ACUS11 KWNS 302011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302010=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-302215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0905
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS...southwest MO...northern/central
AR...and far northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 302010Z - 302215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be
possible with the stronger storms that evolve through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity ahead of remnant outflow in southeast KS/southwest MO and
within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow extending
southward into central AR. While large-scale forcing for ascent is
weak, a moist and uncapped air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) will
continue to promote widely spaced thunderstorms through this
corridor for the remainder of the afternoon. While the severe risk
is expected to remain somewhat unfocused, a strongly unstable air
mass and 30-40 kt of effective shear will favor a few organized
clusters and perhaps supercell structures. Isolated severe hail and
locally damaging gusts are possible with the stronger/loner-lived
cells. A watch is not currently expected, though convective trends
are being monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7OQlhuTreDQmFwyhMSAgTkqyLMJmeZG0vdP76fNMCcYZ6AipRShGkKchbjhxj1Hi5UydhJodD= GlXQ49KxAIYlvhnKkQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 34419348 35169401 36069466 36649520 37129591 37609598
37929563 38059508 37889368 37389257 36769191 35819152
34659150 34199203 34119272 34419348=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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