• FORECAST: Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast/advisory Number 4

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-atlan@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 14 02:46:31 2025
    453
    WTNT22 KNHC 140246
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
    0300 UTC TUE OCT 14 2025

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 42.8W AT 14/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
    50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT....... 90NE 150SE 20SW 90NW.
    4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 30SW 90NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 42.8W AT 14/0300Z
    AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 42.3W

    FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 43.9W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 50NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.3N 44.5W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.6N 44.2W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.3N 41.9W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

    FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.6N 39.0W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

    FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.0N 35.0W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 29.0N 28.9W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
    34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.

    OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 26.0N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 42.8W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE



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