AWUS01 KWNH 051946
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Areas affected...southern/coastal Alabama, parts of the western
Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051945Z - 052345Z

Summary...A band of heavy rainfall will move slowly across the
discussion area, with rainfall totals of 3-5 inches occurring in
some areas through 2330Z/630p CDT. Isolated instances of flash
flooding are possible with this activity.

Discussion...Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a band of
thunderstorms that has exhibited upscale growth and slow forward
propagation along an axis from near Foley, AL south-southeastward
to around 85 miles SSW of AAF/Apalachicola, FL. This band was
moving slowly eastward, while individual cells were streaming
northward toward coastal areas near Foley and Pensacola, FL. The
band of convection was also exhibiting very localized training
near coastal areas that was resulting in an uptick in hourly
rainfall rates (into the 3 inch/hr range). These rain rates are
still falling shy of local FFG thresholds, suggesting that any
runoff issues may be isolated in the short term.

The band of ongoing convection should persist for at least another
2-4 hours given favorable low-level easterlies for
inflow/low-level shear, slight low-level warming (supporting
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE in the pre-convective environment), and an
abundantly moist airmass (2-2.2 inch PW values supporting
efficient rainfall processes). Isolated flash flood potential
should slowly spread eastward along the western Florida Panhandle,
with areas near Pensacola, Eglin AFB, and potentially Panama City
experiencing heavier rainfall through at least 2330Z/630p CDT. 3
inch/hr rain rates will remain possible with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_L0h8AHIVf3mgL5bBPLCuReypkeugKzGNxZaZPk3XgpRN4TGgQ5uYihplk-TQbiY7fZS= Fs_hIJijViKdBjXFS1-p4bk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31018783 30978673 30658550 29928509 29608528=20
30218793 30748818=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060741
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...South-Central LA into Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060740Z - 061340Z

SUMMARY...Localized backbuilding and training of warm-topped
convective bands early this morning across south-central LA up
into southwest MS may produce some isolated flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with radar shows multiple warm-topped bands of very heavy showers
and a few thunderstorms impacting portions south-central LA up
into far southwest MS. The convection is associated with
increasingly convergent flow around the eastern flank of a low to
mid-level vort center lifting gradually northward into the Lower
MS Valley.

Locally enhanced moisture convergence is especially noted across
southwest MS right now, with a nose of MUCAPE values reaching 500
to 1000 J/kg stretching northward from the central Gulf Coast up
into southwest MS in close proximity to a surface trough. A
southerly low-level jet reaching 30 to 40 kts is noted around the
eastern flank of the vort energy, and with weaker deep layer mean
flow across the region, the Corfidi vectors are strongly
supportive of an environment for backbuilding convection. This is
being evidenced right now with the latest radar trends and
especially with the convective cells/banding occurring over parts
of south-central LA.

PWs are quite high and locally upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches, and
with this deep tropical environment along with elevated WBZ
heights, some of the rainfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour.
Given the alignment of the convection with the deeper layer
southerly flow regime, there will be cell-training concerns at
least locally. Going through early this morning, there may be some
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals that materialize. This may
result in at least some isolated concerns for flash flooding and
especially if any of the more urbanized areas are impacted.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4oRu_NwHnPpnEWMcW438fAYjV3yFpFQclLdJ0OOdPdGjo-3Wv2jUZ3ffNnOYin5X9pOl= Su7ksAZXIeS0p-ZIYbANpG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32789084 32249005 30908996 29759052 29529126=20
29819175 30439172 31349151 32309151=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061210
FFGMPD
FLZ000-061809-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of Palm Beach & Broward Counties in FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061209Z - 061809Z

Summary...Occasional convective bands could continue to set up in
and near the Gold Coast of FL, possibly into early this afternoon.
Hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could lead to
isolated occurences of flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level disturbance across North FL combined
with precipitable water values ~2.25", 2000+ J/kg of ML CAPE, and
effective bulk shear of 20kt or so has led to the development and
fading of a couple convective bands across east-central Palm Beach
and northeast Broward Counties, downwind of the northwest Bahamas
and within an area of low-level convergence near a stationary
front. A more active convective band lies offshore Broward County
at the time of this discussion's writing. Hourly rain estimates
have approached 2" with the Palm Beach county band and above 1"
near Deerfield Beach.

The expectation is for convective bands to occasionally shift
south/reorganize in different locations with time, primarily
across Broward County, though additional activity in southeast
Palm Beach County can't be ruled out. The mesoscale guidance (via
the HREF and REFS probabilities) indicate the threat of heavy
rainfall in and near the Gold Coast perhaps as late as 18z with
some possible southward shift/reorganization which seems to follow
a slight southward nudge of the highest moisture in the region.=20
Until the bands dissipate or become less organized at some point
this afternoon, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4SZmsLD6fVmAlGZcsn3_ADjbNKkRCq6LhLl8BVguG67mpQK2vSw4G6JD6Y3vf_czwosm= p2INOnsxNkSdgXHi41affrY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 26758005 26498002 25958013 26038037 26588037=20
26738031=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061338
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061637-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast LA and southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061337Z - 061637Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms are possible over the next few
hours roughly between Baton Rouge LA and Prentiss MS. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals are possible where
cell training occurs, which would be most problematic in recently
saturated and urban areas.

Discussion...A training band of convection remains active across
south-central MS at the present time, while another area of slowly
developing scattered convection near Baton Rouge aligning.=20
Precipitable water values are around 2.25" per GPS data. ML CAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg persists to the southeast of a low- to mid-level
disturbance near southeast AR. Effective bulk shear across the
region is 20 kts or so, which has fostered convective organization
at times.

The concern is that the scattered aligned convection in LA
continues to slowly build, consolidate, and train in the next few
hours, potentially advecting downstream into areas that receieved
5-10" of rain this morning per radar estimates. The remaining
convective band is also a source of concern for another 2-3 hours.
Where training occurs, hourly amounts to 2.5" with additional
local amounts to 4" would be possible, which would be most
problematic in urban areas and were soils have recently saturated.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-HlW0Z7_20mpjxmZ3pPVoB8ronlYjmCSXAac0erYyKyg3YLk3QST8fpprRAMQE2LJqJi= m34tWFprAZ8Qzr9Tr17YJjA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31938979 31228976 30489041 30149122 30169166=20
30619135 31359058=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061622
FFGMPD
FLZ000-062100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast of Florida into Central Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061625Z - 062100Z

SUMMARY...Strong, directed onshore flow with strengthening
upstream low level flow, to support back-building training across
the Space Coast with highly efficient 2-3"/hr rates pose localized
urban flooding

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and KMLB RADAR shows strong
back-sheared thunderstorms crossing Cape Canaveral into N Brevard
county with slow weakening/disruption into the central Peninsula
as some dry air mixing is resulting in low level convergence
outrunning the deeper layer steering. This reduces the vertical
depth of moisture flux convergence and rainfall generation.=20
However, nearer the coast; upstream increased deeper layer
moisture (including increasing 700mb RH) is maintaining broader
convective development within an East to West band north of Grand
Bahama into the Cape. MLCAPE of 2000 J/kg are solid given the
narrow skinny/moist profile with depth. Combining to the vertical
ascent is entrance to the 30-40kt 3H jet streak along 30N east of
79W, is providing solid divergence aloft to help maintain the
depth of rainfall production.

Deep layer moisture of 2.25" and flux convergence given upstream
winds of 25-30kts decelerating into the coast will allow for
continued 2-3"/hr rates with a favorable back-building
regenerative environment. Eventually, the forecast is for the
outflow/jet entrance is to slide further east and reduce the
divergence aloft; however, there is some trends in satellite
loop/imagery that suggest the convection may be adding
to/strengthening the jet in a narrow axis. If this were to occur,
longer duration will increase overall localized totals of 3-5".
Small southward wavering of the onshore axis is expected to help
spread the heavy rainfall footprint. Given proximity to urban
locations and sheer rate, localized rapid inundation/flash
flooding is considered possible.

A bit more uncertain, is how far downstream into the Central
Peninsula this will extend. Each bout/updraft cycle will further
moisten the low level environment and allow further downstream
extension of the narrow heavy rainfall (E-W) corridor. Hi-Res
CAMs continue to suggest a westward translating convergence wave
lengthwise through the Peninsula, but current trends of upstream
development suggests coastal training remains more likely for the
greatest overall totals.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_G_ivsMkCGAo5PcurhnL7tIjaOrAE5fAtUtL0T9LF25M4UDunV-Rv3NUQEeihD7bCFhL= QWOiAWx9KYghJ7ltvqgu7UQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29148147 29078097 28798063 28398036 27788042=20
27848101 28378168 28728191 29038184=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061828
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1163
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Mississippi...Coastal
Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061830Z - 070000Z

SUMMARY...Reinvigoration of convective bands will have similar
potential for back-building and short-term training resulting in
2-4" totals given 2-2.5"/hr rates. Localized flash flooding
remains possible through the evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E GeoColor Visible imagery shows well defined
surface to mid-level circulation along the LA/AR border with broad
warm advective regime along the eastern hemisphere across much of
MS into SE LA. Surface analysis shows some weak reflection in
pressures further south than the wind circulation along the
border, but a defined frontal zone extend along the MS River into
the Atchafalaya Swamps of south-central LA...east of it higher
theta-E air with increasing temperature spreads into the 80s over
Tds in the mid to upper 70s. Early morning south to north
convective line exists along the eastern side of the warm sector
before low to mid-level clouds have been keeping temps in near the
Tds north of the warm front from GLH to north of JAN to E of HBG
and south to Mobile Bay. Surface to boundary layer moisture
pooling along the warm front intersects with SSW LLJ across SE LA
into central MS where Total PWat values are well above average in
the 2.25"+ range. The confluence of the conveyor belts has
resulted in strong moisture flux convergence generally coincident
or just north of the expanding instability wedge. MLCAPEs are
increasing from 1000 to 2000 J/kg from the warm front southward to
the Gulf; providing the strength for vertical development.

Recent GOES-E Vis/IR loops along with regional RADAR mosaic
denoted leading edge of old outflow and intersection of the warm
front has seen increased convective vigor and vertical depth in
the last hour or so. While winds are generally 20-25kts through
depth, it is the strong confluence with height that present the
stronger convergence to tap the unstable air. Moisture flux of
the high moisture will result in increasing rain-rates of
2-2.5"/hr. Steering flow will allow for south to north training,
though momentum and some weak cold pool generation should allow
for some eastward propagation to limit overall duration. Spots of
2-4" are probable and may result in localized flash flooding
concerns.

Additionally, GOES-E WV suite denotes a weak inflection along the
cold front near the Gulf coast lifting northeastward within the
larger shortwave lifting north through the MS Valley, this is
indicative of some increased low-level jet streak to support
upstream back-building. In addition, while not in the core of the
warm conveyor belt, convergence along the cold front toward the
triple-point could see even slower, but shallower thunderstorms
capable of intense rainfall as well. The potential of upstream
development in proximity to the front could expose areas of
lowered FFG from this morning's thunderstorm activity and
reaggravate flooding concerns there as well. As such, have
expanded the MPD area of concern to the cold front to encompass
this lower confidence, wider scattered activity and flash flood
potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5kqEn9ABgoaBy83TKamWfey1bpNGDWezyGFebiIOwJen41FITHNy3dd_b7IFD7cu0YYL= wKg-hUtcEvZN9uQo-AnY7Vw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34698960 34158873 32378849 31398795 30508763=20
30178795 30268891 30088985 30109055 30369132=20
31569090 32719080 33569100 34289043=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070130
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070129Z - 070700Z

SUMMARY...Concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of northeast AR and western TN over the next several
hours. Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, and
especially around the more urbanized areas such as Memphis and
Dyersburg.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined surface low and associated mid-level
vort center continues to lift gradually north-northeastward up
across eastern AR this evening and will be advancing through
adjacent portions of the Mid-South and toward the Lower OH Valley
by later tonight.

The energy is fostering a concentrated area of very heavy rainfall
currently over portions of far northeast AR and along the MS River
just to the west of Memphis, TN. Enhanced southerly warm air
advection and moisture transport is surging northward around the
eastern flank of the surface low and vort center with the aid of a
southerly low-level jet reaching as high as 30 to 40 kts.

This is allowing for a substantial amount of tropical moisture and
at least modest instability to be focused in close proximity to
the low center and also downstream of it nosing across far
northwest MS and into northeast AR through western TN. The latest
RAP analysis shows as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
these areas with PWs of 2 to 2.25 inches.

Additionally, some very strong moisture convergence is noted
around the immediate northeast flank of the surface low and vort
center itself, and radar is showing a corridor of enhanced
convection producing extremely high rainfall rates in association
with this. Overall, the larger convective footprint shows
relatively warm convective cloud tops, but over the last hour
there has been a substantial cooling of tops just west of Memphis
where some rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour are occurring.

Over the next several hours, this concentrated areas of very heavy
rainfall should still impact portions of northeast AR, but will be
advancing increasingly into western TN.

Expect there to be notable concerns for urban flash flooding in
the near-term around the Memphis metropolitan area along with the
adjacent suburbs as this concentrated axis of heavy convective
rainfall near to the low center advances off to the
north-northeast. Additional downstream areas such as Dyersburg may
impacted as well. Expect in general there to be scattered areas of
flash flooding becoming likely even outside of the urban areas
given rainfall totals that may reach 3 to 5+ inches in a localized
fashion going into the overnight hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8iD9eiigab60asRk0DqBfwLb5TOdbLAP1AJZWBdRnj2z9bVJOvV6JQGVdAL_2A0USz4y= mnNCF-5FCd9UJ4fPrNmXczQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36548906 36168811 35378841 34758980 34599092=20
34679124 35139143 35869089 36229023=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070921
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-071520-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1165
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid South and Lower Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070920Z - 071520Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall still impacting portions of the Mid-South
early this morning will become increasingly focused across the
Lower OH Valley over the next several hours. Some isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible where any
cell-training of showers and thunderstorms occur.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined surface low and associated mid-level
vort center is beginning to edge into the Lower OH Valley along
with a pronounced surge of tropical moisture. A southerly
low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts continues to focus rather strong
warm air advection and moisture transport around the eastern flank
of the low center, and this combined with modest instability and
some upper-level jet divergence should support broken areas of
heavy rainfall overspreading the Lower OH Valley this morning.

MLCAPE values are only on the order of 500 to 750 J/kg, but the
moisture convergence parameters are rather strong around the
northeast flank of the vort energy and especially near the low
center itself. This is favoring some stronger convective elements
with highly efficient rainfall owing to warm rain/relatively
shallow-topped convection. Some embedded colder convective tops
are occurring in sporadic bursts, and these smaller scale clusters
of convection have been capable of producing rainfall rates on the
order of 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour.

As this energy begins lifting northeastward across the Lower OH
Valley this morning, there is expected to be some gradual
interaction with an upstream cold front approaching the OH Valley
from the northwest. This will support a more frontogenetical
component to the heavy rainfall threat and should support a more
elongated southwest to northeast axis of heavy rain with embedded
convection.

The 00Z HREF/REFS suites of guidance support some localized swaths
of 2 to 4+ inches of rain going through late this morning, with a
spotty 5+ inch total not out of the question where any
cell-training of convection occurs. The heavier and more
concentrated areas of rainfall should be close to the OH River
involving areas of far southeast IL, western and northwest KY and
into far southern IN.

Antecedent conditions across the region are generally on the dry
side, but the rainfall potential this morning is expected to be
enough to drive a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding. This will especially be the case in vicinity of the more
urbanized areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6s984LwdmtyLfd2gxOGVFuAgG_GO4HI8oTRXsdnDZ6HV7Ny2Ua9ua4PoKj_JB5_fo7N6= O_aOSlDrcjOZRCS4qTLPxWM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39008471 38588377 37748383 37098453 36388586=20
36088694 36008780 35988834 36028894 36278967=20
36758973 37398939 38028844 38508736 38958580=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071501
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1166
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Far Southern IND...Northern & Central
KY...Southern OH...Far Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071500Z - 072000Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rainfall with embedded weak
convective elemented within a long training profile into confluent
low to mid-level flow downstream of cyclone pose localized 2-3"
totals over 3-6hrs suggesting scattered incidents of flash
flooding remains through afternoon.

DISCUSSION...14z surface analysis depicts an elongating SW to NE
surface low across Southwest KY as the mid-level shortwave
continues to advance into the lower Ohio Valley into increasingly
confluent flow aloft. A new triple point-like feature near OWB
appears to be helping to back the low to mid-level higher moisture
flux flow enough to maintain some solid convergence to tap the
remaining conditionally unstable air of 250-500 J/kg along and
downstream in proximity to the stationary front which appears to
have taken residence in the Ohio Valley, proper. Solid deep layer
moisture through the confluence stream remains well above normal
at 1.75-2.1" of total PWats though CIRA LPW denotes the
elongation/shearing of the moisutre axis as the surface to 850
remains upstream near the low and slow advancing cold front, but
700-500mb slug has shifted toward Northern Kentucky and southern
Ohio.

Still the oblique ascent across the effective boundary is further
elongating the isentropic ascent that has moderate shield precip
and weak convective entrainment, increasing further to the west.=20
The flux is enhancing showers to .25-.75"/hr and given the
orientation into the confluence zone further strengthens training
profile and axis of 2" may result prior to even the arrival of
stronger flux/deeper convective cores capable of 1.25-1.5"/hr
though average more close to 1" for an additional 1-2 hours. This
should result in 2-3.5" totals with a low possibility of a
localized 4" total across the area of concern through the
afternoon.=20

The flashy, rapid rise concerns are low and likely very isolated=20
but prolonged moderate rainfall, FFG values in the 3-6hr range are
still about 2-3" along the frontal zone/training axis. This still
suggests exceedance remains possible with scattered incidents of
flooding especially in very poor drainage areas, such as urban
settings.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5zZYIDwQf5bA7j5eVlGmC3eBSDbPZDSRiwc1NMkbgb7XXALrWMDtbLRRSMTz9O2--0gn= N1-caWr24-YYI4nclUtk__4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39578261 39348191 38818177 38358197 37888263=20
37568380 37178594 36918765 37568756 38218703=20
38748564 39258429 39468337=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071746
FFGMPD
NMZ000-072345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Central to Eastern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071745Z - 072345Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1.5"+/hr rates
and totals over 2", especially near Sacramento Mountains posing
localized incident(s) of possible flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows the surface to boundary
layer increased moisture indicated by banked up stratus east of
the Sacramento mountains and through the saddle and into the far
southern Sangre de Cristo Range. CIRA LPW and RAP analysis
confirmed by surface Tds in the mid to upper 50s of this enhanced
low level moisture with nose angling out of the Pecos River
Valley. Solid upslope is deep enough to have bled through to the
westward adjacent Rio Grande Valley with an effective dry line
noted as Tds drop into the 20s/30s through the Black Mtn Range.=20

Water vapor suite denotes an elongated shortwave across central AZ
with a weak mid-level baroclinic leaf downstream into west-central
NM angling out from the higher cirro-stratus in the sub-tropical
jet that is centered across southern NM. The strong directional
shear across the area has resulted in effective bulk shear into
the 30-35kt range in central NM, suggesting organized, broader
updrafts once destabilization occurs. Currently, the cloudy
nature east of the terrain is limiting insolation but temps
upstream of the terrain in the Rio Grande Valley are reaching
mid-70s and where the moisture stream overlaps, SBACAPEs are
starting to increase over 1000 J/kg. While upslope flow has not
begun in earnest, the limited capping and weak divergence aloft at
the entrance of the subtropical jet streak has resulted in some
mid-level activity increasing as Lightning-cast Probability are
reaching 60-75% over the next hour with some of the TCu features.=20
Still believe this is a bit too early for the strongest updrafts,
but these seeds could sprout earlier than the 20z expected
destabilization noted in most of the recent Hi-Res CAMs.=20

Low level winds should further back and strengthen to 15-20kts and
further enhance deep layer convergence in the Sacramento
Mountains. Initially anchored updrafts, may result in localized
1" totals, before expanding and slowly decoupling from the
terrain. The bulk shear suggests some rotation which will
further increase moisture flux convergence to support 1.5"/hr
rates. RRFS is most aggressive, but does not seem unreasonable,
especially representation of convective mode. These cells are in
general proximity to burn scars near Ruidoso and any overlap is
more likely to result in FF, but that precision is not capable at
this time scale but locals should remain weather-aware.=20

As the afternoon progresses to evening, as upstream shortwave
slowly drifting northeast into NW NM toward the late evening,
upslope flow is expected to continue and strengthen
through/westward past the terrain and expand convective initiation
further north and west with time. Spots of 1-2" in hard pan
ground conditions may result in additional localized incidents of
flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-8qqmcRz_YfiCGHaDKUaSlSAfSvoqEJyqTtHFcf3bf208VUCzu6xdMIee9bniVr9P45V= lmtTCRM8hEW9kSwQ3KmbAwc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35850583 35650481 34390379 33330365 32630441=20
32330510 32350589 32900652 34020639 34720647=20
35260626=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071955
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Northeast KY...Southern OH...Western WV...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072000Z - 080030Z

SUMMARY...A few more hours of training moderate showers with
ending burst of intense rain near surface low, pose longer term
flooding concerns with isolated rapid rise/flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows core of elongating southern
stream shortwave continues to advance much faster than the
low-level/surface features into increasingly confluent flow in the
Upper Ohio River Valley. This vertical tilting further displaces
deep layer moisture structure as total PWat values continue to
reduce from 2" toward 1.75". Additionally, much of the area has
become stable with limited <250 J/kg of CAPE. However, the warm
conveyor and moisture flux convergence remains solid and more
importantly elongated along the ill-defined boundary across NE KY
into the Ohio River. Oblique ascent from 25-35kts of 850mb
southwesterly flow to the boundary more WSW to ENE and larger
scale downstream divergence continues to broaden the moderate
precipitation shield.=20

Rates of .25-.5"/hr continue within the broad moderate shield
expanding as far east as the middle slopes of the Allegheny
Plateau. However, the western edge of the warm conveyor belt has
an associated surface low intersecting the boundary near KLEX,
providing stronger convergence overlapped with modest mid-level
drying has allowed for some conditional instability to reach
500-750 J/kg. As such, GOES-E 10.3um shows some solid convective
cores still cooling below -60C, suggesting an ending punch to the
training moderate showers with a cell or two capable of
1.25-1.5"/hr. So with 1-1.5" capped off with an additional 1-1.5"
in about an hour, may result in a streak of additional 2-3" across Northeast/Eastern KY into W WV before fully weakening in favor of
stronger forcing/backing flow to the northern stream frontal zone
dropping in across central IND/OH.

While the area has been dry, natural lower FFG values of
1-1.5"/1hr are less likely to be exceeded but 3-6hr values of
1.5-3" have a slightly higher potential. So the rapid rise
flooding may be a bit more tempered, but FLASH unit stream flow
values across much of central KY have been between 400-650 cfs/smi
and even a slightly reduced value across the rugged terrain across
NE KY into far S OH/W WV, are likely to remain above 300 cfs and
suggest some flooding conditions are possible through the
remainder of the evening hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6PMFqgw0bUH_lhpOmA9qsmp426tNy_jwGDoF3r_-1Fns65Eoqa4JuJbqAO4RkZgJKSg0= dN5JEwA0k6F5cwuh0v0dsVo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39318159 38988102 38468101 38018128 37698206=20
37628247 37608353 37798422 38308467 38798423=20
39078336=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072346
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Eastern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072344Z - 080400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1.5"+/hr rates
and isolated rainfall totals in excess of 2", especially near
Sacramento Mountains, pose a localized threat of flash flooding
through this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery showed a surface boundary
across portions of western Texas into eastern New Mexico while
RAP-based moisture flux convergence maxima were mainly along or
near the boundary with late afternoon/early evening surface Tds in
the mid to upper 50s. Upslope is deep enough to have bled through
to the westward adjacent Rio Grande Valley with an effective dry
line noted as Tds drop into the 20s/30s through the Black Mtn
Range.=20

The cloudy nature east of the terrain has limited insolation but a
combination of late afternoon temperatures in the 80s and 90s
south of the front and dewpoints in the 50s has resulted in some
pockets of surface based CAPE values in the 750 to 1000 J per kg
range by 07/23Z. While upslope flow has not begun in earnest, the
limited capping and weak divergence aloft at the entrance of a
subtropical jet streak could result in additional showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing rainfall rates in excess of an
inch per hour due to destabilization noted in most of the recent
Hi-Res CAMs and recent mesoanalysis. The environmental bulk shear
suggests some rotation which will further increase moisture flux
convergence to support 1.5"/hr rates. Any cells in the general
proximity to burn scars near Ruidoso and any overlap is more
likely to result in FF, but that precision is not capable at this
time scale but locals should remain weather-aware.=20

As the evening progresses, upslope flow is expected to continue
and strengthen through/westward past the terrain and expand
convective initiation farther north and west with time. Spots of
1-2" in hard pan ground conditions may result in additional
localized incidents of flash flooding.

Bann

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8SjtSo5E--B0tQtfF9Ws5zNfujQop4RC5bEE_xFeQDbqK7XfwUDJuPHs642xdVdVVqIh= vqu1x4_TeWGQeTWwh-nUO48$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35200531 34270390 33540329 32280341 31790406=20
31440489 31360595 31750647 31900762 33070770=20
34450722 35160634=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081950
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-090130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Areas affected...West-Central to Central NM... Adjacent Northeast
AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081950Z - 090130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving thunderstorms may result in spots
of 1-2" totals in less than 2 hours, posing isolated localized
flash flash flooding conditions. Adjacent

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible and KABQ RADAR shows a sizable cluster
of convective development across portions of west-central NM
terrain (west of the Rio Grande Valley). An ill-defined frontal
zone seems to be a confluent/pooling agent for southerly to
southeasterly upslope flow and moisture advection out of the Rio
Grande Valley. Tds in the mid 50s in the upslope regime while
upper-level flow provides favorable divergence aloft at the apex
of the anticyclonically curved sub-tropical jet originating out of
the Sea of Cortez and across S NM. The confluent flow at the
curvature of the front along with the upslope component appears to
be allowing for the greater overall coverage/clustering.=20

Prior to development, solid insolation and the lower moisture
profile and modest drying aloft has supported 1000+ J/kg of SBCAPE
and with the southerly/southeasterly confluent flow along the
gradient of overall deeper moisture (favorably loaded in the lower
profile per CIRA LPW) suggests modest rainfall efficiency for
these cells as they mature. With the upper-level jet and weak
directional shear, effective bulk shear of 25-30kts suggests some
weak organization and perhaps some weak cell rotation to further
enhance moisture flux into the updraft column. Mean winds of
20kts, slightly deflected due to any weak rotation along with
favorable upslope initially to help lock the up/downdraft to the
terrain for a few hours suggests some increased duration of modest
rates. As such, rates of .75-1"/hr are possible resulting in
localized 1-2" totals in 1-2 hour time frames suggest localized
flash flooding could occur in an isolated to widely scattered
nature, with obviously higher potential in/around burn scars in
the vicinity through the afternoon into evening hours in the area
of concern.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8fLzURgYh2hPEArJHx1LUn7qW2LDZUh_QthgNfmuM3Rvtw1xGUb70eODADTng5l5NHaI= 8nmpQ9XP3YLuBgb_HWuM2pY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36340704 36130620 36050606 35300549 34430565=20
33820564 33420563 33460608 33610627 34250646=20
34490671 34450703 33610734 33510812 33530857=20
33960902 34480944 35170954 35780915 36300790=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091731
FFGMPD
FLZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1171
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...Southeast to Southern Peninsular Florida...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091730Z - 092300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms within a deeply rich moisture
environment along inverted trof/tropical wave, will focus for some
2-3"/hr rates and localized totals of possible 5" may result in
rapid inundation flooding conditions through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible loop and 17z surface analysis depicts
a confluent SW to NE axis extending across the Everglades toward
the southern Space Coast with increasing convective activity
concentrating along it. Low level tropical moisture exists
through solid depth with mid 70s in surface and sfc-850mb LPW
values near 1". This continues through 700mb, but along that
confluence line/inverted trof, mid-level dry air from the
northeast in the 700-500mb layer demarcates the boundary even
further, south of which, the TPW values are over 2.25" nearing
2.4" locally. Solid early morning sun and limited capping on the
skinny profiles has brought temperatures well in the mid to upper
80s and support MLCAPEs of 2000-2500 J/kg even with fairly moist
adiabatic profiles.=20

The streamline flow noted in satellite, is generally 10-20kts per
VWP providing strong moisture flux convergence through depth along
the axis for scattered to numerous updrafts. Flow aloft is
reverse to the low level flow providing some vertical shear but
not ideal for prolonged organized structures but the tilt will
allow for some upper-level divergence/outflow to maintain stronger
updrafts. As such, the strength of flux convergence and depth of
moisture in deep warm cloud (13-15Kft) will support efficient
rainfall production with capability of 2-3"/hr rates. Cell
motions suggest east to west transient 15kt cell motions, but
linear confluence features would support some repeating/training
to allow for some localized 5"+ totals, with the 16z HRRR even
suggesting localized totals over 7", so it is not completely out
of the realm of possibility if training is prolonged/ideal but
given the nature of the flow is still less likely than more.=20=20 Irrespective, the intensity of the rates into the 3"/hr range
would still result in localized rapid inundation flooding
especially in the east coast urban corridor, but also could affect
portions of Alligator Alley and other cross peninsular roadways.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_7-I_yw0hYy9DAMXPNVB--mZEs64xggjnymLIGIYY67zch5p4NfEQCKBrsaoUZk6JguX= pCX2gehTg30_eJZBXlUMxT4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28178090 28128055 27788035 27338016 26907999=20
26047999 26048056 25998104 26028147 26378168=20
26928149 27288137 27668127 27898117=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092036
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...Northern Arizona...Southern Utah...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092035Z - 100200Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of small core thunderstorms embedded
with moderate shower activity. Localized .5"-.75"/hr rates over
very flashy basins and multiple south to north rain bands may
allow for some cross tracks and totals of 1-1.5" resulting in
localized flash flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...Environment is starting to show initial signs of
waves/bands of convective activity expected through the afternoon.
CIRA LPW and RAP analysis also denote leading edge of enhanced
subtropical moisture has grown deep enough to over-top the
Mogollon Rim and is lifting northward through the San Francisco
Plateau, Tds in the upper 40s to mid-50s have been noted and
pockets of total PWats over 1" have started to be
observed/analyzed. Clear skies has provided ample insolation to
support increased SBCAPEs 750-1000+ J/kg with rapidly reducing
CINH capping across the Plateau.

GOES-W WV shows bulge of ideally anticyclonically curved
outflow/sub-tropical jet from Priscilla, as well as broadening
diffluence to its northwest under influence of the approaching
northern flow/polar jet streak. Current divergence is small but
effective for the initial band of showers along the AZ/UT border
with recent uptick in embedded convective showers. The enhanced
moisture flux and weak convergence associated with the broad scale
ascent appears to support some rates of .5"/hr so far.

As the evening progresses, the divergence pattern is expected to
increase with approach of embedded waves through the sub-tropical
stream. This will increase overall coverage and the smaller cored
convection is expected to broaden with upstream redevelopment
along the Mongollon Rim and volcanic peaks within the broader
Plateau. General north to north-northeast propagation will allow
for the potential for multiple bands resulting in random
intersection with prior rainfall footprints. Localized 1-1.5" are
possible, though most of the area of concern has naturally very
low FFG at .5-1"/hr (especially in south-central and SE Utah) and
less than 1"/3hrs. While overall coverage/totals are not
expected to be sizable, a random scatter shot of widely scattered
incidents of flash flooding are clearly possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Cg1SRRfM8bjwrGfmNTYyzPb8aJMeT4Dy58m8lKQlWopQJzdXfGxiJb7Yzd7IeTE32jo= 78vsqHqpbBetEj8iQU53vvI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39491037 38740955 37710952 36910977 35921049=20
35061158 34641310 35111391 36261394 37071312=20
37621245 38261202 39211140=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092101
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-100200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1173
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern Nevada...Southeast California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092100Z - 100200Z

SUMMARY...Training showers/thunderstorms capable of .5-.75"/hr and
localized streaks of 1-2" may result in localized flash flooding
over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW, VWP obs and RAP analysis, shows surge of
subtropical moisture through the Lower Colorado Valley on 15-20kst
of south to southeasterly confluent flow. Total PWat values have
increased to over 1.25". Strong convergence along the tight
moisture gradient has providing a sufficient differential boundary
for isentropic ascent. Deep layer profiles are not particularly
unstable (100-250 J/kg of CAPE) given the mid-level warming, but
the strength of deep layer moisture convergence generally
coincident with a combined diffluent portion of the polar and
subtropical jet noted in GOES-W WV suite was sufficient to allow
for elevated convective cores to develop, maintain and even expand
upstream toward the San Bernadino Range. Total Pwats of 1.25"
and moistening of the sub-cloud is allowing for some increased
rainfall rates of .5-.75"/hr.=20

Upstream shortwave energy rounding th western edge of the
sub-tropical ridge shows some additional cumuliform mid-level
clouds indicative of upstream energy and potential for further
upstream redevelopment/back-building environment. As such, with
deep layer steering generally oriented parallel to the ascent
boundary there is increasing potential for repeating cores and a
streak or two of 1-2" totals. Limited soil conditions and low FFG
values of .75-1.25"/3hrs suggests localized flash flooding is
possible within this band for the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-TjeaugyAH17AL9diwgM5BcLIY8OnJF-Axeu_Gq9oefrHLEt_4bexssdL27yk5C-UbTB= LLkVtwYYZibVHg6AJcdJ3sI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37971501 37571416 36171431 34711595 34491710=20
35291750 37001667=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100105
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100704-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...eastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100104Z - 100704Z

Summary...A few hours of heavy rainfall are expected along the
east coast of Florida tonight. Local rainfall totals of 2-5
inches can be expected where convection is most persistent. Flash
flooding is possible in both urban areas and where coastal
flooding can hinder runoff processes through at least 07Z/3a EDT.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection is persistent within a
strongly confluent low-level regime along the east coast of
Florida. These storms have initially persisted over open Gulf
Stream waters, but recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a slight
uptick in isolated convection over land areas especially just
north of Melbourne. The storms are in an environment
characterized by 2+ inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE,
supporting efficient rainfall processes. Additionally, low-level
easterlies veering to westerly aloft was promoting slow storm
motions that - when combined with favorable thermodynamic
parameters - will ultimately support a few areas of 2 inch/hr rain
rates at times.

Both observations and models suggest that the ongoing pattern
supporting rainfall should evolve very slowly over the next 6
hours at least. Spots of heavy rainfall (2 inch/hr rain rates)
should remain common on an isolated to scattered basis -
especially along coastal areas where updrafts will have access to
slightly greater instability located just offshore. Areas of 2-5
inch rainfall totals are expected.

These rain rates will occur over urbanized areas along the I-95
corridor from near/north of Daytona southward to around Ft.
Pierce. Isolated, urbanized flash flooding is possible through
07Z/3a EDT. Additionally, with onshore flow promoting localized
coastal flooding and hindering runoff in some areas, flooding
could become exacerbated by heavier rainfall on a localized basis.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8XwLr0VmFqtMdKnadkE1jKfI_RSgw7DUVPW8r3c0R2Yn7aXQ7B_DWYDXrSHvpIgMitOs= 6x_EYw4DpCV2NdqsCZ-sJsY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29938160 29578066 27977976 27108007 28248124=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100143
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-100541-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
942 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of the southwestern U.S.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100141Z - 100541Z

Summary...Scattered convection continues to produce isolated backbuilding/training and a few spots of rain rates exceeding 0.5
inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis for the
next few hours (through 06Z/11p PDT).

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to drift northeastward
across a broad part of the Great Basin currently.=20
Stratiform/shallow convection has been noted in many areas,
although deeper convection with more focused training has resulted
in an extended period of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates near Pahrump, NV
and adjacent areas of southeastern California. Convection in that
area is likely experiencing influence both from increased
mid-level moisture associated with Priscilla and weak mid-level
shortwave troughs related to a larger mid/upper wave west of
California.=20

Sufficient surface-based instability exists for convection to
continue occasionally backbuilding/training for a few more hours
on an isolated basis. Areas of 0.5 inch/hr rain rates should
continue at times, with training resulting in local 1+ inch
rainfall totals. Training axes like the one near Pahrump may
develop on an isolated basis across northwestern Arizona,
southeastern Nevada, and far southern Utah. Farther south along
the Lower Colorado River Valley, weaker forcing should continue to
keep flash flood risk isolated along with somewhat weaker rain
rates.

The greatest risk of flash flooding over the next few hours should
remain focused across southern Nevada, southern Utah, and
northwestern Arizona through 06Z/11p.=20=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QiGbK05Ojo2s8N5uZuNkYv2PeIMAIJHAhIZtRJ5FIuF-clUTSL0K7Zm8uWjRyTJ3Wzd= TVrZS-UEq--pVNn3fDrcfJQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38751243 37611100 35681166 33291308 33181548=20
34651693 36601644 38201538=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100655
FFGMPD
AZZ000-100854-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100654Z - 100854Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues as convection
drifts north-northeastward across the discussion area. Rain rates
of around 0.5 inch/hr are possible at times through 11Z/3a PDT.

Discussion...Scattered shower/isolated thunderstorm activity has
been persistent for most of the evening, although steady
north-northeastward movement has tended to keep rain rates in
check (generally under 0.5 inch/hr). Recent radar/satellite
indicate a subtle uptick in convection generally from the Phoenix
area southward to the International Border region that may be tied
to a weak mid-level wave approaching the area. Subtle confluence
at both 700mb and 850mb may also be contributing to the modest
increase in convective activity. Lightning data has also shown an
uptick in vicinity of the storms. Deep layer flow in excess of 20
knots will continue to support northward movement of cells,
although if strengthening continues, areas of localized training
could bump rain rates into the 0.5 inch/hr range. PW values
exceeding 1.5 inch and marginal instability (around 500 J/kg
MUCAPE) are supportive of heavier rainfall with the more dominant
activity.

As typical for the region, low-lying areas and burn scars that
experience heavier rainfall could result in an instance or two of
flash flooding for the next few hours. The longer-term
persistence of this activity is in question, however, as
convergence/confluence may weaken some later tonight (after 10Z).
As such, a conditional threat for flash flooding could continue
around southern/central Arizona for the next few hours while cells
persist.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!47NERrKDkKLc8gVQ6RQtq3skyJR5OUsbbBxPiSBq5oiPm96XNk2Vr0UdUrUIgxn7rMfC= X8NNZNVcSX0F5pMH7umiIF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35201135 34631040 32081113 31821276 32391397=20
34051318=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101748
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-102230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...central/northern AZ into southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101745Z - 102230Z

Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding appear
likely to develop from portions of central and northern AZ into
southern UT through the afternoon. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches is likely but within axes of training, hourly rainfall over
1 inch will be possible.

Discussion...Between 1530-1730Z, regional radar imagery has shown
an increase in the coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms extending in a SW to NE axis from central to
northern AZ. These storms were located within a highly anomalous
moisture plume, extending downstream of T.S. Priscilla which was
located west of the Baja Peninsula. OSPO ALPW imagery showed the
mid to upper level reflection of Priscilla beginning to cross the
central Baja Peninsula and standardized PWAT anomalies across the
Desert Southwest were +4 to +5 above the mean with 12Z sounding
values at VEF (0.92 inches) and FGZ (1.27 inches) well above the
SPC climatological max for October 10.

Despite overcast skies, weak solar insolation was helping to boost
instability across the region with some pockets of 500+ J/kg
MLCAPE and a broader coverage of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE shown on the
17Z SPC mesoanalysis. Fairly unidirectional southwesterly winds in
the low to mid-levels will promote area of training where
confluent 700 mb winds are located from western to central to
northeastern AZ. RAP forecasts indicate some strengthening of the
700 mb flow through 00Z which may act to increase coverage of
cells through the afternoon. Subtle vorticity maxima embedded
within the southwesterly flow aloft across the lower CO Valley
will also likely contribute to development of convection over the
next few hours. A continued increase in instability is expected
through peak surface heating which will help to support locally
higher rates which, given the remnant tropical moisture, may
support sub-hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in ~30 minutes.
In addition to heavy rain overlapping with urban areas or burn
scars, areas of flash flooding will be most likely within slot
canyons, small streams and normally dry washes.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_fhNyipkb54HKzFWYzeGgKOFZkUl8yibXkLxsmv7AzdcSUPhiVTEU6vbKNW_lNUqbCMW= aZ2pa8pxQgloNG1hzf1UA0A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38810953 37960957 35671017 34351135 34111300=20
35111413 36811378 37651320 38451206 38781062=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101943
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...southern CA, southern NV into central UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101940Z - 110140Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop and expand in
coverage over portions of southern CA, southern NV into central UT
over the next 3-6 hours. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is
expected along with isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES West visible imagery from 1930Z showed mostly
clear skies over the desert regions of southern CA into southern
NV and central UT, northwest of an extensive cloud shield to the
southeast. This region was located along the northwestern edge of
an anomalous moisture plume with standardized anomalies of PW
between 3 and 5 above the mean via the 12Z GFS. SPC mesoanalysis
data from 19Z showed 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across a majority of the
MPD threat area, but areas of low level inhibition remained,
especially across southern CA into NV.

Based on continued heating of the surface and advection of
moisture seen in OSPO ALPW imagery within the surface to 700 mb
layer, streaming north of Priscilla in the eastern Pacific,
further erosion of convective inhibition is expected through the
remainder of the afternoon. Convective development appears likely
within the next 1-2 hours, first over areas of higher terrain and
then spreading into the lower elevations with time. Some
augmentation of divergence aloft, within the right-entrance region
of a developing upper level jet max over southern NV will be
possible, aiding in the general forcing for ascent.

Unidirectional flow, generally from the southwest, will promote
areas of repeating and short term training within subtle low level
confluent axes. Coverage of cells may only become widely scattered
but the moisture-rich environment will promote efficient rainfall
production with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain in an hour expected.
These high rain rates are likely to result in at least isolated
areas of flash flooding, with a particular focus across any
population centers and burn scars, while otherwise impacting any
low lying and normally dry stream beds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8n0YZyRg_lRWv0PSZqz8psF9S-5A5bx8N5kI8ye1FG0rnFnmrsk281Y6QRNxwz1PmToJ= 1se-mmr7K4vc6iZuzvl_2ew$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39891291 39781057 39280943 38760947 38571076=20
38211182 37571281 36281369 34951444 34281507=20
33701587 33911680 34441741 35521712 36691669=20
39011531=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102235
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-110330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...lower CO Valley into central/northeastern AZ and
northwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102230Z - 110330Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered areas of flash flooding
will be possible from the lower CO River Valley across central AZ
into northwestern NM through 04Z. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0
inches is likely within stronger cores and isolated hourly totals
in excess of 1 inch will be possible.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor and OSPO ALPW imagery at 22Z
showed mid to upper level moisture from Post-T.C. Priscilla
streaming northeastward across the northern Baja Peninsula/Gulf of
California. Regional radar imagery showed a few stronger
reflectivity cores moving northward from Mexico into southeastern
CA and southwestern AZ, co-located with the upper level moisture
plume advancing into the region. Farther north, a broken SW to NE
axis of showers/thunderstorms extended from southwestern AZ into
northeastern AZ, along a remnant differential heating boundary and
along the White and San Francisco Mountains. Despite the highly
anomalous moisture plume in place across the entire Southwest
region, instability has been rather fragmented due to extensive
cloud cover limiting the coverage of higher rainfall rates up
until this point.

However, given the pockets of relatively higher MLCAPE that exist,
according to 22Z SPC mesoanalysis data, some locally higher
rainfall rates can be expected over the next 3-5 hours. 22Z SPC
mesoanalysis showed 500-1000 J/kg over portions of eastern AZ into
northwestern NM and into southwestern AZ, albeit with varying
degrees of inhibition. As the mid and upper level energy and
moisture plume from Priscilla continues to advance downstream
across the Southwest, the potential for increased rainfall
efficiency will exist within low level axes of confluence. These
axes of confluence will occasionally align with the deeper layer
mean steering flow from the SW, supporting repeating and training
of heavy rain cores. Isolated to widely scattered hourly rainfall
of 0.5 to 1.5 inches will be possible, generating possible flash
flooding, especially if overlap occurs with an axis of 1 to 3+
inches which has fallen over the past 24 hours from near Phoenix, north-northeastward across I-40. In terms of coverage, if recent
WoFS cycles are any indication, 6-hr probabilities of exceeding 1
inch are less than 40 percent and quite isolated across AZ into
northwestern NM.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4M6w_YQ7TUizrI6ojZcY1oE6sc2O0vb4mcFnty_hSt-Uwhh2PFR9h_3IfCbc_h14VgeB= 3S7PWx8ftXhr6vXBYW69jWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36220988 36120807 35090798 34030943 32581118=20
32061270 32181445 32741528 34131506 35341290=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110153
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-110552-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
953 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, southern
Utah, and far southeastern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110152Z - 110552Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains likely across the discussion
area, with locally significant impacts noted near the Las Vegas
area.

Discussion...Scattered convection continues to migrate
northeastward along an axis from near Las Vegas metro
northeastward to near St. George, UT. The cells remain embedded
in an environment characterized by abundant moisture 1-1.75 inch
PW values and sufficient surface-based instability for robust
updrafts (1000 J/kg SBCAPE). Despite appreciable cell motions
(around 20-30 knots), these cells were producing areas of 0.5-0.75
inch/hr rain rates - enough to prompt local flash flood
occurrences near the Las Vegas metro area. Localized training is
also aiding in promoting higher rain rates on a localized basis.

The ongoing scenario for flash flooding should continue for at
least a few more hours. Low-level southerly advection beneath an
expansive rain shield across the CA/AZ border region (Lower
Colorado River) has stabilized the airmass in that area, and some
of this stable air may work into the discussion area from the
south. This stabilization, combined with nocturnal boundary layer
cooling, should result in a gradual weakening trend with most
convection through 06Z/11p PDT. Despite the anticipated weakening
trend, the overall synoptic environment (with forcing from
Priscilla's remnants to the south and a larger-scale upper trough
near northwestern California) may continue to favor isolated
convection (and localized flash flooding) where surface-based
instability remains.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Jdk6OFcssdUL7VS0etkLp9eFcyqu60lBp3b6XIlLWIh9tEK6kdMQ5NReK5L-dQaWucF= YG37iFyInTAiKcPtjCcDujg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...LKN...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39071213 38351111 36601219 34201531 35791688=20
37251612 38791414=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110329
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-110928-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...much of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110328Z - 110928Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues as remnants of Priscilla
approach Arizona. Heavy rainfall will become more widespread for
a few hours tonight, causing instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Mid-level remnants of Priscilla are approaching
Arizona from the southwest. Ascent associated with the remnant
system has resulted in widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity across western and central sections of the state along
with 0.5-2.5 inch rainfall totals. The downstream airmass across
the discussion area remains abundantly moist (PWs ranging from 1
inch in the north to 2.1 inches southwest). Surface-based
instability is maximized across southwestern parts of the state
(1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and becomes minimal with northeastward extent.
The environment continues to support widespread light rain along
with locally heavier rain rates. Per the latest MRMS data, a few
spots along the CA/AZ border and in terrain-favored areas of
central AZ have exhibited rain rates approaching 0.5 inch/hr.

Ongoing trends are expected to continue through the overnight
hours. Precipitation may increase in intensity in a few areas as
ascent from Priscilla approaches from the southwest. The heaviest
rain rates will materialize as convective cells interact favorably
with moisture/instability across southern sections of the state
and orographic ascent locally raises rain rates near the Mogollon
Rim. Rain rates approaching 0.5-0.75 inch/hr remain a good bet on
at least an isolated basis over the next 6 hours (through 09Z/2a
PDT). Areas of excessive runoff and flash flooding are expected.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-s4mU2M4gKkfDKiII_txtBqRkRtjtGn3Pp4nG-GTR18GdfHaa_HQcp_3IdlOPjILY1yB= BmiaVG0D3r5YSkvOuuR8Wqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36461134 35660954 33490958 31771059 31851301=20
32741462 34551414 35311358=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111901
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Areas affected...southeastern AZ into western/central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111900Z - 120100Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 01Z (7
PM MDT/6 PM MST) across southeastern AZ into western and central
NM. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected where showers/thunderstorms align and train, and isolated spot storm
totals near 2 inches will be possible.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery showed a lead shortwave
trough extending from western CO into northern NM tracking toward
the east, associated with light to occasionally moderate rainfall.
Southeast of this feature, visible imagery showed a mixture of
clouds and mostly clear skies from southeastern AZ into central
NM. The environment across the region contained highly anomalous
moisture, with contributions from the tropical east Pacific,
represented by +3 to +4 standardized anomalies of PWAT. While
there was drier air aloft, the 18Z sounding from TUS contained a
PWAT of 1.66 inches (well above the climo max for mid-October) and
250 J/kg MLCAPE with a stable warm layer centered near 800 mb.
Where better heating is occurring across the region, instability
is likely a bit higher with 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing 500+
J/kg over much of southeastern AZ.

Continued heating over the next few hours is expected to support
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg later this afternoon over southeastern AZ,
with values closer to 500 J/kg into portions of NM. While a few
thunderstorms have been noted within a few disorganized cells
moving into western NM, additional development is anticipated with
better heating and weak forcing ahead of the aforementioned
shortwave and broader height falls ahead of a large upper trough
moving into the western U.S. In addition, an organizing upper jet
near 300 mb is expected to provide some added support in the form
of divergence and diffluence within its right entrance region over
the southern AZ/NM border.

As cells increase in coverage, mean WSW flow could promote some
repeating and brief training of cells into the early evening
hours. Expected hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected
which may result in some isolated flash flood issues atop
sensitive terrain, normally dry washes and/or remnant burn scars
widely scattered across the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vCZEOPLBt_AWvq-2nEyqh9zBSynSEPL7AVgbfrlDg9vDEXhDd7I6VQtGBAeZrEsTFKK= 6zVrJVaJlhNaoqRmjngsdDg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36230587 36050524 34620519 32930553 32410667=20
31830775 31230822 31160914 31091108 31621185=20
32611165 33581051 34680912 35800739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120514
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-120912-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...far west Texas, extreme southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120512Z - 120912Z

Summary...Conditional flash flood potential exists around the El
Paso, TX area for the next few hours.

Discussion...Deep tropical convection associated with the remnants
of Raymond continue to stream from northwestern Mexico into far
west Texas currently. Recent radar/MRMS observations depict
training/repeating with a recent uptick in convective intensity in
a cluster about 35 miles southwest of El Paso. Rain rates remain
modest, however (around 0.25 inch/hr), but an uptick in rates has
been noted southwest of El Paso also. The cells are in an
abundantly moist environment with 1.3-1.6 inch PW values.=20
Additionally, 1000 J/kg MUCAPE was sustaining stronger updrafts
and likely resulting in the convective uptick noted in recent
radar trends.

These cells are likely to persist northeastward into the El Paso
area over the next 2-4 hours. Rain rates may be marginal for
flash flooding, although urban impacts in/near El Paso appear to
be possible. Rain rates may both 1) exceed 0.5 inch/hr and 2)
persist for longer than an hour, both supportive of excessive
rainfall potential.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4uTcT5x5bOUWNZ6xNC_M0PQQni-ylZF99KF4dcC-e-UpbGBmZ9ZnOAIgL_ENvhR_QDJb= HyBxkQsydWHXrkGj-D_bCgY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32780684 32610532 31840485 30350475 31490627=20
31730817 31380832 31570901 32220855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120538
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-121037-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northwestern Arizona, southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120537Z - 121037Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are quickly developing across
the discussion area and producing 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates. A
few instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Robust thunderstorm activity is being forced by the
approach of a stout mid-level disturbance over Nevada currently.=20
The storms are embedded within a warm/moist axis along the
Colorado River, with 0.7-0.9 inch PW values and a narrow axis of
1000 J/kg SBCAPE along the Nevada/Arizona border area.=20
Convergence within this axis was also supporting ongoing updrafts.
The storms were embedded in relatively fast deep layer flow
(approaching 50 knots per objective analyses), resulting in quick
storm motions. Localized backbuilding and training were the likely
mechanisms for enhancing local rain rates.

Unfortunately, these rates were falling in/near areas prone to
flooding, with slot canyons and local burn scars noted in the
area. Ongoing trends are expected to continue for at least a few
hours. Fast eastward storm motions may tend to carry some of the
convection eastward toward a slightly drier airmass with weaker
buoyancy, resulting in weakening. Meanwhile, some backbuilding
may occur within the remaining warm/moist axis in northwestern
Arizona, contributing to a localized flash flood threat there.=20
Models suggest that this convective threat should be relatively
short-lived, ending by 09-10Z as cooler/drier air filters into the
discussion area from the northwest.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_0SwQEhlfDReAPwWpzIzQjUrALF3GxWI77foRe-9F-okottKbSMgqIipQ7bHdyOkUkPX= -mHgrcbUliWrMtohKG6aF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38091207 37391099 35451202 34491323 34561438=20
35911468 37381378=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120812
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121411-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120811Z - 121411Z

Summary...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage through at least 13Z/7a MST this morning.=20
Areas of flash flooding are expected during that timeframe.

Discussion...Larger-scale ascent was beginning to overspread much
of the Southwest due to a stout mid-level wave centered over
Nevada and northwestern Utah. Meanwhile, a pool of 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE and weak inhibition has supported development of scattered
thunderstorms from the Phoenix area east to near Globe. The
storms are embedded in a moist airmass (1.1-1.5 inch PW values),
supporting rain rates at or above 1 inch/hr in the strongest
cells. Relatively quick movement has been noted owing to 40 knots
of mean steering flow. However, as cells continue to expand in
coverage and intensity, local mergers and backbuilding should also
bump rain rates to above 1 inch/hr at times. The flash flood
risk will increase as a result.

Models/CAMs suggest that the greatest concentration of
thunderstorm activity will reside along and just south of the
Mogollon Rim through 13Z/7a MST this morning. This includes the
Phoenix Metro area. Much of the discussion area remains well
ahead of any low-level boundaries that could stabilize this
airmass, and with continued ascent/height falls over the region,
flash flood potential will likely extend beyond 13Z/7a MST. Both
urban and sensitive/low-lying areas will have the greatest flash
flood risk.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5KHFFKLCfKHP79HS4HKsVvL2N0a3s-xJb_9m1OwSChAQUXuANbCvsiVKZ0v7LtkRGvIq= u6ucjJEG3YhQQhL9CEz7PrU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34471072 34050941 32830932 31381045 31801316=20
32601435 33471431 33951357 34201246=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121201
FFGMPD
SCZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/northern SC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121159Z - 121530Z

Summary...Localized high rain rates will continue a localized
flash flood threat for the central and northern coastline of SC
for another few hours. Hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches can be
expected at times.

Discussion...Localized heavy rain in and southeast of Georgetown
has resulted in MRMS estimates of 6 to 10 inches since midnight,
with a few Wunderground.com observations showing 6-7 inches in the
city and along the coast. A strong surface low (991 mb) has been
slow moving and was analyzed 115 miles east of Georgetown at 11Z
and a slow moving low level convergence axis has focused an area
of heavy rain containing hourly rainfall between 2-3 inches over
coastal Georgetown County over the past couple of hours. While
some weakening has occurred, VAD wind data showed ~50 kt of
925-850 mb winds oriented from the northeast, parallel to the
coast at KTLX, veering to a weaker and more perpendicular
orientation at KCLX. Aloft, a potent divergence maximum was
located along the coast of the Carolinas within the left-exit
region of a 90-100 kt jet streak, east of an upper low located
over the FL/GA border.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low finally begins to
make some northward progress over the next 6 hours along with a
disruption to the nearly stationary low level convergence axis due
to further weakening of the low level flow over southern NC and
veering of the low level winds along the central SC coast over the
next few hours. This should allow hourly rainfall values to lessen
while translating southward through 15Z. Until then however,
continued slow movement of heavy rain will maintain a localized
flash flood threat along the Grand Strand with additional rainfall
of 3 to 6 inches possible before expected weakening of rainfall
intensities.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9M6bl6rYLJauILWID5zfksfrEPk_qS1vLL9uhykKPT9FQF1fRT8Ctn6Vte8xF_bVNp0Y= 77fIcq5-CJ3JROmH5IY1qzk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33947966 33887900 33737869 33557848 33107858=20
33007873 32907930 33058024 33238047 33468048=20
33698029 33888006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121402
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-121830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/southern AZ into western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121400Z - 121830Z

SUMMARY...Scattered Thunderstorms are likely to continue a few
areas of flash flooding across central/southern AZ over the next
3-5 hours, possibly extending into western NM. Hourly rainfall
over 1 inch will be found within areas of training.

DISCUSSION...1330Z radar imagery across south-central AZ showed
scattered thunderstorms, with a history of backbuilding and
training, despite individual cell motions off toward the ENE at
20-30 kt. OSPO ALPW imagery showed that the cells were located
just ahead of a slow moving, north-south oriented, 850-700 mb
moisture gradient found over the lower CO River Valley with
notable directional shear between the KYUX and KIWA 850 mb wind
vectors. The moisture plume over AZ remained anomalously high with contributions from former T.C. Raymond in the eastern Pacific. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 12Z estimated PWAT values between 1.0 and
1.5 inches over the southern half of AZ along with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE over south-central to southwestern AZ. In addition, AZ was
situated within the right-entrance region of a 130+ kt upper level
jet max extending from southern NV into northwestern CO.

RAP forecasts over the next 3-6 hours show weakening 850-700 mb
moisture transport into southern AZ but some increase in
instability is expected over southwestern AZ due to the onset of
daytime heating and continued jet-induced divergence aloft will
remain. So while there are some conflicting signals for continued
thunderstorm generation, lingering forcing for ascent should
maintain thunderstorm formation over southwestern to south-central
AZ over at least the next 2-4 hours. Mean steering flow from the
WSW will continue periods of training as some backbuilding
continues to occur, resulting in hourly rainfall of at least 0.5
to 1.0 inches, but idealized training could result in 1-2 inches
in an hour. A few areas of flash flooding are likely to continue,
especially within the near-saturated ground conditions across the
I-8 and I-10 corridors to the SSW of Phoenix.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7CvMA4CCxnaj_imwspYmaKZ96HLsNeVMrki7GJBp4PWN5OG2h-rTDQx7H_mf8HNXVA86= 8E44IHoniiUZxA8NDcsDLso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34750934 34160876 33390883 32380957 31781075=20
31521189 31641255 32091427 33051418 33751272=20
34511103=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121631
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northern SC coast into southern NC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121629Z - 122200Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will remain a concern along the
northern coast of SC into the southern coast of NC into the
mid-afternoon hours. High rain rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are expected
at times, which may overlap with wet soils across the Grand Stand
region and/or the Wilmington metro.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery showed that a surface low
offshore of the NC/SC coast has moved a little north since 12Z and
was estimated to be 993 mb and ~90 miles east of North Myrtle
Beach at 16Z. A strong axis of low level convergence southwest of
the surface low continued to focus an area of heavy rain along the
coast of Horry County, with local Wunderground observations
showing hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches since 13Z and 2-5 inches of
rain since midnight. Strong convergence also existed north of the
low along and just offshore of the southern NC coast along an
occluded frontal boundary as seen in visible satellite imagery.
Despite the strong convergence along the NC coast and 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE, deep convection has been lacking. In addition to this
area being beneath the dry slot of the cyclone as seen on water
vapor imagery, the 12Z sounding from MHX is telling, indicating a
warm nose at 675 mb, capping the otherwise weakly unstable
sounding.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low will continue a slow
northward motion through 00Z with an elevated instability gradient
hugging the NC coast, with 1000+ J/kg just offshore but quickly
lowering to <500 J/kg for inland locations. Low level convergence
to the southwest of the surface low will likely continue to focus
heavy showers/thunderstorms with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall for
another couple of hours, despite weak instability. This area may
drift or refocus just north of its present position.

Farther north toward Cape Lookout, it would only take cooling of
~2 C within the warm nose noted on the MHX sounding to support the
production of deep convection which would be capable of hourly
rainfall between 2 and 3 inches given the forecast of near
stationary movement of the coastal convergence axis. While this
development would be highly conditional, it is worth highlighting.

Therefore, while localized, a flash flood threat will remain
likely from the northern SC coast into the southern NC coast
through 21 to 22Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-MGmYAWFLP-8h-N2F2SLpu7JCGZPpXWLFV4r3tDZoxOW7cV0nQYMFNcr8PGC8l-ePmiE= UAiROu1FlKZ5wG-PtqmGJDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35057725 34887687 34707655 34447646 34227663=20
33727769 33157852 33087933 33497983 33887982=20
34417925 34737862 35047795=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121829
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southwestern to south-central to southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121828Z - 130025Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered flash flooding appears likely to
continue over portions of southwestern to south-central to
southeastern AZ through 00Z. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour
or less time should be expected within training of stronger cells.

DISCUSSION...GOES West water vapor and visible satellite imagery
at 18Z showed thunderstorms forming just ahead of the southeastern
leading edge of a longwave trough over the western U.S., and
within the right-entrance region of an associated 130-150 kt upper
level jet max over northern AZ into UT and western CO. A WSW to
ENE axis of thunderstorms has been persistent over the past
several hours from southwestern AZ to locations just south of the
Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ. These storms were forming within
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs of 1.0 to 1.5 inches per 18Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. Also of note, visible imagery showed a surface
low over the northern Gulf of California, with warm/moist air
feeding northward to the east of the surface low into northwestern
Sonora and southern Yuma County.

Over the next few hours, thunderstorms are expected to continue
regenerating over southwestern AZ, with low level moisture
transport on the eastern side of the Gulf low, with individual
cell movement toward the ENE. Farther to the east, visible imagery
showed outflow propagating southward from Pinal and southern
Maricopa counties into northwestern Pima County. Surface heating
between breaks in cloud cover over south-central and portions of
southeastern AZ should allow for increasing instability with peak
heating this afternoon. Development of additional storms along
outflow and diurnal development along areas of higher terrain,
south of the ongoing WSW to ENE axis to the north, should increase
thunderstorm coverage through 21Z-00Z.

The combination of these several different forcing mechanisms
should support scattered coverage of thunderstorms through the
afternoon along with isolated to scattered coverage of flash
flooding with hourly rainfall totals maxing out in the 1 to 2 inch
range and potential for isolated totals near 3 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7oN7bYhG37msCKXOgYR3jbNNsmojlcqoqFccUKN3uUyV6GLvhIHTFLF6BVQ2Y-Ux3gjy= rmnzjmZ1qqBXuMYwNMp7KRg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34011025 33890934 33000896 32010906 31380965=20
31111064 31291187 31921376 32161455 32591460=20
32891345 33711147=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122202
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-130400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SC...Southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122200Z - 130400Z

SUMMARY...Highly concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will
continue to foster flash flooding impacts, some potentially
significant, across portions of northeast SC and southern NC going
into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A strong coastal low continues to positioned just
offshore of southeast NC to the east of Wilmington. A combination
of this and the relatively strong area of high pressure over
southeast Canada continues to channel a strong and very moist
low-level jet into the western flank of the low center where there
is currently a strongly forced environment for heavy rainfall and
embedded convection.

The 850/925 mb flow across southeast NC and into adjacent areas of
far northeast SC is on the order of 40 to 50 kts. This is yielding
strong moisture convergence which coupled with a nose of modest
instability with MUCAPE values of 250 to 500 J/kg and notable
divergence aloft for deep layer ascent is continuing to foster
highly concentrated areas of very heavy rainfall.

In fact the last radar imagery shows an axis of extremely heavy
rainfall with embedded thunderstorms impacting Columbus County in
southeast NC, and wrapping westward into Horry and Dillon Counties
of northeast SC. Rainfall rates are currently on the order of 1.5
to 2.5 inches/hour across these areas, and some rainfall totals
here of 3 to 6 inches have occurred in the last 6 hours alone.

Fortunately, the heaviest rains have pulled away from areas of
northeast SC (especially along the Grand Strand) that were hard
hit this morning and midday from very heavy rainfall totals, but
the slow movement and concentrated nature of the current activity
near the SC/NC border will support notable concerns in the
near-term for additional heavy to extreme rainfall amounts. An
additional 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible at least locally
this evening, and this will favor additional areas of flash
flooding, some of which may be locally significant.

By later this evening, the surface low should begin to weaken as
the low becomes more vertically stacked, and this will allow for
the deeper layer ascent to subside along with the rainfall rates.
Therefore, conditions are expected to gradually improve later
tonight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4L8ZzFVuIyGn9B93YrY6I7bclVPXxiM0vD4PqVPCOyRwbcANCiayCfYMOHLE0e-0QMqj= t96ZY9h5wCl_OqufwQHJsHE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34927906 34877804 34537752 33917775 33647859=20
33087923 33298005 33948033 34537994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130018
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130015Z - 130515Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the evening hours. Additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...There continues to be the redevelopment of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of southern AZ, with
the late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery showing scattered areas
of moderately cold-topped convection. The activity continues to be
fostered by an unstable and moist boundary layer characterized by
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg along with presence of
favorable right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics.

Moisture remains well-entrenched across the region with PWs of
1.25 to 1.5+ inches which for this time of the year are a solid 3
to 4 standard deviations above normal. Some of the moisture at
least in the low-levels across southern AZ is being aided by
southerly flow off the very warm and moist northern Gulf of CA
which has been facilitated by placement of a weak area of low
pressure and an associated surface trough.

This moisture coupled with the instability continues to support
convection capable of producing high rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour. Additionally, there is a fair amount of effective
bulk shear overhead with magnitudes of 30 to 40+ kts. This coupled
with the instability has been yielding some organized convective
structures with enhanced updrafts and thus sustainment of heavier
rainfall rates.

The loss of daytime heating suggests at least a gradual weakening
trend of convection by later this evening, but at least for the
near-term, there should continue to be sufficient levels of at
least modest deep layer jet-aided ascent and instability for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist. Local orographics
involving areas of terrain will also facilitate pockets of
convective sustenance.

Additional rainfall totals by late this evening may reach 2+
inches where any convective cells persist or locally repeat over
the same area. This may drive some additional pockets of flash
flooding which will mainly be a concern for the normally dry
washes, but could also involve some localized urban impacts around
the Tucson metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YEL2OR_R9nVQKu6jESrZY6TyJn6HIQPQyFv9I-sxKXKZtGhC_v6tKrAWMpvr3SV9Ayr= BlzC6WR-t86FsYtTyHMzgj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32860959 32520906 31880894 31470910 31220981=20
31221119 31341186 31741295 32181308 32541273=20
32661217 32671099=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 131909
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-140100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131908Z - 140100Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall
rates coupled with moist antecedent conditions and elevated
streamflows will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows a substantial
amount of cloud cover across southeast AZ and southwest NM in
association with broken areas of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, a bit more clearing and stronger diurnal heating as a
result is seen across central AZ into some adjacent areas of
west-central NM. This includes portions of the Mogollon Rim.

The latest RAP analysis does show as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of
MLCAPE pooling near and just southwest of the Mogollon Rim, and
this coupled with additional boundary layer heating should help
support the development and expansion of showers and thunderstorms
across the orographically favored higher terrain and especially
the south-facing slopes.

In general, much of the region is seeing at least some deeper
layer ascent via favorable right-entrance region upper-jet
dynamics. This is occurring downstream of an amplifying trough and
associated closed low along the West Coast. This forcing will
complement the uptick in instability and orographics for a more
expansive convective footprint across central and eastern AZ and
into western NM going through the afternoon hours.

The convective activity over southeast AZ and southwest NM has at
least some weak support from mid-level vort energy traversing the
region, and while this will tend to mitigate the instability
profiles in the short-term, it will favor there being some
differential heating boundaries that could support convective
initiation around the periphery of the deeper cloud canopy.

Many of the 12Z HREF members and other experimental NSSL-driven
MPAS solutions support there being an uptick in instability-driven
convection across areas of south-central AZ including the Mogollon
Rim in particular between 21Z and 00Z. Given the instability and
moderate levels of effective bulk shear, the uptick in convection
may include some organization with sustainably strong updrafts.
Given the anomalously moist environment, some rainfall rates of up
to 1.5+ inches/hour will be possible.

Some 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals may occur locally where any
repeating cell-activity materializes and also into the terrain
with more favorable orographics. This coupled with moist
antecedent conditions and locally elevated streamflows from recent
rainfall may pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding this afternoon. This will include potential impacts
to arroyos and burn scar locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ogxy5DCi9cWIQbhXhCaUHZOuco2FCVpE5gdOn5PZICmwxpn6_kH2mvyrJIjwda-6BFn= 8t4CMV3jHgCPm3smO2odUjs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35900735 35510682 34780671 33510733 31940754=20
31230863 31211049 31611134 32761208 33341260=20
34111268 34771208 34961080 34660940 34920852=20
35740795=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132231
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1193
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
630 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central/Eastern AZ...Western/Central
NM...Southwest CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132230Z - 140430Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact areas
of central and eastern AZ through western and central NM along
with southwest CO. Given elevated streamflows from recent rainfall
along with locally high rainfall rates this evening, additional
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery along with regional
radar data shows a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting areas of central and eastern AZ through western and
central NM, with an emphasis on areas near and adjacent to the
Mogollon Rim. The convection continues to be enhanced by the
gradual northeastward advance of modest shortwave energy that is
embedded within the deeper layer southwest flow ahead of a
stronger upper-level trough and closed low dropping south along
the West Coast.

The latest RAP analysis does show as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg of
MUCAPE across areas of south-central AZ and separately across far
northwest NM and far southwest CO near the Four Corners. The
instability in particular over south-central AZ continues to
combine with moist low to mid-level southerly flow to support
convection with high rainfall rates that are occasionally reaching
1.5+ inches/hour. Elevated effective bulk shear is also favoring
some organized multicells and persistence of the activity that
coupled with orographics into the Mogollon Rim is yielding heavier
rainfall totals.

More recently, satellite imagery has been showing some greater
vertical depth of convection across western NM and also in a more
cellular manner across parts of southwest CO where improving
instability and moist upslope flow into the San Juan Mountains is
fostering an uptick in stronger thunderstorm activity.

Going through the evening hours, as moist flow and at least modest
instability continue to interact with the aforementioned shortwave
energy and favorable orographic environment, there should continue
to be broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Additional
rainfall amounts may reach as high as 2 to 3 inches where any
cell-training occurs, and this is consistent with a consensus of
18Z HREF/12Z REFS model suites.

The antecedent conditions are quite wet, and especially over areas
of the Mogollon Rim and the high country of southwest CO near and
adjacent to the San Juan Mountains. Given the additional rainfall
expected this evening, there will likely be more potential for
isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7doVrWLjkwQa72VYniJNk6xk1yGikKd6Rti1oorXg66cVvPKz9cZGGsOU9oSXa0LDLGE= 6mPmcEvU8gOdRrz06ahPmiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38440769 38300643 37560577 35720564 34050625=20
33160789 32890989 32981093 33441197 34381233=20
35001172 35211039 35750938 36450879 37770835=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 132317
FFGMPD
CAZ000-140515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Areas affected...Central CA Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132315Z - 140515Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will
impact areas around the Bay Area through early this evening. While
spreading gradually farther south along the coastal ranges, some
of these heavier rains should spread into portions of the Central
Valley. An urban flooding threat will exist, and especially around
the Bay Area, with an isolated burn scar flash flood threat as
well over some of the adjacent higher terrain.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite shows a strong upper-level
low continuing to deepen as it drops southward just offshore of
the West Coast. A rather strong frontal structure associated with
these height falls coupled with enhanced upper-level jet
divergence/forcing overspreading the central CA coastal ranges,
including the Bay Area, along with adjacent portions of the
Central Valley will support areas of heavy showers and potentially
a few stronger thunderstorms going through the evening hours.

A nose of MUCAPE values reaching 250 to 500 J/kg is noted along
and just ahead of a developing frontal occlusion near the Bay
Area, and radar imagery has been showing an increase in linear
bands of convection along and just ahead of the front as it pivots
inland from the coast. Deep layer forcing is expected to
strengthen this evening which coupled with moist Pacific flow
should favor some linearly oriented bands of convection to
potentially make it even into parts of the Central Valley.

Lowering ELs associated with the upper low and modest instability
will favor low/warm-topped convective elements in this dynamically
forced environment that will be rather efficient and capable of
producing rainfall rates of up to 1 inch/hour.

The relatively high rainfall rates coupled with favorable upslope
flow into the coastal ranges will support some spotty 2 to 3+ inch
rainfall totals. Generally, the interior areas of the Central
Valley will see lesser totals, but some of the stronger convective
elements here that occur may foster some locally excessive totals
of 1 to 2+ inches.

Concerns will exist for some urban flooding, and especially around
the Bay Area through early this evening. Some of the area burn
scars will also need to be closely watched for at least an
isolated concern for flash flooding and debris flow activity.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81rbhW0x8wR3EO92eXMf25Y-xC4pJGG5MjnbkZfa-pUGIzV2eud_0tr7iX73qqqvfje-= GwodklBZKSVXr2hLPCfeBy4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40672288 40552224 39362123 38122061 36672049=20
35892024 35372018 35252070 35542130 36122186=20
36792231 37442256 38762273 40092333=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140535
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141134-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140534Z - 141134Z

Summary...Strong onshore flow will continue to promote areas of
heavy rainfall, with rates of 0.5-1 inch/hr becoming possible
along upslope terrain areas. Flash flooding is likely -
especially where heavier rainfall can materialize across burn
scars and other sensitive areas.

Discussion...A strong mid-upper low centered just west of San
Francisco continues to move very slowly while promoting strong
onshore flow across coastal areas of central California. Cold
upper levels has fostered areas of 500 J/kg MUCAPE, promoting
heavier rainfall in occasional convective bands that have traveled
toward land on the southern and eastern peripheries of low. A
belt of strong low- to mid-level flow (around 30 knots at 850mb)
is oriented parallel to coastal ranges between Monterey and San
Luis Obispo and was also aiding in heavy rainfall via orographic
lift. The heaviest rain was located along and just ahead of a
cold front that was migrating southward along the coastline near
Monterey.

Over time, the strongest of onshore flow will shift southward
along the coast toward the Transverse ranges. 1-1.2 inch PW
values and minimal instability will continue to promote heavy
rainfall and rain rates exceeding 0.5 inch/hr at times. Areas of
southern California (including the Transverse Ranges and Los
Padres National Forest) will likely experience the heaviest of
activity through 12Z. Local burn scars will enhance rainfall
potential, and typical low-lying, flood prone spots will also be
susceptible to flash flooding.

An additional area of lighter rain is likely to be maintained
across portions of central California and the southern San Joaquin
Valley. Rain rates should be a bit lighter in most of these areas
(0.1-0.5 inch/hr), but should persist for several areas and cause
at least minor runoff issues.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-dO1Xb2Ee8YLBuIuvDf85AIky-PetUOunsyiThjwn7Y8rlK121JgeIM0rNgFvnj-c9eT= go8jJRBI5P6kxqAQQc-DrW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...SGX...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38842155 38022017 37111947 36371911 35691934=20
35001888 34561784 33881774 33511810 33921923=20
34602076 35982190 36902208 37802222 38582215=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141239
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141838-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1196
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141238Z - 141838Z

Summmary...A band of showers and thunderstorms should continue to
move east with time. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" and local
totals in the 2-4" range are possible, which would be most
problematic in area burn scars.

Discussion...A narrow plume of moisture and instability near an
incoming front and ahead of a cold low to the west-northwest of
San Luis Obispo is expected to continue moving eastward through
southern CA this morning. Precipitable water values of 1-1.1" per
GPS data and MU CAPE of 250+ J/kg exist in this region.

HREF guidance shows a high chance of 0.5"+ in an hour, though very
low chances of 1"+, which fits the available ingredients. As
instability winnows with time, the potential for 1" amounts should
decrease. The mesoscale guidance suggests local amounts in the
2-4" during the next six hours. Locations with the most concern
would be area burn scars, which would be more susceptible to
runoff/debris flows.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ufGLYKOP3DvquOzB86le3R3uxQpJxz2mBWSXE2K_3KzVyoYR-B7DXWvA1xvNFvERdMP= Kj5w75GoM8zlDlV1JUBMTKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34891939 34771818 34551743 34491729 34311662=20
33891676 33151731 33591833 33631836 33941868=20
34001916 34191957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141826
FFGMPD
CAZ000-150015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141824Z - 150015Z

SUMMARY...Locally heavy showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
will maintain a threat for areal flooding impacts including
potential burn scar flash flooding going through early this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A strong upper-level low and an associated frontal
occlusion continues to drop gradually down across southern CA. The
latest GOES-W visible and infrared satellite imagery shows the
leading edge of the cold front and heavy rainfall continuing to
advance through the Los Angeles Basin, with a substantial amount
of post-frontal shower activity maintaining pockets of locally
heavy rainfall.

Rainfall rates with some of the stronger convective elements along
the front and also into the southwest-facing slopes of the San
Gabriel and San Bernadino Mountains have been upwards of 0.50" to
0.75"/hour, and these rates are likely to be maintained at least
for a few more hours as the axis of stronger moisture transport
and convergence with the front continues to advance southeastward
down the coast with an approach on the Peninsular Range.

However, post-frontal instability associated with steepening
mid-level lapse rates closer to the upper low will combine with
low-level cyclonic flow into the terrain to maintain plenty of
shower activity and perhaps a few thunderstorms going through this
afternoon and early this evening. Additionally, the stronger
dynamics associated with the digging upper-level low and influx of
Pacific moisture wrapping northward up into the upslope areas of
the southern Sierra Nevada and also the southern parts of the San
Joaquin Valley will continue to foster areas of heavy rainfall
here which will include a threat for some intense low-top
convective showers.

The heaviest additional rainfall totals should generally be across
parts of the San Gabriel Mountains and especially the San
Bernadino Mountains where as much as an additional 2 to 3 inches
of rain may fall (below snow line) by this evening.

Lowering snow-levels in time will tend to mitigate some of the
runoff potential for the highest terrain, but sufficient rainfall
over especially the Pacific-facing slopes and into some of the
urban areas is expected to maintain concerns through early this
evening for areal flooding impacts and some burn scar flash
flooding. Rockslides and some localized debris flow activity near
and downstream from burn scar locations will continue to be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!83FIFmAZaUM2GZvSWjpAzgDb6wd4huOGcng7Ub5DWl4vbFkk3gdakmRFYie4oeWgfNL2= gvwbxQkRB4_o43BTnrHX9WY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36621923 36061849 35241815 34811741 34361675=20
33991649 33341652 32631664 32571701 32781734=20
33401770 33651827 33791851 33911881 34061919=20
34151938 34291957 34441994 35251986 35902019=20
36312014=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 150525
FFGMPD
NMZ000-151123-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1198
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...southern/central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150523Z - 151123Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are developing over
south-central New Mexico near Truth or Consequences. Areas of 0.5
inch/hr rates were already being observed. These rates could
increase to around 1-1.5 inch/hr at times while moving northward
across the state. Isolated flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms were developing in the southern Rio
Grande Valley of New Mexico over the past hour. These cells were
drifting northward at around 25 knots. They were also embedded in
a relatively narrow axis of weak to moderate instability (1000
J/kg SBCAPE) and moisture (1-1.2 inch PW values), supporting brief
heavy rainfall. The orientation of this convection (with movement
parallel to the moist/unstable axis) was promoting localized
training/repeating cells, with rain rates peaking at around
0.5-0.75 inch/hr per MRMS. Low-level convergence on the nose of
southeasterly 850mb flow across the eastern Plains was also
contributing to ascent along the moist axis in tandem with subtle
height falls from a larger-scale system centered over California.

Each of these factors all point to a gradual increase in
convective coverage across the discussion area over the next few
hours, with storms drifting northward toward the central part of
the state. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates could occur on a spotty
basis. FFG thresholds exhibit spots of thresholds as low as 1
inch/hr in the discussion area, suggesting isolated potential for
excessive runoff. Additionally, a few burn scars in the vicinity
may support excessive runoff on a localized basis.

Eventually, the combination of convective overturning and
nocturnal boundary layer stabilization will lead to a decrease in
convective coverage (and attendant flash flood potential).=20
Low-level convergence may also slacken toward 10Z as 850mb flow
veers to more southerly across the eastern Plains, decreasing
convective potential as well. These processes will take a few
hours to play out, with isolated flash flood potential persisting
through at least 10Z/4a Mountain Time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ReaygMsm86PXcG_rHp7rBfT2EdmFiuvKZ-K63YsskLunA1cM-ami3emW1Xk-CwkjbLI= Whsnzo8WpliTI3gaTv-DBmA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36710485 36150431 34220501 32500611 31880695=20
32030839 33680809 35790721 36470604=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 160227
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-160815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1199
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Areas affected...northern NM into southern CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160225Z - 160815Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible through 08Z (2
AM MDT) from northern NM into southern CO with peak hourly
rainfall between 0.5 and 1.0 inches.

Discussion...02Z GOES East infrared imagery, lightning data and
MRMS reflectivity showed a broken line of thunderstorms stretching
from Rio Arriba County in northern NM into southern portions of
the CO Rockies. Additional convective development was beginning to
strengthen to the southeast of this axis, near Los Alamos and
Santa Fe. These thunderstorms were occurring out ahead of a potent
closed mid-level low tracking east through the Great Basin and
associated cold front at the surface. Instability via ABQ's 00Z
sounding and 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE between
500-1000 J/kg along with anomalous PWATs between 0.6 and 0.9
inches. Aiding ascent was divergence within the right-entrance
region of a 110+ kt upper level jet extending from eastern UT into
central WY.

Within the lingering instability over northern NM and southern CO,
additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next few
hours as the upper trough and cold front move east. Steering flow
is unidirectional from the SSW which could support some repeating
and brief training, containing hourly rainfall up to about 1 inch.
This will promote a very localized flash flood threat, which will
mostly stay focused across sensitive burn scars and any shallow
creeks or low water crossings.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9I9xdFVxTL3vOwEpa1JcByNqp-50AWQAvmbPEt5XUN0EeMmSpBINvCQb-OKHv89mNLC1= DeXenphqlok7yBazRX1ljSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37990562 37750483 36860430 35870490 35100584=20
34920660 35160697 35490707 36270704 37340655=20
37750613=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181305
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-181904-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1200
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 AM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...MO/KS/AR/OK border area

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181304Z - 181904Z

Summary...There is growing convective coverage near the
MO/KS/AR/OK border region. Hourly amounts to 2" with local
amounts to 4" are expected, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...WSR-88D radar and SPC mesoanalyses reveal a
noticeable decrease in CIN across the area, which is leading to
increased shower and thunderstorm coverage near the MO/KS/AR/OK
border region. A significant shortwave is approaching the region
from the TX Panhandle, which is clearly seen in GOES-19 water
vapor imagery. Precipitable water values are 1.42" at Springfield
MO, per the 12z sounding. MU CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg lies in the
region per SPC mesoanalyses. Effective bulk shear is 40 kts. The
flow at 850 hPa in convergent into the region ahead of a frontal
boundary.

The guidance shows increasing moisture into the region, due to
both convective coverage and a slight uptick in low-level inflow
into the region. Both the 850 hPa convergence and incoming front
are expected to remain foci for convective activity as we move
through the late morning into the early afternoon, which should
further increase in coverage and intensity with time. Convection
could lay down a mesoscale boundary across southern MO and
northwest AR with time. Both the 06z HREF and 00z REFS appear to
be too far to the east initially with areas receiving heavy
rainfall, but the RAP guidance shows boundary layer moisture
convergence extending eastward across portions of southern MO, so
the expectation is for a convective band to attempt to form with
embedded mesocyclones, with each meoscyclone both capable of heavy
rainfall on its own and holding up any convective band forward
propagation temporarily. This should lead to hourly rain amounts
to 2" with local totals to 4" which would be most problematic in
urban areas and Ozarks. Isolated to widely scattered occurrences
of flash flooding is expected. Recent dryness should keep other
areas from seeing significant impacts, so long as the convective
development isn't more efficient than forecast.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!40hfYk-1H3mqxauxt8LFL7ErVg-dzpIVbsmuIKyRedH_g40xaen4MIOLF1Nof91U35gm= jI6Yxkb353ch7ObsDOa3sIg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38589292 37719078 36169372 35669512 36309577=20
37949468=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181710
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-182300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1201
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Southern Illinois...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181710Z - 182300Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged training of moderate rainfall with occasional
heavy bursts up to 1.5"/hr and localized totals of 2-3" and
perhaps an isolated 3.5"+. Rates and totals are on the edge of
FFG exceedance in drought/hard ground conditions for a possible
incident or two of low-end flash flooding conditions, manly near
urban or prone locations.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible/10.3um EIR loops depict a steadily
cooling and consolidating scattered line of convection across the
Eastern Ozark Plateau toward S IL. The stronger southern stream
shortwave over central OK continues to progress and amply along
the southeast portion of the larger scale trough while strong
upper-level jet streak is finally rounding the base and expanding
toward 110kts across KS into north-central MO in the next hour or
so. The combination of mid-level features and weak outflow from
convection is starting to combine the confluence/ascent axis
downstream of the orthogonal strong convergence along and
downstream of the southern stream shortwave over southern MO. The
confluence axis is also aligning with the deeper moisture (up to
1.6" attm) and elevated instability axis (up to 1500 J/kg),
resulting in the uptick in convective vigor across south-central
MO into SW IL. The overall coverage of cells remains scattered
though some embedded cores have be observed producing .25-.5"
totals in 15-30 minutes with hourly totals nearing 1-1.25". As
low level flow and moisture flux continue to strengthen with
rapidly expanding divergence area aloft from the strong right
entrance region to the 110kt jet, occasional hourly totals up to
1.5" are not out of the possibility.

The key for flash flooding will be duration and soil conditions
along the training axis. As the shortwave further amplifies, the
deep steering flow appears to favor a slight northward shift,
which should counteract the southeastward propagation expected
from cold pool generation. This will allow the cells to remain
favorable for longer training of 1-3 hours, but the lack of
extreme instability and oblique convergence may continue to result
in scattered to widely scattered nature of the stronger cores,
limiting totals to 2-3", though an isolated spot of 3.5"+ is not
completely out of the realm of possibility, with best potential
upstream across south-central MO toward SE MO.

The good news is the core of the training cells appear to be
aligned ideally with the axis of the highest FFG values (2-3"/hr
and 3-4"/3hrs), though there are some urban and complex/hilly
terrain through the area that would be more prone. Additionally,
the area has been in prolonged drought with 0-40 cm soil moisture
ratios below 30%, mainly less than 15%. This is also suggestive
that soils are compacted and probably a bit hydrophobic, limiting
initial infiltration. As such, if first rainfall is the intense
burst of those stronger cores, greater runoff should be expected.
As such, an isolated to widely scattered incident or two of
low-end flash flooding remains possible though the afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7njN2zcMasRNWG6xZRNgFfwZq6fEN-ToDcdjwyTX0eJXZ26_9ru8q-Qslh1yYr6mA4cF= TZmd9siu458_So0TeuvC45Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39418894 39418811 38998773 38388802 37688947=20
37229051 36939204 37589260 38239302 38809176=20
39219019=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190302
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-190800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1202
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...northern LA/MS border into north-central MS and
western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190259Z - 190800Z

Summary...Training of heavy rain is expected to result in 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour and localized totals of 2 to 4 inches
through 08Z from the LA/MS border into western AL. These higher
rain rates may result in isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar mosaic imagery from 0230Z showed a NE to SW
axis of thunderstorms extending from western TN into northern and
western MS and far northeastern LA, co-located with an elongated
outflow boundary. A few linear clusters of thunderstorms were also
observed upstream, across southern AR into northwestern LA,
located ahead of the base of an upper trough tracking east through
OK and northern TX. The environment across the Lower Mississippi
Valley was characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs
between 1.7 and 2.1 inches per 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data and the
00Z sounding from JAN. Southerly to southwesterly 850 mb winds of
30-40 kt were present from LA into MS, allowing low level moisture
transport and lift atop rain-cooled air with mean storm motions
oriented from the southwest in MS but veering toward the west
across northwestern LA. Flow aloft was diffluent, out ahead of the
base of the larger scale upper trough located over the central U.S.

Given the available instability and source region emanating from
the south, continued forcing via synoptic scale and mesoscale
processes, some filling in of convection between the leading
outflow in MS and trailing activity in northern LA is expected
over the next couple of hours. The potential for training is high
from the MS River eastward, but the duration of training is
questionable. However, even a 30-60 minute window of SW to NE
training should be able to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain with
potential for 2-4 inches if training is able to set up for a bit
longer duration. These rainfall values may result in flash
flooding.

Dry antecedent conditions should limit flash flood potential, but
these locally higher rain rates could focus an isolated threat
across urban locations or other locations of poor drainage. The
flash flood threat is expected to move east out of the area after
08Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6MfX7yQlfiyfp69R0kFRwFC3E8EHDjXyDpEXrvnWCgZOK-zFQ-gELrRZAMUrmhSEBGtP= 3elaqsqk3bTTxnZoW3dWFAk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34128834 33358769 32428824 31579042 31779220=20
32609218 33249096 34018968=20

=3D =3D =3D
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