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  • STRMDISC: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 14 14:35:20 2025
    187
    WTNT42 KNHC 141435
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025
    1100 AM AST Tue Oct 14 2025

    Lorenzo remains a poorly organized storm over the tropical central
    Atlantic. The system is producing a few clusters of deep
    convection, one of which is currently over the low-level center. The
    satellite intensity estimates have come down and now range from 30
    to 39 kt. In addition, very recent ASCAT passes show peak winds of
    about 35 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered
    to 40 kt.

    Lorenzo continues to move northwestward at 13 kt. A turn to the
    north is expected later today as the storm moves into a weakness in
    the subtropical ridge. On Wednesday, the storm is likely to turn
    northeastward when it moves in the flow between an approaching
    mid-to upper-level trough and the subtropical ridge over the eastern
    Atlantic. If the storm survives, the system could turn eastward or southeastward this weekend on the northern periphery of the ridge.
    The track guidance is in fair agreement, and no big changes were
    made to the previous prediction.

    The storm is currently embedded in a sheared and dry environment,
    and those conditions are expected to persist during the next several
    days. The model guidance shows little to no strengthening. In
    fact, most of the global models show Lorenzo remaining lopsided, and
    then opening up into a trough within the next few days. Based on a
    combination of the models and the lower initial intensity, the NHC
    intensity forecast has again been nudged downward, and now shows
    dissipation occurring by day 4.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 14/1500Z 18.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 45.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 16/0000Z 24.7N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
    48H 16/1200Z 27.3N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
    60H 17/0000Z 29.4N 35.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
    72H 17/1200Z 29.9N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
    96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi


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