1. Forum
  2. Fidonet
  3. WEATHER.TROPIC

  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 15 02:31:14 2025
    567
    WTNT42 KNHC 150231
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
    1100 PM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

    Lorenzo continues to struggle this evening, with convective
    organization. However, satellite images depict that there has been
    a recent burst of convection near the center of the system, although
    these bursts have been intermittent throughout the day. Subjective
    and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt.
    Given the convection has only just recently returned over the
    center, the initial intensity will be held at 35 kt for this
    advisory.

    The storm is moving north-northwestward at an estimated motion of
    345/10 kt. A turn to the north is expected overnight as the system
    rounds the western edge of a subtropical ridge, followed by an
    accelerated northeastward motion throughout the rest of the forecast
    period as the system becomes engulfed in the flow of an approaching
    trough from the west. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
    previous, just a little faster and lies between the simple and
    corrected consensus aids.

    The drier air and wind shear have continued to take their toll on
    Lorenzo, with convection remaining disorganized. As Lorenzo begins
    to accelerate the system is anticipated to struggle to produce
    organized convection and maintain a closed circulation, eventually
    opening into a trough. The latest NHC intensity forecast moved up
    dissipation to 48 h, although most global models show Lorenzo
    opening into a trough and dissipating even sooner.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 15/0300Z 19.6N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 15/1200Z 21.3N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
    24H 16/0000Z 24.0N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
    36H 16/1200Z 26.9N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
    48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Kelly


    = = = = = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-ATLAN and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-ATLAN.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)