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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2153

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 18 21:42:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 182142
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182141=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-182345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2153
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0441 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

    Areas affected...Arklatex

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 624...625...

    Valid 182141Z - 182345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 624, 625 continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe will focus along a corridor from central
    Arkansas across northwest Louisiana into extreme east Texas over the
    next several hours.

    DISCUSSION...Strong, low-amplitude short-wave trough is advancing
    quickly across eastern OK/north central TX. Large-scale forcing
    ahead of this feature appears to be aiding a considerable amount of
    convection across the Arklatex with roughly half a dozen supercells
    embedded within this convection from central AR into northwest LA.
    Convection is quasi linear in nature across AR into northeast TX,
    and outflow is surging well ahead of the southwestern flank as it advances/develops eastward. The more discrete activity is evolving
    across the more buoyant air mass farther south along the Sabine
    River into western LA. This activity should spread/develop northeast
    into the early-evening hours as LLJ strengthens and veers into
    northern MS after sunset. With time, some recovery is expected
    across northeast LA into this portion of the Mid South as the LLJ
    encourages a more moist boundary layer to lift into northern MS.
    Later this evening a new tornado watch may be warranted downstream.

    ..Darrow.. 10/18/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Udcd1CJLwddkXNQp_gTEL7CtKuJ530Qmvhoc6C502TIuXfprAkvIKX1aXnlCpFEBpNYnXlSE= qH1eVSVF_tQBbt8DLU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31639490 33229325 34249247 34869207 34739162 33419189
    31229323 31639490=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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