ACUS11 KWNS 292306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292305=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-300100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0898
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...northwest Kansas...and extreme
southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 292305Z - 300100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across the area will continue to pose a
threat for marginally severe hail and wind. The threat should
diminish later this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. A
watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of multicell thunderstorms
has developed across the plains of eastern Colorado. These storms
appear to be in response to deep boundary layer circulations
combining with modest large-scale ascent associated with the
northern edge of a weak vorticity maximum moving within the broader mid-to-upper-level southwesterly flow.=20

The thermodynamic environment is quite unstable, with objectively
analyzed MUCAPE fields between 2000-3000 J/kg along and ahead of the
cluster. Kinematically speaking, the environment is only marginally
supportive of loosely organized multicell clusters given deep-layer
shear generally between 20 and 30 knots.=20

The degree of instability would support marginally severe hail.
Recent observed dewpoint trends show decreasing surface dewpoint
temperatures across the area, which would suggest steep
low-level-lapse rates and strong vertical mixing. This dry sub-cloud
layer should support some severe wind potential as well.=20

If this cluster can sustain itself into the evening hours as it
moves northeast, a brief uptick in severe potential will be possible
around sunset as the nocturnal low-level wind maximum strengthens,
increasing shear across the complex. However, thunderstorm intensity
should generally wane with the loss of diurnal heating.=20

A watch is not anticipated given the limited spatial and temporal
threat. However, the area is being monitored.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7QPgOqVO3w0kTG1LFJNZKPTmPkTw_910GUJav3qkFNVvIIWHbnzDJZfRGGzF7fDwcJSOV6AS1= josNmRlrRjRhja1caM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 38520264 39280294 39770302 40260282 40470163 40440113
40140077 39850050 39450041 38860068 38540120 38350202
38520264=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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