332=20
AXNT20 KNHC 170900 CCA
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025

Corrected Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected

Atlantic Large Swell Event:=20
Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over
the Atlantic waters north of the discussion area will support
rough to very rough seas over the western Atlantic through this
weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into
the discussion waters between 60W and 70W beginning today. The
area of 12 ft and greater seas will spread southeastward on Sat,
covering the waters north of 27N between 50W and 69W by Sat night.
The swell will then start to subside over the discussion waters=20
allowing or seas to drop below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this=20
swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters north of about 30N=20
between 55W and 65W on Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!_ZfFy1-jhRUjZeX-O557IVKbChBzAPn0EjDxyOCzq47s0ioET5Vx9jDyZLi3Q8m-1= lDspZGueh57VxiezkoLDS1qfSk$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 05N
to 17N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Its position is
based on satellite imagery animation, further corroborated by a=20
recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Numerous moderate to strong=20
convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to=20
11N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within=20
180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N. Some gradual development=20
of this system is possible over the next several days as it=20
continues westward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and=20
gusty winds are possible as the system moves across the Windward=20
Islands late this weekend and enters the Caribbean Sea by the=20
early to middle part of next week.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from=20
04N to 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate=20
to strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the
wave from 08N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and=20
extends southwestward to near 06N21W, where it transitions to=20
the ITCZ to 06N25W and northwestward to 08N35W. Aside from=20
convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between
26W-31W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-26W and=20
within 120 nm south of the trough between 17W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and just offshore the coast of=20
Africa from 06N to 10N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf near 26N95W
southeastward to southeastward to the northeast part of the=20
Yucatan Peninsula and to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Isolated
mostly weak showers are within 60 nm east of the trough from 23N=20
to 26N and northwest of the trough from 26N to 29N between 93W and
96W. Otherwise, relatively weak high is present over the NE and=20 north-central Gulf sections. The associated pressure gradient is=20
generally supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds=20
from 24N to 28N east of 94W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with these winds.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with seas of 2 to 3 ft,
except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the west-central and=20
SW portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate=20
the Gulf region through early next week, resulting in gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin.
A cold front may reach the northern Gulf waters by Sun nigh and=20
stall over the northern waters early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal trough extends from NW Haiti, to just south of eastern
Cuba, and to just east of the northeast portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered showers
and thunderstorms along and near this boundary. Recent
scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle
north to northeast winds north of the boundary, with the exception=20
of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba to near
the coast of Cuba between 78W and 79W, and also between 80W and=20
82W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the rest of the=20
Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate south winds are noted over=20
the far eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds elsewhere.=20
Seas remain in the 2 to 4 ft range in the far eastern Caribbean,=20
and 2 ft or less elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate=20
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the=20
basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical=20
Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and=20
rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to
enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh=20
winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details=20
on a large swell event that will begin to impact some sections of
the north-central waters today.

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N52W
southwestward to 24N60W, where it transitions to a stationary=20
front that continues southwestward to just inland northern
Hispaniola. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms, some=20
heavy, are along both the cold and stationary the fronts as well=20
as within about 240 nm east-southeast of the fronts. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are east and southeast of the fronts to=20
near 45W and north of 19N. Seas with these winds are 8 to 12 ft,=20
with the highest of the seas north of 27N between 48W and the=20
front. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds and locally rough=20
seas are west of the front. To the NW of the front, another cold=20
front extends from near 31N62W southwestward to 28N68W and to near=20
the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are=20
behind this front to 74W, and fresh north to northeast winds are=20
west of 74W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in north to northeast swell behind=20
the front north of 28N. Fresh north to northeast winds are behind=20
the front from 26N to 28N along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in northeast=20
swell.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from near 30.5N33W to 28N35W
and to 24N36W. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are=20
within the surrounding environment of this trough, and seas of
8 to 12 ft are 24.5N38W, and fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas are noted in the vicinity of this trough. A 1018 mb high is=20
located near 24N30W. Its associated ridge extends west-
southwestward to just east of the Lesser Antilles. The related
gradient is producing gentle to moderate trade winds south of=20
20N to near 17N between 26W and 48W, and mostly northeast to=20
east winds from 10N to 20N between 26W and 48W. Seas are 5 to 7=20
ft with these winds, except for 4 to 6 ft seas from 10N to 20N
between 26W and 48W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes=20
indicate fresh to strong north winds between the coast of W Africa
and 20W. Seas are 7 to 8 ft within this area. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere over the region.

For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move=20
across the forecast waters through Sat. High pressure will then=20
build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are=20
expected over the waters north of about 25N through Sat before=20
winds diminish. The fronts will usher in northerly swell across=20
the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters N of 25N=20
through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover=20
much of the waters east of 70W by early Sun. Seas will then=20
subside from west to east the remainder of the weekend into early=20
next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters north of=20
27N and east of 70W from early on Fri through Sun morning.=20

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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482=20
AXNT20 KNHC 170902 CCA
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025

Corrected Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected

Atlantic Large Swell Event:=20
Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over
the Atlantic waters north of the discussion area will support
rough to very rough seas over the western Atlantic through this
weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into
the discussion waters between 60W and 70W beginning today. The
area of 12 ft and greater seas will spread southeastward on Sat,
covering the waters north of 27N between 50W and 69W by Sat night.
The swell will then start to subside over the discussion waters=20
allowing or seas to drop below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this=20
swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters north of about 30N=20
between 55W and 65W on Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!4L-9lampEjfk1vKL_xKrFgNpohdMsu7N01i1OzQkjNqokkej7r46t-jmAovqoLvhU= Ca4dVHrDtyuebW4rSYzIEBFBBc$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 05N
to 17N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Its position is
based on satellite imagery animation, further corroborated by a=20
recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Numerous moderate to strong=20
convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 08N to=20
11N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within=20
180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N. Some gradual development=20
of this system is possible over the next several days as it=20
continues westward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and=20
gusty winds are possible as the system moves across the Windward=20
Islands late this weekend and enters the Caribbean Sea by the=20
early to middle part of next week.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from=20
04N to 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate=20
to strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the
wave from 08N to 11N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and=20
extends southwestward to near 06N21W, where it transitions to=20
the ITCZ to 06N25W and northwestward to 08N35W. Aside from=20
convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between
26W-31W, within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 23W-26W and=20
within 120 nm south of the trough between 17W-20W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and just offshore the coast of=20
Africa from 06N to 10N.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from the central Gulf near 26N95W
southeastward to southeastward to the northeast part of the=20
Yucatan Peninsula and to the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Isolated
mostly weak showers are within 60 nm east of the trough from 23N=20
to 26N and northwest of the trough from 26N to 29N between 93W and
96W. Otherwise, relatively weak high is present over the NE and=20 north-central Gulf sections. The associated pressure gradient is=20
generally supporting gentle to moderate northeast to east winds=20
from 24N to 28N east of 94W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with these winds.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with seas of 2 to 3 ft,
except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the west-central and=20
SW portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will dominate=20
the Gulf region through early next week, resulting in gentle to=20
moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin.
A cold front may reach the northern Gulf waters by Sun nigh and=20
stall over the northern waters early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal trough extends from NW Haiti, to just south of eastern
Cuba, and to just east of the northeast portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered showers
and thunderstorms along and near this boundary. Recent
scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle
north to northeast winds north of the boundary, with the exception=20
of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba to near
the coast of Cuba between 78W and 79W, and also between 80W and=20
82W. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the rest of the=20
Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate south winds are noted over=20
the far eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds elsewhere.=20
Seas remain in the 2 to 4 ft range in the far eastern Caribbean,=20
and 2 ft or less elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate=20
or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the=20
basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical=20
Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and=20
rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to
enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh=20
winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters.=20

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details=20
on a large swell event that will begin to impact some sections of
the north-central TAFB waters today.

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N52W
southwestward to 24N60W, where it transitions to a stationary=20
front that continues southwestward to just inland northern
Hispaniola. Clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms, some=20
heavy, are along both the cold and stationary the fronts as well=20
as within about 240 nm east-southeast of the fronts. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are east and southeast of the fronts to=20
near 45W and north of 19N. Seas with these winds are 8 to 12 ft,=20
with the highest of the seas north of 27N between 48W and the=20
front. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds and locally rough=20
seas are west of the front. To the NW of the front, another cold=20
front extends from near 31N62W southwestward to 28N68W and to near=20
the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are=20
behind this front to 74W, and fresh north to northeast winds are=20
west of 74W. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in north to northeast swell behind=20
the front north of 28N. Fresh north to northeast winds are behind=20
the front from 26N to 28N along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in northeast=20 long-period swell.

Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from near 30.5N33W to 28N35W
and to 24N36W. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are=20
within the surrounding environment of this trough, and seas of
8 to 12 ft are 24.5N38W, and fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft
seas are noted in the vicinity of this trough. A 1018 mb high is=20
located near 24N30W. Its associated ridge extends west-
southwestward to just east of the Lesser Antilles. The related=20
pressure gradient is producing gentle to moderate trade winds south=20
of 20N to near 17N between 26W and 48W, and mostly northeast to east=20
winds from 10N to 20N between 26W and 48W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with=20
these winds, except for 4 to 6 ft seas from 10N to 20N between 26W=20
and 48W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate fresh=20
to strong north winds between the coast of W Africa and 20W. Seas=20
are 7 to 8 ft within this area. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere over=20
the region.

For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move=20
across the forecast waters through Sat. High pressure will then=20
build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are=20
expected over the waters north of about 25N through Sat before=20
winds diminish. The fronts will usher in northerly swell across=20
the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters N of 25N=20
through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover=20
much of the waters east of 70W by early Sun. Seas will then=20
subside from west to east the remainder of the weekend into early=20
next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters north of=20
27N and east of 70W from early on Fri through Sun morning.=20

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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843=20
AXNT20 KNHC 180838 CCA
TWDAT=20

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Oct 18 2025

Corrected Special Features section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through=20
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Large Swell Event:=20
Northerly swell generated from a storm force low over the Atlantic
waters north of the discussion area will support rough to very
rough seas over the western Atlantic through this weekend. Seas in
excess of 12 ft and greater, with period of 12-14 seconds will=20
continue to spread southeastward on Sat, covering the waters north
of 27N between 43W and 70W by Sat night. The swell will then=20
start to subside over the discussion waters allowing for seas to=20
drop below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this swell will peak near 18=20
ft over the waters north of about 30N between 50W and 65W today.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National=20
Hurricane Center at website -=20 https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__= ;!!DZ3fjg!_Mx7rS7zYpUxQArJn3txVWArfGrsAhLWLCIPlOzUgcSZw52unr0cd9ZObeaSG_93t= A2Gj1OJ5WTprx9j06fXGcOjVbw$ for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 18W from=20
from 02N to 16N moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate=20
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave=20
from 06N to 09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W from 02N=20
to 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to=20
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the=20
wave from 05N to 08N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 04N
to 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Earlier observed scattered=20
moderate to isolated strong convection has diminished. Scattered=20
moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 12N between the
wave 48W from 07N to 13N. A 2312Z ASCAT pass showed fresh to=20
strong northeast to southeast winds across the wave axis from 11N=20
to 14.5N. Gradual development of this system is possible over the=20
next several days while it moves generally westward. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and=20
gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend, then move=20
across the Caribbean Sea much of next week. This wave has a low=20
chance of tropical development within the next 7 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 55W south of
16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to=20
isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 52W=20
and 59W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm=20
either side of the wave from 08N to 13N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...=20

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and=20
extends southwestward to near 05N26W and west to 05N32W, where=20
it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N38W. Aside from convection
related with the tropical waves as described above, scattered=20
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of=20
the trough between 20W-30W and also between 32W-37W.
=20
...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure ridging extends southwestward from high pressure of
1018 mb that is centered along the southeastern U.S coast to the=20
NE Gulf. The related pressure gradient is allowing for generally
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds north of about 22N east
of 94W, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the range=20
of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the=20 north-central Gulf, the NE and in the southeastern Gulf, with
the exception of the Straits of Florida where higher seas of 5 to
7 ft are present. Isolated small showers are over the NW Gulf=20
from 26N to 28N between 92W and 94W, otherwise ample dry sinking=20
air aloft is inhibiting convection from forming over the basin, at
least for the time being.

For the forecast, moderate east to southeast winds and slight to=20
moderate seas are expected over much of the Gulf through late Sat=20
as high pressure prevails over the southeastern United States.=20
Occasionally fresh east winds will be possible in the central and
eastern basin. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on=20
Sun and progress southeastward across the basin into early next=20
week. Moderate to locally fresh north to northeast winds are=20
expected in the wake of the front Sun into Mon. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front, with generally moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas returning over the region.=20

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal trough extends from Hispaniola, to Jamaica and northwest
to just east of the northeast portion of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms near
the trough. This activity is more concentrated over the eastern=20
portion of Hispaniola reaching eastward to the Mona Passage and=20
just offshore the western part of Puerto Rico. Otherwise, a weak=20
pressure gradient is generally supporting gentle to moderate east
to southeast winds east of about 67W, and light to gentle winds=20
elsewhere as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data passes.=20
Recent altimeter satellite data passes indicated seas in the=20
range of 2 to 4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, light to gentle, with locally moderate, winds=20
and slight seas are expected over the Caribbean through Sat.=20
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will=20
develop over the central and eastern Caribbean this weekend as=20
high pressure builds N of the area. Fresh to strong winds and=20
rough seas will accompany a tropical wave as it moves across the=20
tropical Atlantic waters this weekend. The wave will move into the
eastern Caribbean Sun night. Gradual development of this system=20
is possible over the next several days. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to bring building seas, heavy rainfall and=20
gusty winds over the tropical Atlantic waters this weekend, and=20
across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for further details=20
on a large swell event that will continue to impact some sections
of the north-central waters through the weekend.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N54W southwestward to 29N55W
and to 24N70W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the=20
central Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are presently north of 22N=20
east of the front, and also north of 27N west of the front to 70W.
To the east, a 1007 mb low is north of the area at 33N34W. A
second cold front extends from the low southwestward to near=20
25N55W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 21N63W, and=20
as frontal trough from there to across Hispaniola and to the=20
north-central Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery shows scattered=20
showers and thunderstorms along the stationary front and trough,=20
with the activity extending within 60 nm south of the trough.=20
Moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas are noted between the=20
fronts. High pressure located along the coast of the Carolinas
is shifting eastward, with its associated ridging building=20
southeastward across the northwest part of the area. In the=20
eastern part of the Atlantic, a weak 1018 mb high center is near=20
23N33W. Light to gentle winds are around the high center, while=20
gentle to moderate winds mostly remain elsewhere. Seas are in the=20
moderate range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned first cold front=20
will propagate southeastward and stall along 22N this weekend.=20
Winds will diminish from west to east through late Sat into Sun.=20
Widespread rough seas prevail north of 20N and east of 60W, and=20
north of 26N between 60W and 75W. Very rough seas over 12 ft can=20
be expected north of 25N and east of 71W through Sun. The rough=20
seas will spread southeastward covering most of the waters east of
75W by early on Sun, then will slowly subside from west to east Sun=20
into next week. High pressure will continue to build in behind
the front, with improving conditions early next week.=20

$$
Aguirre

=3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D =3D
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