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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2156

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 19 01:59:37 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 190159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190159=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-190400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2156
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0859 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

    Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 627...

    Valid 190159Z - 190400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 627 continues.

    SUMMARY...Organized strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across
    the northern two-thirds of ww627 over the next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Diffluent high-level flow is spreading across the Mid
    South/lower MS Valley ahead of approaching short-wave trough. Over
    the last few hours, large-scale ascent appears to be encouraging a
    broadening corridor of convection across western MS into northeast
    LA. LLJ is also increasing ahead of the short wave with 1km speeds
    in excess of 35kt as far south as central MS. VAD Profile from DGX
    supports this with 0-3km SRH around 250 m2/s2. The primary storm
    mode should remain QLCS, but a few isolated supercells are currently
    lifting northeast just ahead of the line into central portions of
    the watch. While buoyancy is somewhat limited over eastern portions
    of the state, some increase in buoyancy is expected immediately
    ahead of this convective complex. Greatest short-term risk appears
    to be across central portions of ww627.

    ..Darrow.. 10/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_-SSx8As1kfaPZQFR9jIh3BcmV3jnivBwauni_E7OUh0ecj0cE1T2KstgQQ0nscSlM5-MsLqj= i4v3trOgP8oAwWacxg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32409185 33169096 33949024 33698935 32468993 31909119
    32409185=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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