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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0894

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 29 20:17:10 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 292017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292016=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0894
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

    Areas affected...Western/northern OK into parts of the eastern TX/OK
    Panhandles and extreme southern KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292016Z - 292145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will be possible from late
    afternoon into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Morning convection across parts of northern/central OK
    has diminished this afternoon, with relatively strong heating and destabilization underway across parts of western and northern OK. A
    surface confluence zone extends from central into northwest OK, with
    the strongest heating noted to the south of this zone across west-central/southwest OK, and relatively backed low-level flow
    observed near/north of this zone. As MLCINH weakens and a compact
    midlevel shortwave trough moves from the TX Panhandle into northern
    OK, at least isolated storm development will be possible by 4-6 PM
    CDT, with some increase in coverage expected into the evening.=20

    Moderate to strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts as storms
    mature from late afternoon into the evening. Mid/upper-level flow is
    currently rather weak, though some increase is expected into early
    evening. Effective shear will be maximized where surface winds
    remain backed, and a supercell or two could evolve with time, with a
    threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and
    possibly a brief tornado. Outflow consolidation may eventually lead
    to a corridor of somewhat greater severe-wind threat across northern
    OK and far southern KS. Watch issuance is possible across parts of
    the region later this afternoon.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/29/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ChT6DcXe7gvKPyq3kqc7TUx6NsufIYWvz-eOKl1N40KJRu2cvxfQYU49E-LGmwt6Io8wemjf= Jlr9iSDSqdjCoNRbWc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

    LAT...LON 35569814 35339875 35219945 35349980 35550018 36270058
    36890080 37209922 37259809 37209717 36729683 36429676
    36059673 35919704 35779764 35569814=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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