ACUS02 KWNS 211728
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast tomorrow (Saturday), though severe
thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will
progress across the eastern U.S. as upper ridging builds over the
Plains, and an upper low overspreads the Southwest tomorrow
(Saturday). With the evolution of this upper pattern, surface high
pressure and accompanying cooler, stable air will overspread most of
the central and northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential.
From southeast TX to the coastal Carolinas, widely scattered
thunderstorm development is possible ahead of a surface cold front,
which will be ushered southeast by the aforementioned mid-level
trough, toward a seasonably moist low-level airmass. Thunderstorms
will also be possible across portions of the Desert Southwest into
western TX, beneath the progression of the upper low, which may
evolve into an upper wave through Saturday. Cooler temperatures
aloft will promote buoyancy (albeit scant) for thunderstorm
development.

...Southeast VA into central and eastern NC...
In roughly the 18-00Z period, isolated to widespread scattered
thunderstorm development is possible ahead of the cold front, aided
further by upper support with an overspreading embedded mid-level
impulse. Overlapping 60-70 kt 500 mb westerly flow atop 25+ kt west-southwesterly 850 mb winds will yield elongated, straight
hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Through the day,
diurnal heating will support upper 60s/mid 70s F surface
temperatures amid 60+ F dewpoints. These low-level thermodynamic
conditions should yield around 500 J/kg MLCAPE via tall/thin
buoyancy profiles given modest tropospheric lapse rates. While gusty
conditions and perhaps some hail may accompany the stronger storms,
organized severe wind/hail seems unlikely, with severe probabilities
withheld for now.

...Southern and central AZ into southwestern NM...
A nearly vertically stacked upper low (from roughly 850 mb on up)
will overspread AZ and NM through the period. A belt of stronger,
mostly unidirectional flow in the 850-500 mb layer will pivot around
the low and overspread portions of southern into central AZ and
southwestern NM in the 00-12Z time frame. This flow, resulting in
elongated hodographs (and 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear) will
coincide with 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, supporting
multicells capable of at least small hail. Since these favorable
conditions will be overspreading an overnight (potentially stable)
boundary layer, MUCAPE should be thin, and only reach a few hundred
J/kg. As such, the current thinking is that buoyancy may be too
limited to support severe probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220638
SWODY2
SPC AC 220636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the
primary threat.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Southwest to the central
Plains on Sunday. Lee troughing is forecast along the High Plains
during the day Sunday with a weak cyclone likely to develop near the
Oklahoma Panhandle by 12Z Monday. A warm front will only slowly
advance north across Texas during the day, but will advance north
more aggressively after 00Z.

...West Texas into north-central Texas...
As the mid-level trough advances east on Sunday, a low-level jet
will strengthen across Texas. This will lead to increasing
isentropic ascent and thunderstorm coverage during the day. Moderate instability, paired with moderate shear and steepening mid-level
lapse rates may result in an environment which supports isolated
large hail from a few elevated supercells. However, stronger storm
coverage may be somewhat limited during the day.
Greater coverage is anticipated Sunday night as stronger height
falls overspread the southern Plains. Isolated large hail will be
the primary threat, but a few damaging wind gusts may be possible if
storms grow upscale and move into the surface-based warm sector late
in the period as it starts to move northward more quickly.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221703
SWODY2
SPC AC 221701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TX
TRANS-PECOS TO NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail is possible from Sunday late afternoon into
Sunday night across parts of west to north-central Texas.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress from the Southwest
into the central/southern High Plains through early Monday. This
will induce a weak surface wave over eastern CO, displaced well
north of a front that is currently along the Upper TX Coast to south
TX. This boundary should remain quasi-stationary into Sunday
afternoon before gradually advancing north on Sunday night over
south-central TX.

...TX Trans-Pecos to north TX...
A confined plume of surface-based destabilization should develop
into the TX Trans-Pecos by late afternoon, with otherwise elevated
buoyancy across western to central TX. Severe potential should
commence towards late afternoon with initial cells that may be
sustained along the eastern periphery of the surface-based
instability corridor before becoming elevated downstream. Within a
persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime, regenerative
elevated convection is expected through Monday morning. Mid-level
lapse rates appear modest, but adequate low-level moisture should be
present amid strong effective bulk shear to pose an isolated severe
hail risk. A few supercells might occur early, with a predominately
messy cluster mode by Sunday night. This setup could warrant a
mesoscale corridor of greater hail probabilities in the Permian
Basin vicinity, with lower confidence in the overnight extent of
severe potential towards central and north TX.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230654
SWODY2
SPC AC 230652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern
states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the
Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will
dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across
the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast
Monday morning will lift north through the day.

...East Texas to southern Arkansas...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of
a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but
a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The
warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to
moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode
is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some
marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should
begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector
and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.
This should result in scattered supercell development within the
open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet
(40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this
same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late
afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)
could occur.

A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late
evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to
maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231728
SWODY2
SPC AC 231727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from Monday
mid-afternoon into Monday night across east Texas into the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
Multiple shortwave impulses embedded within a positive-tilt trough
over the central to southern High Plains will move east-northeast
towards the Lower OH and TN Valleys through early Tuesday. These
impulses will dampen Monday night downstream of a shortwave trough
digging from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains.
Weak surface cyclone near the KS/OK border may decay as it tracks
into the Ozarks. A warm front will advance north from south-central
TX and the central Gulf Coast.

...Central TX to MS...
Primary change this outlook has been to shift/expand severe
probabilities east/south based on latest guidance trends. Confidence
remains too low for highlighting a mesoscale corridor of strong
tornado potential with a level 3-ENH risk.

Elevated storms will be ongoing at 12Z Monday from parts of central
TX to western AR. Marginally severe hail is possible with these
storms through midday. Downstream of these storms, the surface warm
front will accelerate northward across east TX. Amid rich
boundary-layer moisture south of the front, a plume of moderate
buoyancy will become pervasive from south into most of east TX.

Primary severe potential should commence around mid-afternoon amid
weak mid-level height falls and minimal inhibition. Activity should intensify/increase along the outflow from early-day convection and
in confluence bands immediately downstream. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer shear will support supercell structures, but convective
mode will likely remain quite messy along the progressive outflow
that nearly parallels the shear vector. The more semi-discrete cells
just ahead and trailing southward will have the best potential to
produce large hail. The tornado threat will be influenced by the
degree of discrete convection that forms eastward in the warm sector
through early evening where low-level hodograph curvature remains
large. Nocturnal tornado and some wind threat will persist into the
late evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture is
maintained across the Sabine Valley and expands east through MS.

..Grams.. 11/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240656
SWODY2
SPC AC 240654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South into the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough across the Tennessee Valley will
dampen through the period as it advances into the western Atlantic
after 00Z. A trough across the northern Plains will amplify through
the period as it advances into the Upper Midwest and develops a
closed upper low. A surface low will develop near Wisconsin/Lake
Michigan and deepen through the day and into Tuesday night. As it
deepens, a surface cold front will sharpen and accelerate east from
the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Deep South...
A strong low-level jet will extend from northern MS/AL to southern
Ohio Tuesday morning and will quickly move northeast through the
day. This will result in weaker, more veered flow across the warm
sector during the afternoon. Rising heights in the wake of the
morning mid-level shortwave trough and weak convergence along the
front may mitigate severe storm potential during much of the day,
despite weak to moderate instability and moderate shear across much
of the uncapped warm sector. However, scattered storms, some which
could be strong, are expected along and ahead of the frontal zone
during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat, but some isolated large hail may also occur
across portions of MS/AL where greater instability is forecast.

Overall, stronger forcing amid falling heights aloft and greater
convergence along the cold front, is anticipated Tuesday night.
However, weaker instability should mitigate the overall severe
weather threat. A few stronger storms are possible after 06Z across
the FL Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia where
upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf should be sufficient for moderate
instability, even during the early morning hours. However, even if a
few supercells can form during this period, severe potential may be
somewhat limited given only modest mid-level lapse rates and weak
low-level flow.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF AL AND
EASTERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are likely across parts of the Southeast/Deep
South, mainly from Tuesday morning into early evening. A couple
tornadoes are possible in parts of eastern Mississippi and Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A leading shortwave impulse over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will
dampen as it moves quickly northeast, downstream of an amplifying
shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis will
occur over the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes, aiding in sharpening/acceleration of a trailing cold front on Tuesday night in
the Southeast.

...Deep South...
A high shear-low CAPE environment should be present across
southern/central MS into western AL, where remnants of early-morning
supercells may yield a lingering tornado threat beyond 12Z.
Convection should generally weaken into midday, in the wake of the
leading shortwave impulse departing the TN Valley. Diurnal
destabilization should occur following early-day convection, ahead
of the initially slow-moving cold front. With upper 60s surface dew
points nosing north from the central Gulf Coast, even modest
diabatic heating will sustain moderate buoyancy.

Guidance is consistent with suggesting scattered convection
along/ahead of the outflow-modulated cold front during the
afternoon, despite otherwise nebulous large-scale ascent. Deep-layer
wind fields are expected to be subsiding from strong values early,
but likely remaining adequate for semi-discrete supercell
structures. Modest mid-level lapse rates and expected mode may
curtail greater than isolated severe hail/damaging wind threats.
Tornado potential will be dependent on timing of afternoon
convective development and the degree of low-level hodograph
curvature reduction. But there is sufficient signal to warrant a
corridor of level 2-SLGT for the risk of a couple tornadoes from
lingering storms in the mid-morning and afternoon to early evening redevelopment. Overall severe threat should become marginal by late evening/overnight, but may persist on a very isolated basis
east/southward in GA to the FL Panhandle.

..Grams.. 11/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250656
SWODY2
SPC AC 250655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet streak will move along the
southern extent of this trough from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast. A surface low will move from Lake Superior to western
Quebec during the forecast period. An occluded front will extend
east from this surface low to a cold front which will start the day
near the Appalachians and move mostly into the western Atlantic by
00Z.

Some surface heating is forecast ahead of the cold front from
southeast Georgia to the Carolinas Wednesday morning and early
afternoon. While this will lead to some weak destabilization,
relatively warm 850-700mb temperatures should limit the overall
threat despite strong shear and long hodographs across the region.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251730
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Southeast...
A shortwave trough over the southeastern US will move eastward
quickly as a second, more intense perturbation, deepens and expands
from the southern Great Lakes into the upper Ohio Valley. As the
secondary shortwave intensifies, broad and strong southwesterly flow
aloft will envelop much of the eastern US, as ridging builds over
the West. While the upper-level system matures, a surface low should
also deepen, moving from the western Great Lakes into southern
Canada by 00z Thursday. A cold front associated with the low will
sweep east/southeastward across the Southeast before moving offshore
early Thursday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing ahead of
the front early Wednesday associated with the prior day's convective
cycle. The impact of these storms on the increasingly narrow warm
sector is uncertain, but may tend to limit destabilization in their
wake. Some heating of a remnant moist (60s F dewpoints) air mass
could support weak buoyancy and redevelopment of a few thunderstorms
in the afternoon, mostly likely from southern GA and southwestern SC
into northern FL. However, weak buoyancy and poor mid-level lapse
rates south of the primary ascent tied to the upper trough should
limit the severe threat. The cold front will then move offshore
Wednesday evening into early Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier
conditions.

...Eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast/mid Atlantic Coasts...
Closer to the cold core of the upper trough, isolated low-topped
convection is possible along the cold front Wednesday afternoon.
However, surface moisture and resulting buoyancy will be quite
limited. This suggests only sporadic potential for lightning. Still,
strong flow aloft (1-3km AGL 40-50 kt) could support a stray
convectively augmented wind gust near the coast and in the lee of
lakes Erie/Ontario, where weak elevated buoyancy will be present.

..Lyons.. 11/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260533
SWODY2
SPC AC 260531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS,
ushering in surface high pressure and associated cool and stable air
across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorms over most locales
tomorrow (Thursday). The one exception will be the southern FL
Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening. Here, a surface cold front
will sweep across the region, lifting a moist and buoyant low-level
airmass before moving offshore. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
during the afternoon hours, before the cold front clears moisture
from the region.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261728
SWODY2
SPC AC 261726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper low over the eastern third of US is forecast to deepen considerable Thursday as a large ridge also intensifies over the
central and western parts of the country. A weak secondary shortwave
trough will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest behind the
building ridge. At the surface, a cold front will move offshore over
south FL with strong high pressure building behind it. This will
force offshore flow over much of the US. The one exception will be
the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow afternoon and evening where
isolated thunderstorms are possible before the front clears the
coast. Elsewhere, sporadic lightning is possible in the lee of the
Great Lakes, but coverage should be minimal. No severe weather is
expected.

..Lyons.. 11/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270655
SWODY2
SPC AC 270654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains tomorrow
(Friday) night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are
not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure across much of the Interior West, as well as
the northern and eastern CONUS, will limit thunderstorm potential in
these regions due to static stability. However, the rapid approach
of a mid-level trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis over the
southern Plains tomorrow (Friday). As the surface low materializes
over western OK during the day, modest low-level moisture will
advect northward with the aid of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet.
7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are expected to overspread the
aforementioned low-level warm-air advection, promoting
destabilization Friday night/early Saturday morning atop a stable
boundary layer. This elevated buoyancy, characterized by 500-1000
J/kg thin MUCAPE constrained above 700 mb, will support nocturnal
thunderstorm development over portions of the southern Plains, when
the primary upper support with the approaching mid-level trough
arrives. Given strong vertical wind shear (e.g. elongated
hodographs), a few of the stronger storms may produce hail. However,
given limited elevated MUCAPE, the confidence in the coverage of
more than sparse severe hail is too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271722
SWODY2
SPC AC 271720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains and lower
Missouri Valley Friday night into early Saturday morning. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US will shift eastward behind a
departing trough over the East. A second trough will deepen over the
Rockies encouraging lee cyclogenesis over the southern Plains
Friday. As the surface low deepens, modest low-level moisture will
advect northward with a 40-60 kt southerly low-level jet. Lift from
the approaching trough and an attendant cold front will support
isolated thunderstorms from the southern Plains to the lower MO
Valley late Friday into early Saturday.

...Southern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley...
Ahead of the lee low, strong low-level warm air advection will
transport middling surface moisture northward over parts of
central/north TX into southern OK ahead of the surging cold front.
In the wake of the prior frontal passage, a persistent surface
stable layer is likely to prevent substantial northward moisture
return over the southern Plains. However, cold mid-level
temperatures (H5 temps -24C) beneath the deepening upper trough will
likely support some elevated buoyancy development late Friday,
overnight into Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within
the boarder warm advection band. While generally weak, (~250-500
J/kg MUCAPE) sufficient destabilization and strong flow aloft could
support an occasional stronger storm capable of small hail from
northeast TX into eastern OK and the Ozarks. But, given the limited thermodynamics, a sustained severe risk appears unlikely.

..Lyons.. 11/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280656
SWODY2
SPC AC 280655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western and central Louisiana tomorrow
(Saturday) afternoon or evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains and Middle MS
Valley tomorrow (Saturday), resulting in the rapid northeastward
progression of a surface low, with a cold front poised to surge
southward across the southern Plains toward the Arklatex. Seasonal
moisture will advect northward in advance of the surface low across
much of central and eastern TX to the Sabine River Valley, promoting
enough buoyancy, amid strong deep-layer ascent, for thunderstorm
development. Given the expected presence of a strong southerly
low-level jet and accompanying vertical wind shear, isolated strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible.

...Eastern TX to the Arklatex and Sabine River Valley...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start
of the period (12Z Saturday) due to an ongoing warm-air advection
regime, driven by a 40-50 kt southwesterly low-level jet. While
low-level cloud cover should persist for much of the day across
eastern TX into the Sabine River Valley, pockets of occasional
heating will help boost surface temperatures into the upper 60s F.
Should this occur, mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates, may yield MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg in
spots. The latest guidance consensus depicts two general focal
points for thunderstorm initiation. One is along the approaching
cold front in northeast TX into southwestern AR and far northwestern
LA by early afternoon, where linear convection may develop and
support severe gusts. Ahead of the cold front, low-level confluence
bands, over the TX coastal plain, within the primary moisture axis
of the warm-air advection regime, may also support thunderstorm
initiation. Despite the departing nature of the low-level jet,
appreciable south-southwesterly 850 mb flow (30+ kts), beneath 50+
kt west-northwesterlies glancing the Arklatex, will support
elongated hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
Transient supercells may develop in these confluence bands by
afternoon into the evening hours, capable of an instance or two of
severe wind/hail, and perhaps even a tornado.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from the central Plains into the Ohio
Valley and upper Great Lakes on Saturday, with a midlevel speed max strengthening as it expands northeastward from KS to NY. East of
this system, upper ridging will occur over the East as a trough
moves out of the Maritimes.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK/KS into northern IL
by 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwest across southern MO,
western AR, and northern TX by that time. A large area of high
pressure will remain over much of the eastern CONUS, with a surface
ridge extending into the northern Gulf for much of the day. As such,
low-level moisture return will be limited from the western Gulf into
TX, with low to mid 60s F dewpoints spreading northward ahead of the
cold front. Southwesterly 850 mb winds to around 50 kt will aid
elevated moisture advection across eastern TX/LA, while the stronger surface-based instability stays generally west of the Sabine River.

...Eastern TX into western LA...
Modest heating is forecast over central TX ahead of the cold front
during the afternoon, though much of eastern TX into LA will remain
cool at the surface. Coincident with peak heating, thunderstorms are
likely to develop as the cold front intercepts the moist plume over
northern TX around 21Z. While profiles aloft will be cool, lapse
rates will not be particularly steep. With MLCAPE perhaps up to 1000
J/kg within the theta-e plume, and effective shear of 30-40 kt,
marginal hail cannot be ruled out. Locally strong gusts may also
accompany the storms as the cold front surges south.

Farther south, additional activity may develop ahead of the cold
front over southeast TX as moisture increases. Low-level wind fields
will be weak overall, but veering with height. As such, a weak/brief
tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, a line of storms will push
south along with the surging cold front, with marginal hail or
locally gusty winds. Severe risk into LA is less certain, as the
surface air mass remains cool with elevated instability. SBCAPE may
develop into southwest LA late in the period, supporting low severe probabilities.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290629
SWODY2
SPC AC 290628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as a second
mid-level trough to the west impinges on the Plains states tomorrow
(Saturday). This upper-air pattern will support surface high
pressure overspreading much of the CONUS, from the northern Rockies
to the Atlantic Coastline. However, on the southern periphery of
surface high pressure, a cold front will approach the Gulf Coast and
FL Peninsula through the first half of the period. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F will support enough
buoyancy for scattered thunderstorm development, given sufficient
lift due to low-level convergence along the cold front. A couple of
lightning flashes are possible over the central Rockies as a pocked
of cooler air aloft overspreads the region in tandem with the
passing mid-level trough. However, any scant buoyancy that develops
may only be adequate enough for lightning flashes that are too
sparse for the inclusion of thunder probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291646
SWODY2
SPC AC 291645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Gulf Coast vicinity...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Sunday, with
one embedded shortwave traversing the Midwest to Northeast, while a
second shortwave deepens as it moves from the Northwest into the
Plains. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Plains
early in the day and overspread much of the country by early Monday.

Early Sunday on the southern/eastern periphery of the surface high,
a cold front will extend from VA/NC southwestward across the Deep
South and northwest Gulf into South Texas. The front will progress
south and east through the period, eventually moving offshore the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts and into central FL. Modest instability is
expected to develop mainly offshore over the Gulf and perhaps the FL
Peninsula ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop near the coast within a band of moist/warm advection aided
by modest midlevel southwesterly flow atop the surface frontal zone.
Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 11/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300652
SWODY2
SPC AC 300651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along the Gulf Coast tomorrow
(Monday) into early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will intensify while traversing the central CONUS
tomorrow (Monday), resulting in surface low development along the
Gulf Coast late in the period. As this occurs, a broad warm-air
advection regime will become established across the Southeast,
resulting in mainly elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg
MUCAPE) ushering inland. A broad shield of rain with embedded
thunderstorms should become established across the Sabine River
Valley into MS by 00Z, progressing eastward toward the eastern Gulf
Coast by 12Z Tuesday morning. Most guidance indicates the warm front
and associated surface-based buoyancy remaining just offshore, along
with the anticipated surface low. However, some guidance (e.g. the
00Z NAM) hints at some surface based buoyancy reaching the shoreline
in the 00-12Z period. Should this occur, a sparse severe threat
cannot be ruled out. However, given that the guidance consensus
strays from this scenario, severe probabilities have not been
introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301714
SWODY2
SPC AC 301712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the
Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front pushing into the northern Gulf today is
forecast to stall early Monday morning before gradually advancing
northward as a warm front late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
ahead of an approaching upper wave. Elevated thunderstorms are
possible beginning Monday morning within the warm advection regime
across the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast and Carolina
coast through the early morning hours Tuesday.

...FL Panhandle Coast...
Any appreciable chance for surface-based convection will likely come
during the 09-12 UTC Tuesday period as a surface low intensifies
over GA and supports inland return of mid-60 F dewpoints into the FL
Panhandle region. Despite this moisture return, poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit overall buoyancy values with most guidance
depicting surface-based lifted indices of around -1 Celsius. Strong
low-level kinematic fields in the vicinity of the intensifying low
could potentially support a severe wind/tornado threat if low-level moistening/destabilization is sufficient for deep convection;
however, most forecast solutions suggest dewpoints above 67 F may be
required for this to occur. Getting such dewpoints inland beyond the
immediate coast prior to 12z appears improbable (25% chance) based
on recent ensemble guidance, so any severe probabilities continue to
be withheld.

..Moore.. 11/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010700
SWODY2
SPC AC 010658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief
tornado are possible Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will impinge on the Atlantic Coastline, with a
surface low poised to rapidly translate northeast from the eastern
Gulf Coast toward the New England coast tomorrow (Tuesday). During
the first half of the period, low-level warm-air advection ahead of
and to the north of the surface low will support primarily elevated
buoyancy overspreading the Southeast and Carolina coastlines.
Widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms are likely through
00Z Wednesday.

...FL Panhandle...
During the first few hours of the period (e.g. 12-16Z Tuesday
morning), a few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms (remnant
from the Day 1 period) may be ongoing along the FL Panhandle region.
Large, curved, and elongated hodographs may precede the ongoing
storms amid scant surface-based buoyancy within the warm-air
advection regime. Over 500 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap with 200-400
m2/s2 0-3 km SRH along the western fringes of a departing low-level
jet, supporting a risk for a damaging gust or perhaps a brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday across the Southeast to
the Atlantic Coastline. A damaging gust or brief tornado are
possible mainly Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle.

...FL Gulf Coast...
A broad upper trough over the eastern US will intensify as it moves
eastward early Tuesday. As ascent from the upper trough overspreads
the Southeastern CONUS, an initially modest surface trough along a
stalled frontal zone will rapidly deepen and organize into a strong
coastal low, moving from the FL Gulf Coast to the Carolinas by early
Wednesday. The front will sharpen and surge south behind the low and
upper trough as high pressure and strong cold advection develop over
the eastern half of the US.

Early in the day, southerly low level-winds ahead of the front and
deepening low will allow for modest northward return of modified
Gulf moisture over parts of FL and far southern GA. Despite a
relatively cool boundary-layer limiting the northward advance of the
more moist air mass, weak destabilization is expected for the first
few hours of the period. Isolated strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms may move onshore across the FL Panhandle/Big bend
region before spreading northeastward across the northern Peninsula.
Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, around 500 J/kg MLCAPE may
overlap with large low-level hodographs and strong deep-layer shear
favorable for transient supercells/line segments capable of isolated
damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado. The severe threat should
end by midday as surface winds veer and the front accelerates
offshore.

...Outer Banks...
As the upper trough and surface low intensify and shift eastward,
the front will gradually move toward the coast with an increasingly
narrow warm sector. Numerous thunderstorms are expected in the
near-shore waters early Tuesday into the evening hours. While most
model soundings show cool and stable conditions near the surface, a
brief window could exist for a storm to move onshore from late
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. Neutral stability at the
surface amid very strong low-level warm advection could allow for a
brief tornado given supercell wind profiles. However, buoyancy will
be very weak and any risk will be constrained to the immediate
coast. Thus, while a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the
short-lived severe risk appears very limited before the low and
trailing front move offshore in the afternoon.

..Lyons.. 12/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020700
SWODY2
SPC AC 020659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021716
SWODY2
SPC AC 021715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..15_ows.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021744
SWODY2
SPC AC 021715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
A broad, low-amplitude mid-level trough will traverse the central
CONUS tomorrow (Wednesday), aiding in the reinforcement of surface
high pressure and associated static stability across most of the
CONUS. While thunderstorm development should be suppressed over most
locales, isolated thunderstorms may develop within a broad warm-air
advection regime along the western Gulf Coast. Thunderstorms will be
most likely as a cold front surges into the Gulf, locally enhancing
low-level lift within the warm-air advection regime. Forecast
soundings along the TX/LA coast and inland suggest that a stable
layer will be in place, so storms inland should be elevated in
nature. Given the expected meager buoyancy, the risk for severe
storms appears too low for probabilities.

..15_ows.. 12/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030650
SWODY2
SPC AC 030649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Thursday)
across coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity. Severe potential appears very low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will gradually progress across the central
and eastern CONUS tomorrow (Thursday), encouraging surface high
pressure and static stability to overspread most of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm development. However, weak surface low
development should take place along the TX coastline during the day,
with the low translating eastward along the Gulf Coast into early
Friday morning. Warm-air advection ahead and to the north of the low
will encourage at least weak, elevated buoyancy to spread inland,
where isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible.
Current guidance suggests that the surface warm front should remain
just offshore, along with surface-based instability. As such, the
severe threat appears too low to warrant probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031655
SWODY2
SPC AC 031654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Western/central Gulf Coast...
Elevated convection is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning along
portions of the northwest Gulf Coast, with a surface front likely
offshore of the Middle TX to southern LA coasts. Strong deep
convection should be relegated along and south of this front in the
adjacent coastal waters, which should result in greater southeast
displacement of the boundary away from the TX/southwest LA coast
during the day. The front could brush extreme southeast LA towards
midday/early afternoon, but the bulk of CAM guidance indicates that
severe gust/waterspout potential should be confined offshore. With
the primary upstream shortwave trough quickly moving from the
southern High Plains to the OH Valley and remaining low amplitude,
the surface reflection along the outflow-reinforced front will be
weak. As such, while severe probabilities may not be zero, they
appear too low to warrant a categorical highlight over land.

..Grams.. 12/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040655
SWODY2
SPC AC 040654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast tomorrow (Friday) or Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing will overspread much of the CONUS tomorrow
(Friday), prompting a surface trough to impinge on the Great Lakes
region while another surface low quickly develops along the northern
High Plains. Regardless of the synoptic weather pattern in place, a
relatively cool/dry, statically stable airmass will encompass much
of the Interior West, to the Plains states, eastward to the Atlantic
Seaboard. Therefore, thunderstorm development will be limited across
much of the CONUS. The one exception will be along the Gulf Coast.
Here, low-level moisture advection, prompted by an approaching upper
trough, will supply enough deep-layer ascent amid scant buoyancy
(e.g. a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE) for a few thunderstorms through
Friday.

..Squitieri.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041729
SWODY2
SPC AC 041728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast Friday.

...Synopsis...
Broad mid-level troughing over the eastern US is forecast to
continue Friday as several small-scale perturbations pass over the
Plains and Midwest. At the surface, a low will deepen over the
northern Rockies while a stalled front will remain in place along
the Gulf Coast. Behind the front, a cold and dry polar air mass will
largely preclude thunderstorm development over much of the US. The
exception will be along the central and northeastern Gulf Coast
where a few thunderstorms are possible early.

...Southern LA to the FL Panhandle...
Along the stalled front, a weak wave low is forecast to develop
across the northern Gulf ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave moving
out of the southern Plains. Convergence along the front and ahead of
this feature could allow the front to move inland a few miles Friday
morning. While not overly warm nor moist, modest destabilization
could support isolated elevated thunderstorms inland and closer to
the coast through midday. Strong flow aloft and backing along the
front could allow for a few transient rotating cells. This appears
most likely over parts of southern LA and the FL Big Bend where
storms closer to the front could potentiality be near surface-based
for a couple hours. However, given the weak buoyancy and few if any surface-based storms inland for a longer duration, severe potential
remains too low for probabilities.

..Lyons.. 12/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050547
SWODY2
SPC AC 050545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Dec 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from a possible isolated weak thunderstorm or two across parts
of the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the nation Saturday through Saturday
night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate little change to the large-scale pattern across much
of North America through this period. Downstream of lingering
mid/upper ridging just inland of the Pacific coast, flow will
continue to split into broad troughing centered within one branch,
across Hudson Bay through portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast,
and another, across the central/southern Great Plains through
Southeast. Weak, positively-tilted troughing is also forecast to
linger across and southwest of southern Baja, between an
increasingly suppressed high over the southern mid-latitude to
subtropical eastern Pacific and ridging across the Caribbean through
western subtropical Atlantic.

In lower levels, the primary surface front may advance a bit farther
offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and into the central
Florida Peninsula, but models suggest it will stall across the
northwestern Gulf Basin and perhaps redevelop northward toward
northeastern Gulf coastal areas Saturday night.

...Northeastern Gulf coast/Florida Peninsula...
Low-level moistening and insolation may contribute to boundary-layer destabilization in a corridor near/just ahead of the front across
the central Florida Peninsula during the day Saturday. While this
could become supportive of at least attempts at deepening convective development by late Saturday afternoon, relatively warm mid-level
temperatures and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent seem likely to
limit thunderstorm development to perhaps a weak thunderstorm or
two.

Better potential for thunderstorms may develop by late Saturday
night across the northeastern Gulf, aided by forcing for ascent
downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the southern Great
Plains, perhaps preceded by a perturbation emerging from the
subtropics. This might include convection rooted with lift
associated with lower/mid-troposphere warm advection, as far north
as coastal southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend vicinity.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051652
SWODY2
SPC AC 051650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward across the Mid-South on Saturday, and then move
offshore of the Carolinas by early Sunday morning. Upstream, a
midlevel shortwave trough and attendant surface low will move
southeastward from the northern High Plains toward the mid MS
Valley.

Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential
across most of the CONUS on Saturday. Weak convection and possibly
isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across the
FL Peninsula, in the vicinity of a weakening front. Late Saturday
night into early Sunday morning, thunderstorms may develop near the
central Gulf Coast vicinity, north of an offshore front that is
expected to slowly move northward late in the period. Where
thunderstorms occur, generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy
are expected to limit organized-severe potential through the period.

..Dean.. 12/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060542
SWODY2
SPC AC 060541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the
central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild
offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while
being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this
period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the
larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay
vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while
at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within
another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast.

This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level
height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late
Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin. Downstream, a
weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving
frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with
subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western
Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly
across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday
evening. However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly
low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary
layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and
become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening.
It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of
thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold
front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor.

At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the
environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe
weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or
two. With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings
do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong
deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb. At this
point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to
introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other
model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061651
SWODY2
SPC AC 061649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across portions of
Florida. Severe potential appears low at this time.

...Florida...

An upper trough will develop east from the Plains toward the eastern
U.S. on Sunday. As this occurs, a belt of 30-40 kt 850-700 mb
west/southwest flow will overspread portions of the FL Peninsula
atop a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across
north-central FL. Forecast soundings depict elongated hodographs
with modestly curved low-level hodographs in the vicinity of the
surface boundary during the afternoon into early evening.

Surface heating will be somewhat muted by cloud cover, and
persistent showers/isolated thunderstorms in the warm advection
regime to the cool side of the boundary. Furthermore, midlevel
temperatures are forecast to be rather warm, limiting lapse rates,
and instability will remain weak (generally less than 500 J/kg
MLCAPE). This should largely limit severe potential. However, a
stronger, rotating storm offshore from west-central FL could
approach the coast during the afternoon/early evening. While a
strong gust or waterspout could occur with this activity, over all
risk appears too low/conditional, and limited in spatial extent, to
include probabilities.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070502
SWODY2
SPC AC 070500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple weak thunderstorms near and,
perhaps, inland of southern Florida coastal areas, the risk for
thunderstorms will remain negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent, but relatively compact mid-level
vortex is likely to continue redeveloping east-southeast of southern Hudson/James Bay, into and across the Newfoundland and Labrador
vicinity during this period. However, models indicate that
large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained east of the
Rockies through the western Atlantic, downstream of persistent broad
ridging across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into U.S
Intermountain West.

One notable short wave perturbation embedded within the troughing is
forecast to accelerate east-northeast of the southern Appalachians,
across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic, but this may
contribute to suppression of subtropical ridging as far south as the
Caribbean and Bahamas. In lower levels, an associated reinforcing
intrusion of cooler/drier air appears likely to contribute to the
southward advancement of the primary cold front through much of the
remainder of the Florida Peninsula and Gulf Basin.

At the same time, it appears that another notable short wave
perturbation, progressing through the crest of upstream ridge, will
provide support for surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian
and northern U.S. Rockies by late Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by downslope aided warming across much of the high
plains, but dry, stable conditions will be maintained there and
across much of the remainder of the U.S.

...Southern Florida/Keys...
Latest model output remains varied concerning potential for
thunderstorm development along/ahead of the southward advancing
front. Mid/upper support appears weak, with potential for
appreciable destabilization, particularly inland of coastal areas,
limited as well.

..Kerr.. 12/07/2025

$$

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