ACUS11 KWNS 302047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302047=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the eastern TX Panhandle...southwest
OK...and the Rolling Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 302047Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe wind gusts are
possible with any storms that develop this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is quickly deepening along a north/south-oriented dryline in parts of the central/eastern TX
Panhandle into the Cap Rock and Rolling Plains. Confidence is
increasing that isolated thunderstorms will develop over the next
hour or so. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures have warmed into the
lower 90s amid lower 60s dewpoints, yielding a moderately unstable pre-convective air mass. This buoyancy, coupled with around 30 kt of
effective shear, will conditionally favor a couple organized cells
capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts. It is
unclear if a watch will be needed, given the potentially isolated
storm coverage, though convective trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6j1nIhWcVgruvpyer3gCZHnupd9WsBysry-hGlLsY6cAj73DfCmD8UML2SPpn2XP0_7exUfGH= U8D6LpwHdrK1L3XbQs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33020118 33570117 34520103 34990090 35330068 35470029
35429953 35199918 34449902 33839914 33069944 32799983
32820087 33020118=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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