ACUS11 KWNS 190848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190847=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Areas affected...far southern Alabama and the far western Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 190847Z - 191115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop this morning across
southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing across the northern Gulf
as a modest increase in the low-level jet has provided sufficient
ascent within a moderately unstable airmass. The MOB VWP shows
around 175 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with strengthening deep-layer shear. As
a result, mini supercells which have developed within this
environment will pose some threat for low-level mesoscyclone
organization and an isolated tornado threat.=20

Expect the tornado threat to remain isolated and confined to a small
area near the coast. Therefore given the isolated threat and
geographically limited region, no watch is anticipated. However, if
a more organized threat develops and moves farther inland, a watch
may need to be considered.

..Bentley/Smith.. 10/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6i1rKiQEpBrijZ2LFGAjbfFTDBKvLUPRDLxbZm59nv6ovjyXIi_GaWK-_W3adylW-y2jHRtM7= HYLH_p1FWUXmVx3TqA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30288735 30188797 30198843 30218850 30438854 30638834
30708778 30758729 30698710 30308714 30288735=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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