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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2149

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 16 23:16:42 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 162316
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162316=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2149
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0616 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162316Z - 170115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail is expected with convection across
    portions of the central High Plains early this evening. Severe
    thunderstorm watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Southern influence of a northern High Plains short-wave
    trough appears to be aiding convection across extreme northeast CO
    into southwest NE. This activity is developing along a frontal zone
    where surface-based parcels have reached convective temperatures due
    to steep low-level lapse rates, especially across northeast CO.
    While convection along the front is becoming somewhat linear in
    nature, one notable supercell is lifting northeast across Kit Carson
    County CO and will soon spread into Cheyenne County KS. This storm
    has likely produced severe hail at times, along with gusty winds.
    Wind profiles remain favorable for supercell structures, but frontal
    convection may maintain more linear characteristics. Storm motions
    also favor this activity being slightly undercut by the surface
    front as the evening progresses. Until then, the greatest risk for
    severe hail/wind is with any pre frontal supercells, but these
    should remain isolated. At this time a severe thunderstorm watch is
    not currently anticipated.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 10/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4GBzppD0T8xL3LA0Z6LqbiRJgFDK7P0IqtOwUTLJupwU-tm079H8UbhZAkglQ0S1bpjUisdac= 1Z2r9OGMFTJkvLkerw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39300278 41670081 41390011 40130078 38820188 39300278=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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