ACUS11 KWNS 301928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301928=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-302200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0904
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Areas affected...Much of central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301928Z - 302200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase over the next few hours
before spreading east-northeastward through late afternoon into this
evening. The primary concerns will be large hail and scattered
severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery shows an expanding
cumulus field behind the dryline in southwest KS, with isolated
towers beginning to develop within the dryline circulation. As
temperatures continue to climb into the middle 90s along/west of the
dryline, the deepening circulation should promote isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Despite
somewhat modest deep-layer shear (around 25-35 kt of effective
shear), steep lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer (upper 60s
dewpoints) are contributing to a strongly unstable warm sector --
favorable for quickly intensifying updrafts and robust downdrafts.
The early stages of convective development/intensification should be characterized by a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized
clusters -- both posing a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts.=20

With time, an increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected along
the dryline and expanding cold pools, which will favor a band of upscale-growing clusters and strengthening outflow within an axis of
(~4000 J/kg MLCAPE). This evolution will promote scattered severe
wind gusts with east-northeastward extent across central KS. A
gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ will yield expanding low-level
hodographs and some increase in tornado potential this evening.
However, the aforementioned mode evolution limits confidence in the
overall risk.=20=20

While timing of convective development and maturation is a bit
uncertain, a watch issuance is likely.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91xZ1UautSNB2NCNWHw18Gtl1m1hFQ35ekEWUsR-KGP6Ca_6su1pbLM1E2I8NpBAIrc-x8uLQ= tetnD1hHq8aBSafjPE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 36359813 36499898 36889941 37479967 38779990 39360036
39710029 39909996 39989922 39969832 39759764 39479721
38799676 37409657 36759673 36399723 36359813=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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