ACUS11 KWNS 291931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291930=20
MTZ000-IDZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the northern Rockies

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 291930Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may produce isolated large hail and
severe winds this afternoon into the early evening. A watch is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase within the higher
terrain of western Montana. A few thunderstorms have also developed
within the last hour. A belt of southerly upper level winds is
promoting around 30 kt of effective shear per the KMSX VAD.
Temperatures may remain a bit on the cool side, especially now that
anvil clouds are spreading north. Some locations of northwest
Montana may be able to warm further by late afternoon. Overall, 1000
to perhaps near 1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected. Given the low 50s
F dewpoints within the higher terrain, scattered storms are
probable. This may lead to numerous storm interactions since the
deep-layer shear is somewhat marginal. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon/early
evening.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FhdojLnFwNSR4dEA1HMua6k4ldxfAVk-SvF2aEiObPIMdwnyIKeAJXTYVQJXDji_uM2ALNd1= 7KFZo3rKV67D-DuCbs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON 45501444 46391518 47931512 48631412 48881366 49061327
49001286 48651253 46441193 46031223 45501444=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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