ACUS11 KWNS 291930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291929=20
TXZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains/Permian Basin vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291929Z - 292130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms may develop by 4-5 PM CDT, with a threat of
hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating is underway across parts of
west TX this afternoon, though some areas of mid/upper-level clouds
persist. Low-level south/southeasterly flow to the east of a weak
surface trough is maintaining sufficient low-level moisture for
moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1500
J/kg across parts of the TX South Plains and Permian Basin.
Decreasing CINH and a subtle midlevel shortwave trough near the
TX/NM border will support scattered thunderstorm development by late
afternoon. An approaching mid/upper-level subtropical jet maximum
will lead to strengthening deep-layer shear (with effective shear of
40+ kt), and a few organized cells or clusters may evolve with time.

Isolated large hail will be possible, including conditional
potential for 2+ inch diameter hail if any sustained supercells
develop. Relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates will
encourage increasing outflow with time, with an attendant threat of
at least isolated severe gusts (potentially 75+ mph). Issuance of
one or more watches is possible later this afternoon in order to
address these threats.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pVktxxWYDvOnn0YFbHLy2LxALfh1coYlEcxH2iQMaq5Bcw3DJMhsc9v0oQxNOAH_cfVVElxJ= EUH8034vI-Su4ZDwis$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 31070288 33830259 34450152 35080070 35030044 34910009
34260022 33080065 30990130 30340181 30390256 30590282
31070288=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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