ACUS03 KWNS 211929
SWODY3
SPC AC 211928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the
primary threat.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS on Day
3/Sunday as multiple mid-level troughs progress across the
Northeast, the Plains states, and the Pacific Northwest,
respectively. At the surface, high pressure and static stability
will become established east of the MS River to the East Coast, and
over much of the Interior West, limiting thunderstorm potential over
these regions. However, the amplification of the central U.S.
mid-level trough will encourage surface lee troughing and subsequent
southerly moisture return across portions of the central and
southern Plains, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely. Strong flow aloft over TX will overspread a moist axis,
where adequate coinciding buoyancy and vertical wind shear will
support an isolated severe threat. Otherwise, a few lightning
flashes are possible along the Pacific Northwest coastline with the
passage of a mid-level trough and accompanying cooler temperatures
aloft.

...Portions of southwestern into central TX...
As the mid-level trough overspreads TX through the period, a
southerly low-level jet will develop, particularly after 00Z, when
850 mb southerly flow will exceed 35 kts. A relatively stable
boundary layer will remain in place Sunday through Sunday night.
However, atop this layer, seasonably rich moisture around 850 mb,
beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MUCAPE, which is adequate for supporting strong but elevated thunderstorms. From late afternoon into the overnight hours,
increased isentropic lift above the stable boundary layer, driven by
the approaching mid-level trough, will promote an increase in
thunderstorms through the evening over western and central TX. The
southerly 35 kt low-level jet, overspread by 50-70 kt mid-level
southwesterlies from the upper trough, will yield elongated
hodographs and up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This shear, and aforementioned MUCAPE, will support the potential for elevated
supercells late Sunday afternoon and overnight, with severe hail
possible.

..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220832
SWODY3
SPC AC 220830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated
Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the central
Plains to the southern Great Lakes on Monday. A secondary mid-level
trough will amplify as it moves through the northern Plains and into
the Upper Midwest. A more consolidated surface low will develop
across the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A warm front will
lift from near the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. A somewhat diffuse cold frontal zone will extend
from the Ozarks to the southern Plains.

...Eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture will advect northward across East Texas and
Louisiana on Monday. This will result in moderate instability ahead
of the frontal zone from East Texas into Louisiana. Extensive
cloudcover may be a limiting factor to greater destabilization, but
sufficient instability is expected for strong to severe storms
Monday afternoon/evening. A messier storm mode is expected near the
ArkLaTex, but a more favorable zone may exist south of this area
where supercell storm mode will be favored. Long hodographs with
largely streamwise low-level hodographs may result in some tornado
threat, in addition to the large hail threat. While the greatest
threat is expected during the late afternoon to early evening, some
threat will likely persist into the overnight period as a mostly
uncapped moderately unstable airmass is expected to persist amid
rich low-level moisture.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221913
SWODY3
SPC AC 221912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the central to southern High Plains will
move east, dampening Monday night in response to an upstream wave
digging from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.
While the leading surface low will remain weak, pronounced
upper-level diffluence and persistent low-level warm theta-e
advection will support extensive convection across the South-Central
States through the period.

...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...
A swath of elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from
central TX northeastward, likely north of a gradually advancing
surface warm front. This boundary should accelerate north-northeast
with diurnal heating, yielding expansion of surface-based
instability across much of east TX by afternoon. While
low-probability severe hail is possible early, primary severe
potential should await peak heating along/ahead of the trailing
early-day convective swath. Elongated hodographs, amid 500-mb
southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts, will favor regenerative
supercells. These should be semi-discrete with southwest extent and
embedded within an increasingly messy cluster mode northeastward.

Large hail and some tornado threat should tend to be favored across
east TX during the late afternoon and evening, before low-level
winds subside and become more veered Monday night from west to east.
Nocturnal tornado and some damaging wind potential may persist
across the Sabine Valley towards the Ark-La-Miss, where enlarged
low-level hodographs coincide with the northeast flank of the
surface-based instability plume.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230828
SWODY3
SPC AC 230827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Southeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday
with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the
Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the
period.

...Southeast...
Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate
destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer
shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by
mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm
development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL
during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be
that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe
weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late
evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front.

...South Texas...
The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across
South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this
front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may
be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will
likely be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231916
SWODY3
SPC AC 231915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP
SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Leading shortwave impulses over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will
further dampen, downstream of an amplifying shortwave trough over
the Upper Midwest. This latter feature will induce pronounced
surface cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes. Trailing cold front will sharpen/accelerate southeastward Tuesday night in the Southeast.

...Deep South...
A strong low-level jet over the OH to TN Valleys at 12Z Tuesday will
shift quickly northeast through the day. This will yield decreasing
speeds and more veered profiles by afternoon in the warm sector
ahead of the cold front. With convergence along the boundary likely
remaining weak through most of the day, large-scale ascent for a
greater than isolated severe threat appears nebulous.

A plume of moderate buoyancy should linger across LA/southern MS,
potentially extending into parts of AL by afternoon, and hold at
weak farther northeast. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for
some supercell potential, but the subsiding flow fields with respect
to the diurnal heating cycle casts uncertainty on how
sustained/productive storms may be. Instability will diminish after
sunset, but a marginal severe threat could linger near the AL/FL/GA
border area with nocturnal convection along the accelerating front.

..Grams.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240754
SWODY3
SPC AC 240753

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the East Coast from the
Northeast to Florida on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are
expected.

...Discussion...
A strong upper-level low will move from the Great Lakes to southern
Quebec on Wednesday. At the surface, a strong surface low will move
slowly east from Lake Superior to western Quebec. A cold front will
extend along the spine of the Appalachians Wednesday morning and
move into the western Atlantic by Wednesday evening.

Ahead of the cold front, weak instability is forecast from southeast
Georgia to eastern North Carolina. This may be sufficient for
isolated thunderstorms, but weak instability should limit the
overall intensity of these storms. Additional lightning flashes are
possible beneath the cold upper-level temperatures across the
Northeast.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241907
SWODY3
SPC AC 241906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
An amplified shortwave trough will further deepen as it swings
across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Associated
deep surface cyclone will track across the central Great Lakes to
the Ottawa Valley. Downstream frontal occlusion should arc to a
weaker low moving across New England, with the leading cold front
trailing southward and exiting much of the Atlantic Seaboard by
Wednesday night.

...East...
Surface-based thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the
aforementioned front is expected to remain sparse on Wednesday,
limiting unconditional severe probabilities. Instability should be
weak north of south GA/north FL, where strong deep-layer shear will
be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned front.

Rather low-topped convection may precede the most pronounced
mid-level DCVA in the western/upstate NY vicinity on Wednesday
afternoon. While it may be insufficient to produce lightning amid
flimsy buoyancy, it could be accompanied by strong gusts along a
secondary surface frontal surge with a strengthening pressure
gradient in its wake.

..Grams.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250744
SWODY3
SPC AC 250743

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A large, expansive mid-level ridge will be present across the
eastern CONUS on Thursday. Offshore flow will be present across the
entire eastern half of the CONUS as high pressure builds into the
Plains. This high pressure will expand a dry, continental polar
airmass which should keep any thunderstorm chances limited.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front across
Florida, but weak instability and modest lapse rates should keep any
severe storm threat limited.

Significant temperature differences between the Great Lakes and the
cold airmass aloft should result in some instability in the Great
Lakes. Deeper convection that can develop over the lakes with some
graupel could result in a few lightning flashes given an EL around
-20C. However, given the mostly below freezing temperature profile,
the likelihood of mixed-phase elements remains uncertain and a
general thunderstorm line has not been included at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251930
SWODY3
SPC AC 251929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will
further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a
weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic
flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending
northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong
low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves
offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US.

With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of
the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be
limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse
rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat.

Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern
Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind
the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold
thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase
precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to
deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands.

..Lyons.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260721
SWODY3
SPC AC 260720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another
upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this
occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically
stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River,
limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the
central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the
southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf.
With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal)
across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of
central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures
aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead
of the surface low.

...Central TX into far southwestern OK...
The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low
developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a
mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal
intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant
for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e.
40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward
advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm
development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX
to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and
an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the
amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast
soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of
effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing
buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261932
SWODY3
SPC AC 261931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward
and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over
the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west
deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states
deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western
KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern
Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.

...Central TX into southeastern OK...
As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly
winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the
western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern
OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool
in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings
show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the
apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough
moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the
northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from
central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western
Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy
is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow
aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the
potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across
TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a
sustained severe risk is low.

..Lyons.. 11/26/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270829
SWODY3
SPC AC 270828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or
evening.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains
toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the
central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return
will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold
front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur
within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear
in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe
storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine
River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front.

...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the
southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air
advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result
in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and
precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX.
Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can
exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep
southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough
should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low
and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern
Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and
instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree.

Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support
thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX
coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along
the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells
and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe
gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271931
SWODY3
SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon or
evening.

...Synopsis...
The shortwave trough over the central Plains will move eastward as
mid-level westerly flow intensifies from the Plains to the MS Valley
and Midwest Saturday/Sunday. A surface low attendant to the trough
will move from OK/KS to the southern Great Lakes as a strong cold
front moves south from the Red River to the lower MS Valley.
Moisture return ahead of the front will support scattered
thunderstorms across eastern TX, the Sabine Valley and lower MS
valley through early morning Sunday.

...Southeast TX to western LA...
With southerly surface flow expected to develop ahead of the
deepening surface cyclone over the Plains Saturday, low-level
moisture advection should increase across coastal and southeast TX
into LA. A warm front will slowly lift northward, stalling over
southwest LA as it encounters a deep and cool air mass farther
north. Continued low-level warm air advection (despite ongoing
showers and remnant clouds) should allow for gradual destabilization
Saturday afternoon. While overall forcing for ascent appears weak as
the upper trough departs to the north, scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable, both within the low-level warm
advection regime and along the approaching cold front from the
Northwest. Given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could support a
few stronger updrafts late Saturday through Sunday morning. Residual
westerly flow aloft may also favor some storm organization with
multicell lines or clusters and perhaps transient supercells capable
of damaging gusts and hail. This is most likely from the TX coastal
Plain to southwestern LA before the cold front moves offshore into
the Gulf.

..Lyons.. 11/27/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280819
SWODY3
SPC AC 280818

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central and southern
Rockies as a broader upper trough overspreads the northeast on
Sunday. As a surface low rapidly ejects toward the Northeast
Atlantic coastline, surface high pressure will overspread much of
the Interior West and most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Static
stability with the high pressure should limit thunderstorm
development over most areas. The best chance for any thunderstorm
development will be along the Gulf Coast ahead of a surface cold
front early Sunday. Before the front moves offshore, near 60 F
surface dewpoints along the coast will promote marginal buoyancy,
which will support thunderstorm development along the front given
low-level convergence.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281900
SWODY3
SPC AC 281859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast
through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough
will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the
southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft
will persist with nearly zonal flow.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT
into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and
OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of
the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate
Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.

Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is
expected to remain non-severe.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281911
SWODY3
SPC AC 281910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast
through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough
will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the
southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft
will persist with nearly zonal flow.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT
into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and
OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of
the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate
Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.

Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is
expected to remain non-severe.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290820
SWODY3
SPC AC 290819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into
early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S. while rapidly
tracking eastward, encouraging surface high pressure to overspread
most of the CONUS on Day 3/Monday. As such, thunderstorm development
will be limited over most locales given static stability. However,
through the period, the eastward progression of the aforementioned
mid-level trough will encourage surface low development along the
eastern Gulf Coast. Low-level warm air advection ahead of the
developing low will allow low-level moisture to move inland by up to
a couple hundred miles, fostering enough buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may first develop along the TX/LA
coastlines during the day, with thunderstorms then developing over
southern MS to the northern FL Peninsula late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. However, this buoyancy, which may be largely
elevated in nature, appears too scant to support organized severe
potential, with no severe probabilities introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291800
SWODY3
SPC AC 291800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into
early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...

An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to southern
Rockies will develop eastward to the Great Lakes and Lower MS Valley
on Monday. Strengthening midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of this
feature will overspread the Southeast. A prior cold frontal passage
into the Gulf on Day 2/Sunday and surface high pressure persisting
across the Midwest and eastern states will limit northward transport
of richer Gulf moisture, keeping any quality moisture very near the
coast. Nevertheless, increasing midlevel moisture and steepening
lapse rates aloft, and another approaching cold front could support
isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity once
again on Monday. Severe storms are not expected as destabilization
will remain meager.

..Leitman.. 11/29/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300829
SWODY3
SPC AC 300828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe
thunderstorms currently appears very low.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the eastern U.S. as another
upper trough develops across the Interior West on Day 3/ Tuesday. A
surface low, positioned across the southeast U.S., is poised to
quickly deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic through the Day 3
period. Strong warm-air advection along the eastern Seaboard will
promote a continuous flux of moisture and associated buoyancy ahead
of the upper trough. A broad rain shield with embedded thunderstorms
will be ongoing across the Southeast on Tuesday morning, and this
band will progress eastward to the Atlantic Coast through the day.

Some guidance hints at a brief overlap of surface based instability
and strong vertical wind shear from a departing low-level jet across south-central/southeastern GA and immediate surrounding areas. If
such a high shear/low CAPE corridor can develop, and a stronger
thunderstorm tracks through this corridor, large, curved hodographs
may support strong low-level rotation. Nonetheless, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the delineation of severe probabilities
at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301922
SWODY3
SPC AC 301921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe
thunderstorms currently appears limited.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to intensify along the Atlantic coast
through the day Tuesday as a broad upper-level wave moves into the
eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear probable
across parts of the Southeast and portions of the southern
Mid-Atlantic as strong synoptic-scale ascent overspreads a
marginally buoyant air mass.

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Georgia...
An initially weak surface low should be developing across the FL
Panhandle by around 12 UTC Tuesday morning with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a strengthening warm
advection regime. While elevated thunderstorms will likely develop
across the broader region, a narrow surface-based warm sector may
materialize from the FL Panhandle eastward into northern FL/Southern
GA through 18 UTC. Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests SBCAPE
values may increase to 250-500 J/kg before an advancing cold front
shunts any surface-based buoyancy offshore by early/mid-afternoon.
More bullish solutions suggest that convection may be sufficiently
deep to realize the strongly sheared environment that should
manifest as the cyclone intensifies. However, the general model
consensus is that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too weak to
support robust updraft development, limiting confidence in the
potential for an appreciable severe threat. Even the typically
aggressive RRFS depicts only a weak/transient updraft/UH signal
across this region, suggesting that the overall severe threat is
limited. While risk probabilities are withheld, thermodynamic trends
will continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic
environment.

..Moore.. 11/30/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010825
SWODY3
SPC AC 010824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The chance for severe
thunderstorms currently appears very low.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will gradually deepen over the central and
eastern CONUS through the day Wednesday, resulting in widespread
surface high pressure overspreading most of the CONUS. Static
stability accompanying this widespread surface high pressure should
limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The one exception
will be portions of southeast TX into LA, where low-level lee
troughing ahead of the upper trough will support the development of
a southwesterly low-level jet. Warm-air advection will support both
elevated buoyancy and ascent for thunderstorm development through
the day Wednesday into early Thursday morning. If a more appreciable surface-based airmass can advect inland, a couple of severe storms
cannot be ruled out. However, the confidence in this scenario is
currently too low for the introduction of severe probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011919
SWODY3
SPC AC 011918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Progressive mid-level flow will amplify and persist over the US
Wednesday as broad troughing intensifies over the East. Weak ridging
over the central US will be enhanced by an upstream trough over the
Rockies and Great Basin moving toward the Plains into early
Thursday. At the surface, a cold and dry air mass is expected over
much of the country in the wake of a prior frontal passage. This
front will continue south over much of the Gulf and off the coast of
the Atlantic, as a second arctic front moves south over the central
US.

The only exception to widespread offshore flow will be across
portions of the western Gulf where the front will stall near the
TX/LA Coasts. Ahead of the second upper trough, warm-air advection
will support some southerly flow along the coast as a weak surface
wave develops over the Gulf. Weak elevated buoyancy and ascent will
support thunderstorm development across portions of southeast TX and
southern LA Wednesday afternoon/evening into early Thursday morning.
A stronger elevated storm or two with small hail is possible early
Thursday, but given the limited buoyancy, a sustained severe risk
appears unlikely.

..Lyons.. 12/01/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020820
SWODY3
SPC AC 020819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected along the Gulf Coast on Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated.

...Synopsis...
Broad, low-amplitude mid-level troughing, with embedded
perturbations, will continue to aid in reinforcing surface high
pressure across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
development. One impulse progressing across the central into eastern
U.S. will encourage weak surface low development just off of the TX
Gulf Coast at the start of the period. Current guidance suggests
that the surface low, and associated warm front, should remain
offshore, tempering the severe threat. However, at least elevated
thunderstorms are possible as marginal elevated buoyancy advects
inland along the Gulf Coast with the passage of the low.

..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021903
SWODY3
SPC AC 021902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity.
Severe potential appears low at this time.

...Western and Center Gulf Coast vicinity...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Thursday.
Strong surface high pressure will be in place over the Rockies/Great
Basin, as well as across the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will
be draped along/just offshore the TX coast, while a warm front
extends eastward near the LA coast, then southeast across the
eastern Gulf.

As an upper shortwave trough moves across the Plains, a weak coastal
low will develop along the Upper TX Coast/LA coast late in the
period. This may allow richer Gulf moisture to move into far
southeast LA and coastal MS/AL in the 09-12z time period. Midlevel
warm advection and increasing ascent atop a cool boundary layer will
support elevated thunderstorm activity along portions of the
western/central Gulf coast through the period. While some
surface-based instability could move inland very late in the period,
this is uncertain and may remain over immediate coastal areas of
southeast LA. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain
limited given Gulf moisture will mostly remain offshore through the
period, though trends will be monitored for some increasing
potential late in the Day 3 (early Friday morning) time frame.

..Leitman.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030747
SWODY3
SPC AC 030746

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida
Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears
very low.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will persist across the central and eastern
CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the
eastern U.S. as a surface low develops over the northern High Plains
on Friday. Relatively cold and/or dry, statically stable air will be
present over most portions of the CONUS, which will limit
thunderstorm potential. A surface low along the eastern Gulf coast
will traverse the northern FL peninsula during the day. Low-level
moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low along the
Gulf Coast, where primarily elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE) will support a few thunderstorms through the period.
Given the meager and primarily elevated nature of the buoyancy, the
chances for severe storms appears too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031858
SWODY3
SPC AC 031857

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Friday or Friday night.

...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Friday along the western and central Gulf Coast, within a broad
swath of low-level isentropic ascent atop a slow-moving offshore
surface front. This will spread east during the day across parts of
the Southeast. Some of the non-CAM guidance suggest the front may
penetrate inland in a portion of the FL Panhandle attendant to a
decaying weak surface low. With the synoptic pattern favoring a broad/low-amplitude trough into the south-central states,
large-scale ascent and mid-level lapse rates should remain weak,
compounding uncertainty in how much surface-based destabilization
can occur with any afternoon convection. The bulk of ML guidance
outside of the SPC-CSU indicates less than 5 percent severe probs as
well. As such, will defer to later outlooks for a potential
mesoscale level 1-MRGL risk.

..Grams.. 12/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040813
SWODY3
SPC AC 040812

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not currently in the forecast.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and impinge on the
Midwest on Saturday, prompting a surface low over the central High
Plains to translate southeastward toward the Gulf while weakening.
The approach of the weakening low will spur some low-level warm-air
advection and return flow along the Gulf shoreline. Buoyancy driven
by this moisture however, is forecast to be scant, so mainly
isolated thunderstorms are forecast, with severe thunderstorms
currently not a concern.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041912
SWODY3
SPC AC 041911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast on
Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Diffuse mid-level troughing over the eastern US is again expected
Saturday as a secondary shortwave trough moves out of the Rockies
and over the Plains. Ahead of the western trough, a lee low will
deepen over parts of the central Plains, north of a stalled front
along the Gulf Coast. High pressure over the southeastern US will
weaken as a cool polar air mass slowly modifies.

As the surface low moves south toward the Gulf Coast late Saturday,
weak inland moisture advection is expected over parts of coastal
southeast TX and southern LA into early Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible given the ascent and weak buoyancy that
develops. However, most if not all of the convection should remain
offshore. Thus, while some elevated storms are possible inland, the
severe risk appears low.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050745
SWODY3
SPC AC 050744

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the
British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained
across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream
flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one broad
embedded cyclonic circulation may redevelop southeast of the
Hudson/James Bay vicinity through central Quebec, while a
consolidating perturbation within another stream digs across the central/southern Great Plains toward the Southeast.

The latter feature is forecast to be accompanied by a reinforcing
cold intrusion across the Gulf coast into northwest Gulf Basin by
late Sunday night. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop
along the initially stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the
Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm layers aloft will
continue to hinder potential for deep convective development over
the interior central and southern peninsula Sunday through Sunday
night. In general, guidance suggests that better coupling of
mid/upper forcing for ascent and higher boundary-layer moisture
content may be confined to areas along/ahead of the front across the northeastern into central Gulf Basin and offshore western Atlantic.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051905
SWODY3
SPC AC 051904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Within a broad, large-scale trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave is forecast to move
from the southern Great Plains into the Southeast on Sunday. In
response to this system, some low-level moisture return is possible
into parts of the upper TX coast and southern LA, in advance of an
approaching cold front. However, persistent surface ridging will
tend to keep the richer Gulf moisture mostly suppressed offshore.

Early-day elevated convection will be possible across parts of the
Gulf Coast, to the north of the primary baroclinic zone. Convective
showers may develop later in the day across parts of LA and southern
MS along/ahead of the approaching cold front, though forecast
soundings currently suggest that this convection may not be
sufficiently deep for lightning production.

Farther east, thermodynamic profiles may become at least marginally
supportive of thunderstorm development across parts of the FL
Peninsula and Keys. Isolated diurnal storm development cannot be
ruled out near any sea breeze boundaries and a remnant baroclinic
zone across the peninsula, though large-scale forcing will be
limited. Late in the period, thunderstorms over the Gulf may
approach parts of the FL Panhandle and Keys. While some increase in
deep-layer shear is possible with time, generally weak lapse rates
and modest buoyancy are currently expected to limit the
organized-severe threat.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060748
SWODY3
SPC AC 060747

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that the center of a prominent mid-level vortex emerging
from the Hudson Bay vicinity during the next day or two will
continue redeveloping east-southeastward into and across the
Newfoundland and Labrador vicinity through this period. To the
southwest and south of this feature, broad mid-level troughing is
forecast to be maintained east of the Rockies through the western
Atlantic, as far south as the northern and central Gulf Basin,
downstream of persistent broad ridging across the eastern
mid-latitude Pacific through Pacific Coast and Intermountain West.

Models indicate some amplification of the mid-level troughing across
the northwestern Gulf coast and Gulf Basin, and perhaps some
downstream suppression of subtropical ridging across the Caribbean
and Bahamas, as a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
contributes to the southward advancement of the primary cold front
through much of the remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
Basin.

At the same time, it appears that a short wave impulse progressing
through the crest of the larger-scale ridge will contribute to
fairly significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Florida...
It appears that weak forcing for ascent and instability will tend to
limit the risk for thunderstorm development along/ahead the
southward advancing front, but NAM forecast soundings suggest at
least some potential for thunderstorm development near southeast
coastal areas Monday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061834
SWODY3
SPC AC 061833

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across South Florida on Monday.
Severe storms are not expected.

...South Florida...

Broad upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. on
Monday, through deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will weaken as an
embedded jet streak moves off the East Coast. At the surface, a cold
front will extend across central FL Monday morning, and develop
southward through afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
be ongoing early in the day and persist southward ahead of the
front. Poor lapse rates/weak instability and generally modest
surface to 700 mb westerly flow will preclude severe thunderstorm
potential.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070716
SWODY3
SPC AC 070714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate little substantive change to the
large-scale mid/upper flow impacting the U.S. through this period.
Broad ridging is likely to persist across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific into the U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies, with
downstream troughing east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
Seaboard and western Atlantic. The troughing is likely to be
reinforced by another significant short wave perturbation, digging
within northwesterly flow to the lee of the crest of the ridge.

It appears that this will be accompanied by a rapidly migrating
cyclone across the northern Great Plains through much of the upper
Great Lakes region by late tonight. In the wake of this feature,
models indicate an increasingly significant intrusion of cold air
will begin to surge southward into parts of the northern Great
Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, preceded by strengthening flow
veering to an increasing westerly component as far south as the Gulf
coast vicinity.

Even as the Gulf boundary layer begins to modify to the north of a
stalling and weakening front, south of the Florida Peninsula through
the southern Gulf Basin, appreciable inland moisture is unlikely
through this period and beyond.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

$$

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