04/28/2023

At 0134 UTC on April 27, The Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning:

"An equatorial coronal hole is currently elevating solar wind
speeds. Combined with the anticipated impact from a recent CME on
April 27, geomagnetic activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels
over April 27-28, with a slight chance of an isolated period of G2."

Solar and geomagnetic indicators moved in opposite directions this
week. Average daily sunspot numbers over April 20-26 made a dramatic
drop from 146.9 to 91.4, and average daily solar flux from 164.5 to
139.4.

Average daily planetary A index more than tripled from 8.1 to 26.9,
while average middle latitude A index more than doubled from 7.3 to
15.6.

Solar wind and explosions caused all this grief.

Spaceweather.com[1] reported that on April 21, a large magnetic
filament on the Sun exploded, hurling debris toward Earth.

Later they reported that on April 23 at 1737 UTC a CME hit Earth,
sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm. Aurora was visible as
far south as southern New Mexico and Texas.

The planetary K index went as high as 8 over April 23-24.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 135 on April 28-30, 140
on May 1-2, 135 on May 3-4, 140 on May 5-6, thenÿ 145, 150, 155, 160
and 165 on May 7-11, 170 on May 12-13, then 165, 160, 155, 150, 145
and 140 on May 14-19, 135 on May 20-21, 130 and 125 on May 22-23,
120 on May 24-25, then 125, 130 and 135 on May 26-28, 140 on May 29
through June 2, then 145, 150, 155, 160, and 165 on June 3-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 25, 16 and 12 on April 28-30, 8 on
May 1-5, 12 and 10 on May 6-7, 8 on May 8-9, then 5, 5 and 12 on May
10-12, 5 on May 13-15, 8 on May 16-17, 5 on May 18-22, then 15 and
18 on May 23-34, and 15 on May 25-27, then 12 and 10 on May 28-29, 8
on May 30-31, then 5, 5 and 12 on June 1-3, and 5 on June 4-6.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - April 27, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The most important event of the last seven days was the solar flare
on 21 April with a maximum at 1812 UTC (1744 - 1857 UT). It was a
long duration event (LDE), accompanied by the ejection of a cloud of
coronal plasma into space, at a location on the Sun where there is a
high probability of the cloud hitting the Earth. It is therefore not
surprising that all forecast centres agreed in predicting the
impending disturbance.

"The speed of the solar wind jumped up on 23 April at 1703 UTC,
after which a geomagnetic disturbance began to develop. It was much
stronger than expected (max K=8 and G4 instead of the expected K=6
and G1-2). Auroras were observed with two maxima - in Europe on 23
April mainly between 1900-2100 UTC and in North America on 24 April
between 0300-0400 UTC.

"Thereafter, propagation conditions deteriorated significantly,
especially on 24-25 April, with one interesting variation of the
evolution: the calming of the geomagnetic field on the morning of 25
April UTC was followed by a further development of the disturbance
with an albeit shorter but significant improvement. The return of
the critical frequencies of the F2 layer and the improvement of
shortwave propagation conditions toward the mean continued only
slowly in the following days, as intervals of increased geomagnetic
activity occurred daily. The lowest f0F2 were observed on the night
of 23-24 April. The following night was slightly better."

Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

"I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
in a 2 hour period.

"On Monday, the 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
FANTASTIC, and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
understand.

"Here's my question.ÿ Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
20m and 40m)?

"You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
egg.'"

I replied:

"I recommend pskreporter.info[2], and look on the map screen for FT8
signals from your grid square and where they are heard. You don't
have to use FT8 to use this.

"You can also check for the 'country of callsign' option with your
own or any callsign.ÿ When I do this for 10 meters, this week it has
been showing no propagation from my area, but lots of 10 meter
propagation in the south and across the east coast.

"I use FT8 a lot to study propagation."

Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico wrote:

"Been doing a lot of FT8 these months. More DXpeditions are
including its operation.ÿ Just last week on April 16th at 1939 UTC
worked VU7W and in WARD April 18th T30UN at 0721 on 40m and 0735 on 30m, the two ATNOs."

(I think WARD refers to World Amateur Radio Day, and of course ATNO
refers to All Time New One, something I did not know until a few
years ago. -K7RA)

"But on the 20th, at 0800 UTC, saw stations on 10 meters, normally
you do not hear them on any mode at that time. Then I began to call
them and a few from Europe contacted me. Then at about 0845 UTC,
'poof' they disappeared.

"These are the things that make me say that it is because of the
'crazy prop' (la propa loca)."

Tomas Hood, NW7US has a monthly propagation column in CQ Magazine,
which is a great resource. In the March issue he writes about the
promising progress of Solar Cycle 25.

Another great resource is Chapter 19, the "Propagation of Radio
Signals" in the 2023 100th edition of the ARRL Handbook. It contains
the most comprehensive treatment of radio propagation I have ever
seen and goes on for 38 pages.

Aurora observed in China:

https://bit.ly/41KyY3w[3]

Aurora in Iowa:

https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S[4]

An article explaining aurora:

https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2[5]

A Science & Tech article about Sun science:

https://bit.ly/429Sqq9

From 2017, a NASA sunspot video:

https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to
tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere[10] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[11] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[13] .

Sunspot numbers for April 20 through 26, 2023 were 97, 114, 87, 86,
88, 87, and 81, with a mean of 91.4. 10.7 cm flux was 147, 151.2,
141.2, 135.2, 133.9, 130.7, and 136.5, with a mean of 139.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 9, 7, 66, 76, 10, and 15, with
a mean of 26.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 6, 32, 39, 7, and
12, with a mean of 15.6.
ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] http://pskreporter.info
[3] https://bit.ly/41KyY3w
[4] https://bit.ly/3Nlvy2S
[5] https://bit.ly/3n7ROm2
[6] https://www.exploratorium.edu/video/nasa-life-sunspot
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-Earth-the-ionosphere
[11] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/12/2023

We saw a modest increase in solar activity in this reporting week, May 4-10.

Average daily sunspot numbers nudged up from 114 to 119.3, and average daily solar flux from 151.5 to 167.1 ÿ

Average daily planetary A index changed from 13.6 to 15.1, and average middle latitude A index remained the same, 11.9.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on May 12-13, then 155, 150 and 150 on May 14-16, 145 on May 17-18, 155 on May 19-21, 150 on May 22, 145 on May 23-25, then 140 and 145 on May 26-27, 155 on May 29-30, 160 on May 31 through June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160, 150, 145 and 150 on June 8-12, and 155 on June 13-17. ÿ

Predicted planetary A index is 30, 12 and 8 on May 12-14, 5 on May 15-22, then 12 and 20 on May 23-24, 15 on May 25-26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May 30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June 6-8, and 5 on June 9- 18, then 12 and 20 on June 19-20.

Stormy space weather: ÿ

https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge[1] .

BBC on viewing aurora: ÿ

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/[2]

More: ÿ

https://bit.ly/44Rruxk[3] ÿ

Jon, N0JK wrote on May 9: ÿ

"Good 6 Meter Es, TEP May 7 FT8 from northeast Kansas. ÿ

I worked CX2AQ and LU5FF from home with an attic dipole on FT8. This around 2115 UTC. Not strong, but solid contacts. I then set up portable.

Worked CE2SV and CE3SX. CE3SX called me, also FT8. Had difficulty keeping yagi up due to gusty winds. On ON4KST Dale, CE2SV noted: ÿ

00:11:46 N0JK Jon, A struggle on my side, wind blew antenna down several times and broke director. Duct tape to the rescue. ÿ

00:11:07 N0JK Jon (CE2SV) Dale - Thank you for the contact. ÿ

22:42:46 CE2SV Dale (N0JK) Finally Jon ... TU ÿÿ

Gary, N0KQY observes there is a 'consistent time frame' for Es -- TEP to South America from the Midwest. Best seems to be 2000-0000 UTC." Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere May 12-18, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH. ÿ

"The more vivid and complex solar activity is, the less predictable it is. The same is valid for its effects in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. ÿ

This was particularly true of the solar flares of May 4 and 5, and also of the G2 class geomagnetic storm with auroras. The CMEs overlapping each other were difficult to separate. ÿ

Another CME that struck the Earth on May 7 (1544 UTC) was expected but, contrary to predictions, did not cause a significant storm. Another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hit the Earth on May 9 at 2310 UTC. ÿShortly before, AR3296 (with reversed magnetic polarity and thus violating Hale's law) released a double solar flare. ÿ

The consequence was the Dellinger effect (a shortwave fade) up to 25 MHz from 1900-2100 UTC. Another CME followed with a velocity of over 1,000 km/s (2.24 million mph). Shock waves at its leading edge accelerated protons to nearly the speed of light, making them 'relativistic particles', for which time passes more slowly. They can reach the Earth and affect the ionosphere. ÿ

These lines are written on the afternoon of 11 May UTC, when the particles from the eruption of 9 May with a maximum at 1858 UTC are expected to arrive. ÿ

Large AR3296 and AR3297 will set behind the northwestern edge of the solar disc in a few days. In the meantime, AR3301 and AR3302 emerged in the northeast. ÿ

Helioseismological observations indicate another large sunspot group will follow them out. Therefore, the current variable nature of the evolution with numerous disturbances will continue." ÿ

Five days ago from Dr. Tamitha Skov: ÿ

https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q[4] ÿ

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating. ÿ

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] ÿ. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] . ÿ

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] . ÿ

Sunspot numbers for May 4 through 10, 2023 were 139, 90, 99, 99, 103, 151, and 154, with a mean of 119.3. 10.7 cm flux was 162, 161.9, 151.8, 157.2, 171.9, 194.7, and 170.1, with a mean of 167.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 30, 9, 16, 14, and 26, with a mean of 15.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 21, 8, 13, 11, and 19, with a mean of 11.9.


[1] https://www.space.com/sun-reverse-sunspot-auroras-supercharge
[2] https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/northern-lights-may-2023-backward-sunspot/
[3] https://bit.ly/44Rruxk
[4] https://youtu.be/E1lBqqWEa5Q
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/19/2023

This reporting week, May 11-17, average daily sunspot number was
nearly the same as last week, 118.6 compared to 119.3, only
marginally lower.

But average daily solar flux dropped from 167.8 to 143.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter, both planetary and middle
latitude A index at 9.6. Last week the two numbers were 15.1 and
11.9, respectively.

What is the outlook for the next few weeks?

10.7 cm solar flux is forecast to have a peak of 165 on June 8.

The predicted numbers are 145 on May 19, 140 on May 20-21, 135 on
May 22-24, 140 on May 25-26, 145 on May 27, 155 on May 28-30, 160 on
May 31 and June 1, 155 on June 2-3, 160 on June 4-7, then 165, 160,
150, 145, and 150 on June 8-12, then 155 on June 13-17, 150 on June
18, 145 on June 19-21, 140 and 145 on June 22-23, and 155 on June
24-26 then 160 on June 27-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 15 and 5 on May 19-23, 12
on May 24-25, 15 on May 26, 10 on May 27-28, 8 on May 29, 5 on May
30 through June 1, then 16, 12, 16 and 12 on June 2-5, 8 on June
6-8, then 5 on June 9-18, 12 and 20 on June 19-20, 15 on June 21-22,
10 on June 23-24, 8 on June 25, and 5 on June 26-28.

These numbers are updated daily here:

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt[1]

Thanks to reader David Moore for this:

"How 1,000 undergraduates helped solve an enduring mystery about the
Sun:

"https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm[2]

"For three years at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of
students spent an estimated 56,000 hours analyzing the behavior of
hundreds of solar flares. Their results could help astrophysicists
understand how the Sun's corona reaches temperatures of millions of
degrees Fahrenheit."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 18, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"On May 12, we expected a CME impact from the flare on the evening
of May 9. It was indeed registered - at 0635 UTC the geomagnetic
storm began. However, it was weaker than expected, of G1 class.

"On 13 May at 1915 UTC, an unexpected CME impact followed for a
change, which again triggered another G1 class geomagnetic storm.

"On 16 May, we expected another smaller CME. The particle cloud has
been slowly approaching Earth since the magnetic filament eruption
in the southern hemisphere of the Sun on 12 May.

"The next solar flare on May 16, with a maximum at 1643 UTC, was
M9.6 class. It came from a sunspot group still hiding behind the
southeastern limb of the Sun. In fact, it may have been an X flare,
partially obscured by the solar horizon. Yet it caused the strong
Dellinger effect (shortwave fade) over North America. After the
sunspot group came out on the solar disk, we could observe it as AR
3310. It's about three times wider than Earth, and its magnetic
configuration promises more flares.

"Not only was solar flare activity quite high, but the Sun was
hurling so many CMEs into space that hardly a day went by without
one hitting Earth. Therefore, the frequency of geomagnetic storms
was also higher, followed by frequent deterioration of shortwave
propagation conditions. In summary, the 25th solar cycle continues
to evolve nicely."

Frank, VO1HP sent this from St. Johns, Newfoundland:

"On May 12 1957-2113 UTC, there was a strong 6M Es opening into mid
South America. Logged 20 stations using FT8. No CW or SSB heard.
Stations worked at VO1HP remote station: LU3CQ, CE3SX, 2SV, LI7DUE,
9AEA, 9DO, 1FAM, 8EX, CX3VB, PP5BK, LU2DPW, CX1VH, PU3AMB, CX6VM, LU3FAP, XQ3SK, XQ3MCC, CE3VRT, 3SOC, and LU5FF.

"Antenna 4el Yagi at 35ft overlooking ocean. K3 + PR6, KPA500
KAT500. Other VO1s seen: VO1CH, VO1SIX, and VO1AW."

On April 24, Rocky Riggs, W6RJK in Truckee, California wrote:

"I was not very active until recently when I was introduced to POTA.
The park I frequent the most would typically give me 40-60 contacts
in a 2 hour period.

"On Monday, April 24th, I went to the same park, and in 30+ minutes
had no contacts and couldn't hear anyone either. I later found out
that the solar storm was causing most of our radio problems. Until
then, I had never considered much about solar flares, or how the Sun
influences radio propagation. Now, finally, I'm trying to learn as
much as I can. The K7RA Solar Update in the ARRL Newsletter is
FANTASTIC and will be my source going forward to help me learn and
understand.

"Here's my question.ÿ Is there a 'real time' place where I can go to
determine if a particular band has good propagation (I typically use
20m and 40m)?

"You know, like before I go out and get all set up and it's a 'goose
egg.'"

As I first reported in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, I told
him that a very useful tool (to use) is to check real time
geomagnetic indices with this:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[3]

Nice quiet conditions show a planetary A index at 1 or 2, unsettled
conditions at 3, then above 3 conditions are disturbed. The scale is logarithmic, so each point in either direction is important.

Another approach is to use pskreporter at https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[4] which is handy if you live
in a grid square that has many active hams, or a nearby grid that is
more populated.

You can check FT8 activity on any band. There is also a "Country of
Callsign" selection so you can check activity across your nation of
choice. Recently when I have raised nobody on 10 meter FT8 this
option showed no activity here in the Pacific Northwest but plenty
of 10 meter activity in the southeast United States.

Here is a new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA[5]

NASA sunspot picture:

https://bit.ly/458DrPw[6]

A video of a recent eruption:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY[7]

Here are articles about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/434c5bw[8]

https://bit.ly/3pWId2e[9]

https://bit.ly/45hXTxh[10]

https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa[11]

NASA warning of a Solar Storm threat:

https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2[12]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[13]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[14] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[15] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[16] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

Sunspot numbers for May 11 through 17, 2023 were 152, 134, 120, 109,
103, 106, and 106, with a mean of 118.6. 10.7 cm flux was 163.4,
149.1, 143.8, 139.7, 134.5, 134.3, and 137.9, with a mean of 143.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 19, 13, 8, 6, 8, and 4, with a
mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 10, 15, 12, 9, 6, 10, and
5, with a mean of 9.6.

ÿ


[1] https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/45-day-ap-forecast.txt
[2] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230509122026.htm
[3] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
[4] https://www.pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[5] https://youtu.be/xSQYjH6D_YA
[6] https://bit.ly/458DrPw
[7] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rm7M5pqjCgY
[8] https://bit.ly/434c5bw
[9] https://bit.ly/3pWId2e
[10] https://bit.ly/45hXTxh
[11] https://bit.ly/3MEkCwa
[12] https://bit.ly/3pSK4p2
[13] k7ra@arrl.net
[14] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[15] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[16] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[18] http://k9la.us/
[19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/26/2023

Both average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week.ÿ Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 118.6 to 133.4, while average solar flux went from 143.2 to 161.2.

Geomagnetic indicators were more active.ÿ Average daily planetary A index went from 9.6 to 17.1, while average middle latitude A index rose from 9.6 to 14.4.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on May 26, 155 on May 27 and 28, then 150, 145, 140 and 135 on May 29 through June 1, 155 on June 2 to 4, then 160, 165, 160, 155, and 150 on June 5 to 9, 145 on June 10 and 11, 150 on June 12, 155 on June 13 and 14, 160 on June 15, 165 on June 16 and 17, then 160, 155 and 150 on June 18 to 20, 155 on June 21 and 22, then 160, 165 and 160 on June 23 to 25, 155 on June 26 and 27, 150 on June 28, and 155 on June 29 to July 1, then 160, 165 and 160 on July 2 to 4.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 8, 5, 12 and 10 on May 26 to 30, 5 on May 31 through June 1, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 2 to 5, 5 on June 6 to 15, then 12, 10, 5, 18, 22, 15 and 10 on June 16 to 22, 5 on June 23 to 28, then 16, 8, 10 and 8 on June 29 through July 2, and 5 through the first week of July.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere - May 25, 2023

We've seen another seven days of turbulent developments on the Sun and around the Earth.ÿ The large, seen even without binoculars (e.g., eclipse glasses) visible sunspot group AR3310 in the southern hemisphere was the source of the strongest flare on May 16 with an X-ray event maximum of M9.6.

Another group AR3311 in the north, due to its unstable magnetic field configuration "beta-gamma-delta", produced almost all the other flares.ÿ The stronger ones were the cause of Dellinger events (SWF = Shortwave fadeout, in the case of M9.6 it was registered in the whole shortwave range in the region where the Sun was high).

Moreover, the eruptions, combined with sporadic E layer, often significantly affected the propagation in the lower shortwave bands by deep and irregular fadeouts.

SOHO recorded a rare conjunction on May 21, when a filament near the Sun's north pole was ejected as a CME in direction to the Pleiades, Seven Sisters star cluster.ÿ Coronagraph on SOHO has been operating since 1995 and was the first to operate in real time.ÿ No one had ever seen anything like it before.

Since May 24, we observed a new and rapidly growing group of spots, AR3315, in which we can expect more major solar flares as time goes on.ÿ So the turbulent evolution with changing and often worsening shortwave propagation conditions continue.

F. K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH"

K7EG wrote:

"I have been in the DX hobby since 1950 and seem to see an increasing, alarming recent trend in solar and geomagnetic activity impacting trends in radio disturbances.ÿ Tell me I am wrong and it's just a 'blip' but solar activity seems beyond the norm and worsening."

I replied that with greater solar activity we should expect more flares, solar wind, and disturbances.ÿ I think the disturbances are normal and expected with the rising solar cycle.

When I suspect conditions are disturbed, this is where I check to see what is happening in real time:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1]

Beautiful aurora:ÿ https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6[2]

Sunspot images:ÿ https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9[3]

https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/[4]

https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm[5]

Thanks to NO6ED for this story about an undersea volcano disrupting the ionosphere.ÿ https://bit.ly/428OAwM[6]

This weekend is the CQ World Wide WPX CW Contest.

https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. ÿÿWhen reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] ÿ.ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14] .

Sunspot numbers for May 18 through 24, 2023 were 121, 155, 138, 140, 97, 130, and 153, with a mean of 133.4.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 150.6, 164.6, 169.6, 163.4, 161.5, 154.9, and 164.1, with a mean of 161.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 9, 35, 28, 21, 12, and 12, with a mean of 17.1.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 8, 10, 26, 19, 17, 11, and 10, with a mean of 14.4.


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
[2] https://tinyurl.com/2zxdmpu6
[3] https://tinyurl.com/muaakxn9
[4] https://www.popsci.com/science/sun-images-powerful-solar-telescope/
[5] https://bit.ly/3MCqAwm
[6] https://bit.ly/428OAwM
[7] https://www.cqwpx.com/rules.htm
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/02/2023

Average daily solar flux values dropped over the past week, but
sunspot numbers were nearly the same, comparing May 25 to 31 to the
previous week.

Average daily solar flux declined from 161.2 to 155.3. Geomagnetic
indicators were quieter, with average daily planetary A index
declining from 17.1 to 7.3, and middle latitude numbers from 14.4 to
7.9.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on June 2, 155 on June 3-4, 150 on June
5-8, 130 on June 9-11, then 135, 140, 143, 145, and 150 on June
12-16, 155 on June 17-20, 150 on June 21-25, then 145, 140 and 135
on June 26-28 and 130 on June 29 to July 8.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on June 2-5, 5 on
June 6-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-24, 12
and 10 on June 25-26, then 5 on June 27-28, then 15, 12, 15, 10 and
8 on June 29 through July 3, then 5 on July 4 through the middle of
the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 1, 2023 from OK1HH:

"The Sun still surprises us, it has been in the habit for billions
of years, but we only observe it for a few hundred years. So, we
have a right to be surprised by what it is doing and what we can
observe with instruments on satellites and powerful solar telescopes
on Earth, including the largest four-metre one on the island of Maui
in Hawaii, which can see the very fine structures of sunspot nuclei.

"What's more, we're seeing spots on the far side of the Sun that are
so big, they affect the vibration of the whole Sun. But we can only
see their structure and predict possible flares after they appear on
the eastern limb of the solar disk, which was not at all the case
with the current most active AR3315, which did not appear there. It
emerged later, thereafter began to grow rapidly.
ÿ
"Conversely, the source of the next big flare was hidden behind the southeastern limb, and we only saw the prominence above it.

"Meanwhile, the larger groups of sunspots have mostly moved to the
western half of the solar disk. A large coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere now crosses the central meridian. This increases the
likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances starting on June 2."

Mike, AK7ML wrote:

"I recall in a movie about Pearl Harbor that they could not reach
Hawaii from stateside on HF and then they sent the message by cable
telegraph in routine status, so Pearl was not informed of the attack
in time.

"For years I have been able to work Australia in the morning and now
it is Indonesia that is workable instead!"

A story about a big sunspot:

https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth[1]

I've added information from this resource to the text appearing at
the bottom of every propagation forecast bulletin (this resource
comes from September 2002 QST):

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[2]

I was sad to learn that old friend Chip Margelli, K7JA became a
Silent Key on May 25. Chip was from the Seattle area, and first came
to my attention when he became proficient in the Japanese language
during high school, then specialized in running JA stations at the
old Rush Drake, W7RM contest station on Foulweather Bluff in Puget
Sound.ÿ At one time he may have been the most famous American ham in
Japan, or so I heard at the time.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for May 25 through 31, 2023 were 121, 127, 125, 119,
153, 144, and 147, with a mean of 133.7. 10.7 cm flux was 152.1,
149, 156.9, 151.3, 154.4, 162, and 161.4, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 4, 11, 4, 5, and 10, with
a mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 6, 5, 11, 5, 6, and
11, with a mean of 7.9.

ÿ


[1] https://www.fox9.com/news/giant-sunspot-ar3310-visible-earth
[2] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[3] k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/09/2023

Solar activity was up this week, with the average daily sunspot
number increasing from 133.7 to 139, and average daily solar flux
from 155.3 to 166.8.

Average daily planetary A index stayed the same at 7.3, and average
middle latitude A index went from 7.9 to 8.6.

Predicted solar flux doesn't show any improvement, with peaks at 170
on June 23-25 and July 20-21.

The forecast shows solar flux at 168, 163, 157, 160, 157, 153, 160
and 150 on June 9-16, 155 on June 17-20, then 160 and 165 on June
21-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168, 165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160
on June 29 through July 4, then 155, 150 and 145 on July 5-7, then
140, 135, 140, 143, 145 and 150 on July 8-13, and 155 on July 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 10 and 8 on June 9-12, 5 on
June 13-17, then 22, 15, 12 and 10 on June 18-21, 5 on June 22-26,
then 10, 12, 5 and 5 on June 27-30, then 8, 12 and 8 on July 1-3,
and 5 on July 4-7, then 10, 12 and 8 on July 8-10, and 5 on July
11-14, then 22. 15. 12 and 10 on July 15-18.

In some previous bulletins I was reporting 10 meter propagation
observed with FT8 only into Florida from my QTH in Seattle, and also
into Mexico at a similar distance.

Recently on 10 meters I am seeing propagation into VK/ZL, and in
North America mostly into Southern California, Nevada, Utah and
Arizona. Some seasonal variation, I suppose.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 8, 2023 from OK1HH:

"In the last seven days, solar activity has remained at a slightly
elevated level, with daily C-class flares and a few M-class flares.
This, together with the decrease in geomagnetic activity, has
resulted in a gradual increase in the daily maximum of the highest
usable frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer. At the same time,
however, the attenuation in the lower ionospheric layers grew, which
manifested as earlier morning closures and later evening openings of
the longer shortwave bands.

"Particle clouds from CMEs during solar flares mostly did not reach
Earth - with one exception: on 7 June at 2224 UTC, the solar wind
speed jumped from 340 to 380 km/s. For a short time, the Earth's
magnetic field activity increased, usually only to K=3.

"The situation was further complicated by the sporadic-E layer,
whose season is approaching its peak.

"Inhomogeneities (non-uniformities) in the sporadic-E layer appeared
quite frequently and extended reflections were observed in the
ionograms.

"As a consequence, the scattering of electromagnetic waves was as
well manifested as attenuation. We are talking about the ionosphere
of the northern hemisphere of the Earth. Here we will wait for the
improvement when Summer ends there -ÿ which fortunately will be much
earlier than Summer ends in the troposphere."

While searching for something else, I ran across this article from
the RSGB:

http://bit.ly/45TjWuA[1]

Mike, W9NY wrote:

"Having lived through multiple sunspot cycles since I was first
licensed in 1955, I cannot believe that 10 meters is nearly dead,
and 15 meters is minimally open. Nothing on 6 meters either.

"I discussed this with my cousin who is an astrophysicist at Oxford
who basically said, 'there are a lot of factors.' I'm just wondering
what our ham radio gurus think. I would have expected phenomenal
propagation but there is very little. Might this be related to
atomic/chemical changes in the Earth's ionosphere?"

I offered the WA4TTK Solar Data Plotting Utility as a record of
sunspot and solar flux data going back to 1989.

It can be updated weekly with a plain text file of the latest
propagation bulletin.

The data file can then be imported to any spreadsheet program for
analysis and custom graphing.

http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[2]

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[5] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[6] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[7] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[8]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins
[11]
Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2023 were 143, 147, 112, 110,
151, 133, and 177, with a mean of 139. 10.7 cm flux was 163.9,
162.3, 164.6, 168.3, 169.2, 171.8, and 167.2, with a mean of 166.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 5, 11, 5, 7, and 5, with a
mean of 7.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 8, 5, 11, 6, 10, and 6,
with a mean of 8.6.

ÿ


[1] http://bit.ly/45TjWuA
[2] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
[3] https://youtu.be/-ElKuld9xW8
[4] k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[6] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[7] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[8] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10]
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/16/2023

At 2256 UTC on June 16 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre
issued a geomagnetic warning: "The solar wind speed on UT day 15-Jun
has increased as the Earth entered a coronal hole wind stream after
15/0545UT. Increased geomagnetic activity is expected for 16-Jun
with isolated periods of G1-Minor level activity."

Earlier in the day I checked the NOAA planetary K index page, and it
showed a jump from K index of about 1.8 at 1200 UTC to about 4.1 at
1500 and again at 1800 UTC, then about 4.5 at 2100 UTC and 5.5 at
0000 UTC on June 16. At 0300 UTC it was down a bit to 5.

See, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index[1] .

Solar activity declined this week, with average daily sunspot
numbers dropping from 139 to 122, while average daily solar flux
decreased from 166.8 to 154.8. This compares the current reporting
week of June 8-14 against the previous seven days.

Average daily planetary A index decreased from 7.3 to 5.7, and
average daily middle latitude A index from 8.6 to 6.7.

On June 14 Spaceweather.com[2] reported two new sunspot groups emerging across the Sun's southeastern horizon.

Forecasters Cundiff and Trost of the U.S. Air Force 557th Weather
Wing predict solar flux at 155 on June 16-17, 160 on June 18-19,
then 155, 160 and 165 on June 20-22, 170 on June 23-25, then 168,
165 and 162 on June 26-28, 160 on June 29 through July 4, 165 on
July 5, 170 on July 6-8, then 155, 157, 153 and 160 on July 9-12,
150 on July 13-14, 155 on July 15-17, then 160 and 165 on July
18-19, and 170 on July 20-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 12 and 8 on June 16-18, 5 on June
19-20, 8 on June 21-22, 5 on June 23-26, 12 on June 27-28, 5 on June
29-30, then 12 and 8 on July 1-2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8-10,
then 5, 5, and 12 on July 11-13, and 10 on July 14-15, and 5 on July
16-23.

These predictions look great for ARRL Field Day, which is June
24-25. Why? Solar flux peaks at 170 on June 23-25, and the predicted
planetary A index is a nice quiet 5 on June 22-26. Next week we will
present an updated forecast just prior to Field Day weekend.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere June 16 - June 22, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The first half of June was quieter than May, both on the Sun and in
the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere.

"However, helioseismic maps of the far side of the Sun showed a
number of large active regions, probably sunspots. We therefore
expected an increase in activity. But that's not likely to happen
until a week from now.

"Even so, there were some rather unexpected eruptions of moderate
magnitude during the local midday, which triggered a SWF (Shortwave
Fading) that could have broken the QSO in the longer half of the
shortwave band.

"Meanwhile, we observed a coronal hole in the solar equator region
that crossed the central meridian on June 12.

"Associated with it is the co-rotating interaction region (CIR),
which are the transition zones between the slow and fast solar wind
streams. Since the accumulation of solar plasma in the solar wind
results in structures that are similar to the arrival of a CME, we
expected a geomagnetic storm on the evening of 15 June UTC. The
estimate was quite accurate - the disturbance began at 1500 UTC.

"We can expect the geomagnetic field to be active for a few more
days, including smaller storms."

K6LMN wrote:

"It was great on 6m last weekend. I was only on SSB on 6m, but I
understand it was open all over on FT8. I believe the openings were
caused by summer E-skip, not F2. I worked many, many stations in
your grid square. Roger K6LMN in DM04sb Los Angeles."

He sent this to N0JK:

"We on the West Coast were finally treated to some decent E-skip on
6 meters SSB and CW (do not know about FT8). The June VHF Contest
was just great Saturday and Sunday afternoons into early evening,
Pacific Daylight time. Before this contest the band out here has
been fairly quiet.

"So briefly, I was K6LMN/Limited Rover in DM03ÿ DM04 all around LA.
I had a tight schedule with many social engagements plus two
funerals to attend. I could not get too serious with heavy artillery
or going to 5,000+ ft. mountaintops. For 6m I simply used my Larsen
5 ft. magmount on the car roof. The rig was my old IC-706IIG with
only 90 watts SSB. I was also on 2m, 1-1/4m, and 70 cm.

"Most DX contacts were on both days up to Oregon, Washington, Idaho,
Montana, BC, and Alberta. But the surprise was Sunday early evening.
Best 2 way DX was N9XG in EN60 (Indiana) and K9CT in EN50 (Illinois)
with 1 hour to go before contest close. They were like 5 by 5 on
peaks on SSB. I am sure all this big DX was double hop summer
E-skip.

"A surprise was VA6AN way up in Canada popping in/out on SSB with
peaks up to 5 by 5 Sunday eve about 6:30 pm local time. However, the
QRM was horrible (my whip is omnidirectional) so he did not work me.

"I worked K7YO up in CN85 (his alternate QTH) and he said he was
getting into Florida on SSB or CW or FT8 on 6M. Maybe triple hop
E-skip?

"I am unhappy that us West Coasters are not getting any F2 so far on
6m in Solar Cycle 25. I am 85 years old, licensed in 1955 and was
lucky to enjoy the all-time best F2 openings on 10m and 6m (AM) back
in the Golden Days in 1956-1958 in Solar Cycle 19. Incredible!"

N0JK sent a note on June 12 that he worked IK5YJY on 6 meter FT8. He
also wrote: "6M Es all weekend and 2M Es Sunday eve for the ARRL VHF
contest. By the way, you had a station (W9NY) comment about poor
conditions on 6M in last week's bulletin. Last weekend was awesome.
I made 3 JA contacts with 10w and a 3 el yagi from KS.

"Today A71VV (Qatar) was in to Northeast KS around 1400z."

Check out the images on the A71VV page on QRZ.com.

Scotty, W7PSK sent a note on June 12 listing countries worked on 6
meter FT8: Balearic Islands, France, Spain, England and Canada.

An image of the International Space Station over a sunspot:

https://bit.ly/3NgsByW[3]

A video too:

https://bit.ly/43Em3B1[4]

A study of the Sun's coldest region:

https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu[5]

More sunspots.

https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6[6]

Another breathless warning from South Asia about flares:

https://bit.ly/42Rt2FG

This weekend is the 64th annual CW weekend of the All Asian DX
Contest. See the JARL web site for rules:

https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for June 8 through 14, 2023 were 149, 152, 116, 116,
116, 98, and 107, with a mean of 122. 10.7 cm flux was 168.5, 164.3,
161.2, 153.8, 146.1, 146.3, and 143.5, with a mean of 154.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 5, 9, 6, 6, and 5, with a
mean of 5.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 6, 4, 10, 8, 8, and 5,
with a mean of 6.7.

ÿ


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
[2] http://Spaceweather.com
[3] https://bit.ly/3NgsByW
[4] https://bit.ly/43Em3B1
[5] https://bit.ly/3X6ErQu
[6] https://bit.ly/3Nt5Ys6
[7] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/23/2023

Sunspot numbers and solar flux rose this week. There were two new
sunspot groups on June 15, another on June 17 and one more on June
18, three more on June 19, two more on June 20 and another on June
21.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 122 to 143, and average
daily solar flux rose from 154.8 to 165.4.

Average daily planetary A index jumped from 5.7 to 15.4, while the
middle latitude numbers increased from 6.7 to 13.1.

Predicted solar flux is 180 on June 23-24, 185 on June 25-27, 180 on
June 28, 175 on June 29 through July 1, 180 on July 2-3, 175 on July
4-5, 170 on July 6-10, then 165 on July 11, 160 on July 12-13, 165
on July 14-15, 160 and 155 on July 16-17, 160 on July 18-19, 165 on
July 20-24, 170 on July 25, 175 on July 26-28, and 180 on July
29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 14, 10 and 8 on June 23-25, then 5,
5, and 12 on June 26-28, then 5, 5, and 12 again on June 29 through
July 1, 8 on July 2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 on July 8, 5 on July 9-11,
then a dramatic increase to 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July
14-15, and 12 on July 16-17, 10 on July 18, 5 on July 19-23, 12 on
July 24-25, 5 on July 26-27, 12 and 8 on July 28-29, and 5 on July
30 through August 3.

These predictions are from forecasters Liming and Dethlefsen of the
US Air Force 557th Weather Wing at Offutt AFB.

See https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr[1] .

So, what does this forecast show for ARRL Field Day, which is this
weekend?

Geomagnetic numbers are a bit more unsettled than what was shown in
last week's bulletin, which had an A index of 5 for Friday through
Sunday. The latest shows 14, 10 and 8. Predicted solar flux looks
excellent, at 180, 180 and 185.

Of course, Field Day does not begin until Saturday, but here we also
include data for the day prior.

Here is a X1.1 solar flare video:

https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA[2]

Another report from South Asia regarding solar flares as some sort
of existential threat.ÿ Don't worry. Nothing terrifying about what
they report, but there is a nice description of what the SOHO
observatory does.

https://bit.ly/444VhSk[3]

https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov[4]

Reader David Moore shared this video:

https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video[5]

Don't know why, but no weekly report from OK1HH this time around.

On Thursday I attended an online event, the "Space Weather
Enterprise Forum," thanks to a tip from K6PFA.

Most of the sessions concerned threats from solar flares, but there
was great commentary from Bill Murtaugh of NOAA's Space Weather
Prediction Center.

He noted that the current solar cycle should peak in summer 2024
instead of 2025 and will peak much stronger than the consensus
forecast from earlier in the cycle. He also noted that increased
flare activity always occurs in the years following a sunspot cycle
peak.

John Dudley, Managing Director of Flight Operations at American
Airlines gave an interesting presentation about how space weather
affects routing of international flights.

He mentioned their expert on space weather at the airline, and I
looked him up. Yes, a ham, KC1ENP. Could not find an email address
for him, so I sent a QSL card to make contact.

Thanks to https://spaceweather.com/[6] for this fascinating article about setting up a personal space weather station.ÿ It is under the
heading, "A New Way To Detect Solar Flares":

https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for June 15 through 21, 2023 were 112, 120, 110,
133, 181, 155, and 190, with a mean of 143. 10.7 cm flux was 153.1,
157.2, 158.1, 164.1, 168.8, 180.1, and 176.4, with a mean of 165.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 24, 38, 8, 10, 10, 10, and 8,
with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 17, 24, 8, 12, 9,
13, and 9, with a mean of 13.1.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3qRNJnr
[2] https://bit.ly/3CI0OCA
[3] https://bit.ly/444VhSk
[4] https://soho.nascom.nasa.gov
[5] https://www.space.com/earth-sunlight-dance-solstice-video
[6] https://spaceweather.com/
[7] https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1403/2023/
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/30/2023

Space Weather News sent this alert on June 29:

"BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: One of the biggest sunspots in years is directly
facing Earth. AR3354 is 10 times wider than Earth and about 1/3rd
the size of the historical Carrington sunspot. It's so big,
observers in Europe and North America are seeing it naked eye
through the smoke of Canadian wildfires. Earth-directed flares are
likely in the days ahead."

See spaceweather.com[1] for continuing coverage.

Conditions were favorable over the Field Day weekend, with the
exception of a brief period when the planetary K index rose to 5 on
Saturday night. This is mentioned in the commentary by OK1HH which
follows.

There were five new sunspot groups on June 23, two more on June 24,
another on June 26 and another on June 27.

Average daily sunspot numbers were up, and solar flux was down.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 143 to 170, and average daily
solar flux declined slightly from 165.4 to 160.3.

This is unexpected, because we normally see these values track
together.

Predicted solar flux is 150 on June 30 through July 5, 155 on July
6, 135 on July 7-8, then 145, 155, 160, 165 and 170 on July 9-13,
175 on July 14-18, 170 on July 19-21, then 160, 150, 145, 145, 140
and 135 on July 22-27, then 130 on July 28 through August 1, 135 on
August 2-4, then 145, 155, and 165 on August 5-7. Flux values may
continue to rise to a peak of 175 before mid-August.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 15 and 10 on June 30 through July
2, 5 on July 3-7, 12 and 8 on July 8-9, 5 on July 10-11, then a
stormy 20 and 30 on July 12-13, 8 on July 14-23, 12 on July 24-25, 8
on July 26-27, 12 on July 28-29, 8 on July 30, 5 on July 31 through
August 3, 12 and 8 on August 4-5, 5 on August 6-7, then 20 and 30
again on August 8-9. Note that recurring stormy conditions are
predicted at one solar rotation, which is about 27.5 days, following
the July 12-13 prediction.

The above predictions are from forecasters Thompson and Kiser at the
USAF space weather group.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere June 30 to July 06, 2023 from F.K. Janda OK1HH.

"In the solar X-ray field during June we could observe the most
significant solar flare so far: X1 in the active region AR3341. It
happened on June 20 at 1709 UTC near the southeastern limb of the
solar disk. In the region where the Sun was high, it caused the
Dellinger Effect, https://bit.ly/3NA61kT .

"The same sunspot group was also the source of the M4.8 flare two
days later. It ejected a CME, but not toward Earth.

"Nevertheless, its passage close to Earth probably caused an
increase in geomagnetic activity on the evening of 24 June.
Theoretically, it could also have been a CME from the X1 eruption of
20 June.

"On June 26, we were surprised by sunspot group AR3354 just above
the solar equator and east of the central meridian. It did not exist
the day prior. Over the next two days its area grew to ten times the
size of the Earth, making it easily observable by the naked eye.

"Significantly, its magnetic configuration changed to
beta-gamma-delta, which is enough energy for powerful solar flares.

"The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled so far.

"AR3354 will be pointed directly toward Earth in the next few days,
so it looks like the next disturbance could begin on July 1. And of
course, a possible large flare could cause a Dellinger Effect
throughout the whole HF spectrum."

Pat, W5THT wrote:

"I have been an active ham since 1956 and on the Mississippi coast
since 1971. This year has strengthened my belief in an old
observation.
ÿ
"There is/was a dome of high pressure that moved from over Texas to
now over me. Before it moved east, I was able to take part in the 6
meter propagation to Europe.

"Since it moved over me, the DX Maps page shows a gap in the DX
propagation from northern Florida to central Louisiana.ÿ This is not
the first time I have seen it happen, but the new generation of TV
weather persons presented a picture of the dome of high pressure
that coincided with my propagation observations. Suspicions
confirmed?

"Years ago, on 2 meters I noticed that propagation followed weather
fronts up the east coast. Thanks for reading this and perhaps
someone younger than me has already done the research."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Wow -- a surprise opening on 6 meter FT8 to Brazil June 25!

"A CME impact at 1900 UTC may have boosted the TEP MUF Sunday
afternoon. That and some help with sporadic-E -- opening to Brazil
on 6 meters from North America during the summer.

"Had been out with our dog. Saw WQ0P PSK flags for PY2XB. Turned on
radio at home with dipole. PY2XB was loud. Really loud. Also copied
PY5CC. He spotted me as well, but no QSO. PY2XB in for almost half
an hour. Like a pipeline. Saw him work a few 5s and 0s. KC0CF worked
CE2SV. With higher solar activity, the TEP zone still works even in
our summer. This mode works for D2UY (Angola), 3B9FR (Rodrigues
Island in Indian Ocean), and ZL."

An article on Solar Cycle 25 peak and nice images:

https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI[2]

Understanding Space Weather: A Glossary of Terms:

https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ[3]

"Astro Bob" on that big sunspot:

https://bit.ly/46rC3YU[4]

Frequent contributor David Moore shared this fascinating article
comparing the current big sunspot with the one that launched the
infamous Carrington Event 164 years ago.

https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC[5]

Another Solar Cycle article:

https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y[6]

Yet another Carrington Event article:

https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o[7]

Article about Solar max:

https://bit.ly/44jM5tP[8]

A Houston Chronicle article on solar max:

https://bit.ly/445vtWf[9]

Flares and how they are measured:

https://bit.ly/3prvtRs[10]

A video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from last week:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs[11]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[16]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19] .

Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2023 were 176, 194, 200,
180, 158, 141, and 141, with a mean of 170. 10.7 cm flux was 173.2,
169.7, 160.8, 154.8, 157.7, 151.2, and 154.9, with a mean of 160.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 9, 16, 15, 11, 8, and 8, with
a mean of 10.7. Middle latitude A index was 8, 9, 16, 10, 11, 7, and
8, with a mean of 9.9.

ÿ


[1] http://spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3ps6iOI
[3] https://bit.ly/3XuimeQ
[4] https://bit.ly/46rC3YU
[5] https://bit.ly/3CUGZYC
[6] https://bit.ly/3XvIk1y
[7] https://bit.ly/3XuSe3o
[8] https://bit.ly/44jM5tP
[9] https://bit.ly/445vtWf
[10] https://bit.ly/3prvtRs
[11] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfXz9nk6NDs
[12] k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[18] http://k9la.us/
[19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/07/2023

The average daily sunspot number for June, 2023 was the highest in 21 years, according to Spaceweather.com.

From a July 3 email alert from Spaceweather.com:

"SUNSPOT COUNTS HIT A 21-YEAR HIGH:ÿ It's official:ÿ The average sunspot number in June 2023 hit a 21-year high.ÿ Solar Cycle 25 has shot past its predecessor, Solar Cycle 24, and may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century."

Could we see another Cycle 19, the biggest in recorded history, even back before the birth of radio?

Not too long ago, we heard that this cycle should peak in summer 2025.ÿ Later that was revised to 2024.ÿ Now I am seeing occasional references to a cycle peak at the end of this year. ÿ

From my own records, average daily sunspot numbers for April through June 2023 were 93.7, 125.8 and 143.9, a nice upward trend.

Some popular news outlets seem confused by the difference between sunspot number and number of sunspots, and have quoted another higher average.

Here is the difference.ÿ If they are just counting the total number of sunspots for the month, this is far different from average daily sunspot numbers.ÿ The sunspot number is somewhat subjective, but it gets ten points for each sunspot group, and one point for each sunspot in those groups.

But I stand by my numbers.ÿ They are all from NOAA and appear at the end of each bulletin.

But they may be referencing International Sunspot Number, which may be different from the SESC numbers from NOAA.

Here is an example of confusing sunspot numbers with number of sunspots: https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl[1]

This one is also confusing, saying there were 163.4 sunspots in June. https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym[2]

But what does this mean?ÿ It could be either 163 or 164 sunspots, but not a fractional number, unless it expresses an average.ÿ The minimum sunspot number is 11.ÿ This would be one sunspot group containing one spot.ÿ They are always whole, not fractional integers.

There was one new sunspot region (group) on June 30, three more on July 1, one more on July 2, another on July 4, and one more on July 5.

Sunspot and solar flux data again this week did not track together. Average daily sunspot number declined from 170 to 126.1, while average daily solar flux rose slightly from 160.3 to 164.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with average daily planetary A index declining from 10.7 to 7.3, and middle latitude averages from 9.9 to 8.

Predicted solar flux is 155 on July 7, 150 on July 8 to 10, then 155 on July 11, 160 on July 12 to 13, 175 on July 14 to 18, 170 on July 19 to 21, 160 on July 22 and 23, 155 on July 24 and 25, 160 on July 26 and 27, 165 on July 28 and 29, then 170, 170 and 165 on July 30 through August 1, 155 on August 2 to 6, then 160, 165 and 170 on August 7 to 9, and 175 on August 10 to 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on July 7 to 9, 5 on July 10 and 11, then 20 and 30 on July 12 and 13, 8 on July 14 to 22, 5 on July 23 to 30, 8 on July 31 through August 1, then 5 on August 2 to 4, 12 and 8 on August 5 and 6, then 5, 20 and 30 on August 7 to 9, and 8 on August 10 to 18.

Note those big numbers are about one solar rotation apart, which is about 27.5 days.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 6, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.ÿ When the current 25th solar cycle began in December 2019, solar astronomers thought it would be a weak cycle similar to its immediate predecessor, solar cycle 24.ÿ But now we have a twenty-one year peak.ÿ And we expect a continued increase for about two more years.

The misfortune is that ongoing global changes are reducing the ionization rate of the ionosphere.ÿ Yet the current conditions for shortwave or decameter wave propagation do not match the amount of solar activity - they are worse.

But that's not all.ÿ Not only is solar cycle 25 likely to rival some of the more powerful cycles of the 20th century, but we're likely to see even more powerful solar flares and magnetic storms.ÿ History repeats itself cyclically, and we need only think of the great Halloween storm of 2003, including the strongest solar flare ever recorded in X-ray (X45).

The giant sunspot group AR3354 (only about four times smaller than the giant sunspot group of early September 1859) made its last appearance on July 2 with an X-class flare.ÿ Two days later it eclipsed.

We won't lose the source of the stronger flares, however - the growing AR3359, with its Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, crossed the central meridian toward active western longitudes on July 6 and will continue to grow.ÿ With its predicted higher activity, we could see an increase in the Earth's magnetic field activity as early as the middle of next week.

Tamitha Skov, from July 1.ÿ https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ[3]

Blackoutÿ http://bit.ly/46tTRT8ÿ https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz[4]

Stormy weekend?ÿ https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] .ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation .ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11]

Sunspot numbers for June 29 through July 5, 2023 were 112, 187, 119, 126, 117, 121, and 101, with a mean of 126.1.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 162.2, 158.6, 165.5, 170.2, 173.2, 167.2, and 154.6, with a mean of 164.5.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 8, 5, 5, 5, 4, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 6, 8, 7, 5, and 9, with a mean of 8.


[1] https://bit.ly/3NCQCAl
[2] https://bit.ly/3PMu6Ym
[3] https://youtu.be/HR8mm30oxOQ
[4] https://bit.ly/3rhbjdz
[5] https://bit.ly/3pDrT6R
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/14/2023

ÿ"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0713UT/13 JULY 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A glancing CME impact is expected late on 13-July and another CME impact is expected early on 15-July. These impacts present the possibility of geomagnetic storm activity over 13-15 July."

We saw a welcome rise in solar activity this reporting week, July 6-12. Referencing the previous seven days, average daily sunspot numbers rose from 126.1 to 181.9, while average daily solar flux increased from 164.5 to 179.4. On July 13 the solar flux was 202.9, well above the average for the previous seven days.

Geomagnetic indicators did not change much, average planetary A index going from 7.3 to 8.6 and average daily middle latitude A index from 8 to 8.1.

The most active day was July 7 when University of Alaska's college A index was 40.ÿ The middle latitude A index on that day was only 11. The college A index is from a magnetometer in Fairbanks.

What is the outlook for the next month?

Predicted solar flux looks great over the next few days, at 200, 202, 198, 200, and 204 on July 14-18, 202 on July 19-21, 160 on July 22-23, 155 on July 24-25, 160 on July 26-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, 170 on August 5, 175 on August 6-7, 170 on August 8, then 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, 170 on August 15-17, and 160 on August 18-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 on July 14, 5 on July 15 through August 2, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 3-5, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on August 6-10, 5 on August 11 through the end of the month.

On July 12, Spaceweather.com reported: ÿ

"A new hyperactive sunspot is producing M-class solar flares every few hours. This is causing shortwave radio blackouts around all longitudes of our planet. If current trends continue, an X-flare could be in the offing."

See Spaceweather.com for updates.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere July 14-20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"Over the past week, we were surprised by two large groups of spots that appeared on the eastern limb of the solar disk.

The first of these, AR3363, emerged in the southeast. Although it remained large, there was nothing significant going on. Its opposite was AR 3372 a few days later, which produced moderate-sized flares almost daily.

In both cases, helioseismic echoes from the sun's far side suggested that it may be the leading edge of a large active region.

But there was no indication that these would be areas with a diametrically different type of activity.

The images of the two groups of spots were large enough to be observed by the Mars rover Perseverance. Because of Mars' position, it saw them a few days earlier than a terrestrial observer. For the record: Perseverance observes the Sun daily, but mainly so that it can tell from the drop in brightness that a Martian dust storm is approaching.

AR3372 activity is increasing, while on July 11 and 12 several M-class solar flares (some with CMEs) have already occurred (X-class flare appeared to be imminent). In particular, it was almost certain that the Earth's magnetic field activity would increase in the following days. The probability of magnetic storms increased significantly as AR3372 rotated more and more toward the Earth."

Carl, K9LA had comments on the OK1HH report from last week.ÿ "There have been many papers in recent years that have looked at the trends in ionospheric parameters over the past decades. Although the changes are small, they do show up in ionosonde data after much math to eliminate solar activity and geomagnetic field activity. These results show both positive and negative trends in the F2 region electron density, likely due to neutral atmosphere dynamics and electrodynamics that could give regional differences.

An interesting paper in 2008 Geophysical Research Letters modeled the increased levels of CO2 (global warming) in the atmosphere versus the impact on the ionosphere.

See: https://bit.ly/3OaThCC[1]

They used 2000 as the baseline with 365 ppmv of CO2, and doubled the amount of CO2 for the year 2100. Their results showed that electron densities in the E and F1 region would increase a couple percent in 2100 while the height of the E region peak would decrease a couple km. In the F2 region, the electron density would decrease by several percent in 2100 while the height of the F2 region would decrease 10 or so km."

Thanks to reader David Moore for this, on aurora hype:

https://bit.ly/44ovzsh[2]

Flare video (with music.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ[3]

Huge sunspot:ÿ https://bit.ly/44EcqTz[4]

Tamitha Skov reports:ÿ https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8]

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[10] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12]

Sunspot numbers for July 6 through 12, 2023 were 149, 147, 167, 183, 181, 227, and 219, with a mean of 181.9. 10.7 cm flux was 157.6, 161.4, 160.5, 179.2, 190.6, 213.5, and 193.3, with a mean of 179.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 18, 8, 4, 5, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.6. Middle latitude A index was 11, 16, 6, 4, 6, 8, and 6, with a mean of 8.1. ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3OaThCC
[2] https://bit.ly/44ovzsh
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aghiHieqCZQ
[4] https://bit.ly/44EcqTz
[5] https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[10] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[11] http://k9la.us/
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/21/2023

Average daily sunspot numbers declined, but average daily solar flux increased. Sunspot averages were 181.9 last week, and 130.6 this week.ÿ Average daily solar flux increased from 179.4 to 190.5.

Two new sunspot groups emerged on July 14, three more on July 17 and another two on July 19.

Average daily planetary and middle latitude A index were both 12.9 this week, rising from 8.6 and 8.1.

Predicted solar flux is 185 on July 21-23, then 180, 178, 175 and 170 on July 24-27, 165 on July 28-29, 170 on July 30-31, 165 on August 1-4, then 170, 175, 175 and 170 on August 5-8, 165 on August 9-11, 170 on August 12, 175 on August 13-14, and 170 on August 15-19, 160 on August 20-23, 165 on August 24-25, then 170 on August 26-27 and 165 on August 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 20, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 21-25, 5 on July 26 through August 2, then 10 and 8 on August 3-4, 5 on August 5-14, then 12, 8 and 8 on August 15-17, and 5 on August 18-29.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for July 20, 2023 from OK1HH.

"We've seen another seven days of mostly moderate solar activity, with almost daily eruptions of moderate magnitude on the Sun.ÿ Some of these have been the source of CMEs.ÿ If the Earth has been affected by them, a geomagnetic disturbance followed, with a drop in MUF and a worsening of HF propagation in the process.

As predicted, the expected CME hit the Earth's magnetic field on the afternoon of 14 July (as part of the Bastille Day celebrations, but not nearly as strongly as in 2000).

Another CME left the Sun on 14 July, and yet another on July 15. Because the cloud of later ejected solar plasma was faster, it cannibalized the previous CME.ÿ Together, they hit the Earth on July 18.

But by then AR3363 had already produced a significant long-lasting M6-class solar flare, and energetic protons accelerated by this flare reached the Earth and caused a radiation storm.ÿ Although MUFs were quite high, HF conditions were adversely affected by frequent occurrences of attenuation.

Another CME hit the Earth on 20 July, registered by the Earth's magnetic field at 1708 UTC.

Further developments were predicted up to G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storms, with a small probability also of G3, but by then this report will have been completed and sent out.

Finally, just a little note on the consequences of global change: it has been manifested in the last eleven-year cycles, in the Earth's troposphere it is the result of warming, but in the ionosphere it is rather the opposite.ÿ It has been the subject of a number of scientific papers in recent years.

It is crucial for us, for amateur radio practice, that the current MUFs are lower than those calculated from sunspot counts for most of the twentieth century.ÿ Therefore, we should input Ri (or solar flux SFU) into forecast programs lower than what is currently measured and published.

F.K. Janda, A.R.S. OK1HH http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/[1] ÿ"

News from N8II in West Virginia.

"The bands are in much better shape than most hams realize; activity levels are normally quite low this summer.ÿ In the IARU contest I observed 15M open to Europe through 0300 UTC and I had QSOs with Indonesia, China, Nepal, Japan, Central/Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and the Philippines in the 2300-0300 UTC period.ÿ I copied GR2HQ (Great Britain HQ station) on 10M CW at 0140 UTC.ÿ At 1100 UTC on 15M EU and Central/West Asia were very loud and I started running a pile up on CW.

The Far East was also in on 15M around 1400 UTC Saturday when I worked a loud Japanese station.

During the evening/night EU signals were extremely loud on 20M.ÿ I also worked a few EU on 10M 1300-1400 UTC Saturday thanks to Sporadic E and also caught Z30HQ (Macedonia HQ) on 10M CW Sunday about 1130 UTC.ÿ I worked 697 QSOs concentrating on DX on the high bands in less than 12 hours with 100 W.

Africa is workable on 10-15M well into our evening as are South Pacific stations.

Sporadic E this year seems somewhat attenuated, but Es was good from here and great from the Central/Western USA during the June VHF contest.ÿ I made about 170 CW/SSB QSOs."

CNN presented a smart piece on the sunspot cycle peaking sooner than expected. https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6[2]

Double peaked flare.ÿ https://bit.ly/46ZoznE[3]

Astronomy club observes sunspots.ÿ https://bit.ly/46SaacR[4]

Aurora.ÿ https://bit.ly/44FxM2U[5]

Scientific American.ÿ https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB[6]

Early peak.ÿ https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF[7]ÿhttps://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj[8]

Cannibal eruption.ÿ https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W[9]

Great video of eruption.ÿ https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA[10]

The latest from Space Weather Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw[11]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[13] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[14] ÿ.ÿ For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[15] ÿ.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[16]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[17] ÿ. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[18]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[19]

Sunspot numbers for July 13 through 19, 2023 were 146, 141, 96, 99, 149, 142, and 141, with a mean of 130.6.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 202.9, 180.6, 178.5, 184.3, 180, 218.5, and 188.9, with a mean of 190.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 20, 8, 10, 24, 16, and 5, with a mean of 12.9.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 9, 17, 9, 13, 19, 16, and 7, with a mean of 12.9.


[1] http://ok1hh.nagano.cz/
[2] https://bit.ly/3rzNJJ6
[3] https://bit.ly/46ZoznE
[4] https://bit.ly/46SaacR
[5] https://bit.ly/44FxM2U
[6] https://bit.ly/3rHzGkB
[7] https://bit.ly/44Aa7AF
[8] https://bit.ly/3rEa0Wj
[9] https://bit.ly/3Q5dv1W
[10] https://youtu.be/YOzHHM4B4gA
[11] https://youtu.be/KsKDVOuboyw
[12] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[14] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[15] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[16] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[17] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[18] http://k9la.us/
[19] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

07/28/2023

ÿAverage daily sunspot numbers declined slightly over the past week (July 20-26) to 128.1, compared to 130.6 over the previous seven days.

Average daily solar flux declined significantly from 190.5 to 172.2.

The solar flux forecast sees values at 165 and 162 on July 28-29, 158 on July 30-31, then 155 on August 1-3, then 165, 170 and 175 on August 4-6, 180 on August 7-10, 175 on August 11-13, 180 on August 14-15, 175 on August 16-18, 170 on August 19, then 165, 165 and 160 on August 20-22, and 155 on August 23-26, 160 on August 27, 165 on August 28-30, 170 and 175 on August 31 through September 1, and 180 on September 2-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on July 28-29, 15 and 10 on July 30-31, 5 on August 1-3, 8 on August 4, 5 on August 5-9, 10 on August 10, 8 on August 11-13, 5 on August 14-19, then 10, 8 and 5 on August 20-22, 12 on August 23-24, 10 on August 25-26, 5 on August 27-29, 10 and 8 on August 30-31, and 5 on September 1-5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- July 27, 2023 from OK1HH.

"The likelihood of more massive solar flares has slowly decreased in recent days as large groups of spots have fallen behind the western limb of the solar disk and the magnetic configuration of the ÿremaining regions has become increasingly simple over the past few days.

On July 20 and 21, two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field in accordance with the prediction. However, both impacts were weak and did not produce even a minor geomagnetic storm.

Another weak halo CME was expected to leave the Sun on 23 July at about 1530 UTC in a C5 class flare in spot group AR3376, coinciding with the outburst of a relatively nearby magnetic filament. The Earth's magnetic field detected its arrival at 0200 UTC on 26 July. The result was an increase in geomagnetic activity and a deterioration of shortwave propagation conditions. The disturbance actually started on 25 July at 2235 UTC, but it was not clear whether it was an early arrival of the same CME or another one that we did not detect.

Note: since I will be abroad next week, I will not post the next comment on August 3, but on August 10."

Sunspots, flares and aurora.ÿ https://bit.ly/44JxcRp[1]

Mars Rover sees the far side of the sun.ÿ https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b[2]

Rocket punches hole in ionosphere.ÿ https://bit.ly/3KceBFB[3]

Nearly five decades ago I witnessed the same thing, viewed from Marin County, California. It was a huge dramatic display, My friend had seen it before, and said it was created by a rocket launch from Vandenberg AFB in Southern California.

Another CME.ÿ https://bit.ly/44LhRjx[4]

On July 27, Spaceweather.com sent this alert:

"A STRONG FARSIDE CME JUST HIT SOLAR ORBITER: Europe's Solar Orbiter just got hit by the kind of CME that may have once caused a major power blackout on Earth. This time, Earth was not in the line of fire. It was a farside eruption that flew away from our planet. Maybe next time?"

Massive flare?ÿ https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC[5]

Latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov.ÿ https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE[6]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[8] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[9] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[10]

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[11]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

Sunspot numbers for July 20 through 26, 2023 were 131, 121, 103, 117, 141, 137, and 147, with a mean of 128.1ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 184.3, 172.8, 174.4, 172.5, 165.1, 169, and 167.4, with a mean of 172.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 13, 9, 6, 7, 11, and 21, with a mean of 11. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 9, 5, 8, 12, and 23, with a mean of 11.1.


[1] https://bit.ly/44JxcRp
[2] https://bit.ly/3KbRV8b
[3] https://bit.ly/3KceBFB
[4] https://bit.ly/44LhRjx
[5] https://bit.ly/3Ya7OSC
[6] https://youtu.be/cD5VbWvBXsE
[7] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[9] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[10] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[11] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/18/2023

Eleven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, August 10-16, but average solar indicators declined.

There were two new sunspots groups on August 11, three more on August 13, another on August 14, two more on August 15, and three more on August 16. On August 17 another new one appeared.

But average daily sunspot numbers declined from 108.9 to 95.7, while average daily solar flux dropped from 166.4 to 154.2.

Predicted solar flux is 150, 155, and 157 on August 18-20, 160 on August 21-22, then 162, 165, 162, 160 and 164 on August 23-27, 168 on August 28-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, then 158, 155, 152 and 150 on September 4-7, and 148, 142, 140 and 130 on September 8-11, 135 on September 12-14, and 145, 150, 155, 158 and 160 on September 15-19, 162 on September 20-21, then 160 and 164 on September 22-23, and 168 on September 24-27.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on August 18-19, 5 on August 20-25, 12 on August 26, 5 on August 27 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-11, then 12, 15, 12 and 8 on September 12-15, 5 on September 16-21, 12 on September 22, and 5 on September 23 through the end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 18-24, 2023 from OK1HH:

"Solar activity has declined, both spot and flare. We have usually observed C-class solar flares, although the configurations of some active regions did not preclude the formation of M-class flares. We expect an upsurge in solar activity in the last five days of August, after which more sunspot groups should appear at the eastern limb of the solar disk.

The Earth's ionosphere was quite sensitive to the increased influx of protons in the accelerated solar wind on 11 August and again on 16-17 August. Propagation improved on August 14-15 and worsened on August 16. I do not expect any other surprises before the end of the month."

Bil Paul, KD6JUI, who often reports HF operations from his kayak, wrote:

"I recently returned from a vacation at Lake Tahoe where I was running 10 watts into an end-fed half-wave wire vertical. The rental place was surrounded by extra-tall pine trees, but the base of the antenna was 30 feet above the ground on a high porch.

My discovery (on the evenings of August 7 and 9, around 8 p.m. Pacific Coast time) was that CW DX was coming in on the 30-meter band. On the 7th, I contacted OV1CDX in Denmark on that band (and heard him again on subsequent nights). On the 9th, I contacted 6B2A in Egypt, who was coming in a solid S4.

I had a couple other CW DX twilight/early-night contacts on 15 and 20 meters, but the 30 meter contacts surprised me."

N4KZ reports from Frankfort, Kentucky:

"Last week, I began copying SSB signals from Europe on the 10 and 12-meter bands.ÿ They were weak but readable. It was the first time I've heard SSB signals on those bands from that part of the world in many months. Then, on August 15th beginning at 1248 UTC, I worked stations across Europe and the Middle East on 12-meter SSB with strong signals.

About 20 minutes earlier, I tuned across the 10-meter phone band and only copied one signal. It was S79VU, Ravi, in the Seychelles. He was about S5 and working Europeans who I did not copy. But he came back to me on my first call. We've worked before but this was our first 10-meter QSO. It's only mid-August, but perhaps autumn propagation is beginning to emerge and with the continuing high sunspot count, I hope this marks the start of better HF conditions this fall and winter. I run about 800 watts into a multi-band Yagi with 3 active elements on each band. The antenna is up 55 feet. I live on a hilltop with a steep slope toward the north which has proven over the years to be an advantage.

On July 1, I once again became active on the low-end of 2 meters doing weak-signal work. I was quite active on SSB and CW on the low end throughout the 1980s and '90s and to a lesser extent until about 2010. I worked 40 states from Kentucky but eventually decided to concentrate on HF and 6 meters. But I missed 2 meters and now I have returned.

There's less SSB and CW than there used to be but quite a few are operating FT8 on 144.174 MHz which does a nice job with weak signals. So far I have worked 15 states and Ontario. Morning propagation a couple hours after sunrise allows for 300-400 mile QSOs routinely on FT8. And I've copied stations from Colorado, Long Island, NY and Connecticut on meteor scatter while using MSK144. After a 12-year hiatus from 2-meter weak-signal work, it's good to be back."

AA6XE in Fremont, California wrote:

"Interesting conditions on 10 meters although not that unusual. In the last couple of days propagation into the Pacific Northwest has materialized. A bunch of Beacons have surfaced. Beacons from

Portland to well north of Vancouver BC are coming in every afternoon. I heard Tad Cook's (K7RA) 10 meter beacon yesterday (Aug 13). Beacons out of Mexico have been coming in on 10 Meters for over a month. Some of those beacons are located as far South as Veracruz. Beacons from Australia have been coming through on most days over the last month. NCDXF beacons VK6RBP in Western Australia and 4S7B in Sri Lanka were heard on 15 Meters for a few days.

While propagation on 10 to the Pacific Northwest may not seem like much I recognize it as a marker that the days of summer propagation are numbered. Typically this doesn't happen until the last 2 weeks in August so it appears to be early this year. So like the Crocuses popping up in late February it doesn't do much for one aside from reminding us that better times are on the way.

As to what we can expect this Fall it looks to be much improved over last year and at the peak of Cycle 24. The 90 day mean SFI currently stands at 166. Last year at this time 90 day mean stood at 114. The 90 day Mean SFI for the peak of Solar Cycle 24 was 155.ÿ The 90 Day Mean made a significant run-up during late Spring early Summer increasing 21 points. For the last 5 weeks the Daily SFI has been sliding. It hasn't dropped enough to impact the 90 and 81 Day Mean Values just yet, but if the decline continues those numbers will sag.

The rising phase of SC25 has its own characteristics. The solar flux rises rapidly for 4 to 8 weeks followed by an extended period of decline for 2 to 3 months. This makes it difficult to see the overall trend. It even faked out a number of heliophysicists who made the call that SC 25 had peaked in February 2023. The latest predictions call for SC 25 to peak at year-end 2023/2024. A few are calling for SC 25 to peak at mid-year 2024. It would be a pleasant surprise if the next surge kicks off a few weeks early, say by the first days of September. That would make a big impact of the conditions we can expect on 6 Meters this Fall."

The latest from Tamitha Skov: https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg[1]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[2] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.


For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service at:

http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3] .

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see:

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[5]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at:ÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] .

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

Sunspot numbers for August 10 through 16, 2023 were 83, 105, 61, 89, 85, 107, and 140, with a mean of 95.7ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 155.7, 152.8, 148.3, 150.4, 154, 158.1, and 160.1, with a mean of 154.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 8, 5, 5, 4, and 8, with a mean of 6. Middle latitude A index was 8, 6, 10, 7, 6, 7, and 10, with a mean of 7.7.


[1] https://youtu.be/zjldvH1NYxg
[2] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

08/25/2023

Five new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on August 17, another August 18, two more on August 21 and another on August 22. ÿ

ÿAverage daily sunspot numbers rose slightly, while average daily solar flux declined. Average daily sunspot numbers went from 95.7 to 105.9 and average daily solar flux declined from 154.2 to 149.4.

No big geomagnetic events this week, and average daily planetary A index changed from 6 to 8.4 while average daily middle latitude index went from 7.7 to 10.1.

Predicted solar flux is 145 on August 25-26, 150 on August 27, 155 on August 28-29, 160 on August 30-31, then 165, 163 and 160 on September 1-3, 162 on September 4-5, 158 on September 6-7, then 160 and 162 on September 8-9, 158 on September 10-11, 155 on September 12, 152 on September 13-15, 153 on September 16-18, 155 on September 19, and 158 on September 20-23, 162 on September 24-25, 165 on September 26-28, then 163 and 160 on September 29-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on August 25, then 5, 10 and 8 on August 26-28, 5 on August 29 through September 5, then 10, 8 and 8 on September 6-8, 5 on September 9-13, 12 on September 14, 10 on September 15-17, and 5 on September 18 through the end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere August 25-31, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

Although solar activity has been rated as low over the last seven days, let's not be misled by an assessment based mainly on the number and importance of flares. Solar activity continues to increase toward the peak of cycle 25, expected in two years. Projected into the highest usable ionospheric F2 layer frequencies, this means that we may finally be able to look forward to a wide opening of the ten-meter band for DX shortwave contacts. If it occurs during this fall, we can expect the 25th cycle maximum to be quite high after all.

It was pretty quiet over the weekend as all eight sunspot groups had stable magnetic fields. Despite another large sunspot appearing in the meantime, apparently magnetically connected to another sunspot on the other side of the solar equator, there was still not much going on. Only the M1.1 0 class solar flare on August 22 at 2304 UTC was an exception. But although it lasted long enough to carry a CME out of the solar atmosphere, it evidently did not.

On August 23, a filament erupted near the southwest limb of the Sun. If it envelops the Earth, it would likely not happen until August 27, with a possible G1 class storm.

Max White, M0VNG sent this about solar wind: https://bit.ly/3YQToa7[1]

Reader Jeremy Gill of Seattle, WA contributed this article on aurora and the ionosphere: https://bit.ly/44sRGgh[2] ÿ.

Warnings about solar activity, some a bit shrill:

https://bit.ly/3qHy6za[3] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3YLsoc[4]ÿ

https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3[5] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3OJRCTP[6]

A new video from Tamitha Skov:ÿ https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] ÿ. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] ÿ.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[12]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at:

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] .

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]
.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for August 17 through 23, 2023 were 135, 112, 104, 93, 102, 96, and 99, with a mean of 105.9.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 151.9, 150.6, 150.6, 146.3, 148.7, 150.9, and 147, with a mean of 149.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 11, 8, 11, 9, 8, and 4, with a mean of 8.4.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 8, 12, 10, 12, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.


[1] https://bit.ly/3YQToa7
[2] https://bit.ly/44sRGgh
[3] https://bit.ly/3qHy6za
[4] https://bit.ly/3YLsoc
[5] https://bit.ly/3QNx8w3
[6] https://bit.ly/3OJRCTP
[7] https://youtu.be/lU8s7RmlSfE
[8] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/01/2023

First, this alert from Australia.

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0706UTC/31 AUGUST 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A filament eruption and associated coronal mass ejection (CME) were observed on UT day 30-Aug. This CME is expected to impact Earth from 1800 UT +/- 12 hours on 02-Sep, with impacts possibly rolling into UT day 03-Sep. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over this time, with a chance for periods of G3."

Solar activity was down again this week, with average daily sunspot numbers dropping from 105.9 to 78.7, and average daily solar flux from 149.4 to 140.9.

Only three sunspot groups appeared, one each on August 25, 28 and 30.

But I have noticed a gradual transition from summer toward fall conditions, with 10 and 12 meter openings more frequent. The autumnal equinox is only three weeks from now.

Geomagnetic indicators were a little lower. Average planetary A index went from 8.4 to 7, and average middle latitude numbers from 10.1 to 8.9.

What is the outlook?

Predicted solar flux shows a peak around 168 on September 18-21.

Forecast values are 140 on September 1, then 150, 150 and 145 on September 2-4, 150 on September 5-9, 147 on September 10-11, then 145, 150, 155, 150, 155 and 160 on September 12-17, 168 on September 18-21, then 165, 160, and 148 on September 22-24, 150 on September 25-26, then 152, 150, 145,and 140 on September 27-30, then 145 on October 1, 150 on October 2-3, 152 on October 4, 156 on October 5-6, 150 on October 7. and 148 on October 8-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 35 on September 1-3, then 15, 10 and 8 on September 4-6, 5 on September 7-13, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on September 14-17, 5 on September 18-22, then 10, 10 and 8 on September 23-25, 5 on September 26 to October 2, then 10, 8 and 8 on October 3-5, and 5 on October 6-10.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere for September 1-7, 2023 from OK1HH.

"On 27 August, we predicted a rise in geomagnetic activity, triggered by the arrival of particles from the filament solar flares three days earlier. It did occur, but to a lesser extent than we expected. No significant solar flare (at least of M-class) was observed until 25 August, which is somewhat surprising for the current phase of Cycle 25 development.

We did not see a major flare until August 26 at 2250 UTC, and it was an M1-class solar flare, hidden behind the Sun's eastern edge, but it was a long duration eruption (LDE). It was accompanied by a CME, which of course was not heading toward Earth, but in this case Mars (which it should hit on September 1).

The coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on August 29 at about 1748 UTC near the coordinates N05W35. Another major solar flare, C3, was observed on August 30 with a maximum at 2334 UTC at AR 3413.

Prior to that, a filament of solar plasma disappeared near S18W24 at 2015 UTC.

Still, we expect only a slight increase in Earth's magnetic field activity in the next few days.

Ionospheric propagation has varied erratically, with partial credit due to the sporadic E layer that occurred irregularly in Earth's northern hemisphere late this summer."

India's solar mission:ÿ https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N[1]

Flares:ÿ https://bit.ly/47X6gzC[2]

Four hours of Tamitha Skov and extreme space weather events:

https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs[3]

This weekend is the phone portion of the All Asia DX Contest:

https://bit.ly/43GPrXq[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[6] and the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[7] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see: ÿ

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf[9]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] ÿ.

Sunspot numbers for August 24 through 30, 2023 were 86, 77, 75, 69, 68, 82, and 94, with a mean of 78.7.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 144.1, 138.9, 139.3, 141.5, 141.7, 142.2, and 138.6, with a mean of 140.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 5, 7, 11, 6, 5, and 6, with a mean of 7. Middle latitude A index was 9, 7, 9, 13, 8, 7, and 9, with a mean of 8.9.


[1] https://bit.ly/3PiPJ1N
[2] https://bit.ly/47X6gzC
[3] https://youtu.be/_Li9wxmmbQs
[4] https://bit.ly/43GPrXq
[5] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[7] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[8] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[9] https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/08/2023

At 0046 UTC on September 8, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting
Centre issued this alert:

"A solar filament erupted from the north east quadrant of the Sun on
07-Sep. Event modeling shows an edge of the associated north east
directed CME may graze the Earth's magnetosphere on 10-Sep.
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOR 10 SEPTEMBER 2023."

Eight new sunspot groups emerged this week, one on September 2, two
on September 3, two more on September 4, and one each on September
5-6, followed by another on Thursday, September 7.

Average daily sunspot number was up, from 78.7 to 95.4, while
average daily solar flux was less, from 140.9 to 137.6.

Geomagnetic activity was higher. On September 2 the planetary A
index was 38, when Earth moved through a high speed solar wind. In
Alaska, the college A index at Fairbanks was 59.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 7 to 15.4, and
average middle latitude A index rose from 8.9 to 16.3.

Predicted solar flux is 155, 158 and 155 on September 8-10, 150 on
September 11-16, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on September 17-20, 145
on September 21-22, 150 on September 23-24, 145 on September 25, 140
on September 26-27, 135 on September 28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and
135 on October 1-4, then 140 on October 5-6, then 135, 135 and 140
on October 7-9, 145 on October 10-11, 150 on October 12-13, then
155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17.

Predicted planetary A index 10 and 12 on September 8-9, 8 on
September 10-13, then 5, 8, and 12 on September 14-16, 8 on
September 17-18, 5 on September 19-22, 12 on September 23, 5 on
September 24-27, then 8, 12, 5 and 12 on September 28 through
October 1, then 12, 10, 12 and 10 on October 2-5, and 5 on October
6-10, then 10, 8 and 12 on October 11-13, and 8 on October 14-15,
and 5 over the following week.

I observed interesting 12 meter propagation using FT8 on September
4, at 1745 UTC with https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html[1] in which my
signal was only received over a narrow 300 mile band hugging the East
Coast from Maine to Florida, all signal reports between 2200 to 2500
miles away, nowhere else.

Three hours later at 2045 UTC, the reports along the coast expanded
to 600 miles, 2000 to 2600 miles wide.

Later at 2300 UTC it was the same pattern, but a 200 mile band,
2300-2500 miles wide.

The next day at 1700 UTC it was an arc from Virginia to South Texas,
1700 to 2300 miles. At 1715 UTC it drifted to coverage of 1750 to
2600 miles.

Before FT8 and pskreporter, there was no practical way for me to
observe any of this. Who knew?

Rick Cochran, WO8L wrote:

"So, despite all of the indicators being pretty good, why are the
bands so terrible?

"In the nearly 60 years I've been a ham this Sun cycle has
consistently been a dud compared to past cycles, especially during
the day.

"So many of us would like to know why."

I replied:

"Good question. You aren't the only one to ask."

There is a theory that carbon in the atmosphere or a warming climate contributes to this, but I do not understand the mechanism. K9LA
told me that models do not support this, but at the moment I cannot
recall what those models are. This issue was discussed in previous
bulletins.

Another theory is that this is a perception issue related to the
widespread adoption of FT8, in which users of traditional modes see
less activity on CW and SSB and perceive poorer propagation as a
result.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 7, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:
ÿ
"In late August, as AR3413 approached the northwestern limb of the
solar disk, its eruptive activity began to increase, even though its
size and magnetic configuration did not suggest it. However, we
observed it at a very low angle, so we may have missed details.

"Either way, it was the source of several C- and M-class flares, at
least two of which (on August 30 and September 1) ejected CMEs. Both
hit the Earth triggering a G2 class geomagnetic storm. For shortwave propagation, this meant a significant improvement and increase in
MUF in the positive phase of the disturbance on 2 September
0900-1300 UTC, followed by a deterioration for the next few days.

"AR3413 meanwhile, continued with increased eruptive activity on the
Sun's far side, including a massive CME on 5 September, but it no
longer affected the Earth. It merely 'ripped off the tail' (a
disconnection event) of comet Nishimura (C/2023 P1), which is
approaching the Sun. Its closest approach will be on September 17.

"A relative improvement in shortwave propagation did not occur until
September 5, with a jump in solar wind speed at 1439 UTC. Meanwhile,
active region AR3421 began to grow significantly around the central
meridian.

"The magnetic configuration points to the possibility of
geoeffective flares. This was followed by the growth of other active
regions in the northeast of the solar disk, so that solar activity
remains elevated. Since we expect the Earth's magnetic field to calm
down, shortwave propagation conditions should gradually improve.
Seasonal changes as the equinoxes approach will also contribute to
this."

The Autumnal Equinox in the northern hemisphere is just two weeks
away.

Here is a solar cycle prediction:

https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n[2]

Nice video, once you get past the ads:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71[3]

A "Solar Orbiter EUI" video from Max White, M0VNG and the European
Space Agency:

https://bit.ly/44JG2hr[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for August 31 through September 6, 2023 were 77, 83,
77, 79, 100, 121, and 131, with a mean of 95.4ÿ 10.7 cm flux was
139.9, 135.8, 131.2, 130.5, 136, 142.9, and 147.1, with a mean of
137.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 38, 25, 8, 11, and
8, with a mean of 15.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 15, 25, 28,
14, 14, and 10, with a mean of 16.3.


[1] https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html
[2] https://bit.ly/45Gxb1n
[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8nub71
[4] https://bit.ly/44JG2hr
[5] k7ra@arrl.net
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/15/2023

Like last week, eight new sunspot groups emerged this reporting
week, September 7-13.

One appeared on September 7, another September 9, four more on
September 10, another on September 11 and one more on September 12.

Solar activity made a nice comeback, with average daily sunspot
numbers rising from 95.4 to 138.1, and solar flux from 137.6 to
159.9.

The most active geomagnetic day was September 12, when the planetary
A index was 25. Spaceweather.com reported a "stealth CME"
(unexpected) that had aurora visible down as far as Missouri.

Average daily planetary A index decreased from 15.4 to 10.4, and
middle latitude numbers from 16.3 to 11.3.

The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere is just a week away,
on September 22.

It seems that the next sustained short term peak in solar flux is a
few weeks off, with values between 150 and 155 over October 12-17,
although it is expected to reach 150 on September 23-24.

The forecast shows solar flux at 145, 148, 145 and 145 on September
15-18, 140 on September 19-21, 145 on September 22, 150 on September
23-24, 145 on September 25, 140 on September 26-27, 135 on September
28-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 1-4, 140 on October
5-6, 135 on October 7-8, 140 on October 9, 145 on October 10-11, 150
om October 12-13, then 155, 150, 155 and 150 on October 14-17, 145
on October 18-19, and 150 on October 20-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 15, 8 on September
16-17, then 5, 5, and 10 on September 18-20, 5, 8 and 12 on
September 21-23, 5 on September 24-27, then 8, 12 and 8 on September
28-30, and 5 on October 1-8, then 15, 12, 10 and 8 on October 9-12,
5 on October 13-19, 12 on October 20, and 5 on October 21-24.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 15-22, 2023 from OK1HH.
ÿ
"A week ago, the active sunspot group AR3414 dominated the solar
disk. It is now on the far side of the Sun. This role has been taken
over by AR3423, now approaching the western limb of the solar disk.
It will be followed the next day by the slightly smaller AR3425. The
important information is that we observe a coronal hole near both of
them (closer to AR3425). This configuration was the likely cause of
the surprise: Few people expected the Earth to be hit by a CME on
September 12 at 1237 UT.

"Then a massive disturbance of the Earth's magnetic field developed.
Its initial positive phase increased the MUF values on September 12.
This was followed by a negative phase, which in turn caused a
significant decrease in MUF, with worsened shortwave propagation
conditions on 13 September. This was followed by a gradual
improvement on 14 September, when the magnetic filament connecting
sunspots AR3423 and AR3425 erupted. The consequence could be a G1 to G2 class geomagnetic storm in the Earth's vicinity on 17 September."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote from Kansas:

"Sunday afternoon and evening (September 10-11) strong sporadic-E on
6 meters took place.

"This set up links to TEP on to South America.

"The hot spot seemed to be south Central Kansas and northeast
Oklahoma. KF0M in EM17 worked many South American stations. From
EM28, the Es was not lined up that well.

"Had many strong stations in south Texas and northern Mexico.
Around 2250 UTC LU1MQF (FF55) and CE4MBH (FF44) appeared for a few minutes on 50.313 MHz FT8.

"Any sporadic-E is a treat in the September ARRL VHF contest (which
was last weekend). With Solar Cycle 25 picking up, the Es can link
to TEP."

An article about the Sun from IFLScience:

https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653
[1]
The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3] .When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[4]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[7] .

Sunspot numbers for September 7 through 13, 2023 were 135, 123, 119,
167, 173, 141, and 109, with a mean of 138.1.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was
160.8, 160.9, 161.4, 163.9, 176.4, 153.5, and 142.6, with a mean of
159.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 6, 8, 4, 7, 25, and 17,
with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 11, 8, 12, 6, 8,
17, and 17, with a mean of 11.3.

ÿ


[1] https://www.iflscience.com/has-part-of-the-sun-really-become-broken-70653 [2] https://youtu.be/S2IOBwSo_LI
[3] k7ra@arrl.net
[4] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/22/2023

ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0249UTC on 22 SEPTEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

"Solar wind streams from a pair of coronal holes are expected to
mildly increase geomagnetic activity at times during the interval
late 22-Sep to 24-Sep.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM 22-24 SEPTEMBER 2023."

Nine new sunspot groups appeared this week, but the averages were
lower.

A new sunspot group appeared every day from September 15-17, four
more on September 18, and one each day on September 19-20.

On Thursday, the start of the next reporting week two more sunspot
groups appeared.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 138.1 to 118.4, while
average daily solar flux went from 159.9 to 149.3.

The Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere occurs on Saturday,
September 23 at 2:50 AM EDT, or 0650z.ÿ The change in seasons has
been evident recently with improving propagation on 10 and 12
meters.

A fast moving CME hit Earth on September 18, sparking dramatic
displays of aurora across the northern tier of North America and in
Europe as far south as France.

Alaska's college A index was 49 and 61 on September 18-19, while the
planetary A index was 30 and 49.

Predicted solar flux is 162, 162 and 165 on September 22-24, 160 on
September 25-28, 135 on September 29-30, then 130, 135, 130 and 135
on October 1-4, 140 on October 5-6, 135 on October 7-8, then 140,
145 and 145 on October 9-11, then 150, 150, 155 and 150 on October
12-15, and 155, 150, 145 and 145 on October 16-19, then 150, 150 and
145 on October 20-22, 140 on October 23-24, 135 on October 25-27,
then 130, 135, 130 and 135 on October 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 15 on September 22, 22 on September
23-24, then 12 and 8 on September 25-26, 5 on September 27-28, 12
and 8 on September 29-30, 5 October 1-11, 8 on October 12, then 5 on
October 13-19, 12 on October 20, 5 on October 21-24, then 8, 12 and
8 on October 25-27, then 5 on October 28 into the first week of
November.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 21, 2023 from OK1HH:
ÿ
"Although the site https://solarham.net/ [1]launched on March 15, 2006,
created and still maintained solely by Kevin,VE3EN, is primarily
intended for amateur radio users, it is also very well regarded by
professional astronomers. In addition to information about the Sun,
it contains everything needed to understand the causes of changes in
the ionosphere, and also provides an overview and forecast of the
Earth's magnetic field activity. On Thursday, September 21, we read:
'Solar activity is predicted to remain at low (C-Flares) to moderate
(M-Flares) levels during the next 24 hours. AR-3435 is considered
the most likely region to produce a moderate to strong solar flare.'

"The information can be supplemented by saying that the level of
solar activity has been rising in recent days, and this rise was
accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 400 km/s to over
600 km/s between 18-20 September. In particular, the solar wind
proton influx increased significantly on 18 September; moreover, a
geomagnetic disturbance with intensity G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong)
took place on 18-19 September.

"The Earth's ionosphere responded to these events with a significant
decrease in MUF, especially since 18 September. Shortwave conditions
were above average for the last time on 10-12 September, including a
positive phase of the disturbance on the latter day. Around the
equinox we usually expect improvement, but now it was the opposite
as a result of disturbances.

"As another very good source of information, I can particularly
recommend the Space Weather Monitor (https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm[2]), as it also
contains the most important data on the Earth's ionosphere."

From reader David Moore, on Parker Solar Probe:

https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E[3]

More Parker Solar Probe news:

https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl[4]

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for September 14 through 20, 2023 were 110, 96, 88,
94, 139, 143, and 159, with a mean of 118.4.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was
145.2, 139.1, 140.4, 144.6, 154.5, 166.1, and 155.5, with a mean of
149.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 7, 7, 16, 30, 49, and
16, with a mean of 20.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 7, 5, 14,
21, 38, and 15, with a mean of 18.1.

ÿ


[1] https://solarham.net/
[2] https://www.ionosonde.iap-kborn.de/actuellz.htm
[3] https://bit.ly/3ELWC5E
[4] https://bit.ly/3EOVEpl
[5] https://youtu.be/pU6i_2FVR2g
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

09/29/2023

Solar activity was up for this reporting week, September 21-27.
Eight new sunspot groups appeared, two on September 21, two more on
September 22, two more on September 25, another on September 26 and
another on September 27.

The average daily sunspot number jumped from 118.4 to 170.6, while
average daily solar flux went from 149.3 to 168.8.

The Autumnal Equinox was last weekend in the Northern Hemisphere, so
our Earth is bathed in equal amounts of solar radiation in both
hemispheres.

The average daily planetary A index went from 20.4 to 17, while
middle latitude numbers changed from 18.1 to 13.7. Thursday had the
strongest geomagnetic activity, and Alaska's college A index was 68,
triggering a geomagnetic storm with aurora visible across the
northern tier of the United States. Activity peaked around 1200-1800
UTC, with planetary K index at 5.33.

Regarding solar flux predictions, the next predicted peak is at 168
on October 20-23.

Predicted flux values are 148 on September 29-30, then 145, 143 and
145 on October 1-3, 148 on October 4-5, 155 on October 6, 160 on
October 7-8, 155 on October 9, 150 on October 10-11, 145 on October
12-14, then 150, 155, 155, 160 and 165 on October 15-19, 168 on
October 20-23, then 164, 160, 160, 168 and 150 on October 24-28,
then 145 and 150 on October 29-30, 155 onÿ October 31 through
November 2, 160 on November 3-4, and 155 on November 5.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12, and 8 on September 29 through
October 1, then 8, 15, 12, 8 and 15, on October 2-5, then 5 on
October 6-21, then 10 and 8 on October 22-23, and 5 on October 24
through November 7, and 55 on November 8.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - September 27, 2023 from OK1HH:
ÿ
"During September we saw nearly regular fluctuations in solar and
geomagnetic activity. M-class flares occurred nearly every day, some accompanied by plasma eruptions (CMEs). On 24-25 September, the
fourth and strongest solar-origin proton cloud (G3) of the month
struck Earth.

"With such a large number of disturbances, each lasting several
days, there was a significant decrease in MUF and a general
deterioration of shortwave propagation (September 3-5, 13-15, 18-20
and since 25 September).

"After these disturbances, due to the high solar activity,
relatively rapid improvements followed, the best of which was
observed from 10 September onward. It culminated in a positive phase
of disturbance during the daytime hours of UTC on 12 September, with
the highest MUF values, and thus the best opening of the upper
shortwave bands. This also made the following deterioration, which
started already on the night of 13 September, even more noticeable.

"Given the number and duration of disturbances and despite several improvements, overall propagation was below average. This pattern
began in August and given the trend in solar activity, looks set to
continue for the time being."

Gregory Andracke, W2BEE sent these two articles about Aurora
Borealis:

https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q[1]

https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj[2]

Check out his web site:

http://www.andracke.com/[3]

Here are more articles and videos about aurora:

https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4[4]

https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy[5]

https://bit.ly/48ASMtK[6]

https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ[7]

https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX[8]

https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk[9]

https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V[10]

https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw[11]

https://bit.ly/469xDFw[12]

https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA[13]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[14]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[15] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[16] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[17]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[18] .

Sunspot numbers for September 21 through 27, 2023 were 159, 184,
198, 172, 164, 179, and 138, with a mean of 170.6. 10.7 cm flux was
168.1, 175.7, 173, 173.7, 170.2, 164.9, and 156, with a mean of
168.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 10, 21, 23, 32, and
15, with a mean of 17. Middle latitude A index was 10, 7, 9, 17, 15,
26, and 12, with a mean of 13.7.

ÿ


[1] https://nbcnews.to/3PUVH9q
[2] https://bbc.in/3PQLhrj
[3] http://www.andracke.com/
[4] https://bit.ly/3PEnsl4
[5] https://bit.ly/3PU22Sy
[6] https://bit.ly/48ASMtK
[7] https://bit.ly/46w7CzQ
[8] https://bit.ly/3PXAGuX
[9] https://bit.ly/48A6Kfk
[10] https://bit.ly/3PBgE7V
[11] https://bit.ly/3PzOJFw
[12] https://bit.ly/469xDFw
[13] https://bit.ly/3rvgRBA
[14] k7ra@arrl.net
[15] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[16] http://k9la.us/
[17] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[18] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/06/2023

At 2308 UTC on October 5, the Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning.

"A recent, mild CME impact, combined with the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream on 7 Oct, gives the chance for G1 geomagnetic conditions over 6 and 7 Oct."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, but overall solar activity declined.

With consecutive dates you can initiate an animation using the back and forward buttons on your browser.

We are currently enjoying improved HF propagation with the change of seasons after the autumnal equinox.ÿ This is particularly noticeable on 12 and 10 meters.

Here is an optimistic news story about the current solar cycle.

https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/[1]

https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1[2]

One new sunspot group appeared on September 30, three more on October 1, and one on each of the following days, October 2, 3 and 4.ÿ On October 5, two more sunspot groups appeared, and the daily sunspot number shot up to 179, the highest since September 26. Previously, a high of 219 was on July 12.

Average daily sunspot number declined from 170.6 to 128.6, while average daily solar flux went from 168.8 to 155.6.

Geomagnetic indicators were quieter.ÿ Average daily planetary A index went from 17 to 9.1, and average daily middle latitude A index declined from 13.7 to 8.9.

The outlook for the next month has predicted solar flux at 158 on October 6 and 7, 155, 152, 152, 150 and 145 on October 8 to 12, 158 on October 13 and 14, 156 on October 15 to 17, 154 on October 18 to 20, 152 on October 21, 154 on October 22 and 23, 156 and 158 on October 24 and 25, 160 on October 26 to 28, 162 on October 29 to 31, then 164 on November 1 to 3, 168 on November 4, 165 on November 5 and 6, 162 and 160 on November 7 and 8, 158 on November 9 and 10, and 156 on November 11 to 13.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 25, 10 and 5 on October 6 to 9, 8 on October 10 and 11, 5 on October 12 to 21, then 10 and 8 on October 22 to 23, 5 on October 24 to 28, then 15, 12, 8, 15 and 8 on October 29 through November 2, and 5 on November 3 through the middle of the month.

Flares in the news:

https://bit.ly/46AiGMs[3]

https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3[4]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere -- October 5, 2023 from Frantisek K. Janda, OK1HH.

"After witnessing a number of solar flares (though at most of moderate magnitude) during the past month, plus three solar plasma cloud impacts (CMEs), late September and early October, which were a bit quieter.

However, the development of solar and especially geomagnetic activity was so irregular that it was difficult to make predictions for the following days.
The geomagnetic calm on 28 September did not mean an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions, but rather a deterioration compared to the previous day, which was not calm.ÿ The improvement on 2 and 3 October was the result of a relative calm with non-declining solar activity.

Subsequent developments were mostly quieter.ÿ Nevertheless, there were significant fluctuations in MUF on 4 October with a slight deterioration.ÿ The explanation for the causes can be found mainly in the timing of the overall development.ÿ Specifically, deterioration often occurred after geomagnetic activity increased overnight.ÿ In addition, sporadic layer E activity increased at times (especially on 4-5 October).ÿ There was also a slight increase in the concentration of protons in the solar wind on 3 October and especially still on 5 October.

Irregular propagation conditions can be expected to continue, yet there should already be less of a difference between expectations and actual developments in October than there was in September."

W2BEE sent this about aurora: https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU[5]

Time lapse animation of sunspot:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg[6]

Max White M0VNG sent this, about the solar atmosphere:

https://bit.ly/3ZJydau[7]

Check these links for the upcoming HamSCI propagation tests during upcoming solar eclipses, the first on October 14, 2023:

https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse[8]

http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023[9]

New report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM[10]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[11] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation ÿ.ÿ More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[12]

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[13]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[14]

Sunspot numbers for September 28 through October 4, 2023 were 109, 102, 106, 136, 146, 150, and 151, with a mean of 128.6.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 147.8, 155, 159.1, 161.1, 157.4, 153.7, and 155, with a mean of 155.6.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 12, 10, 9, 9, 8, and 10, with a mean of 9.1.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 5, 13, 11, 9, 10, 6, and 8, with a mean of 8.9.


[1] https://cdapress.com/news/2023/oct/02/were-strong-solar-cycle/
[2] https://bit.ly/3RMPjT1
[3] https://bit.ly/46AiGMs
[4] https://bit.ly/3PG9MX3
[5] https://bit.ly/3ZHLUGU
[6] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8ofnhg
[7] https://bit.ly/3ZJydau
[8] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
[9] http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLX013/2023
[10] https://youtu.be/_eWJ8THt3pM
[11] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[12] http://k9la.us/
[13] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[14] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/13/2023

The numbers looked better during this reporting week, October 5-11.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 128.6 to 144.1, and average
solar flux from 155.6 to 159.1.

Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 7.6, and average
middle latitude A index from 8.9 to 8.3.

For some reason the middle latitude numbers were not available from Fredericksburg, Virginia so we used the data from Boulder, Colorado.

Nine new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 5,
one on October 7, two on October 8, one on October 9, another on
October 10, and two more on October 11.

HF conditions have been excellent, as the season turns deeper into
Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. I really notice a difference on
10, 12 and 15 meters.

Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 13, 155 on October 14-16, 152
on October 17-18, then 150, 148, 150 and 152 on October 19-22, 152
on October 23-24, 158 on October 25, 160 on October 26-28, 158 on
October 29-30, 156 on October 31 through November 1, then 155, 156,
156, 158 and 160 on November 2-6, 158 on November 7-8, then 156 on
November 9-10, then 155, 154, 152 and 150 on November 11-14, 148 on
November 15-16, then 150, 152, 154 and 154 on November 17-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 5, 12, 10 and 8 on October
13-19, 5 on October 20-30, 15 and 12 on October 31 through November
1, 5 on November 2-5, then 10, 8, and 10 on November 6-8, 15 on
November 9-10, then 8 on November 11, and 5 on November 12 to the
end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere October 13-19, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Unlike most days in September, the Earth's geomagnetic activity has
finally dropped. Solar activity is high enough that there was a
significant improvement in shortwave propagation on a global scale.

"Around October 7, although there was still a possibility that Earth
would be hit by a CME that left the Sun on October 3, it did not
happen. Whereupon, especially on quiet days in the middle of this
week, the improvement was unmistakable.

"Two or three sunspot groups continue to be observed on the Sun.
They are able to produce up to moderate intensity flares. But the
area of the spots is not large, so we do not expect a CME based on
their magnetic configuration either.

"Thanks to helioseismology, we know of more extensive active regions
on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, it is safe to assume that
solar activity will be elevated for the rest of October. Which of
course brings with it possible increases in solar wind speeds with
higher particle concentrations, but this is not enough to predict a disturbance, only to vaguely state the possibility of one."

Dan, K7SS wrote:

"Just an FYI to those of us who may know anyone new to HF, and the
fact that 10m seems to be at a fantastic peak of conditions
recently, it would be a great shame for anyone who is new to HF to
miss this peak (or pre-peak?) with 10m so open during the daylight
and well into the evening darkness. Just recall the thrill of DX you
had early on.

"Would like to encourage everyone [in the club] to think about who
they might know that's pretty new and give a gentle prod to get them
on 10m. Even with a minimal antenna and power, the band is
supporting signals around the world right now. This may be our peak,
or perhaps this is a bellwether of things to come and may get even
better, but maybe not!

"If any tech licensee can get on 10m with even a minimal signal, it
will not disappoint. 28300 to 28500 kHz is theirs, and the
playground is full. And no place better to get the DX BUG than by
working some EU with low power and a small wire or vertical antenna.
NOW IS THE TIME.

"You don't want to have to explain in a year or two from now, that
they SHOULD have been on working DX and if not, may have to wait for
another cycle peak in 12-14 years.

"Personally, I'm having the time of my life with EU openings in the
morning around 10AM-12PM local. The THRILL IS BACK! 10m Lives."

An article about a 15,000 year history of extreme solar events:

https://bit.ly/3FctowT[1]

Commercial space companies approach their first solar maximum:

https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma[2]

Korean records from the 14th to 19th centuries reveal sunspot cycle
history:

https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af[3]

Safely watch the eclipse with a disco ball. (I do not know if this
is actually safe):

https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz[4]

Articles about the "Ring of Fire" solar eclipse:

https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY[5]

https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc[6]

An article about the Sun's polarity flip:

https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF[7]

Video about Sunspot AR3038:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl[8]

Optimistic outlook on Aurora:

https://bit.ly/46tIOcb[9]

Don't forget the eclipse event this Saturday, October 14:

www.hamsci.org/eclipse[10]

And at the last minute Thursday night, a new video from Dr. Tamitha
Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw[11]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[12]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for October 5 through 11, 2023 were 179, 138, 145,
149, 129, 120, and 149, with a mean of 144.1. 10.7 cm flux was
156.1, 155.3, 157.2, 157.1, 165.5, 164.4, and 158, with a mean of
159.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 9, 5, 7, 8, 4, and 4,
with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 4, 10, 9, 6,
and 4, with a mean of 8.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3FctowT
[2] https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma
[3] https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af
[4] https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz
[5] https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY
[6] https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc
[7] https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF
[8] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl
[9] https://bit.ly/46tIOcb
[10] https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse
[11] https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw
[12] k7ra@arrl.net
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/20/2023

Sunspot activity dropped dramatically this week, with only two new
sunspot groups emerging, on October 14 and 16.

Compared to last week, the average daily sunspot number slipped from
144.1 to 89.4, and average daily solar flux from 159.1 to 145.1.

Average daily planetary A index changed from 7.6 to 6.4, and average
daily middle latitude A index from 8.3 to 5.

Predicted solar flux is 128 and 130 October 20-21, 132 on October
22-23, 134 on October 24-25, 136 on October 26, 145 on October
27-28, 150 on October 29 through November 5, 140 on November 6-9,
135 on November 10-11, 145 and 140 on November 12-13, 135 on
November 14-15, then 140 on November 16-18, 135 and 140 on November
19-20, 145 on November 21-24, and 150 through the end of the month.

Predicted planetary A index is 22, 14, 12, 10 and 8 on October
20-24, 5 on October 25-26, 8 on October 27-30, 10 and 12 on October
31 through November 1, 5 on November 2-8, 12 and 8 on November 9-10,
5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, then 10 and 8 on November
15-16, 5 on November 17-22, and 8 on November 23-26.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - October 19, 2023 from OK1HH:
ÿ
"In the last ten days, the number of sunspot groups has dropped from
ten to three. At the same time the solar flux has dropped
significantly - from 166 to 135. The last two slightly larger solar
flares were observed on 16 October. The larger of the two occurred
in AR3467. The magnetic filament associated with it exploded and
blew a CME into space.

"According to NASA's models, while it didn't head directly for
Earth, it still likely hit it on October 18 (the original estimate
was that it would happen a day later). Which, while not enough to
cause a geomagnetic storm, was enough to reach an 'unsettled' state.

"This was followed by an erratic MUF from 18 October and then a
decline on 19 October. These lines are written at a time when short
periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are not yet ruled out on 19
October, with a possible duration into the first half of 20 October
UT.

"A return of larger sunspots and a rise in solar flux towards 150
can be expected by the end of the month."

Regarding 10 meter comments by K7SS in last week's Propagation
Forecast bulletin, Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo-Alto, Puerto
Rico responded, "I second Dan's, K7SS comments on getting on the air
even if you are a Tech on 10 meters.

"I can attest that the band is in good shape: Can contact European
stations with ease even if my antenna is pointing to the US and when
it is 2pm local can still contact them when they are at their local
8-10 pm.

"My score in contests recently reflect more QSOs on 10 meters and
now that we are in contest season it is a great opportunity to get
on the air and see how many countries you can work.

"You can also check and hear SSTV signals on 28.680 MHz as of late
confirming that the band is truly live. And of course, the FM
(29-29.8 MHz) segment."

Dr. Julio Medina, NP3CW wrote:

"Sending some information of activity in 6M band since May to
October 2023.

"Been copying stations from Japan, China, Africa, and many others
such as Philippines on FT8 early in the morning from 1200-1400 UTC
in FT8 in the 6m band."

Jon, N0JK wrote on October 6:

"The 6 meter sporadic-E - linking to TEP (trans equatorial
propagation) openings usually occur in the afternoon. But there was
a late evening Es -- TEP opening on October 6.

"Earlier in the afternoon October 6 I had some weak TEP from South
America to Kansas.ÿ It faded out around 0030 UTC. Then some
sporadic-E took place. Sporadic-E is rare in October, the only month
with less Es is March. That itself is noteworthy, and I logged
stations in Arizona and northern Mexico starting at 0100 UTC October
7 on 6 meter FT8. Then at 0133 UTC I began seeing a FT8 trace at
2,500 Hz. Then it decoded, and was Dale, CE2SV (FF47) sending a
report to W0SZ in Colorado. When they finished, I called CE2SV.
After a couple of calls Dale came back and we completed a contact at
0136 UTC. His signal varied from -10 dB to -17 dB.

"What is remarkable is I was operating from home using just an attic
dipole for an antenna. I also decoded CE3SOC and XQ3MCC. N0LL in
EM09 also worked some South American stations. This was 'evening'
TEP, which typically has a shorter range than afternoon TEP. The
evening TEP signals usually have a distinctive 'TEP flutter' sound
and sometimes don't decode with FT8.ÿ Q65 can be a better digital
mode for evening TEP.

"I saw on the ON4KST 6 meter chat page N9PGG in North Carolina
worked FK8HA and VK4 stations. This was a sporadic-E link (on the
same Es I had to the south) out to the South Pacific.

"On another note -- stations in Central America, the Caribbean and
northern South America have been making 6 meter Long Path contacts
with east Asia and Malaysia from 1200 - 1600 UTC the last couple of
mornings.

"6 meter long path is best with high solar flux and low geomagnetic
activity.

"2023-10-07 15:16 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0MZI (OI33JQ) LoTW eQSL 18626 km ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
"2023-10-07 15:00 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0SAS (OI33JS) LoTW eQSL 18623 km ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
"2023-10-07 14:54 9Z4Y (FK90HM) 50.313.0 FT8 YB0COU (OI33IU) LoTW eQSL 18611 km ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
"2023-10-07 14:52 JA6GNL (PM53GO) 50.310.0 FT8 PJ4MM (FK52VE) LoTW 14545 km

"FT8 CQ AS:

"2023-10-07 14:38 PJ4MM (FK52VE) 50.313.0 FT8 4W/JH2EUV (PI21) LoTW 18502 km +12"

A video about predicting Solar Flares (Helioseismology):

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24[1]

A video about a Class X2 flare:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2[2]

A video about a Cannibal CME:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk[3]

A report about Solar Cycle history:

https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN[4]
ÿ
The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 12 through 18, 2023 were 126, 91, 100,
92, 106, 57, and 54, with a mean of 89.4. 10.7 cm flux was 157.1,
149, 148.2, 144.6, 144, 137.3, and 135.3, with a mean of 145.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 8, 4, 4, 3, and 9, with a
mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 6, 2, 3, 2, and 8,
with a mean of 5.

ÿ


[1] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxp24
[2] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oxpu2
[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oumkk
[4] https://bit.ly/3FpTqwN
[5] https://youtu.be/8xHnsvBFTgE
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

10/27/2023

The recent solar activity decline continues. Weekly average daily
sunspot numbers starting with Propagation Forecast bulletin ARLP039
on September 21 were 170.6, 128.6, 144.1, 89.4, and 41.9 for this
week.

Weekly average daily solar flux for the same period was 168.8,
155.6, 159.1, 145.1 and 123.5.

On October 25 Spaceweather.com[1] noted "Solar Cycle 25 roared to life
in 2021-23, dashing predictions of a weak solar cycle. Forecasters
have since been expecting a robust Solar Max in 2024 or 2025.
Suddenly, however, sunspot counts are dropping."

But they note that in strong sunspot cycles temporary lulls are
common, and strong activity should resume soon, with a cycle peak
within the next two years.

Forecasters provided a recent link to NOAA:

https://bit.ly/3FyVWko[2]

The next day they wrote, "NOAA has just issued a revised forecast
for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Max is coming quicker and stronger than
previously thought."

From NOAA:

https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update[3]

Three new sunspot groups appeared this week over October 20-22.

What is the outlook for the next month?

Predicted solar flux is 126 on October 27-28, 130 on October 29-30,
132 on October 31, 134 on November 1-2, 150 on November 3-5, 140 on
November 6-9, 135 on November 10-11, then 145, 140, 135 and 135 on
November 12-15, 140 on November 16-18, then 135 and 140 on November 19-20, and 145 on November 21-24, and 150 on November 25 through December 2.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 8, 5, 20, 18 and 8 on October 27
through November 1,ÿ then 5 on November 2-8, then 12 and 8 on
November 9-10, 5 on November 11-12, 12 on November 13-14, 10 and 8
on November 15-16, 5 on November 17-22, then 8 on November 23-26,
and 10 and 12 on November 27-28, and 5 on November 29 through
December 5.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere from F.K. Janda, OK1HH on October 26, 2023.

"In the last seven days we observed two surprises. For the first
time, after the solar flare of 16 October, we saw a geomagnetic
disturbance on 19 October. But it started on October 18 and
continued to October 20.

"Solar activity gradually decreased, M-class flares ceased, and only
isolated C-class flares continued. By October 23 only two or three
small groups of spots remained on the solar disk.

"On October 21, the Earth's magnetic field activity briefly
increased, which, together with a multi-day decrease in solar
radiation, caused low MUF values and thus shorter intervals of upper
shortwave band openings.

"The geomagnetically quiet development on 22-25 October caused only
a gradual improvement in shortwave propagation conditions. In
addition, the daily MUF values were relatively very low.

"Then, on the 26th, the Earth's magnetic field activity increased.
Positive phase of disturbance started in the daytime UT, accompanied
by an increase in MUF (with a maximum around 1300 UT).

"I don't expect any significant rise in solar activity in October.
It is indeed forecast for November, but even the STEREO satellites,
in service for 10 years, have not yet observed more interesting
activity."

N0JK wrote:

"The weekend of Oct 20-22 had some outstanding propagation on 6
meters.

"Saturday afternoon October 21 there were Es links to TEP
(Trans-Equatorial Propagation) on toward the South Pacific from the
Midwest. N0LL copied FK8CP and ZL1RS on just a hamstick vertical
while driving from Salina to his home in Smith Center, Kansas. He
later worked E51WL from his home around 2130 UTC.

"I was staying at the La Quinta Inn in Scottsdale for the weekend.
Had my MFJ-9406 along and used a dipole antenna in the hotel room. I
copied N0LL in EM09, N0KQY in DM98 and N0OT in DM88 on 6 meter Es
calling DX stations around 1945 UTC. Es in October are rare, and Es
links rarer still.

"Later that evening I managed to work W5JAY in EM26 on 6m FT8 via Es
at 0136 UTC October 22. Power was 7 watts to the indoor dipole. East
coast stations were working the South Pacific on Es links to TEP.

"That next afternoon Arizona had Es - link to TEP to South America.
I copied XE1H in DL80 at the first Es hop.

"At 2333 UTC on October 22 on 50.313 Rx FT8 copied XE1H in DL80
calling CQ.

"October 24 at 2335 UTC copied PY5CC in GG54 via Es link to TEP.

"Spaceweather.com[4] noted a CME impact October 20. The active
geomagnetic field boosted the TEP MUF and may have sparked some of
the sporadic-E as well.

"73, Jon, N0JK in DM43 (usually EM28)."

From Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW in Easton, Pennsylvania.

"Two New Continents on 10 meters 29.600 FM.

"The upper end of the 10 meter band (29.600 FM) is still kind of
rough, but on Wednesday, October 18th, 1752 UTC I worked Naama, S01A (Sierra-Zero-One-Alpha) in Western Sahara, Africa, grid IL56hb, RS:
5x9+ peak both ways. Distance 3607 miles.
ÿ
"His QRZ page:ÿ https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A[5]

"Then on Monday, October 23rd, 2206 UTC worked Hirobumi, JF7AWV in
Kouriyama, Japan, grid PM95vq calling CQ, went back to his call and
he heard me RS: 5x5, he was a RS: 3x3 moderate QSB. Distance 6502
miles.
ÿ
"Just a reminder to operators, please use the ITU Phonetic Alphabet.
It makes picking out your callsign much more rapidly with less
confusion under weak propagation conditions.

"Equipment: Kenwood TS-690S, 80 watts, Cushcraft 10-Meter Ringo 5/8
wave vertical 10 feet off ground."

And I have a reminder to FM operators on 29.6 MHz.

This is the national simplex calling frequency and gets quite busy.
When making contact, I ask the other station to QSY to a simplex
frequency, such as 29.2 MHz. [K7RA]

Latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8[6]

Note that this weekend is the SSB portion of the CQ World Wide DX
Contest.

See https://www.cqww.com/[7] .

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12] .

Sunspot numbers for October 19 through 25, 2023 were 39, 56, 65, 48,
25, 34, and 26, with a mean of 41.9. 10.7 cm flux was 128.7, 125.7,
122.6, 118.8, 122.1, 121.1, and 125.8, with a mean of 123.5.
Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 8, 22, 8, 3, 4, and 4, with a
mean of 8.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 8, 13, 7, 2, 2, and 3,
with a mean of 6.1.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3FyVWko
[3] https://www.weather.gov/news/102523-solar-cycle-25-update
[4] http://Spaceweather.com
[5] https://www.qrz.com/db/S01A
[6] https://youtu.be/vJ2yz7ZHSj8
[7] https://www.cqww.com/
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/03/2023

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2333 UTC on 02 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A possible glancing impact from a CME first observed on 31-Oct
combined with a glancing impact from a CME first observed on 2-Nov
is expected to produce a chance of G1 geomagnetic activity on 4-Nov
and G0-G1 activity on 5-Nov."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged in this reporting week, October 26
through November 1. Two on October 26, one on October 27, another on
October 28, two more on October 31 and another on November 1. One
more appeared on November 2.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 41.9 to 76.7, while average
daily solar flux increased from 123.5 to 137.5.

Predicted solar flux is 158, 160, 162, 158 and 155 on November 3-7,
150 on November 8-9, 148, 136, and 134 on November 10-12, 130 on
November 13-15, then 125, 123, and 120 on November 16-18, then 125
on November 19-22, and 130 on November 23-26, then 132 on November
27, 134 on November 28-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138. 136 and
134 on December 7-9 and 130 on December 10-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12, 8 and 5 on November 3-7, 12
on November 8-9, 8 on November 10, 5 on November 11-13, then 8 and
10 on November 14-15, 5 on November 16-21, then 15, 10, 15, 15, 20,
15 and 8 on November 22-28, 5 on November 29 through December 5,
then 12 and 8 on December 6-7 and 5 on December 8-10.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 03, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The coronal hole we saw in the northwest of the solar disk has
already fallen beyond its limb. Now we're looking at another fairly
large coronal hole in the southeast. At the same time, both sunspot
and flare activity decreased in the west and increased in the east. Fortunately, the solar wind from the eastern half of the disk rarely
reaches the Earth's neighborhood. Therefore, the frequency of
geomagnetic disturbances is lower.

"This is valid for most days in the first half of November. As the
solar activity could also increase, we can expect more stable and
overall, slightly better shortwave propagation. After that, however,
the solar flux will gradually return from 160 perhaps to somewhere
near 120. Therefore, MUF values will begin to slowly decline.

"As long as the coronal hole remains stable and persists in the
solar disk after passing through the central meridian, disturbances
will become more frequent. Therefore, shortwave propagation will
gradually deteriorate, but no reliable forecast can be made very far
ahead."

From Dave, N4KZ in Frankfort, Kentucky, EM78:

"At 1545 UTC on October 7, I experienced the thrill of a lifetime
when 3B9FR, Robert on Rodrigues Island in the Indian Ocean, answered
my CQ on 6-meter FT8. I had already worked 3B9FR 10 times over the
last 20 years on CW, SSB and FT8 on various HF bands but I never
anticipated working him on 6 meters.

"The morning began when I worked HC5VF at 1534 UTC with a very
strong signal. Hearing nothing else from the south, I turned my Yagi
toward Europe hoping perhaps someone there would decode my CQ. After
six unsuccessful CQs, Robert called me. I took a screenshot of our
QSO. I plan to have it framed for the shack wall. According to his
QRZ.com page, Robert runs 75 watts to a new 6-element quad on 6
meters. I was running 250 watts to a 3-element Yagi at 60 feet.

"On October 23, from 2059 to 2359 UTC, I worked 18 South Americans
on 6-meter FT8. Stations worked were in Argentina, Uruguay and
Brazil. Then the band changed around to the Pacific and for the
first time in some 30 years on 6 meters, I copied stations in
Australia. I decoded five stations in VK4, two in New Caledonia and
3D2AG in Fiji. Sadly, despite numerous calls, I did not work anyone
in the Pacific that day. But it was still a thrill to hear those
entities for the first time on 6 meters. And of course, the QSO into
the Indian Ocean, at a distance greater than 10,000 miles, made up
for it.

"I was very active on 2-meter SSB and CW from the mid-1970s until
about 2010 when I grew bored and took down my 2-meter Yagi. Earlier
this year, I felt the urge to return to the low end of 2 meters.
This time, FT8 seems to mostly have replaced SSB and CW for
weak-signal work. Since June 28, I have worked 30 states and 102
grid squares with my new 13-element Yagi.

"The big five-day tropo opening in August produced more than 160
QSOs from Colorado to Connecticut. In the middle of the afternoon
toward the end of that August opening, I decoded both ends of a QSO
between WQ0P in KS and W1VD in CT, I had worked both of them
earlier, but it was really something to watch them working over
about a 1,500 mile path."

From Bob, KB1DK:

"Conditions on 10 meters were fair for the CQWW SSB contest this
past weekend. While propagation was good from Connecticut to the
Middle East, south and central Europe, signals from Scandinavia, and north/central Russia were barely readable. This was in sharp
contrast to the conditions on the weekend of October 14th when I
worked 45 stations with strong signals in the Scandinavia Contest on
Saturday morning.

"On October 15th, I operated mobile for the first time. Using an old
Kenwood TS-570 and a quarter wave vertical magnetically mounted on
the roof, I logged 28 QSOs in 2 hours including South Africa,
Greece, South Russia and Scandinavia with respectable reports from a
fixed hilltop location. It was well worth the effort to wire up the
car. I did not want to miss out on the great propagation on 10
meters, especially after the conditions this past spring and last
fall.

"If you have an old rig, consider investing for a magnetic mount and
a 10 meter whip. You won't be disappointed. My next operating
location will be from the beach on Long Island Sound.

"All the best from the east coast."

K7SS reported to the Western Washington DX Club that he worked 10
meters only in the CQ World Wide SSB DX Contest, with 643 QSOs in 28
zones and 75 countries for a claimed score of 177,984 points.

Articles about an early peak of Solar Cycle 25:

https://bit.ly/3FF26jh[1]

https://bit.ly/40ndQQN[2]

https://bit.ly/45REtys[3]

Trailblazing female astronomers, one is Mrs. Annie Maunder:

https://bit.ly/478EfEo[4]

New video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for October 26 through November 1, 2023 were 57, 66,
70, 61, 62, 116, and 105, with a mean of 76.7. 10.7 cm flux was
126.4, 127.5, 128, 135.2, 139.7, 147.3, and 158.6, with a mean of
137.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 11, 19, 28, 12, 9, and
9, with a mean of 15.9. Middle latitude A index was 18, 9, 13, 21,
10, 6, and 6, with a mean of 11.9.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3FF26jh
[2] https://bit.ly/40ndQQN
[3] https://bit.ly/45REtys
[4] https://bit.ly/478EfEo
[5] https://youtu.be/M4VBAuSpVZc
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/14/2023

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2310 UTC/09 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:

"G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov, with a
slight chance of G3 due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME
first observed 09-Nov. Conditions are expected to ease to background
levels on 13-Nov."

A great, big geomagnetic storm on Sunday disrupted the second day of
ARRL CW Sweepstakes. Planetary A index for the day was 57, and the
highest 3-hour planetary K index readings were 6, 6, 7 and 6.33 from
1200-2100 UTC. This was triggered by a coronal mass ejection (CME).

This reporting week, ending November 8, saw six new emerging sunspot
groups, one on each day, except November 6.

Solar activity improved, with average daily sunspot number
increasing from 76.7 to 89.7. Average daily solar flux rose from
137.5 to 151.7.

Geomagnetic activity increased. Average daily planetary A index
changed from 15.9 to 22.3 and middle latitude A index rose from 11.9
to 14.6.

The most active days were Sunday and Monday when the planetary A
index was 57 and 40, respectively.

Predicted solar flux is 140 on November 10-11, then 145, 130 and 135
on November 12-14, 130 on November 15-16, 123 and 120 on November
17-18, 125 on November 19-22, 130 on November 23-26, then 132, 134
and 134 on November 27-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
then 140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138, 136
and 134 on December 7-9, 130 on December 10-12, then 125, 123 and
120 on December 13-15, and 125 on December 16-19.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 8, 12 and 10 on November
10-14, then 5 on November 15-21, then 15, 10 and 15 on November
22-24, then 15, 20, 15 and 8 on November 25-28, then 5 on November
29 through December 5, then 12 and 8 on December 6-7, 5 on December
8-10, then 8, 10, and 8 on December 11-13, and 5 on December 14-18.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - November 9, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"In agreement with the prediction, two CMEs probably hit the Earth
on 4 and 5 November in succession (at least the second one on 3
November, also in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, was a 'full
halo CME').

"A G1 class geomagnetic storm was expected for the arrival of both
CMEs. The expectation was gradually changed to G2, but in fact its
intensity reached G3 (since 5 November 1743 UT, by K = 7).

"A relatively recently described and still somewhat mysterious
phenomenon, referred to as 'STEVE' (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancement), was also observed.

"It looks like an aurora, but unlike the aurora, it can be detected
already in weaker storms (by K = 4 or more). They are caused by hot
(3000 deg C) jets of gas flowing through the Earth's magnetosphere
at speeds in excess of 6 km/s.

"For the shortwave propagation, the positive phase of the
disturbance development (with increase of MUF and overall
improvement) was observed not only on November 4, but even better
after a pause on November 5. This was followed by a massive
deterioration, especially on 6 November, continuing to some extent
on 7 November. Although the influx of fast solar wind with enhanced
proton content continued, an increase in MUF followed with relative
improvement in shortwave propagation conditions as early as 8-9
November."

On Friday, November 3, W0IY wrote:

"I was very pleased with great conditions to Europe and North Africa
Saturday October 28 at 1700 UTC on 10 meters SSB. Happily working
stations when I saw a spot for Vanuatu. Tuned to the freq and easily
worked him. Didn't change the beam.

"Sunday morning same conditions and there is a spot for Reunion
Island. 1 call.

"Neither sounded like long path. Both strong signals in Cedar
Rapids, Iowa.

"Just seems like odd propagation."

I ran some paths with W6ELprop software, and to Reunion from W0IY
the best time for 10 meters on this 10,000 mile path would be
1630-1800 UTC, with possible openings also from 1530-1900 UTC.

An article on recent aurora:

https://bit.ly/467cs6d[1]

A solar eruption resembling a "Canyon of Fire":

https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo[2]

Scientists discover new truth about the Sun's structure:

https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery[3]

A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.

https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4[4]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[5]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[6] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[7] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[8]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[9] .

Sunspot numbers for November 2 through 8, 2023 were 113, 106, 95,
81, 67, 74, and 92, with a mean of 89.7. 10.7 cm flux was 158.4,
156.1, 155.3, 154.8, 146.2, 145.1, and 145.7, with a mean of 151.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 14, 57, 40, 18, and 16,
with a mean of 22.3. Middle latitude A index was 4, 3, 12, 30, 27,
11, and 15, with a mean of 14.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/467cs6d
[2] https://bit.ly/3sBIGZo
[3] https://www.indy100.com/science-tech/the-sun-structure-new-discovery
[4] https://youtu.be/nPrxI0KJmv4
[5] k7ra@arrl.net
[6] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[7] http://k9la.us/
[8] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[9] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/17/2023

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2306 UTC 16 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Two recent CMEs associated with small solar filament eruptions are
expected to increase geomagnetic activity from mid 19-Nov to 20-Nov.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 19-20 NOVEMBER 2023."

Solar activity was lower this week, November 9-15, with average
daily sunspot numbers dropping from 89.7 to 80.1, and average daily
solar flux from 151.7 to 133.8.

If these numbers seem a little low lately, we should check the
bulletin from the same week last year.

In the November 18, 2022 bulletin average daily sunspot number
changed from 79.8 to 72.3, so a year later we are definitely still
trending higher.

Geomagnetic indicators were also lower, planetary A index changing
from 22.3 to 10.4, and middle latitude A index from 14.6 to 8.6.

A single new sunspot group appeared on November 10, another on
November 12, one more on November 13 and another on November 14.
ÿ
Predicted solar flux is 118 and 120 on November 17-18,ÿ 122 on
November 19-22, then 126, 135 and 135 on November 23-25, then 140,
148, and 152 November 26-28, 155 on November 29 through December 1,
then 152, 150, 148 and 145 on December 2-5, then 140 on December
6-8, then 145, 135, 130 and 125 on December 9-12, 120 on December
13-15, then 125, 128, 130 and 132 on December 16-19, 135 on December
20-22, 140 and 148 on December 23-24, and 152 on December 25-26.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 15, 26 and 10 on November
17-21, then 5, 10, 18, 20 and 12 on November 22-26, 8 on November
27-28, 5 on November 29 through December 3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10
on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December 10-13, then 5 on
December 14-18, then 15, 12, 18, 20, and 12 no December 19-23, and 8
on December 24-25.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere November 17-23, 2023 from OK1HH:

"During the first half of November, solar activity continuously
decreased, which was not what we would have liked for shortwave
propagation.

"Even worse, there were relatively few geomagnetically quiet days -
only November 2, 3, 11 and 14.

"There were more days with higher geomagnetic activity: 4-8, 13 and
15 November. In addition, high levels of free electrons were present
in the ionosphere during relatively long periods (up to 4 November
and 7-12 November), which contributed to an increase in the
attenuation of passing electromagnetic waves.

"Shortwave propagation conditions in the second half of the month
should definitely be better as solar activity is expected to
increase. In addition, with the exception of the last days of
November (when we expect a disturbance), we expect the geomagnetic
field to be mostly quiet to only moderately active.

"If we try to account for the 27-day recurrence, geomagnetically
active days with fluctuations in propagation should occur after
November 21 again, but this is really only a guess given the current
nature of the trend."

Check this site for an update on current conditions on various
bands:

https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/[1]
ÿ
From Dick Bingham, W7WKR, an article about Heliophysics and amateur
radio:

https://bit.ly/46jYf5O[2]

An article from NOAA about Sunspots/Solar Cycle:

https://bit.ly/47iUpv2[3]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[4]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[5] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[6] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[8] .

Sunspot numbers for November 9 through 15, 2023 were 93, 93, 85, 78,
85, 86, and 41, with a mean of 80.1. 10.7 cm flux was 138.7, 143.9,
141.5, 137.2, 132.7, 123.8, and 118.9, with a mean of 133.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 10, 5, 12, 16, 6, and 12,
with a mean of 10.4. Middle latitude A index was 8, 7, 4, 10, 15, 5,
and 11, with a mean of 8.6.
ÿ


[1] https://dr2w.de/dx-propagation/
[2] https://bit.ly/46jYf5O
[3] https://bit.ly/47iUpv2
[4] k7ra@arrl.net
[5] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[8] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

11/27/2023

Geomagnetic conditions were very quiet last weekend, good conditions
for the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes. But there was much more geomagnetic
activity toward the end of the reporting week, when the planetary A
index jumped to 30 and Alaska's College A index reached 60, a very
high value.

This past weekend was the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX
Contest.

Solar activity really picked up in the past few days, with three new
sunspot groups on November 17, 18 and 19, then six new groups on
November 20, another on November 21, and three more groups on
Thanksgiving Day, November 23.

Sunspot numbers on Tuesday through Thursday, November 21-23 were
138, 174 and 176, and the total sunspot area on Thursday was 1560
millionths of the solar surface, the largest in a long time.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 80.1 to 83.3, while average
daily solar flux went from 133.8 to 146. Average daily planetary A
index went from 10.4 to 10.1, and middle latitude numbers from 8.6
to 7.3.

Predicted solar flux is 195 on November 24-28, then 190, 185, 155
and 152 on November 29 through December 2, then 150, 148 and 145 on
December 3-5, 140 on December 6-8, 145 on December 9-10, 140 on
December 11-17, 145 on December 18-23, 148 on December 24, 152 on
December 25-26, 155 on December 27-28, then 152, 150 and 148 on
December 29-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 10 on November 24-25, 15 on
November 26-27, 8 on November 28, 5 on November 29 through December
3, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 4-7, 5 on December 8-11, then
10 and 8 on December 12-13, 5 on December 14-17, then 10, 15 and 12
on December 18-20, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on December 21-25, and 5 on
December 26-30.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere November 24-30, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave propagation
conditions were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

"In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
days followed on November 19-20. Then, despite seven new sunspot
groups and calm in the Earth's magnetosphere, propagation conditions
did not improve until November 20.

"Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
conditions (at intervals of 10-13 UTC and 16-19 UTC).

"The following evolution could be expected - there was a
deterioration of propagation conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration
was short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar
activity, an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

"Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
worse days."

In a message titled "6 Meter F2 November 22" Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Despite a predicted CME impact over the weekend of November 18-19
missing the Earth, the geomagnetic field had minor storm conditions
November 22. The K index went to 5. This was enough of a nudge for
the F2 MUF to climb above 50 MHz to South America.

"I had several HC stations in around 1503z including HC2AO, HC2FG
and HC1MD/2. The opening lasted about 45 minutes then faded. Later
F2 appeared to the Caribbean area. I logged PJ4MM in FK52 at 1615z.

"Stations in the Minneapolis, MN area had an opening to Namibia with
V51WW working numerous W9 and W0 stations on 6 Meter FT8."
ÿ
In the current issue of the ARRL Letter there is an article about
two hams who are 100 miles apart in Florida who made contact via a
10 meter FM repeater in Switzerland.

The annual ARRL 160-Meter Contest will be this weekend, December
1-3:

https://www.arrl.org/160-meter[1]

Looking forward, the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest will be on
December 9-10:

https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[2]

Two new video reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0[3]

https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU[4]

Two articles on a big sunspot group:

https://bit.ly/40TWATp[5]

https://bit.ly/47P9C7d[6]
ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for November 16 through 22, 2023 were 28, 26, 39,
51, 127, 138, and 174, with a mean of 83.3. 10.7 cm flux was 117.9,
119.6, 127.1, 140.1, 156.5, 171.5, and 189.5, with a mean of 146.
Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 3, 3, 4, 5, 18, and 30, with a
mean of 10.1. Middle latitude A index was 7, 3, 2, 3, 4, 15, and 17,
with a mean of 7.3.

ÿ


[1] https://www.arrl.org/160-meter
[2] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
[3] https://youtu.be/DDh8-j1yOw0
[4] https://youtu.be/tZ7BZd6LKzU
[5] https://bit.ly/40TWATp
[6] https://bit.ly/47P9C7d
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/01/2023

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 23/74 ISSUED AT 2321UT/29 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Several CMEs are expected to impact Earth over 30 Nov and 01 Dec. Two CMEs were observed on 27 Nov that were expected to arrive on 30 Nov, followed shortly by a very mild glancing blow from a third.

"One or possibly two halo CMEs were observed on 29 Nov which are Earth directed.ÿ It is likely all or some of these CMEs will combine on their trajectory toward Earth, making it difficult to pinpoint an exact arrival time, however G3-G4 geomagnetic conditions are possible over this period."

Over the past reporting week, ten new sunspot groups appeared. Three on November 23, one each day on November 24 to 26, another on November 28 and three more on November 29.

Solar numbers increased, with average daily sunspot number rising dramatically from 83.3 to 165.9, doubling the previous week's number. Average daily solar flux rose from 146 to 181.5.

Geomagnetic numbers rose only slightly, with planetary A index changing from 10.1 to 11.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 7.6.

Predicted solar flux is 166 and 162 on December 1 and 2, 158 on December 3 and 4, then 156, 152, 150 and 140 on December 5 to 8, 145 on December 9 and 10, 140 on December 11 to 16, 150 on December 17, then 160 on December 18 to 28, then 165, 160 and 150 on December 29 to 31, then 145 on January 1, 2024, 140 on January 2 to 4, and 145 on January 5 and 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 54, 22 and 10 on December 1 to 3, 16 on December 4 and 5, 12 and 8 on December 6 and 7, 5 on December 8 to 11, then 10 and 8 on December 12 and 13, 5 on December 14 to 17, then 15, 25, 8 and 5 on December 18 and 21, then 20, 10, 10, and 8 on December 22 to 25, and 5 on December 26 to 30, then 10, 16, 12 and 10 on December 31 through January 3, 2024, and 5 on January 4 to 7.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere December 1 to 7, 2023 from OK1HH.

"A week ago the CW portion of the CQ World Wide DX Contest was held. Prior to that there were several scenarios of possible developments during the weekend of November 25 and 26, 2023.ÿ In the end the less likely scenario was the one that developed.ÿ This was due to a relatively inconspicuous C-class solar flare observed on November 22.

"However, a detailed analysis of its evolution revealed that it was preceded by a pre-eruption, which was the first signal that a CME was likely to follow.

"Further observations from satellites and radio telescopes confirmed the CME and measured the speed of the particle cloud.ÿ Its rendezvous with Earth was expected on November 24, which would have been bad enough for the contest. However, the particle cloud hit the Earth a day later.ÿ Therefore shortwave propagation improved on November 25 (especially in the afternoon UTC, during the positive phase of the disturbance), whereupon an aggravation occurred on the following day.

"The maximum of solar cycle 25 is approaching.ÿ CMEs, originating from more energetic solar flares, or from solar plasma filament eruptions, are hitting Earth with increasing frequency.

"For example, at the time of this writing, another geomagnetic disturbance is expected as another CME from the eruption observed on November 28 is expected to hit Earth on December 1 and 2.

"In the meantime, we are observing a rather large coronal hole in the southeastern solar disk, which will deflate along its southwestern quadrant over the next week.

"In particular, we are observing active regions to the east of it. This neighbourhood will result in further intensification of the solar wind and variations in geomagnetic field activity over the next week.ÿ Its predictions do exist, but they will not be reliable."

I noticed that OK1HH has a packet radio address.ÿ His address is:

Pmail: OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU[1]

Cycle peak in 2024?ÿ https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi[2]

Cycle peak in the next few months?ÿ https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG[3]

Predicting cycle peaks.ÿ https://bit.ly/46EKxKU[4]

A new long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6] .ÿ When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

A archive of past propagation bulletins is at ÿ

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10]

Sunspot numbers for November 23 through 29, 2023 were 176, 184, 179,169, 159, 130, and 164, with a mean of 83.3.ÿ 10.7 cm flux was 194.2, 178, 176.4, 180.2, 187.3, 183.5, and 170.6, with a mean of 146.ÿ Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 7, 38, 10, 7, 7, and 5, with a mean of 10.1.ÿ Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 18, 9, 2, 6, and 9, with a mean of 7.3.


[1] mailto:OK1HH@OK0NAG.BOH.CZE.EU
[2] https://bit.ly/3sXwrqi
[3] https://bit.ly/3N7KOPG
[4] https://bit.ly/46EKxKU
[5] https://youtu.be/qiHtkXfZnQo
[6] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/11/2023

Six new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week (November 30
to December 6).

Last week, using the previous week's Propagation Forecast bulletin
as a template, the averages were not updated, although all the
correct data was there.

So instead of average daily sunspot number of 83.3, it was actually
165.9, which this week dropped to 121.1.

Instead of average daily solar flux of 146, it was actually 181.5,
which this week declined to 146.5.

Instead of average daily planetary A index of 10.1, it was actually
11.6, which this week rose to 17.1. Instead of average middle
latitude A index of 7.3 it was 9, rising this week to 11.4.

Predicted solar flux is 135, 130, 130 and 135 on December 8-11, 137
on December 12-15, 140 and 150 on December 16-17, 160 on December
18-26, then 155, 150, 145, and 140 on December 27-30, then 136, 134
and 130 on December 31 through January 2, 2024, and 132 on January
3-5, then 130 and 135 on January 6-7, then 140 on January 8-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 8-9, 8 on December
10-11, 5 on December 12-17, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on December
18-23, 5 on December 24-30, then 25, 10 and 8 on December 31 through
January 2, 2024, and 5 on January 3-6, then 10 and 8 on January 7-8,
and 5 on January 9-13.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 8-14, 2023 from OK1HH:

"After passing through a twenty-seven day low in mid-November, solar
activity began to increase. Slowly at first, then steeply in recent
days. What was common to the whole period was that the predictions
of further developments were not fulfilled. Shortwave conditions
were, with a few exceptions, worse than expected.

"In the second half of last week, the Earth's magnetic field was
calm despite the eruption of a magnetic filament on the Sun on
November 16, which threw a CME almost directly toward the Earth. We
expected the CME to arrive on November 19. On the contrary, quiet
days followed on November 19-20.

"Then, despite seven new sunspot groups and calm in the Earth's
magnetosphere, propagation did not improve until November 20.

"Improvement occurred on 21 November, when the onset of the
geomagnetic disturbance was accompanied by two positive phases of
development with increases in MUF and an overall improvement in
conditions (at intervals of 1000-1300 UTC and 1600-1900 UTC).

"The following evolution could be expected - there was a
deterioration of conditions in the negative phase of the disturbance development on 22 November. However, the deterioration was
short-lived, after which, thanks to the increasing solar activity,
an improvement occurred already on 23 November.

"Although solar activity continues to increase, there is a coronal
hole near the five active regions in the northeast quadrant of the
solar disk. This configuration will cause further increases in solar
wind speed and therefore more frequent alternation of better and
worse days."

From "Universe Today" a story about a big, big solar storm in 1872:

https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL[1]

A story about a big coronal hole:

https://bit.ly/487quGd[2]

From "Science Alert" another article about a big hole on the Sun:

https://bit.ly/41adYDC[3]

From "EarthSky" a new region on the Sun:

https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG[4]

Don't forget, the ARRL 10 meter contest is THIS weekend!

https://www.arrl.org/10-meter[5]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[6]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6, 2023 were 138,
140, 92, 107, 113, 133, and 125, with a mean of 121.1. 10.7 cm flux
was 166.5, 162, 148.2, 139.2, 137.8, 141.6, and 129.9, with a mean
of 146.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 56, 14, 11, 9, 15,
and 10, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A index was 4, 30, 11,
10, 9, 9, and 7, with a mean of 7.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3RgUWqL
[2] https://bit.ly/487quGd
[3] https://bit.ly/41adYDC
[4] https://bit.ly/3RxtCWG
[5] https://www.arrl.org/10-meter
[6] k7ra@arrl.net
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/15/2023

"GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0132 UTC ON 15 DECEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Two predominately westward CMEs were observed on 14-Dec and
component arrivals are expected on 17-Dec.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR 17 DECEMBER 2023."

Spaceweather.com[1] issued this alert on Thursday:

"MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The Sun just unleashed the strongest
solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), an X2.8-class explosion from
unstable sunspot AR3514. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio
blackout over the Americas and may have hurled a fast CME toward
Earth."

Solar activity declined this week. Average daily sunspot numbers
dropped from 121.1 to 110.3, and average daily solar flux from 146.5
to 129.8.

With such low geomagnetic activity, conditions were good for last
weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest, although some wished for more
sunspots.

Six new sunspot groups appeared this week. The first two on December
8, another two on December 11 and 12, and two more on December 13.

Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with planetary A index dropping
from 14.1 to 5.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 4.6.

Predicted solar flux shows some expected improvement, with values
peaking at 160 on December 20-22, and 155 on January 23.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on December 15-16, then 145, 150 and 155
on December 17-19, 160 on December 20-22, but dropping back to 140
on December 23-24, 150 on December 25-26, then 155, 150 and 145 on
December 27-29, then 140 on December 30 through January 2, 2024, and
135 on January 3-5, then 130, 125, 120, 118, and 120 on January
6-10, 122 on January 11-12, then 124, 125, and 130 on January 13-15,
135 on January 16-18, 140 on January 19-20, and 150 on January
21-22.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 22 on December 15-16, 12 on
December 17-18, then 18, 8, 8, 20 and 10 on December 19-23, 5 on
December 24-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
2024, 5 on January 3-6, 12 on January 7-9, 8 and 5 on January 10-11,
12 on January 12-13, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on January 14-19,
and 5 for at least the following few days.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere December 15-21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Solar activity has been gradually decreasing over the last seven
days, broadly in line with the forecast.

"Most of the flares came from the active region AR3514, which was
moving from the northeast to the northwest.

"Eventually, most of the sunspots were in the northwest of the solar
disk, and as they gradually set over the next few days, solar
activity should continue to decrease.

"While activity on the Sun's receding half does not appear to be
great, there is definitely a larger active region beyond the Sun's
northeastern limb. This observation is likely the basis for the
latest forecast from the U.S. Air Force, which predicts a rise in
solar flux initially to 160, and after a slight drop back above 150
around Christmas.

"Shortwave propagation conditions, which have suffered particularly
in the Earth's northern hemisphere from the decline in solar
activity, should improve.

"But developments may be more complicated. Just as a CME originating
from the solar flare of 11 December with a peak at 2243 UT arrived
at Earth before midnight UTC on 13 December, triggered a geomagnetic disturbance in the first hours UTC on 14 December and significantly
worsened propagation, we can expect something similar from the
stronger flare of 14 December with a peak at 0744 UTC. However,
subsequent geomagnetic disturbances should be no more intense than
G1."

Reader David Moore sent this article from "SpaceNews":

https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF[2]

On Wednesday morning Spaceweather.com announced:

"The best meteor shower of the year is expected to peak on December
13-14 with no Moon to spoil the show. Rural observers could see
hundreds of Geminid meteors and more than a few fireballs."

From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:

"The 10 meter contest in my view was pretty nice on average,
although did notice this:

"During 0000 UTC on Saturday got always South America for about 3
hours before the band closed. Then before 1200 UTC got to work
VR2XAN which was a surprise as my antenna was pointing to Europe (he
said he was beaming the South Pole) and it's been 10 years since I
worked Hong Kong for the first time.

"But then, could not work a few Europeans, and the band likely
closed to them by 1500 UTC, and the US was pretty strong.

"Then it closed at 2230 UTC, so SA predominated again. It repeated
for Sunday.

"Also noted that there was a lot of fading as some stations
disappeared for a few seconds to a minute. And the SFI dropped to
130 which could have been a factor.

"But for what I am happy is that I accumulated 600 points for the
VOTA event, and I delivered 35."

Did you know India has a solar observatory in space?ÿ Here is an
article from "The Times Of India":

https://bit.ly/3GGecsH[3]

From WBZ news, a story about a Massive Solar Flare:

https://bit.ly/4anifba[4]

Bil Paul, KD6JUI wrote:

"The solar flux wasn't optimal for the ARRL 10-meter contest last
weekend, but it was good enough. There was a lot of activity on the
voice part of the band.

"Operating from my kayak with 10 watts and a small homebrew loop, I
gathered 38 contest exchanges on Saturday and Sunday, around 3-1/2
hours of operating in total.

"On Saturday, South and Central America, and Caribbean stations were
coming in as well as the usual Canadian stations for
out-of-the-country exchanges. I managed to snap up one Brazilian
station for DX.

"On Sunday, I heard Australian stations coming in, but couldn't get
them to hear me. There were also more Brazilian stations plus a few
from Argentina.

"I was operating around noontime. QSB was evident."

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, put out a new video this week:

https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc[5]

A couple of interesting QRZ.com[6] pages to check out: KS7ROH for his astrophotography and other projects, and W6BSD for links to his
propagation pages.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[7]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[8] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[9] .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[10]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[11] .

Sunspot numbers for December 7 through 13, 2023 were 121, 125, 125,
120, 87, 80, and 114, with a mean of 110.3. 10.7 cm flux was 134.6,
132.6, 127.9, 126.6, 125.9, 126.2, and 134.8, with a mean of 129.8.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 5, 3, 4, 3, 10, and 8, with a
mean of 5.6. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 2, 4, 3, 8, and 7,
with a mean of 4.6.

ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/46ZKDNF
[3] https://bit.ly/3GGecsH
[4] https://bit.ly/4anifba
[5] https://youtu.be/64CTIrWBGTc
[6] http://QRZ.com
[7] k7ra@arrl.net
[8] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[9] http://k9la.us/
[10] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[11] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/22/2023

The Winter Solstice, the shortest day of the year in the Northern
Hemisphere occurred at 0327 UTC on December 22. It is the start of
summer in the Southern Hemisphere.

Solar activity increased over the last reporting week (December
14-20), with eleven new sunspot groups emerging.

One new sunspot group appeared on December 15, four more on the
following day, another on December 17, three more on December 18,
and two more in December 19-20.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 110.3 to 137.4, solar flux
from 129.8 to 162.7, planetary A index 5.6 to 18.4, and middle
latitude A index from 4.6 to 13.7.

The most active day was Sunday, December 17 when the planetary A
index was 36, and Alaska's college A index was 88.

The cause was what Spaceweather.com reported as the strongest flare
of the current solar cycle, an X2.8 class, and it caused a radio
blackout.

Here is a video of the brief flash:

https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw[1]

Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday that another flare is coming
from sunspot group AR3529, and here is a movie they posted:

https://bit.ly/3tipAbr[2]

Predicted solar flux is 190, 188 and 186 on December 22-24, then
182, 180, 170 and 165 on December 25-28, 145 on December 29-30, 150
on December 31, then 145, 140 and 138 on January 1-3, 2024, then 136
on January 4-5, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 6-8, 145 on January
9-12, then 150, 147, 145, 140, and 138 on January 13-17, 136 on
January 18-19, then 140, 145 and 148 on January 20-22, then 145 on
January 23-26, then 150, 145, 140 and 138 on January 27-30.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 8 on December 22-24, 5 on
December 25-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
2024, 5 on January 3-7, 10 on January 8-9, 8 on January 10, 5 on
January 11-13, 15 on January 14, 12 on January 15-16, and 8 on
January 17-19, then 5 on January 20-25, and 8 on January 26-27.

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, from Kansas:

"Some winter 6 meter Es December 18-19. N7BHC (EL15) and KD5CAF
(EL18) into EM28 for me on FT8 around 0100 UTC December 19. Earlier
stations in Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri had ZL7DX in on 6 meters
at 2200 UTC December 18."

Here is a new, long video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, from
earlier this week:

https://bit.ly/3GPRYET[3]

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - December 21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Astronomical winter began in the Northern Hemisphere at the moment
of the Winter Solstice: December 22 at 0327 UTC. On this day is the
longest night and, of course, the shortest day. The total effect of
solar X-ray and ultraviolet radiation on the ionosphere of our
hemisphere was thus relatively the smallest of the entire year, and
the effects of changes in the solar wind were all the more
effective. This is also one of the reasons why, despite relatively
high solar activity, the shortwave propagation conditions are worse
than we would like and then we expected.

"Over the next six months, the length of the day will increase until
the Summer Solstice on June 20. Slowly at first, then faster,
fastest around the Spring Equinox on March 20. It is certain that
then the propagation conditions will be significantly better than
now. It is even possible that the maximum of the eleven-year cycle
will occur as early as next year, although it would be better for us
if it did not occur until 2025.

"Although we have not observed any particularly large sunspot groups
in recent weeks, there were always one or two active regions among
them, whose magnetic configuration allowed the development of a
medium-sized eruption, possibly even with a CME - after all we
observed several of these. The exception was the X2.8 class eruption
on December 14 at 1702 UTC, the strongest so far since the beginning
of the 25th solar cycle, or since the major disturbances in
September 2017.

"The eruption originated in AR3514, which was approaching the
western limb of the Sun. Even though it hurled a fast-moving CME
into space, it was relatively unlikely to cause strong geomagnetic
storms here on Earth. Eventually, the CME either missed Earth or hit
so weakly that it was not detected by satellite sensors.

"During the rise of the solar flux from 126 on December 12 to 195 on
December 20, with the corresponding increase in solar X-ray
radiation, shortwave propagation improved only slightly, actually
fluctuating, which was expected.

"The last geomagnetically quiet day was December 13, after which the
Earth's magnetic field was unsettled to active (more precisely:
active around last weekend). However, most days until the end of
this year should be geomagnetically quieter, while the solar flux
will remain elevated. Therefore, we can expect slightly better
propagation."

Here are a number of articles about a Big Flare:

https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb[4]

https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe[5]

https://bit.ly/48tJtuH[6]

https://bit.ly/3TAeybV[7]

https://bit.ly/48pIpbo[8]

https://bit.ly/488c88X[9]

https://bit.ly/3tymsrK[10]

https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh[11]

https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ[12]

https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0[13]

An article about Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il[14]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[15]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[16] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[17] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[18] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[19] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[20] .

Also, check this article about understanding solar indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[21]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[22] .

Sunspot numbers for December 14 through 20, 2023 were 126, 130, 163,
129, 137, 144, and 133, with a mean of 137.4. 10.7 cm flux was
155.1, 144.3, 149, 154.6, 161.4, 179.3, and 195.3, with a mean of
162.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 12, 14, 36, 28, 12,
and 11, with a mean of 18.4. Middle latitude A index was 13, 8, 10,
32, 16, 10, and 7, with a mean of 13.7.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3RP3xCw
[2] https://bit.ly/3tipAbr
[3] https://bit.ly/3GPRYET
[4] https://bit.ly/3RQG4Rb
[5] https://bit.ly/3RRzBpe
[6] https://bit.ly/48tJtuH
[7] https://bit.ly/3TAeybV
[8] https://bit.ly/48pIpbo
[9] https://bit.ly/488c88X
[10] https://bit.ly/3tymsrK
[11] https://bit.ly/3RwJzLh
[12] https://bit.ly/3RThBuQ
[13] https://bit.ly/3RRzzh0
[14] https://bit.ly/3v5b5Il
[15] k7ra@arrl.net
[16] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[17]
[18] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[20] http://k9la.us/
[21] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[22] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

12/29/2023

The recent reporting week, December 21-27, saw counter-intuitive solar numbers, with solar flux rising but sunspot numbers in decline. This happens from time to time.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 137.4 to 114.4. Only three new sunspot groups emerged, two on December 22, and one on December 27. On Thursday, December 28 one more sunspot emerged and the sunspot number increased from 78 to 83.

Average daily solar flux rose from 162.7 to 172.6.

Predicted solar flux over the next month is 145 on December 29-30, 140 on December 31 to January 1, 2024, 135 on January 2-4, 150 on January 5-7, 155 on January 8-11, then 150, 155, 160, 170 and 175 on January 12-16, 180 on January 17-21, then 170, 165, 162, 155 and 145 on January 22-26, then 140 on January 27-30, and 150 on January 31 to February 3.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10, 8, 16, and 8 on December 29 through January 2, 2024, then 5 on January 3-7, then 10, 10 and 8 onÿ January 8-10, then 5 on January 11-25, then 12, 10, 10 and 8 on January 26-29, and 5 on January 30 through February 3.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere, December 28, 2023 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

"There are active regions on the Sun that may not even be large, but whose magnetic configuration points to the possibility of solar flares, up to moderately important ones. CMEs are no exception, but they may not hit the Earth at all.

"On December 24, three moderate-importance flares were observed. At least one of them produced a CME. Based on measurements of its velocity, the collision with Earth was predicted to December 27. However, nothing happened, and despite the extension of the prediction of the onset of the disturbance by a day, calm continued on 28 December.

"For many days now there has been such a large active region on the Sun's far side that it is affecting the vibration of the entire Sun. In addition, it has been observed by NASA's Mars Perseverance rover camera. While it is primarily designed to see if there is dust in the air, it can see large sunspots and, most importantly, the sun's far side is now visible from Mars.

"So we await the return of AR 3514, which will rise in the northeastern solar disk shortly after the New Year. It will be a significant contributor to the further rise in solar activity in the days ahead. Furthermore, longer term forecasts are calling for high solar activity in the second half of January. So perhaps we will finally see an improvement in shortwave conditions."

Don't forget ARRL Straight Key Night is this weekend, for all of New Years Day (UTC), so that starts at 4:00 PM Sunday here on the Left Coast where I live. Operate CW in a casual event using your straight key or semi-automatic bug.

Recent activity: https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE[1]

Sun as revolving field motor: https://bit.ly/41CbEFA[2]

Aurora: https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5[3]

2023 solar activity:

http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd[4] ÿÿhttps://bit.ly/3RYngj1[5]

Cosmic spectacle: https://bit.ly/41C8kdR[6]

Larger storms: https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB[7]

Tamitha Skov's latest report: https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9] . When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] ÿand the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see

http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] ÿ

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at

http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14]

Also, check this: https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16]

Sunspot numbers for December 21 through 27, 2023 were 138, 157, 123, 113, 98, 94, and 78, with a mean of 114.4. 10.7 cm flux was 193.6, 186.7, 174.2, 183.4, 166.7, 154.2, and 149.4, with a mean of 172.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 7, 9, 4, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.4. Middle latitude A index was 3, 3, 5, 7, 2, 4, and 4, with a mean of 4.


[1] https://bit.ly/3vhqLIE
[2] https://bit.ly/41CbEFA
[3] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8qwdc5
[4] http://tinyurl.com/55x96tfd
[5] https://bit.ly/3RYngj1
[6] https://bit.ly/41C8kdR
[7] https://bit.ly/3RDl4fB
[8] https://youtu.be/-xt-qMPQWwE
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/05/2024

Only four new sunspot groups emerged over the past week, one on
December 28, another on December 31, and two more on January 2 and
3.

Solar indices sank. The average daily sunspot number declined from
114.4 to 63.4, and average daily solar flux from 172.6 to 141.9.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 8.4 to 6.7 and middle
latitude numbers from 4 to 5.1.

Predicted solar flux over the next few weeks is 130 on January 5-7,
135 on January 8-10, 140 on January 11, 155 on January 12-14, then
160, 165, 160 and 155 on January 15-18, 150 on January 19-21, then
145 and 140 on January 22-23, and 135 on January 24-26, 130 and 145
on January 27-28, 140 on January 29-30, 145 on January 31 through
February 1, 150 on February 2-4, 155 on February 5-6, 160 on
February 7, and 155 on February 8-10.

This is from the Thursday forecast, which looks substantially weaker
than the Wednesday outlook in Thursday's ARRL Letter.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 5, 8, 10 and 8 on January 5-9,
then 5 on January 10-26, then 8, 15 and 12 on January 27-29, 8 on
January 30-31, 5 on February 1-3, then 10, 10 and 8 on February 4-6,
and 5 on February 7-18.

Solar activity looks soft of late, but perhaps we will see a double
peak in this cycle.

But look at this illustration comparing progress in the current
cycle against the last cycle, month by month since each minimum:

https://bit.ly/4aMBefh[1]

Page down to the second chart, labeled "Solar Cycle Comparison."

There is some confusion because of the similarity in colors.

The red line is the last cycle, probably smoothed by monthly
averages.ÿ The blue green line inside it is probably a conventional
moving average with points on the line smoothed over a year.

The yellow line is the current cycle, also probably smoothed over a
year, and the light blue green line is the current cycle, probably
smoothed with monthly numbers.

This looks promising for more activity to come.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 4, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"The first celebrations of the end of the calendar year in Western
civilization are associated with the person of the canonized Pope
Silvester I, who died on the last day of the year 335. However, no
one expected that December 31, 2023, would be celebrated with
fireworks all the way on the Sun.

"Helioseismological observations focused on a large active region
approaching the northeastern limb of the solar disk from the far
side, and large spots on the far side of the Sun were seen by the
camera of the Perseverance rover on Mars. But no one actually
expected a proton solar flare, the largest in the current
eleven-year cycle.

"The X5.0 eruption in X-ray band 1 to 8 Angstrom occurred at 2155
UTC in NOAA/SWPC 3536 and was the largest observed eruption since
the X8.2 eruption on September 10, 2017. In the same sunspot group
(in the previous solar rotation), an X2.8 eruption was observed on
December 14, 2023, whereby this was the strongest since the
beginning of Solar Cycle 25 up to that point.

"In particular, however, it also contributed to expectations of a
further increase in activity in the next year or two.

"Four days later, AR3536 is no longer as large as it was on the
Sun's far side and about half the size it was in December as AR3514,
but it is still capable of producing moderate solar flares.ÿ Now AR
3536 is approaching the central meridian from where a possible CME
(within the next week) could already be hitting Earth.ÿ At the same
time, we expect a further increase in solar radiation , which could
improve propagation conditions in the DX bands. But of course, also
worsen if a possible magstorm lasts longer or even starts at night."

I was on a video session on Sunday with Dr. Tamitha Skov and her
Patreon subscribers. She was displaying the Sun in real time when
the big flare happened. It was quite dramatic.

She was also using a setting on Pskreporter.info[2] that I had never
tried before. The settings are, "On All Bands, show Signals,
sent/rcvd by Anyone, using All Modes, over the last" (pick a time).

In real time we could immediately see the effects the flare had on
propagation. It was fascinating. I use this regularly now to check
worldwide propagation on all HF bands.

I asked her if her husband was an astrophysicist, and she said,
"No." She yelled, "Hey Kent! Come in here."

Kent is an actor, an acting coach, a producer, and a writer. I asked
how they met, which was hilarious. You won't read it here, but you
can email me if you want more details.

Scott Craig, WA4TTK years ago built some Windows software that sucks
up solar data from this bulletin and displays it in a nice format on
his Solar Data Plotting Utility. To update it, you just create a
plain .txt file of this bulletin and point the program to the file.

You can download it from http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp[3] and
also on the same page is an updated data file good through 1/3/2024.

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/WN4iqCq4LAU[4]

An article about a powerful solar storm:

https://bit.ly/3RO0Ek5[5]

Two articles about a solar storm that will hit hard:

https://bit.ly/3vqMhL9[6]

https://bit.ly/41L5SBI[7]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[8]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[9] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[13] .

Also, check this article:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for December 28, 2023, through January 3, 2024, were
83, 92, 48, 55, 44, 59, and 63, with a mean of 63.4. 10.7 cm flux
was 146.7, 142.9, 139.7, 146.2, 135.7, 142.1, and 140.2, with a mean
of 141.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 6, 5, 4, 10, 8, and
11, with a mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 6, 4, 2, 6,
8, and 8, with a mean of 5.1.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/4aMBefh
[2] http://Pskreporter.info
[3] http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp
[4] https://youtu.be/WN4iqCq4LAU
[5] https://bit.ly/3RO0Ek5
[6] https://bit.ly/3vqMhL9
[7] https://bit.ly/41L5SBI
[8] k7ra@arrl.net
[9] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/12/2024

Eight new sunspot groups emerged over this reporting week, January
4-10.

Four new sunspot groups appeared on January 5, another two on
January 7 and two more on January 9.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 63.4 to 146.1, and average
daily solar flux went from 141.9 to 163.3.

Geomagnetic indicators declined, with planetary A index going from
6.7 to 4.9, and middle latitude numbers from 5.1 to 4.3.

Predicted solar flux over the near term is 192, 190 and 186 on
January 12-14, 188 on January 15-16, then 186 and 184 on January
17-18, 150 on January 19-21, then 145 and 140 on January 22-23, 135
on January 24-26, then 130 and 135 on January 27-28, 140 on January
29-31, then 150, 160, 165 and 150 on February 1-4, 155 on February
5-6, 160 on February 7, then 155 on February 8-10, then 160, 165,
160 and 155 on February 11-14, and 150 on February 15-17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 12, 8 on January 13-14,
5, 5, 10 and 8 on January 15-18, 5 on January 19-27, 8 on January
28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 3, then 10, 10 and 8 on
February 4-6, and 5 on February 7-22.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 11, 2024 from OK1HH:

"Since the beginning of the 25th Solar Cycle (December 2019), we
observed 782 sunspot groups, and almost half of them (361) last
year. Most forecasters believe that the solar maximum will occur in
2024.

"The exception is the Bureau of Meteorology Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre, whose 'OBSERVED AND PREDICTED SOLAR INDICES' table, published on January 4, already showed the probable highest SMOOTHED SUNSPOT NUMBER = 126.4 last November.

"It should fall further until R = 15.5 in December 2029. But I
believe solar activity will continue to rise and that we have a
second maximum ahead of us, no later than 2025.

"Now there is usually at least one active region on the Sun with an
unstable magnetic field 'beta-gamma,' capable of producing flares of
moderate magnitude, possibly with CMEs.

"Any large flares would be the exception, and proton flares would be
even more of an exception.

"Among the more significant moderate-magnitude eruptions accompanied
by CMEs is the M3.8/2n class event of 4 January at 0155 UTC, which
produced the Dellinger event (SWF or Shortwave Fadeout) over
Australia and the surrounding Pacific Ocean. There was silence at
frequencies below 20 MHz for more than 30 minutes. This flare took
place in the northeastern solar disk (N04E39), while the CME missed
the Earth.

"Other developments on the Sun were quieter, which contributed to a
relatively long interval of geomagnetic quiet since 4 January
onwards. At the same time, the intensity of solar radiation
increased. The result was progressively improving shortwave
propagation. But seven major active regions can now be counted on
the Sun's far side. Once they emerge onto the solar disk the
situation will change."

NASA's SDO reveals hidden solar storm threat to Earth:

https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU[1]

Interesting application for use with Mobile Radio:

https://www.ve2dbe.com/[2]
ÿÿÿÿ
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this page:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for January 4 through 10 2024 were 64, 121, 149,
171, 152, 183, and 183, with a mean of 146.1. 10.7 cm flux was
125.8, 152.7, 159.4, 167.1, 176.2, 175.9, and 186, with a mean of
163.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, and 7,
with a mean of 4.9. Middle latitude A index was 5, 4, 2, 3, 4, 5,
and 7, with a mean of 4.3.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3vxMJXU
[2] https://www.ve2dbe.com/
[3] k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/19/2024

Solar activity increased substantially over the past week, with
twelve new sunspot groups. One appeared on January 11, five more on
January 12, another on January 13, two more on January 15, and three
more on January 16.

Two more sunspot groups emerged on January 18.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 146.1 to 167.3, and solar
flux from 163.3 to 184.1.

Geomagnetic numbers remained low and practically unchanged, with
planetary A index moving from 4.9 to 5, and middle latitude A index
shifting from 4.3 to 3.9.

Predicted solar flux is 162, 160 and 155 on January 19-21, then 150
on January 22-23, 152 on January 24-25, 167 on January 26, 170 on
January 27-29, then 175 and 180 on January 30-31, 185 on February
1-4, then 187 and 185 on February 5-6, 170 on February 7-8, 175 on
February 9-10, 190 on February 11-12, then 185, 175, 170 and 165 on
February 13-16, then 162 on February 17-18, then 160, 160, 165 and
167 on February 19-22, and 170 on February 23-25.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 1, and 10 on January 19-21, then 5
on January 22-27, 8 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31 through
February 11, 8 on February 12-14, and 5 on February 15-23, then 12
on February 24-25.

In an email report on January 14, Jon Jones, N0JK wrote, "Today
there are thirteen sunspot groups on the Earthside of the Sun - the
greatest number so far in Solar Cycle 25. Despite the surfeit of
sunspots, the Sun has been quiet all weekend. Could it be the calm
before the storm? One of the sunspots (AR3541) has a delta-class
magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares."

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 18, 2024 from OK1HH:

"We've had two weeks of mostly quiet conditions, with relatively
high solar activity but only a few flares. And most importantly - no
CMEs hitting the Earth. In addition, 13 sunspot groups were observed
on the Sun on January 13 - the highest number in the current 11-year
cycle. Despite the glut of sunspots, the Sun remained quiet.

"Shortwave conditions were therefore more influenced by changes in
solar wind parameters. The exception was on 15 January, when
shortwave propagation was affected by a sporadic-E layer, which
occurred over Europe before noon UTC and over the USA later in the
afternoon UTC.

"Although solar flares were not massive, they were nevertheless
accompanied by CMEs on several occasions, but were directed away
from Earth. The biggest of these left the Sun on January 14 and was
headed toward Mercury and Venus (these planets can be seen in the
east before sunrise).

"We are now expecting solar flares of C-class at 0-2 per day, with
the rare possibility of a M-class flare. Coronal holes are mostly
small and do not occur near active regions, which also reduces the
likelihood of geomagnetic disturbances. Therefore, it appears that
the current relatively favorable trend will continue."

Bil Paul, KD6JUI in Northern California operates from a fresh water
kayak, and sent this report:

"I was out in the kayak yesterday, January 11, with 10w and a small
loop. With solar flux at 180+ I expected a lot happening on 10m but
that was not the case. Was disappointed. Did get a few contacts.
Heard Chile and Argentina coming in fairly strong (I had no luck
there) and heard very faintly an Israeli station. Best distance I
contacted was Bermuda, a VP9, on CW.

"Went down to 12m and had a few more contacts.

"Quite a bit of QSB on both bands."

Dave, N4KZ in Kentucky reported via email:

"For the second time in the past month I have decoded DX signals on
8 meters. Several countries have authorized their amateurs to
operate on 8 meters. The FT8 frequency is 40.680 MHz. On January 14,
2024, at 1540 UTC I saw a spot for 8 meter activity on the DX Summit
website. As soon as I moved to that frequency, I decoded several DX
signals from Europe and the Caribbean. But within a few minutes
signals faded out.

"About a month ago, I saw an Irish station work an American station
who has an experimental license for 8 meters. No other activity was
heard that time. I know of at least one American on 8 meters with an experimental license. He's in Georgia. I'm not sure if there are
others.

"I was using my 3-element 6-meter Yagi up 60 feet to listen. On the
two occasions I have decoded European stations, they had good
signals. Offhand, crossing the Atlantic on 40 MHz seems much easier
than at 50 MHz."

Tolvo, W8JTM of Liberty Lake, Washington sent this report:

"The 'Santa Claus Polar Path' described by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA
(link follows) is well and good! Not sure if it was winter F2
ionization or Aurora-E, but I had a nice SSB ragchew with OH6RM on
10 meters on 15 January when it was 11 PM Finland time (2100 UTC),
well after the MUF had dropped to not support 28 MHz.

"Signals were 20 dB over S9 with no flutter the whole time, and
after I signed off, I heard him work station-after-station all over
the USA for almost two hours with his signal only dropping to S9.
It was an incredibly solid path for 10 meters from Eastern
Washington, some 4500 miles.

"I also worked into Finland on 17 January on 15 meter phone, but
there was heavy slow flutter on the signals.

"As reported by Carl, these polar paths are surprisingly reliable in
Fall and Winter, and I always enjoy working into Finland where my
parents were from."

https://k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf[1]

From Scientific American, a story about the upcoming Solar Eclipse,
with sunspots this time:

https://bit.ly/3vESa7r[2]

An image of Sunspot AR3545 from Sky and Telescope magazine:

https://bit.ly/48BmDCb[3]

SciTechDaily article about the Solar peak:

https://bit.ly/4b4f60g[4]

An article about a gigantic solar hole:

https://bit.ly/3O5ful2[5]

Explanation of the Babcock Model:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_model[6]

From News Rebeat, the US/Korea to monitor solar storms:

https://bit.ly/3Snq5ui[7]

A "Travel and Leisure" article about the Northern Lights with regard
to a Solar max January to October 2024:

https://bit.ly/3RXNKQC[8]

Here is the latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/jo0Tg2W4fEE[9]
ÿÿÿÿ
Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[10]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for January 11 through 17 2024 were 151, 188, 191,
183, 150, 150, and 158, with a mean of 167.3. 10.7 cm flux was
192.5, 186.4, 185.4, 187.9, 182.5, 179.6, and 174.1, with a mean of
184.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 4, 3, 6, 6, 6, and 4,
with a mean of 5. Middle latitude A index was 4, 4, 3, 5, 4, 4, and
3, with a mean of 3.9.

ÿ


[1] https://k9la.us/Sep14_The_Santa_Claus_Polar_Path.pdf
[2] https://bit.ly/3vESa7r
[3] https://bit.ly/48BmDCb
[4] https://bit.ly/4b4f60g
[5] https://bit.ly/3O5ful2
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Babcock_model
[7] https://bit.ly/3Snq5ui
[8] https://bit.ly/3RXNKQC
[9] https://youtu.be/jo0Tg2W4fEE
[10] k7ra@arrl.net
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/26/2024

Just four new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, January
18-24, one on each day, January 18-21.

But it looks like we may see flares, CMEs and geomagnetic storms
over the next few days. Spaceweather.com[1] identified sunspot
group AR3561 as "hyperactive."

Sunspot numbers and solar flux declined, and geomagnetic indicators
rose, but only slightly.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 167.3 to 130.6, and
average solar flux from 184.1 to 173.3.

Average planetary A index rose from 5 to 7.4, and middle latitude
numbers from 3.9 to 5.1.

Looking ahead, we may see a short term peak in solar flux centered
around February 11, and another about six weeks from now.

Predicted solar flux is 160 on January 26-27, 150 on January 28 to
February 1, 170 on February 2, 175 on February 3-4, 180 on February
5-8, then 190, 190 and 195 on February 9-11, then 190 and 185 on
February 12-13, 180 on February 14-15, then 175. 170, 175, 175, 170,
175, and 170 on February 16-22, then 165, 160, 165, 160 and 165 on
February 23-27, 170 on February 28-29, and 175 on March 1-2, then
180 on March 3-6.

Predicted planetary A index is 25, 30, 18, 10 and 8 on January
26-30, then 5 on January 31 through February 16, and 8 on February
17-18, then 5 on February 19-24, then 10, 12 and 10 on February
25-27, and 5 on February 28 through early March.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - January 25, 2024, from OK1HH:

"At the present stage of the 11-year solar cycle, there are five to
thirteen groups of spots (or active regions) on the Sun. In three of
them, we can observe such magnetic configuration that allows the
development of a larger flare, possibly with a CME.

"On the other hand, there are relatively few coronal holes on the
Sun, reducing the likelihood of Earth being hit by an enhanced solar
wind and then geomagnetic disturbances. Therefore, the evolution is
quieter, and the level of shortwave propagation is a little calmer
than we might otherwise expect."

Glenn Packard, K4ZOT reported from Atlanta, Georgia on January 22
that he worked New Zealand on 6 meter FT8 at 0257 UTC:

"I just happened to tune to 6M tonight after being disappointed on
6M for the Winter season.ÿ Then Bloom, ZL4TT, comes through at R-19
and me at -08.ÿ Just WOW.ÿ Called once and he came right back to me.
Band then went dead after the contact.ÿ Amateur Radio still has
surprised this Olde Man."

Solar Cycle 25 nearing its peak?

https://bit.ly/3Sv70GF[2]

Articles about recent Solar activity:

https://bit.ly/4b6n48Z[3]

https://bit.ly/3OiSL5r[4]

https://bit.ly/3Ohoy6L[5]

A NOAA article about Solar Cycle Progression:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[6]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, for January 22:

https://youtu.be/41LGqYbxsvk[7]

Did you know she has about 84,500 subscribers?

New, long program from Dr. Skov for January 25:

https://youtu.be/wQ7VFh_D2Mw[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[10] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[11] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[12] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ [13].

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[14]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[15] .

Sunspot numbers for January 18 through 24 2024 were 113, 137, 144,
150, 139, 123, and 108, with a mean of 130.6. 10.7 cm flux was
162.3, 157.4, 166.3, 178.5, 196.1, 180.3, and 172, with a mean of
173.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 6, 6, 9, 7, and 10,
with a mean of 7.4. Middle latitude A index was 4, 5, 4, 5, 6, 5,
and 7, with a mean of 5.1.

ÿ


[1] https://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3Sv70GF
[3] https://bit.ly/4b6n48Z
[4] https://bit.ly/3OiSL5r
[5] https://bit.ly/3Ohoy6L
[6] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[7] https://youtu.be/41LGqYbxsvk
[8] https://youtu.be/wQ7VFh_D2Mw
[9] k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[11] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[12] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[13] http://k9la.us/
[14] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[15] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/03/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED 1817 UTC/02 MAY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A period of planetary G3 geomagnetic conditions has been observed
on 02-May, associated with two recent CME arrivals and a sustained
period of southward IMF conditions. Further periods of G3 are
possible over 02-03 May.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 02-03 MAY 2024.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:
02 May: G2-G3
03 May: G2, chance G3, declining to G1"

After the record sunspot numbers reported in last week's Propagation
Forecast Bulletin ARLP017, the April 25 through May 1 reporting week
has more modest numbers. In fact, the average daily sunspot number
(124.6) is less than half the value (265.9) in the previous
bulletin.

Seven new sunspot groups appeared this week.

One new sunspot group emerged on April 25, another on April 27, two
more on April 29 and one each on April 30 and May 1.

Average daily solar flux shifted from 216 to 144.9.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 13.9 to 9.6.

The solar flux estimate for the next month has values peaking at 205
on May 15-16 and again on June 11-12.

The values are 135 on May 3, 132 on May 4-5, then 134 and 136 on May
6-7, 138 on May 8-9, then 140, 155, 160, 175 and 180 on May 10-14,
205 on May 15-16, then 200, 195, 190, 185, 180, and 165 on May
17-22, 145 on May 23-24, then 140, 135, 130, and 125 on May 25-28,
then 120, 115 and 120 May 29-31, 125 on June 1-2, 130, 145, and 150
June 3-5, 155 on June 6-7, then 160, 175 and 180 on June 8-10, and
205 on June 11-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 18, 20, 18 and 10 on May 3-6, 5 on
May 7-22, 15 on May 23, 12 on May 24-25, then 10, 8, 15, 18 and 10
on May 26-30, then 8 on May 31 through June 3, and 5 on June 4
through the middle of the month.
ÿ
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 2, 2024 from OK1HH.

"The number of sunspot groups at the present stage of the 11-year
cycle varies between five and twelve. Of these, one to three can be
described as active regions, whereby their size and magnetic
configuration suggest the possibility of energetic flares of
intermediate magnitude. A number of these are accompanied by CMEs,
which, given their position on the Sun, are expected to strike the
Earth. Therefore, predictions of increased geomagnetic activity are
quite often made, but most of them do not come true. Conversely, if
the Earth is affected, a geomagnetic disturbance so strong that it
affects the conditions for shortwave propagation will develop.

"CME collisions with the Earth have mainly caused magnetic storms
and subsequent deterioration of shortwave propagation on 21-22 April
and 27-28 April. Especially in the latter case, the recovery from
the disturbance was very slow, even multi-day, due in part to the
decrease in solar radiation. Added to this was another geomagnetic
disturbance in the late evening hours UTC on 30 April, which caused
a decrease in MUF and a worsening on 1 May."

NOAA article about Solar Cycle 25 progress:

https://bit.ly/3WshU2e[1]

In an email Thursday morning, Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, wrote:

"Region 3654 sure has been a point of contention this week. Despite
a lot of big flares, the eruptions that have occurred have been
rather unspectacular-- or so we all thought. Twice now, we have had
stealthy solar storms hit Earth. The first one that hit yesterday,
was not particularly impactful. In fact, for those who have been
following the news in our community chat here on Patreon, you have
seen me discuss the event there, instead of posting an official
'Snapshot.' I did this because that storm was weak and slow, without
much southward-pointing field. In other words, it was so
yawn-worthy, I haven't bothered to update my twitter feed with the
news.

"That all changed when yet another stealthy solar storm hit, just a
few hours ago. This one is much stronger. The top solar disk image
shows the source region for this event. It was an unimpressive event
in coronagraphs, with no clear Earthward directed signature.
However, it has a strong magnetic field, that is pointing southward,
and is fast. This one has given us G3-levels momentarily, but could
keep us at sustained G2-level conditions.

"Both of these events have eluded detection by several (if not all
of the big space weather forecasting agencies) so it is clear,
stealthy solar storms continue to be a problem through solar
maximum. I had been working on a formal forecast, but I am thinking
I will do an impromptu live forecast today since things are
unfolding faster than I can update my current work. Stay tuned. I
will likely go live this afternoon (PDT time), a few hours from now.
Till then, know that we could very easily hit G2-levels within the
next hour at SWPC, if conditions remain as they are."

From Universe Magazine, another Radio Blackout:

https://bit.ly/4bkCHsL[2]

There was another blackout on Thursday, when two CMEs caused a G3
geomagnetic storm. According to Spaceweather.com, another CME is
expected on May 4.

From NDTV, an earlier disturbance:

https://bit.ly/3UpNF9J[3]

From reader David Moore, an article on a fluffy corona:

https://bit.ly/3w9B3eP[4]

From The Daily Galaxy, Solar fury:

https://bit.ly/3UFE6Vg[5]

Cosmic rarity, But did they really need to reference astrology?

https://bit.ly/3wiEaAX[6]

From Space.com, more on Radio Blackouts:

https://bit.ly/3UIWyfW[7]

Another from Space.com about the Solar max:

https://bit.ly/3wjtr9o[8]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for April 25 through May 1 2024 were 196, 154, 126,
119, 88, 85, and 104 with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 166.7,
152.6, 152.6, 140.1, 137.6, 130.2, and 134.8, with a mean of 144.9.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 19, 12, 7, 6, 12, and 8, with
a mean of 9.6. Middle latitude A index was 3, 11, 12, 7, 7, 10, and
10, with a mean of 8.6.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3WshU2e
[2] https://bit.ly/4bkCHsL
[3] https://bit.ly/3UpNF9J
[4] https://bit.ly/3w9B3eP
[5] https://bit.ly/3UFE6Vg
[6] https://bit.ly/3wiEaAX
[7] https://bit.ly/3UIWyfW
[8] https://bit.ly/3wjtr9o
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/10/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2302 UTC/09 MAY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"Four halo CMEs first observed over 08-09 May are expected to arrive
at Earth on 10-May, starting at 1000 UTC +/- 10 hours. G4
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 10-May, reducing to G3 with a
chance of G4 on 11-May.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 10-12 MAY 2024.

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST:

"10 May: G4
11 May: G3, chance of G4
12 May: G1"

Six new sunspot groups appeared this reporting week, May 2-8, one
each day on May 2-4, two on May 5 and another on May 6. On May 9 two
more sunspot groups emerged, and the daily sunspot number rose to
170.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 124.6 to 138.3, and
average daily solar flux rose from 144.9 to 177.6.

Average daily planetary A index climbed from 9.6 to 14.4, while
middle latitude numbers went from 8.6 to 12.3.

The most active day was May 2, when the planetary A index was 44.
Alaska's College A index was 61. The cause was two CMEs striking
Earth, causing a G3 class geomagnetic storm.

The solar flux is peaking now and may peak again around June 11-12
at 205.

Predicted solar flux is 240 and 225 on May 10-11, 220 on May 12-13,
then 215 on May 14, then 210 on May 15-16, and 200, 195, 190, 185,
180, 175, 170, 165 and 170 on May 17-25, then 175 on May 26-27, 170
on May 28, then 165 on May 29-31, then 175, 180, 185, 190 and 185 on
June 1-5, 175 on June 6-9, 180 on June 10, 205 on June 11-12, then
200, 195, 190 and 185 on June 13-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 8, 12 and 10 on May 10-14, 5 on
May 15-22, then 8, 12, 8, 5, 12 and 8 on May 23-28, then 5, 5 and 8
on May 29-31, and 12 on June 1-3, then 8, 10, 5 and 5 on June 4-7,
then 8, 15 and 10 on June 8-10, and 5 on June 11-18.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - May 9, 2024 from OK1HH.

"This week, the number of sunspot groups was smaller than in
previous weeks (decreased from nine on Monday to six on Wednesday),
but two of them (AR3663 and AR3664) are really big. Moreover, both
have a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, indicating the
possibility of producing strong solar flares. Moderate flares
(M-class) were observed several times a day and large flares
(X-class) were not an exception.

"Although AR3663 is now approaching the northwestern limb of the
solar disk, the overall solar activity is certainly not decreasing,
quite the contrary: AR3664 continued to grow rapidly, and has merged
with neighboring AR3668 to rival the large Carrington spot of 1859
in size. If it were to produce a CME eruption similar to 1859, and
if the CME were to hit the Earth, the so-called 'Carrington Event'
could be repeated, with potentially devastating consequences for
power and communications grids.

"So far, on the lower shortwave bands, we have seen rapid and large
increases in attenuation during large flares, up to and including
disruption of communications for tens of minutes to hours. The
phenomenon is abbreviated SWF (Shortwave Fading), belongs to the SID
(Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance) group. SWF is named after two
physicists, John Howard Dellinger and Hans Mogel, as the Dellinger
effect, or sometimes Mogel-Dellinger effect.

"Solar flares with CMEs in the western half of the solar disk appear
to be followed by an increase in geomagnetic activity and a marked
fluctuation in shortwave propagation conditions around the weekend,
with a slow return to average conditions in the following days."

Recent reports from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGdPOsRgBIE[1]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo[2]

Today's large sunspot comparable to Carrington Event:

https://bit.ly/3Uxd94R[3]

Not like Carrington event:

https://bit.ly/4dA8eJ3[4]

Northern lights:

https://wapo.st/3UyKgp8[5]

https://bit.ly/3JX27kK[6]

https://bit.ly/3JUrbZr[7]

Really big sunspots:

https://bit.ly/44E2gTI[8]

Flare attacks Earth:

https://voi.id/en/technology/379507[9]

May 11 warning on X-Class Solar Flares:

https://bit.ly/4bv45o5[10]

Celestial onslaught of three Solar Flares:

https://bit.ly/4dAPDNk[11]

Solar storm train:

https://bit.ly/3wjypDl[12]

Aurora in Oregon and Washington.

https://bit.ly/4dvKDJE[13]

More on Solar Storms:

https://bit.ly/3JQv3e6[14]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[15]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[16] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[17] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[18] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[19] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[20] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[21]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[22] .

Sunspot numbers for May 2 through 8 2024 were 125, 121, 136, 152,
148, 144, and 142 with a mean of 138.3. 10.7 cm flux was 141.9, 156,
166.6, 176.9, 171.2, 203.6, and 227.1, with a mean of 177.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 44, 10, 6, 12, 15, 7, and 7, with
a mean of 14.4. Middle latitude A index was 24, 16, 5, 12, 13, 6,
and 10, with a mean of 12.3.

ÿ


[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CGdPOsRgBIE
[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo
[3] https://bit.ly/3Uxd94R
[4] https://bit.ly/4dA8eJ3
[5] https://wapo.st/3UyKgp8
[6] https://bit.ly/3JX27kK
[7] https://bit.ly/3JUrbZr
[8] https://bit.ly/44E2gTI
[9] https://voi.id/en/technology/379507
[10] https://bit.ly/4bv45o5
[11] https://bit.ly/4dAPDNk
[12] https://bit.ly/3wjypDl
[13] https://bit.ly/4dvKDJE
[14] https://bit.ly/3JQv3e6
[15] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[16] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[17] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[18] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[19] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[20] http://k9la.us/
[21] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[22] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

05/31/2024

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA ÿ

ZCZC AP20
QST de W1AWÿÿ
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 20ÿ ARLP020
From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WAÿ May 31, 2024
To all radio amateursÿ ÿ

SB PROP ARL ARLP020
ARLP020 Propagation de K7RA ÿ
Solar activity was quiet this week. Average daily sunspot number slipped from 155.1 to 124.6, and average solar flux from 198.9 to 164.8. ÿ

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet, with average planetary A index going from 13.9 to 7.9, and middle latitude A index from 11.7 to 9.

Eight new sunspot groups emerged, one on May 23, two on May 25, four on May 26, and one on May 28.

The outlook for the next month predicts solar flux at 175 on May 31 through June 6, then 210, 200, 195, 190, 185 and 180 on June 7-12, 170 on June 13-14, 165 on June 15, 190 on June 16-17, 185 on June 18, then 190 on June 19-20, then 185, 195 and 200 on June 21-23, then 210, 210 and 215 on June 24-26, 225 on June 27-29, 220 on June 30 through July 1, 210 on July 2-4, then 200, 195 and 190 on July 5-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 25 on May 31 and June 1, 5 on June 2-7, then 10, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on June 8-12, 5 on June 13-19 then 15 and 12 on June 20-21, then 5, 12, 8 and 5 on June 22-25, and 5, 10, 12, 12 and 8 on June 26-30, then 5 on July 1-4, then 10, 12, 8, 12 and 10 on July 5-9.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's Ionosphere from OK1HH.

"Over the past seven days, two active regions have returned to the solar disk where large solar flares with CMEs were observed during the last solar revolution. These were regions AR3663 and AR3664, now designated AR3691 and AR3697. The activity of the latter caused a major geomagnetic storm with auroras on 10 May, the largest in decades. Until these large groups of spots reach the center of the solar disk or near the central meridian (i.e., approximately June 6-7), solar activity will increase in a roughly 20-day fluctuation and then decrease again.

"Even the last major solar flare on May 29 afternoon UTC was observed in AR3697 and was accompanied by a CME. Part of the particle cloud will probably hit Earth sometime between late afternoon on June 1 and the morning of June 2. The onset of the phenomenon should be accompanied by an improvement in shortwave propagation conditions and a deterioration can be expected during its continuation on June 2.

"In the following days, due to increasing solar activity and a calmer state of the Earth's magnetosphere, shortwave propagation should improve again. However, if another large solar flare occurs, the development could be much more dramatic. Another reason for the current instability of shortwave conditions is the rise in Summer sporadic-E layer activity in the northern hemisphere.

Spaceweather.com reports NOAA forecasters say a G2 class geomagnetic storm is possible on May 31 when a CME grazes earth. But a NASA forecast suggests a near miss. This is from a CME at 1433 UTC on May 29 from sunspot group AR3664.

More on sunspot group AR3664: ÿ

https://bit.ly/4bAeJKA[1] ÿ

https://bit.ly/3wY48tT[2] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/2p9c98tm[3] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/mskr6ptb[4] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/ypnjcc6d[5] ÿ

https://tinyurl.com/2pvuk5db[6]

The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:
https://youtu.be/O2Y9QGLMvsc[7] ÿ

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[8]. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[9].

More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[10] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices: ÿ https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[11]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[12].

Sunspot numbers for May 23 through 29 2024 were 130, 100, 106, 148, 116, 141, and 131, with a mean of 124.6. 10.7 cm flux was 176.2, 162.8, 152.4, 155.6, 170, 166.4, and 170.5, with a mean of 164.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 9, 6, 10, 8, 6, and 6, with a mean of 7.9. Middle latitude A index was 10, 11, 6, 10, 9, 7, and 10, with a mean of 8.

NNNN
/EXÿ ÿÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/4bAeJKA
[2] https://bit.ly/3wY48tT
[3] https://tinyurl.com/2p9c98tm
[4] https://tinyurl.com/mskr6ptb
[5] https://tinyurl.com/ypnjcc6d
[6] https://tinyurl.com/2pvuk5db
[7] https://youtu.be/O2Y9QGLMvsc
[8] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[9] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[10] http://k9la.us/
[11] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[12] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/07/2024

This reporting week (May 30 to June 5) our Sun was active, with nine
new sunspot groups.

One emerged on May 30, another on May 31, two more on June 1,
another on June 2, three more on June 3, and one more on June 4.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 124.6 to 183.4, and average
daily solar flux from 164.8 to 184.8.

Predicted solar flux is 190 on June 7-9, 170 on June 10-19, 180 on
June 20, 190 on June 21-23, 195 on June 24 and 25, 200 on June 26,
205 on June 27-29, 180 on June 30, then 185, 185 and 180 on July
1-3, 175 on July 4-7, 180 and 175 on July 8-9, and 170 on July
10-16.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on June 7-9, 5 on June
10-18, 8 on June 19-20, then 5, 8 and 8 on June 21-23, and 5 on June
24 to July 6, then 8, 10, and 8 on July 7-9, and 5 on July 10-15.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 6, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"The rise in solar activity is confirmed by the average sunspot
number for May, 171.7, which is the highest in 22 years. Plugging
this into the formula for calculating the smoothed 12-month average
gives 127.8 for last November. As a consequence of the high solar
activity, including CME flares, there were a large number of
geomagnetic storms in May. The largest of these occurred on 10-11
May, while accompanied by auroras, easily observable even at
mid-latitudes.

"Shortwave conditions were above average on only six days out of the
entire month of May, and mostly poor on half of the days in response
to a total of seven one- to three-day disturbed intervals. The worst
day was May 11. In addition, a summertime sporadic-E layer
contributed to the erratic development, especially in the
mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

"While the two large sunspot groups, AR3663 and AR3664 (AR3691 and
AR3697 in June), continue to have a magnetic configuration conducive
to the production of large flares, there are fewer of them than in
May, and the evolution of propagation conditions is therefore more
regular, and the occurrence of above-average days is more frequent.
The number of sunspot groups increased from seven to twelve during
the first six days of June.

"Although the sunspot number and the solar flux (which is the power
flux of solar radio noise at the 10.7 cm wavelength) may still be
increasing, a repeat of the large disturbances experienced in May is
unlikely in the near term."

On June 3, Glenn Packard, K4ZOT, wrote:

"I just received your Propagation Report and was reading it when a
near miracle happened. Hawaii 6M FT8 station (KH6HI) came in on my
JTAlert program here - South of Atlanta, GA - 06/3.ÿ Also, worked
several west Coast stations (VE7DX, KF7PG, etc.) as well in rapid
succession before the band changed.ÿ Very rare indeed to even hear a
HI station in Atlanta."

An article about Astrophotographer Andrew McCarthy:

https://mymodernmet.com/andrew-mccarthy-sunspot-time-lapse/[1]

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/8WzEbOeWVfk[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[4] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[5] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[6] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[7] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[8] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[9]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[10] .

Sunspot numbers for May 30 through June 5, 2024 were 144, 135, 194,
186, 208, 224, and 193, with a mean of 183.4. 10.7 cm flux was
172.9, 179.4, 188, 179.8, 186, 192.3, and 195.3, with a mean of
184.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 8, 12, 5, 5, 11, 8, and 7,
with a mean of 8. Middle latitude A index was 10, 14, 6, 5, 13, 8,
and 10, with a mean of 9.4.

ÿ


[1] https://mymodernmet.com/andrew-mccarthy-sunspot-time-lapse/
[2] https://youtu.be/8WzEbOeWVfk
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[5] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[6] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] http://k9la.us/
[9] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[10] http://arrl.org/bulletins

---
þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/14/2024

"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0650 UTC/14 JUNE 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A weak halo CME may impact Earth either on late UTC day 15-Jun or
else early UTC day 16-Jun.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 15-16 JUNE 2024"

Solar activity was lower over the past reporting week, June 6-12.

Ten new sunspot groups emerged, two on June 6, one on June 7, two on
June 9, and five on June 12.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 44 points from 183.4 to
139.4, and average daily solar flux from 184.8 to 179.2.

Average daily planetary A index went from 8 to 11.6, and middle
latitude numbers from 9.4 to 11.1.

The most active day geomagnetically was June 7, when the planetary A
index was 28. Alaska's College A index was 38. This was an
unexpected G2 geomagnetic storm that commenced at 1130 UTC.

Spaceweather.com[1] reports a polar cap absorption event on June 12-13.
Protons from the Sun are raining down on Earth, and it is causing
shortwave blackouts. You can monitor it here:

https://bit.ly/3Vpopko[2]

Predicted solar flux shows a peak at 205 on June 26-29 and again on
July 23-26.

The forecast shows flux at 170 on June 14, 175 on June 15-17, then
180 on June 18-20, then 185, 190 and 195 on June 21-23, 200 on June
24-25, 205 on June 26-29, then 200, 190, 180, 175, 170, 165, 160 and
175 on June 30 through July 7, then 170 on July 8-9, 165 on July
10-11, 155 on July 12-13, then 165 and 175 on July 14-15, 185 on
July 16-18, then 190, 195 and 200 on July 19-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 12 and 15 on June 14-16, then 8 on
June 17-18, then 5 on June 19-21, then 8 on Jun 22-23, then 5 on
June 24-29, 8 on June 30 and July 1, and 5 on July 2-6, then 8 on
July 7, 5 on July 8-15, then 8, 8, 5, 8 and 8 on July on July 16-20.

"Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 13, 2024, from OK1HH:

"Despite the fact that the large sunspot group responsible for the
geomagnetic disturbances and the beautiful auroras of May 10-11 is
now on the far side of the Sun, its flares are showering the Earth's surroundings with a rain of protons. On the whole, however, there is
no doubt that after its reappearance at the eastern edge of the
solar disk, solar activity will again increase significantly, with
solar flux values exceeding 200 in late June and early July.

"For now, we will be content with the consequences of a slight
decrease in overall solar activity, although moderate solar flares
are no exception. Upswells in geomagnetic activity occur only
occasionally and most days are quiet to unsettled. Summer prevails
in the Earth's northern hemisphere, and sporadic-E layer events
contribute even more than solar events to the erratic shortwave
propagation conditions here.

"With the exception of the two largest active regions, however,
there is little going on at present on the far side of the Sun, and
so July already seems to be considerably quieter than May and June
were."

Radiation risks for Mars astronauts:

https://bit.ly/4b272M7[3]

Viewing sunspots from Mars:

https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87[4]

May solar images from various online sources:

https://bit.ly/45lmVvS[5]

https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb[6]

https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse[7]

https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/[8]

Next weekend is ARRL Field Day, June 22-23. Solar flux and sunspot
numbers should be rising at that time, and predicted planetary A
index is a moderate 8.

There will be an updated forecast in next week's bulletin.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article about Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for June 6 through 12 2024 were 149, 150, 143, 148,
146, 95, and 145, with a mean of 139.4. 10.7 cm flux was 190.9,
184.4, 190.4, 180.9, 177.8, 164.9, and 164.9, with a mean of 179.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 28, 14, 5, 11, 12, and 5, with
a mean of 11.6. Middle latitude A index was 7, 20, 15, 6, 11, 13,
and 6, with a mean of 11.1.
ÿ


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://bit.ly/3Vpopko
[3] https://bit.ly/4b272M7
[4] https://go.nasa.gov/3RsTP87
[5] https://bit.ly/45lmVvS
[6] https://bit.ly/3VFwCCb
[7] https://www.space.com/sun-solar-storm-may-10-timelapse
[8] https://bigthink.com/hard-science/sun-activity-2024/
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

06/21/2024

Sunspot numbers rose this week, with the average changing from 139.4
to 149.6, but average daily solar flux only shifted from 179.2 to
178.

Only four sunspot groups emerged this week. There was one on June 15
and three on June 19.

Average daily planetary A index only changed from 11.6 to 10.3.

Predicted solar flux is 205 and 210 on June 21-22, then 200 June
23-27, then 190, 185, and 190, on June 28-30, then 190, 195, 190,
185 and 190 on July 1-5, 180 on July 6-7, 165 on July 8-9, 180 on
July 10, then 170 on July 11-13, 175 on July 14, 180 on July 15-17,
175 on July 18-19, 190 on July 20-21, then 180, 175, 180, 190, 180,
185 and 190 on July 22-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 12 and 10 on June 21-23, then 5
on June 24-29, 8 on Jun 30 to July 1, then 5 on July 2-14, then 12,
8, 8, and 5 on July 15-18, 8 on July 19-20, and 5 on July 21-26,
then 8 on July 27-28.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere - June 20, 2024, from OK1HH.

F.K. Janda is going on vacation and will not have a report for us
over the next few weeks.

"Watching the Sun at its current 11-year peak of activity is
certainly not boring. On the contrary, we are experiencing quite
frequent surprises. For example, a week ago we observed an increased attenuation of radio waves in the polar region (PCA = POLAR CAP
ABSORPTION EVENT), caused by protons coming from the far side of the
Sun. Then, on 15 June (at 1157 UTC), a cloud of particles
unexpectedly hit the Earth, triggering a weak G1 class geomagnetic
storm.

"Over the next few days, AR3712 became larger, followed by AR3713
and AR3716. All three of these large sunspot groups are already
located in the western half of the solar disk, where particles from
a possible larger flare are more likely to hit Earth. In addition,
all three regions have an unstable magnetic field and are therefore
more likely to have M- or X-class flares.

"Of the largest sunspot groups observed this cycle, two will soon
reappear on the eastern limb of the solar disk (in May they were
designated AR3663 and AR3664). The first of these will begin to
emerge on the solar disk this weekend. The second, and then largest
group, will follow a few days after that. Fortunately, solar
activity will remain high, but unfortunately, changes in propagation
conditions will be harder to predict."

From the European Space Agency:

https://bit.ly/3VQt54j[1]

AR3712 and flares:

https://bit.ly/3xiIGAa[2]

Reverse magnetic field:

https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/[3]

This video about the Sun's corona is undated:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw[4]

Polar cap absorption event:

https://bit.ly/3REcY7b[5]

https://bit.ly/3REhuTb[6]

Latest videos from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4[7]

https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w[8]

This weekend is ARRL Field Day, and the forecast looks good, with
high solar flux at 200 and 190.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[9]. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[10] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[11] . For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[12] .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation[13] . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/[14] .

Also, check this QST article on Solar Indices:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[15]

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins[16] .

Sunspot numbers for June 13 through 19 2024 were 142, 117, 134, 152,
171, 150, and 181, with a mean of 149.6. 10.7 cm flux was 170.1,
169, 170.7, 167.3, 179.9, 192.7, and 196, with a mean of 178.
Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 6, 19, 13, 11, 10, and 9, with
a mean of 10.3. Middle latitude A index was 5, 8, 18, 9, 11, 11, and
9, with a mean of 10.1.

ÿ


[1] https://bit.ly/3VQt54j
[2] https://bit.ly/3xiIGAa
[3] https://gigazine.net/gsc_news/en/20240617-sun-magnetic-field-flip/
[4] https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x90o8gw
[5] https://bit.ly/3REcY7b
[6] https://bit.ly/3REhuTb
[7] https://youtu.be/J3XdqnWYNh4
[8] https://youtu.be/tzfvKObBf_w
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[11] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[12] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[13] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[14] http://k9la.us/
[15] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
[16] http://arrl.org/bulletins

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þ Synchronet þ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS