely remain weak to
    negligible for much of the day. However, strongly forced low-topped
    convection may develop in association with the approaching shortwave
    trough and attendant cold front, and move southeastward through the
    afternoon. Strong flow (50+ kt at 700 mb) and steep low-level lapse
    rates will support potential for strong/damaging gusts, potentially
    augmented by convective downdrafts. 5% wind probabilities have been
    included to account for this potential.

    ...Mid-Atlantic vicinity...
    Similar to D1/Wednesday, storm potential is uncertain and
    potentially limited Thursday across parts of the Mid-Atlantic,
    despite a relatively favorable environment in the vicinity of a cold
    front. Weak large-scale ascent and the potential impact of smoke on
    diurnal heating/destabilization will likely limit storm coverage,
    with HREF calibrated thunder probabilities currently only 10-20%.
    Severe probabilities have been withheld due to uncertainty regarding
    storm development/coverage, but this area will continue to be
    monitored for any increasing signal of storm development within the conditionally favorable environment.

    ...Arizona...
    Scattered thunderstorms are again expected across parts of Arizona
    on Thursday. Some storms will likely be accompanied by strong gusts,
    though organized severe potential appears limited, with only very
    light midlevel flow currently indicated by most guidance. Trends
    will be monitored for any increase in potential for organized
    clustering.

    ...Southwest/south-central TX...
    Modestly enhanced low-level shear/SRH may persist into Thursday
    morning across southwest/south-central TX. However, most guidance
    suggests that convection will tend to weaken near/after 12Z. As a
    result, no tornado probabilities have been introduced, though a
    brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out near the beginning of the
    forecast period.

    ..Dean.. 07/15/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 06:07:44 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 160607
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 160605

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
    UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
    parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
    of the Upper Great Lakes region.

    ... Parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes ...

    A subtle mid-level vorticity maximum evident in the 16/00 UTC
    guidance is expected to move southeastward across northern Minnesota
    and the Upper Great Lakes on Friday morning, supporting ongoing
    thunderstorms across the Arrowhead of Minnesota. This activity
    should spread southeastward through the morning with at least a
    marginal severe hail/wind threat.

    During the day, a surface frontal zone draped from northern
    Illinois/Indiana should begin to lift northward, ahead of a surface
    cold front moving through the northern Plains. To the south of the
    warm front and ahead of the cold front, diurnal heating may be
    somewhat muted by smoke and residual cloud cover from morning
    convection. However, increasing low-level moisture should still
    support moderate destabilization by the afternoon, especially where
    stronger diurnal heating occurs. Moderate mid-level northwesterly
    flow will provide enough vertical shear to support organized storms.

    As the stronger mid-level wave approaches the region during the late
    afternoon and evening, some potential exists for surface-based
    thunderstorm redevelopment -- especially near the intersection of
    the cold front and effective warm front. Large hail and strong
    thunderstorm winds will be possible with these storms, and the
    low-level wind field would support at least some potential for a
    tornado with any sustained surface-based storm during the evening.
    With time this activity should evolve into one or more clusters of thunderstorms moving southeast overnight across the northern Great
    Lakes.


    ... Western Montana and Northern Idaho ...

    A relatively favorable thermodynamic environment will once again be
    in place across parts of western Montana and northern Idaho by
    Friday afternoon. Relatively steep low- and mid-level lapse rates,
    sufficient moisture, and diurnal heating should support afternoon
    SBCAPE values in the 1000-1500 J/kg range, as suggested by the
    20260716 00UTC HREF. Mid-/upper-level flow will be less than in
    previous days as the region becomes increasingly displaced from a mid-/upper-level trough/low moving northward into southwest Canada.
    That said, effective-layer shear on the order of 25-35 knots will be
    possible, especially where east/southeasterly surface winds are
    maintained.

    Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
    and evening hours. The strongest thunderstorm clusters will be
    capable of large hail. Strong to severe thunderstorm gusts will be
    possible as well, especially where convective outflows can
    consolidate amid the steep low-/mid-level lapse rates. Most 16/00
    UTC HREF members show explicit convective outflow gusts approaching
    60 mph, supporting a localized severe threat.

    If convective coverage appears greater than currently forecast,
    severe probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent
    outlooks.


    ... Ohio Valley ...

    Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop during
    the afternoon within a moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment. Localized downburst winds could occur within this
    environment, though deep-layer flow/shear appears too weak to
    support an organized severe threat. Additionally, 16/00 UTC guidance
    suggests early initiation across the region, which would limit the
    development of widespread steep low-level lapse rates, which may
    provide some limit on a more widespread, storm-scale driven wind
    threat. This region will continue to be evaluated in subsequent
    outlooks.

    ..Marsh.. 07/16/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 17:28:30 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 161728
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 161726

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

    Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
    WESTERN MT/NORTHERN ID...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
    NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong to potentially severe storms are possible on Friday across
    parts of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts
    of the northern Great Lakes region.

    ...Parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
    A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over central SK/AB is
    forecast to move southeastward toward the Upper Great Lakes by the
    end of the period. Multiple low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
    precede this shortwave within west-northwesterly flow aloft. A
    surface low is forecast to move east-southeastward through the day
    near Lake Superior, as a trailing cold front moves through the
    Dakotas and MN. A remnant surface front initially draped from
    northern IL/IN into central WI is forecast to move northeastward as
    an effective warm front.

    Details of convective evolution remain uncertain through the period
    across the region. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS may be
    ongoing at the start of the period near northeast MN and adjacent
    portions of Ontario, with other convection possible to the cool side
    of the effective warm front across WI. In the wake of morning
    convection, at least isolated diurnal storm development will be
    possible along the cold front, and also near its intersection with
    the effective warm front. Within the warm sector, moderate buoyancy
    and sufficient deep-layer shear will conditionally support a threat
    for organized cells/clusters, with a threat of hail and damaging
    winds. Any persistent supercell could also pose at least a brief
    tornado threat, especially in closer proximity to the surface low
    and warm front. One or more storm clusters may evolve Friday night
    and move east-southeastward across the northern Great Lakes region,
    potentially posing an isolated severe threat.

    No upgrade in probabilities has been at this time, due to
    uncertainties regarding recovery in the wake of morning convection
    across northern WI and Upper MI, and also regarding storm coverage
    along the cold front into eastern MN. However, Slight Risk (level 2
    of 5) equivalent probabilities may eventually be needed for some
    part of the region.

    ...Western MT/northern ID...
    A favorable thermodynamic profile is again expected across parts of
    western MT and vicinity on Friday, with steep lapse rates and MLCAPE potentially in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer flow may be
    somewhat weaker (compared to D1/Thursday) as a mid/upper-low moves
    well to the northwest, but backed surface winds and modest veering
    with height will still provide sufficient effective shear for
    occasional storm organization. Isolated hail and severe gusts could
    accompany the strongest storms. Some guidance suggests potential for outflow-driven storm clustering, which may result in a corridor of
    locally greater wind potential, though this scenario remains
    uncertain at this time.

    ...Parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast...
    A broad area of nebulous damaging-wind potential is expected to
    evolve from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southeast, mainly
    during the afternoon. Across the Ohio Valley vicinity, rich moisture
    and moderate buoyancy within a weakly capped environment will result
    in development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Deep-layer
    flow/shear will remain quite weak, which should limit storm
    organization.

    A similar thermodynamic environment will extend into parts of the
    Mid-South and Southeast. Weak northwesterly low/midlevel flow may
    allow for development of small southeastward moving clusters across
    parts of TN/MS/AL, though weak deep-layer shear should temper storm organization.

    Due to the disorganized nature of any damaging-wind threat, wind
    probabilities have been withheld, though addition of probabilities
    across parts of the region is possible, if trends support any
    mesoscale corridors of greater threat.

    ...Florida...
    Most CAM guidance suggests vigorous storm development just offshore
    of the FL Gulf Coast Friday morning, in association with a weak
    midlevel trough/low. The morning convection may tend to remain just
    offshore, but additional storm development is expected by afternoon
    across much of the peninsula. Weak deep-layer shear and uncertainty
    regarding mesoscale details precludes the introduction of wind
    probabilities, though localized strong to severe gusts cannot be
    ruled out.

    ..Dean.. 07/16/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 05:34:34 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 170534
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 170532

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
    VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley
    and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, mainly Saturday
    afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into late
    Saturday night.

    ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic...

    An upper shortwave trough over the Great Lakes is expected to
    amplify as it pivots east across the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast region on Saturday. As this occurs,
    deep-layer flow will increase, with guidance suggesting 850-500 mb
    flow in the 40-50 kt range will be common. At the surface, low
    pressure will deepen as it shifts east across Ontario and Quebec. A
    trailing cold front will develop south/southeast across the region
    during the late afternoon into nighttime hours. Ahead of the front,
    a quasi-warm front is expect to be oriented across the Mid-Atlantic
    and will lift northward through the day within a strong warm
    advection regime. Initially modest boundary layer moisture across
    PA, northward through the Hudson Valley will rapidly moisten ahead
    of the approaching cold front. A corridor of moderate to strong
    destabilization is expected from the Mid-MS and OH Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic.

    Convection may be ongoing across parts of PA/NY into the
    Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning within the strong warm advection
    regime. Some potential for an initial round of severe storms could
    accompany this activity, especially near the surface warm front.
    Additional thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon near a
    prefrontal trough and along higher terrain in VA/NC. Vertical shear
    will be somewhat less with southward extent, but scattered cells and
    clusters will develop east through early evening posing a risk for
    damaging wind gusts. Supercell wind profiles are apparent in
    forecast soundings and a tornado risk is also possible, especially
    near the surface warm front and prefrontal trough where 0-1 km SRH
    will be maximized.

    Substantial thunderstorm development is also expected within a
    second corridor near the surface cold front from southern Quebec
    into MI/IN/IL by midday. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s
    F will provide ample support for 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE from the Mid MS
    Valley toward western PA. Organized cells and line segments will
    pose a risk for damaging wind swaths across the region.

    Some uncertainty still exists due to effects from morning convection
    and possible impacts from persistent smoke across parts of the
    Mid-Atlantic. However, the overall pattern supports a broad area of
    severe potential, with several swaths of damaging winds and a few
    tornadoes expected.

    ...MT/ID...

    A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the area on
    the southern periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft as an
    shortwave upper trough shifts east across the Canadian Rockies.
    Ample midlevel moisture amid steep lapse rates will foster MLCAPE
    near 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings also indicate elongated/straight
    hodographs amid 35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Isolated organized
    cells will pose a risk for hail and strong wind gusts through early
    evening.

    ..Leitman.. 07/17/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 17 17:31:10 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 171730
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 171729

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

    Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
    THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Ohio Valley
    and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, mainly
    Saturday afternoon into the evening. Some threat may linger into
    late Saturday night.

    ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
    An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday from parts of the
    Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic, as
    scattered to widespread storms move through an increasingly
    favorable environment. A 45% wind area has been added, resulting in
    a categorical upgrade to Level-3/Enhanced Risk. The Enhanced Risk
    area is a combination of multiple regimes which may eventually
    overlap, with some areas potentially seeing multiple rounds of
    strong to severe storms.

    A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
    northern Great Lakes vicinity through the day, before approaching
    New England by evening. In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a
    deepening surface low is expected to move across southern Quebec
    toward northern Maine, as a trailing cold front moves through the
    Great Lakes and eventually parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast.
    A remnant surface front initially draped from southern NJ into
    western PA will lift northeastward as an effective warm front, in
    advance of the surface low and cold front.

    As strengthening deep-layer wind fields overspread increasingly rich
    moisture, a broad region from the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes
    into the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast will become
    supportive of organized convection and severe-thunderstorm
    potential. HRRR-based forecasts suggest that smoke will become less
    prominent from west to east by afternoon, which should allow for
    relatively strong diurnal heating and moderate destabilization in
    areas not affected by early-day convection. Effective shear of 35-45
    kt will support organized clusters and possibly occasional
    supercells from the Lower Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic
    and Northeast, while strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates
    will result in a favorable wind-damage environment within the
    somewhat weaker flow regime across the southern Mid-Atlantic and
    parts of the Carolinas.

    Elevated convection may be ongoing or else develop during the
    morning across parts of PA/NY, within a warm-advection regime
    associated with the returning warm front. Depending on the timing of
    this convection and downstream heating/destabilization, some
    intensification of ongoing convection may occur by early afternoon.
    Additional development may occur along the southwest flank of
    early-day convection and related outflow, which may intensify and
    move across the northern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. In
    addition to a wind-damage threat, some hail and tornado potential
    may also evolve with any supercell development, given the presence
    of favorable effective SRH.

    Farther north, a broken band of storms is expected to develop along
    the cold front and move across the Lower Great Lakes region,
    eventually reaching a larger part of OH/PA/NY by late afternoon or
    early evening. Additional storms may develop ahead of the frontal
    convection, depending on the extent of heating in the wake of
    early-day storms. Multiple wind-damage swaths may accompany this
    convection, along with some potential for isolated hail. Rich
    moisture and some enhancement to low-level SRH may also support a
    tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially
    near the effective warm frontal zone or any remnant outflow
    boundaries from morning convection.

    An initially separate regime of storm development and severe
    potential is expected to develop along/east of a surface trough
    across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic into NC. While deep-layer
    flow will tend to weaken with somewhat southward extent, strong
    heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates will provide a
    favorable thermodynamic environment for downbursts and damaging
    outflow winds.

    Depending on the extent of outflow from prefrontal storms, frontal
    convection may continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat
    through the evening as it spreads southeastward.

    ...Parts of ID/MT...
    A mid/upper-level low initially near Vancouver Island is forecast to
    move east-northeastward as a shortwave trough across southern BC/AB
    on Saturday. This shortwave will only have a glancing influence on
    parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies, but modestly enhanced
    midlevel southwesterlies will be maintained across the region
    through the day/evening. Widely scattered storm development is again
    expected during the afternoon, with MLCAPE increasing to near 1000
    J/kg and effective shear of 30+ kt supporting a threat of isolated
    hail and localized strong to severe gusts.

    ..Dean.. 07/17/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 05:07:46 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 180507
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 180505

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1205 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST
    VIRGINIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose
    a risk for damaging wind gusts across portions of the southern
    Appalachians to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia vicinity on
    Sunday. Strong to severe storms may also develop across parts of
    eastern Montana into North Dakota and Minnesota.

    ...Southern Appalachians to the Coastal Carolinas/Southern VA...

    An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will persist on Sunday. At the
    surface, a cold front will develop southward across VA toward the
    NC/VA border. Near and south of this front, a very moist airmass
    will be in place (70s F dewpoints), and strong heating will foster a
    corridor of moderate instability. Deep-layer flow will remain
    modest, with effective shear values typically only around 20-25 kt.
    However, steep low-level lapse rates and PW values near/above 2
    inches are present in forecast soundings. Storms that develop will
    pose a risk for wet microbursts, and a greater wind risk may evolve
    closer to the cold front where sufficient clustering occurs.

    ...Northern Plains into northern MN...

    A compact upper low/shortwave trough over Alberta will develop
    east/southeast on Sunday, emerging over the Canadian Prairies and
    northern Plains. As this occurs, a belt of strengthening
    west/northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region. A
    surface cold front will develop southeast across eastern/southern MT
    during the afternoon, and the Dakotas during the evening/overnight
    hours. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this feature will transport
    modest moisture northward into the area. Steep midlevel lapse rates
    will support 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 40+ kt effective shear
    magnitudes. Initial convection may be cellular, posing a risk for
    isolated large hail. Given steep low-level lapse rates, strong
    outflow winds also will be possible, and some potential for a bowing
    cluster of storms is possible if sufficient storm coverage occurs
    ahead of the cold front from southern/eastern MT into the Dakotas
    through evening. Overnight storms may persist eastward into northern
    MN, though severe potential is less certain across this area given
    stronger capping.

    ..Leitman.. 07/18/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 18 17:32:46 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 181732
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 181730

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

    Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
    VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may pose a risk for
    damaging wind gusts over the Carolinas and southeast Virginia, and
    over the Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe storms
    may also develop across parts of eastern Montana into North Dakota
    and Minnesota from late afternoon into the overnight period.

    ...VA/Carolinas into the TN Valley...
    An upper trough will lift out of the Northeast on Sunday, with a
    trailing cold front extending from southern VA westward toward the
    KY/TN border during the afternoon. Ahead of the front, low 70s F
    dewpoints and heating will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE despite
    warmer air aloft. Modest west to northwest flow aloft will persist,
    with 500 mb speeds around 20 kt near the VA/NC portion of the front.
    Farther west into TN and AL, winds will be weaker but more northerly
    at 10-15 kt.

    Storms are likely to develop along the length of the front by early
    afternoon, moving in a southeasterly direction. The most favorable
    combination of mean wind speeds and deep-layer shear will be from VA
    into NC, and corridors of damaging wind gusts may occur as various
    clusters form along the front.

    Farther west, the very moist and uncapped air mass should lead to southward-moving storm clusters developing from TN into northern GA
    and AL through the afternoon. At least isolated damaging gusts
    appear likely.

    ...Northern Plains...
    An upper ridge over the area will break down as a shortwave trough
    moves across MT and into the northern Plains late. Deep-layer shear
    will increase through the period with 40-50 kt. Storms should
    develop near the surface trough coincident with peak heating from ND
    into southeast MT, and forecast soundings show elongated hodographs
    and steep lapse rates favorable for a few supercells producing large
    hail and locally severe gusts. The severe risk will continue
    east/southeastward into SD and MN through the evening and overnight,
    as storm coverage increases with a southwesterly low-level jet and
    height falls. Damaging winds should be the main concern, though a
    large hail threat may persist if cellular modes should persist.

    ..Jewell.. 07/18/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 05:36:56 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 190536
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 190534

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1234 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
    SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA...NORTHERN IL...WI...AND THE UPPER
    PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
    Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging winds
    will be the most likely hazard, with isolated large hail as well.
    Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
    Carolinas.

    ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

    An upper shortwave trough initially over the northern Plains early
    Monday will strengthen as it progresses east/southeast over the
    Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. As this occurs, mid/upper
    west/northwesterly flow will intensify, with most guidance showing
    50-60 kt at 500 mb, and 850-700 mb potentially increasing to 40+ kt.
    At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it shifts east across
    Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will
    sweep east/southeast during the afternoon and evening, becoming
    positioned from northern Lower MI to northern MO by Tuesday morning.
    Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass characterized by 70s
    dewpoints will be in place. This moisture will modestly decrease
    east of Lake MI. Within the moist axis, strong to extreme
    instability is forecast (particularly from IA into WI).

    Some uncertainty remains concerning placement and extent of
    potential ongoing convection early Monday, and will depend on
    evolution of storms overnight in the Day 1/Sunday period, and the
    timing of a possible lead shortwave impulse. Morning convection
    could have implications for where corridors of greater severe
    potential will develop during the afternoon/evening. Nevertheless,
    the region will experience strong warm advection ahead of the cold
    front, and airmass recovery is likely.

    Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings. A
    favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment could support initial
    supercells capable of all severe hazards, and possibly significant
    severe. However, given the progressive nature of the upper trough
    and surface cold front, along with intensifying 850 mb flow by late afternoon/evening, upscale growth into one or more bowing MCSs
    appears possible. Significant damaging wind potential will increase
    with a transition to linear storm mode. The south and east extent of
    severe potential is also uncertain, but if a mature MCS develops
    during the evening, it seems reasonable the severe wind risk could
    persist into portions of Lower MI, northern IN and northwest OH
    overnight.

    ...North Carolina vicinity...

    Weak northwest flow aloft will persist across the Mid-Atlantic on
    Monday. Modest lee troughing across the Piedmont will allow a
    surface front to lift north across part of NC into VA, and spreading
    rich boundary layer moisture across the region. Strong heating will
    result in moderate destabilization and scattered thunderstorms will
    develop during the afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain modest,
    but sufficient clustering, high PW values, and steep low-level lapse
    rates will support isolated damaging wind potential.

    ..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sun Jul 19 17:35:00 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 191734
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 191733

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

    Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOW ACROSS
    WISCONSIN AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms are probable across portions of the Upper
    Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Monday. Swaths of damaging
    winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
    Isolated strong to damaging gusts may occur over parts of the
    Carolinas.

    ...From IA across WI and into Upper MI...
    A substantial shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the
    upper MS Valley and toward the Great Lakes, with a broad area of
    50-70 kt midlevel northwesterlies. Upper-level winds will be
    stronger, with over 100 kt at 300 mb from MN into WI. Cool
    temperatures aloft will also result in steep midlevel lapse rates
    over 7 C/km.

    A few early day storms may produce hail over eastern MN into western
    WI as elevated instability will be strong and effective shear over
    50 kt. This activity is expected to wane during the day, with new
    storms developing along the cold front as it pushes into western
    Upper MI, WI, and northern IA.

    Initial storms should primarily be supercells given such strong
    shear. A corridor of tornado risk is evident east of the instability
    axis from IA across WI and into Upper MI, and effective SRH may
    exceed 300 m2/s2. Surface winds may veer with time, but any
    rightward movement off the hodograph may lead to a large increase of
    effective SRH for some of the larger supercells.

    A conditional risk of a strong tornado also exists from far
    northeast IA across much of WI. Here, 0-3 km shear will be strong,
    with 50 kt winds at 700 mb. Several models indicate a VGP at or
    above 0.4.

    With time, some of the cells may bow southeastward with corridors of significant wind damage and hail possible.

    ...Southern VA into NC...
    Daytime heating, 70s F dewpoints and surface convergence near a weak
    low will aid storm formation from western into central NC after 20Z.
    MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, PWAT over 2.00", and westerly flow aloft near
    20 kt will lead to multicellular storm mode with locally damaging
    wind gusts.

    ..Jewell.. 07/19/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 05:41:38 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 200541
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 200539

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF SOUTHERN INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN/EASTERN
    OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
    PENNSYLVANIA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
    from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
    All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
    should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
    nighttime hours.

    ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...

    An upper trough will be oriented over the region on Tuesday, with
    several shortwave impulses migrating through the larger-scale
    system. At the surface, low pressure will move across southern
    Ontario into Quebec. A trailing cold front will move across much of
    the Midwest through the period, becoming positioned from western PA
    to TN and northern AR/OK by Wednesday morning. Ahead of the main
    surface front, surface prefrontal troughing is expected to develop
    across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Rich
    boundary-layer moisture will overspread much of the area, with
    dewpoints from the mid-60s to low 70s F commonplace. This will aid
    in development of moderate to strong instability.

    Deep-layer flow will be strong for this time of year, with 40-60 kt
    flow at 500 mb, and 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer. Forecast
    soundings indicate supercell wind profiles with favorably curved
    low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km across much of
    the region. Convective evolution remains a bit uncertain, but a mix
    of supercells and one or more bowing linear segments are expected
    across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Significant severe (2+
    inch hail, 65+ kt winds, etc) potential is unclear, and will largely
    depend on storm mode and mesoscale evolution of convection.
    Temperatures aloft are relatively warm, around -5 to -7 C at 500 mb,
    and this may inhibit sig hail potential. Meanwhile, 65+ kt gusts
    could occur if a well-organized bowing structure and stronger cold
    pool can develop. Given warm/moist low-levels and limited low-level
    lapse rates, confidence in this scenario is low. As a result, the
    CIG 1 area from the prior Day 3 outlook has been removed for now.
    Where supercells can be maintained, a risk for a few tornadoes also
    is possible.

    While details regarding storm mode and evolution remain somewhat
    uncertain, the overall environment will support a severe risk across
    a broad region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Swaths of damaging winds
    still appear to be the greatest risk, though all hazards are
    possible.

    ..Leitman.. 07/20/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 20 17:32:04 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 201731
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 201730

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

    Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
    from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
    All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
    should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
    nighttime hours.

    ...Synopsis...
    High amplitude ridging will build across the western US with
    continued progressive troughing across the east on Tuesday. Multiple
    short-wave impulses will rotate through the eastern US trough, with
    a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow traversing the Midwest into
    the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will shift south and
    east through the period, with a surface low across southern
    Ontario/Quebec. A pre-frontal surface trough will also be in place
    across western/central NY into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Widely
    scattered thunderstorm activity is expected through the period.

    ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
    Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase along the pre-frontal
    trough from western/central New York into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic
    late Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Though there may be
    potential for early morning cloud cover, it does appear that
    sufficient heating/moistening will occur for at least moderate
    instability to develop across the region through the afternoon.
    Mid-level flow will increase through the day along with forcing for
    ascent. It appears widely scattered thunderstorm activity with
    several clusters/embedded supercells will be ongoing by the
    afternoon. Highest confidence in transient embedded supercell modes
    would be closer to the surface low and near the front across western
    NY into eastern PA. Here, there may be potential for both damaging
    wind, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Guidance
    suggests the best signal for damaging wind will be across the
    Mid-Atlantic, where several damaging clusters could occur. As such,
    the Enhanced was expanded eastward into portions of the
    Mid-Atlantic.

    ...Ohio Valley...
    Evolution of overnight convection will play a large role in development/maintenance of thunderstorm activity across the Ohio
    Valley Tuesday. It appears that remnant convection will be ongoing
    at the start of the period near/just ahead of the surface front
    across northern Kentucky/southern Indiana/Ohio. This will likely
    re-intensify and continue to expand south and east during the
    morning as daytime heating begins. Strong daytime heating and moist
    profiles should support moderate to strong instability developing
    though the afternoon. Storm mode appears to be generally linear,
    with the greatest threat being for damaging wind given more linear forcing/initially boundary parallel shear along residual southward
    moving outflow. As such, the primary hazard will be damaging wind.

    Additional thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of the
    front through the afternoon with increasing forcing for ascent with
    approaching shortwaves. Strong deep layer shear may become more
    boundary perpendicular supporting a supercell or two as the front
    sags south, with potential for large hail and perhaps a tornado.
    Confidence in this scenario is on the lower end and the primary
    hazard is expected to be a secondary wave of damaging wind
    potential. Should storms be able to cluster and establish a more
    organized cold pool, potential for some corridor of significant wind
    may be possible. Overall, no significant wind areas were included
    given low confidence in exact morning storm evolution and concerns
    over generally poor lapse rates.

    ..Thornton.. 07/20/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 05:17:40 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 210517
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 210515

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
    gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
    thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
    which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

    ...Mid-Atlantic into New England...

    Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through large-scale
    upper troughing across the Northeast on Wednesday. Relatively strong
    deep-layer winds for mid/late July are forecast, characterized by
    500 mb southerly flow around 45-60 kt, 35-55 kt at 700 mb, and 25-35
    kt at 850 mb. At the surface, low pressure will lift northeast
    across Quebec, with a surface trough extending southward into the
    Mid-Atlantic. A cold front is forecast to be located from eastern NY
    to the central Appalachians and the TN Valley Wednesday morning. The
    northern extent of the front will be rather progressive as it moves
    across New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic through the
    afternoon and evening. The southern extent of the front will more
    slowly sag south/southeast across VA/NC. Ahead of the front,
    southerly low-level flow will maintain a seasonally moist airmass
    beneath the moderately strong deep-layer wind fields.

    While the boundary layer will be moist, strong heating will be
    limited due to cloud cover and poor lapse rates. This will limit
    instability, especially with northward extent into New England.
    Nevertheless, sufficient instability coupled with the stronger
    deep-layer flow will support organized clusters capable of wind
    damage. The greatest risk will be focused across the southern
    Mid-Atlantic where instability will be greatest (1000-1500 J/kg
    MLCAPE).

    ..Leitman.. 07/21/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Tue Jul 21 17:30:50 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 211730
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 211728

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

    Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
    SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for damaging wind
    gusts across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Additional
    thunderstorms are expected northward across New England, some of
    which could produce locally strong wind gusts.

    ...Synopsis...
    The pattern on D2/Wednesday will be characterized by upper-level
    ridging across western US with a more progressive wave pattern
    within a trough across the eastern US. A cold front will be located
    roughly from the Mid-Atlantic south into the Carolinas and western
    Tennessee. This will be the focus of thunderstorm development and
    severe potential Wednesday afternoon.

    ...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
    Morning cloud cover will extend across New England to the
    Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, which will likely temper heating and destabilization with northern extent into New England. More filtered
    heating through broken cloud cover in combination with moist
    southerly flow should yield moderate instability across portions of
    the southern Mid-Atlantic. This in combination with strong mid-level
    flow and resulting strong deep layer shear will support potential
    for a few organized storms/clusters capable of producing damaging
    winds and perhaps a tornado. Highest confidence in this potential
    will extend from the Carolinas to southern Delaware, where strongest
    heating is anticipated. Strong deep layer shear will extend
    northward into New England, which may support isolated stronger
    storms with potential for damaging wind though instability becomes
    less favorable further north.

    ...Eastern Colorado...
    High based thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high
    terrain in eastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. Marginally unstable
    and deeply mixed profiles may support a few instances of strong to
    severe wind. Overall, weak deep layer shear profiles will likely
    keep this threat too limited for probabilities to be included at
    this time.

    ..Thornton.. 07/21/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 05:22:46 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 220522
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 220520

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Thursday. However,
    locally gusty winds could occur with thunderstorms across the
    central High Plains.

    ...Discussion...

    In the mean, an amplified upper ridge will persist across he West,
    with the subtropical high over TX shifting west toward the Four
    Corners vicinity through the period. An upper shortwave trough
    embedded within the eastern periphery of the upper ridge will
    migrate southeast from the central Rockies to the Mid/Lower MO
    Valley through early Friday morning.

    Southerly low-level flow across the Plains will result in a belt of
    modest boundary-layer moisture across the central High Plains. Steep
    midlevel lapse rates will foster weak instability across parts of
    WY/CO into western KS. Scattered thunderstorms will develop during
    the afternoon and spread east/southeast across the central High
    Plains. A deeply mixed boundary layer will support isolated strong
    outflow gusts. However, weak vertical shear and limited instability
    will preclude severe probabilities at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 07/22/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Wed Jul 22 17:21:48 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 221721
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 221720

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

    Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
    OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind will be possible the
    central High Plains on Thursday.

    ...Synopsis...
    A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move through the flow across
    the central High Plains within the region between the amplified
    western ridge and eastern trough Thursday afternoon. At the surface,
    weak low pressure will develop across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles
    with a stationary front/boundary in place from eastern Colorado into
    the southern Plains. Thunderstorm development is likely across the
    Front Range in Colorado, with an increase in coverage spreading into
    the lower plains with the influence of the passing shortwave.

    ...Central High Plains...
    Southerly to southeasterly flow across the southern/central High
    Plains will bring moisture northward into portions of the
    Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and into western Kansas/eastern Colorado.
    This in combination with steep mid-level lapse rates and heating
    will yield a moderately unstable air mass from eastern Colorado into
    western Kansas by the afternoon. Initially, storms are expected to
    develop along the Front Range before moving into the lower plains
    and western Kansas by the evening. Shear profiles across Colorado
    will be fairly weak tempering severe potential. Nonetheless, deeply
    mixed profiles may support some strong to severe outflow gusts. As
    the shortwave shifts southward through the period, mid-level flow
    will increase across western Kansas with resulting modest deep layer
    shear increase. As storms/clusters move east through the late
    afternoon/evening an organized cluster or two will have the
    potential to produce damaging wind.

    ..Thornton.. 07/22/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 05:23:24 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 230523
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 230521

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across portions
    of the Dakotas into northern Minnesota.

    ...Dakotas into northern MN...

    Strengthening northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the region
    Friday afternoon into early Saturday in response to a shortwave
    upper trough moving across Manitoba/western Ontario and the northern
    Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will develop south/southeast
    across parts of north Dakota and northern MN.

    South/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the front will transport
    modest boundary layer moisture northward across parts of ND/SD and northern/central MN. This will occur on the eastern periphery of a
    strong upper ridge building over the Rockies/High Plains. As a
    result of upper ridging, warm temperatures in the 850-700 mb layer
    may result in at least weak capping over portions of the region.
    Nevertheless, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will support
    moderate destabilization (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE).

    Vertically veering wind profiles, also increasing in speed with
    height, will result in supercell wind profiles. Forecast soundings
    show a well-mixed boundary layer, with steep 0-3 km lapse rates.
    Organized cells are expected to develop by late afternoon near the
    surface boundary and spread east/southeast with time through the
    evening. A low-level jet is also forecast to increase during the evening/nighttime hours. The main risk with these storms will be
    from large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. If storms can
    become surface-based, a tornado or two also could occur. The
    strengthening low-level jet could maintain elevated convection into
    the nighttime hours across northern MN, but instability weakens an
    inhibition increases with south and east extent across the Upper MS
    Valley. This should keep severe potential relatively confined within
    a narrow corridor across portions of the Dakotas into northern MN.

    ...SC vicinity...

    Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon
    within a moderately unstable and very moist airmass. Vertically
    veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
    provide around 25 kt effective shear as a surface boundary sags
    south and east across the region. This may be sufficient for a
    couple of organized clusters capable of producing sporadic wind
    damage.

    ..Leitman.. 07/23/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 23 17:27:28 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 231727
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 231725

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
    NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
    wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into
    northern Minnesota.

    ...Synopsis...
    A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday,
    with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High
    Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move
    across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into
    the northern Plains.

    ...Dakotas/Northern Minnesota...
    Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across
    the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the
    central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears
    that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor
    over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to
    mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability
    developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some
    eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas.
    Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell
    development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be
    the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be
    able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to
    the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into
    increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase
    given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.

    Storms will continue to spread eastward through the
    afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing
    inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to
    elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.

    ...Carolinas...
    Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface
    boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically
    veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
    provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable
    air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.

    ..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 05:21:42 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 240521
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 240519

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1219 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
    NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
    into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

    ...Synopsis...
    A prominent mid-level ridge will remain anchored over central North
    America with the amplification of a downstream trough across the
    eastern CONUS. At the surface, ridging will be maintained over the
    Northeast with a weak front along the Southeast coastal areas. That
    boundary will extend northwest to low pressure over the northern and
    central Plains.


    ...Northern Rockies...
    Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short-wave trough
    cresting the ridge axis will combine with heating along the high
    terrain to foster widely scattered thunderstorm development Saturday
    afternoon. Area forecast soundings exhibit steep low/mid-level lapse
    rates, a deeply mixed boundary layer, and MLCAPE approaching 1000
    J/kg. Moreover, some enhancement of mid-level flow and resultant
    vertical shear is forecast, which may support some storm
    organization with the primary hazard being isolated severe wind
    gusts.


    ...South Dakota into the upper Midwest...
    Cyclogenesis is forecast over western SD along a weak front
    extending from central MT into MN/WI. The air mass along and south
    of the boundary in SD is expected to become quite hot with
    temperatures of 100-110. And while moisture will remain limited, the
    presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute
    to modest instability during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.
    Isolated storm development is expected by afternoon into early
    evening near and south of the front atop the hot, well-mixed
    boundary layer with latent cooling processes in the sub-cloud layer
    potentially leading to severe outflow winds.

    Farther east into MN and WI, a significantly more moist boundary
    layer is expected in the vicinity of the front, yielding a
    moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon. However,
    notable height rises are forecast with the expansion of the upper
    ridge into the region, leading to uncertainty in whether
    surface-based storms will develop due to the strengthening cap. On
    the condition that storms develop and become sustained, seasonably
    strong vertical shear will exist to support supercells with the
    primary hazard being large hail. Low hail and wind probabilities
    have been included in this forecast to acknowledge the conditional
    threat.

    Saturday night into early Sunday, there is some model signal for
    elevated storm development along the nocturnal low-level jet. In
    that scenario, sufficient instability and vertical shear are
    expected to exist to support some severe weather risk.


    ...Southeast Arizona...
    A slight enhancement of easterly mid-level flow is forecast across
    the region, atop a modestly unstable, but steep-lapse-rate
    environment. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
    over the Gila Mountains and adjacent high terrain by afternoon with
    a subsequent movement toward the lower desert floor. Some cold pool organization is possible in areas of storm clustering with an
    associated risk for locally severe wind gusts.

    ..Mead.. 07/24/2026

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Fri Jul 24 17:35:38 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 241735
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 241733

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

    Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM THE
    NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storms will be possible from the northern Rockies
    into the upper Midwest, and across portions of southeast Arizona.

    ...Synopsis...
    A belt of enhanced mid-level flow will move around the northern
    periphery of the high amplitude ridge across the central US
    D2/Saturday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions
    of the northern Rockies, with more northwesterly flow shifting
    across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes Region. At the
    surface, a weak front will extend from a surface low over the
    northern and central Plains to the Southeast coastal areas.

    ...Northern Rockies...
    Deeply mixed boundary layer conditions are expected across the
    Northern Rockies amid dry sub-cloud inverted-v soundings and steep
    low to mid level lapse rates. Scattered afternoon thunderstorm
    development is expected across the high terrain. Moderate
    instability is progged along with strong deep layer shear, which may
    support isolated stronger cells with potential for strong to severe
    wind gusts.

    ...South Dakota and the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes...
    Strong daytime heating is expected across the northern Plains into
    the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Daytime temperatures are
    progged to possibly exceed 100 F south of the weak front from the
    Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. With the building high amplitude
    ridge, warming around the 850-700 mb level will result in capping
    across much of the more strongly unstable air mass. It does appear
    that portions of northern/central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin
    and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan may see enough weakening of the
    cap to allow for isolated thunderstorm development by the afternoon.
    Forecast soundings suggest veering wind profiles favorable for
    supercells. Strong deep layer shear and linearly elongated profiles
    will support large to very large hail and damaging wind. Though
    low-level shear is more marginal, low tornado potential will exist.

    Additional isolated thunderstorms may develop near the Black Hills
    in South Dakota. Very hot and moderately unstable conditions are
    expected amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Isolated
    supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind will be possible,
    with potential for some clustering downstream and increase in
    damaging wind potential into the evening.

    ...Southeast Arizona...
    The favorable position of the surface high across the Four Corners
    will bring moist easterly flow across southeastern Arizona. Some
    enhancement of the easterly flow will allow for modest shear
    profiles. It is likely that storms will develop across the high
    terrain and move into the low deserts through the afternoon/evening.
    Deeply mixed profiles and modest shear for organization will support
    potential for strong to severe winds.

    ..Thornton.. 07/24/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 05:26:40 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 250526
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 250524

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
    MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly large hail and damaging winds
    are possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into
    portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

    ...Synopsis...

    A dominant upper high will remain anchored over the central and
    southern Plains with an associated ridge extending north into
    central Canada. Within the periphery of the ridge, a belt of
    enhanced mid-level flow will extend from the Pacific Northwest
    through south-central Canada into the Great Lakes and middle OH
    Valley. A series of weak mid-level disturbances will translate
    through the stream of higher-momentum flow, the most notable of
    which is a short-wave trough that will crest the ridge axis over
    SK/MB. Modest height falls are expected downstream from that feature
    from northern MN into the upper Great Lakes Sunday night/early
    Monday.

    At the surface, a cool front attending the SK/MB system will advance
    through the northern High Plains into the ND-MN Red River Valley. A
    weak front will settle south through northern parts of MN and WI
    before stalling, while a separate frontal system extends from the
    Southeast into the Midwest with another boundary.


    ...Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into the Mid Missouri
    and Ohio Valleys...
    Capping associated with the mid-level ridge and the subtle nature of
    mechanisms to sustain forcing for ascent lead to considerable
    uncertainty in the location, areal coverage, and intensity of
    thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. That being said, a few
    early-day thunderstorms appear possible across the upper Midwest
    within a zone of warm advection and aided by the glancing influence
    of a weak disturbance moving through the upper Great Lakes. The
    storms would likely be elevated within a plume of moderate
    instability and ample vertical shear, suggesting some potential for
    large hail and damaging winds.

    By afternoon, a reservoir of moderate to strong instability is
    forecast across the Midwest with the various models indicating the
    potential for diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development at various
    locations from the mid MO Valley into lower MI. Confidence in any
    one scenario remains low, and as such, a modest expansion of the
    level 1/Marginal Risk was made across parts of the OH Valley to
    account for the broad range of potential outcomes. Given the degree
    of instability and seasonably strong vertical shear, higher severe
    weather probabilities and related conditional intensity groups may
    become necessary once forecast details become more clear.

    As alluded to in the synopsis, stronger forcing for ascent tied to
    the approaching Canadian disturbance and surface front may support a
    more focused area of thunderstorm development over MN Sunday night.
    Subsequent upscale growth into a forward-propagating MCS appears
    possible, which would increase the potential for a swath of severe
    wind gusts.


    ...Southeast...
    One or multiple weak disturbances aloft are expected to overspread
    the region, along with a slight increase in mid/upper-level winds.
    In response, a weak surface low may develop across upstate SC, along
    a subtle front/confluence zone in the area. Thunderstorms are
    expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon
    along the front and developing sea-breeze boundaries within a very
    moist and moderately unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapses and
    high precipitable water content will enhance downdraft potential
    with an associated risk for locally damaging winds.

    ..Mead.. 07/25/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Sat Jul 25 17:21:30 2026
    ACUS02 KWNS 251721
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 251719

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

    Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
    MISSOURI VALLEY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
    GREAT LAKES...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
    possible from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes into
    portions of the mid Missouri Valley on Sunday and Sunday night.

    ...From eastern SD and NE to the Upper Great Lakes...
    The forecast continues to have major uncertainties regarding
    placement of the most likely severe storm corridors, with a wide
    range of model solutions. In general, the most likely threat areas
    include northern MN into WI and Upper MI, on the periphery of the
    upper ridge and where stronger winds aloft will exist coincident
    with strong instability, and from southeast SD into northeast NE
    within a super-heated surface trough.

    Beneath 40-50 kt midlevel northwesterlies, areas of strong
    instability will develop with relatively steep midlevel lapse rates
    and 70s F dewpoints, from parts of MN into WI. Models suggest
    various storm clusters are possible late in the day, and these would
    travel quickly southeastward with damaging wind and hail likely.
    Some severe activity could potentially push south of the Slight Risk
    area into more of northern IL, IN, and Lower MI. However, the
    instability gradient will be a limiting factor for eastward extent.

    Clusters of storms, possibly forming into a small MCS, are also
    expected where very hot temperatures develop into SD. The deeply
    mixed boundary layer combined with surface convergence within the
    low pressure trough will support afternoon development over eastern
    SD, with a corridor of damaging wind potential extending
    southeastward into eastern NE and western IA.

    ...SC and GA...
    Daytime heating of a high PWAT air mass will lead to moderate
    instability during the afternoon. A surface trough will deepen over
    the central Carolinas and into eastern GA, with an uncapped air mass
    and weak convergence yielding scattered storms. Shear will be weak,
    but modest northwest flow aloft should support corridors of damaging
    wind gusts as storms develop southeastward toward the coast.

    ..Jewell.. 07/25/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)