ABNT20 KNHC 031133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas
along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to
meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance
with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce
heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today.
The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some
slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical
depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

= = = = = = =
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ABNT20 KNHC 041137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Bahamas and Southern Florida:
A weak area of low pressure located near the northwestern Bahamas
continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is
expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas
and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however
development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east
coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

North-Central Gulf:
A weak area of low pressure has formed over the north-central Gulf
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two,
reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system
is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of the wave is possible over
the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression by the
middle to latter part of next week while moving across the
central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 051138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

North-Central Gulf:
A weak area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to
move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the
coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not
expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 061117
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands
by the latter part of the week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 071127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland
over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless
of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern
Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 080550
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
southern Mexico later today or early Thursday. Regardless of
development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across
portions of southern Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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ABNT20 KNHC 091137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located few hundred miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

North Atlantic (AL96):
A gale-force non-tropical area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing
limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or
tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or
two before it moves over even cooler waters and into a stronger
shear environment. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service and Meteo France.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at https://urldefense.com/v3/__http s://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-ItwktHE3WcuR139 fEhYVz_TYly5lL7Llr0kkyIYKqnbdcH9YAmWjqN5DPLSVyvU5fUu_VXi6AI_wiSuWOgXycy311c$

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 101133
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located north of the northern Leeward Islands, and on
Subtropical Storm Karen, located over the north Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 111146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 121139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 131125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 161126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 162357
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 171138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible over the next several days while it moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the
Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the
Caribbean Sea much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is located well off the coast of
the Northeast United States. There is a slight chance that the
system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the
weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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